This is a good article (+1), but I disagree with the conclusions and I will elaborate and post it here:
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Here is the post in its entirety.
The article is missing the point of pricing in risk. One of the largest problems today in the ´market´ that is keeping things in the managed state, is that risk is not adequately priced in the financial instruments (various derivatives and derivations of derivatives with the assets market to fantasy and not marked to market as a basic example), so people and institutions are not able to correctly gauge the time value of money (capital not currency) in a more objective fashion. There are people and institutions taking enormous risks and receiving negative real returns based on interest rates. So the first solution proposed is not a real solution, rather it is moving the shell under another nut and the ´can is kicked down the road´ as people continue to believe (have confidence) in the system as they are getting fleeced through the mis-allocation of capital and many may not have their capital returned to them. Hence the eventual need for war to distract from the implosion.
Trade by definition will decrease war, as war is the ultimate in the mis-allocation of capital (WWII did not bring the U.S. or the World out of the Great Depression). War is always bodies (human capital) for land; where resources are used to destroy capital (structures, bodies, productive endeavors). The land has the resources whether it is the water, the oil, the gold, the rice, the castle, the women or the strategic value of the land itself, ad. infinitum. Capitalism only requires war if you do not allow the business that is not economically competitive (in relation to the customers) to die a natural death and go bankrupt or cease to operate because it is not profitable (allowing them to operate thusly is by definition, not capitalism). Otherwise it is greed and lust for power. Currently there is mal-investment as the capital is being mis-allocated and eventually the capital is being destroyed (to include capital being retired or taken out of service). Capital destruction is the root of the economic malaise today. The larger the war, the easier it is to mis-direct public attention; and the puppeteers continue the show.
When you study the transitions from one power (Empire) to another power (Empire) there is always a financial component (event before the 20th century when gold and silver were the commonly used). It was obviously so in with the transition from Britain to the U.S., it is so now with the transition from the U.S. to (I posit) China and it will be so when there is the transition (I posit) from China to ??? near the turn of the 22nd century.
These modern notions can be traced back to the reign of Queen Elizabeth I in the 16th century with her Prime Minister when they began to implement the notion of ¨most favored nation¨ concept with trade (not from 1971). You can also trace them back to the City States of Italy in the 14th century and the use of silver for a domestic trade and gold for international trade. What happened from 1330 - 1345 is a parallel to what is happening today. The puppet masters have played this show a number of times between the 14th and 21st centuries. It is regrettable that people are being awed by the variation on a theme once again.
The notion of economic growth being related to energy gain is an important concept that very few people discuss. In reality, it is the net energy cost (as well as net energy gain) that is critical as it takes energy to find or create energy. It is this surplus that is the key to the engine of economic growth. Short of breaking the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, this will be pivotal. Also it is the neo-liberal capitalism that requires war because it emphasizes a strong state and its intervention, not because of the laissez-faire capitalism and open markets. If this is de-emphasized, (I postulate that) the outcome would be different. This is why thread one of my five (now six) threads on geo-politics and monetary issues is energy.
I posit a four part solution.
1) Promote trade among nations, cultures.
2) Create machines/engines that are more efficient that reduce the (input) energy needed to increase (relative) energy output (moving towards a Carnot engine). These machines/engines include various forms of robotics, nano-machines, better carburetors, etc.
3) The advancement of Zero-point and Fusion types of energy devices (Carnot Engines that do not exist publically).
4) The movement of humans off world.
There is more but it gets deeper into economic philosophy, political philosophy and policy. Perhaps I will venture there as time goes by.