The below linked article is fairly long and detailed, and provides some description concerning how the two Fed Gov agents were caught in connection with extorting Silk Road money.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2016/...ot-caught/

Sure, it is prudent to take any of these kinds of quasi-official stories with a grain of salt - and surely, the portion about DPR actually ordering the assassination of another person is disturbing, if it is actually true - rather than just some made up shit - which I would not put it passed various govt officials to come up with such a fabricated story.

(08-18-2016 02:19 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  The below linked article is fairly long and detailed, and provides some description concerning how the two Fed Gov agents were caught in connection with extorting Silk Road money.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2016/...ot-caught/

Sure, it is prudent to take any of these kinds of quasi-official stories with a grain of salt - and surely, the portion about DPR actually ordering the assassination of another person is disturbing, if it is actually true - rather than just some made up shit - which I would not put it passed various govt officials to come up with such a fabricated story.

The link below is a little more discussion concerning the marginal effectiveness of mixing attempts.


https://www.scribd.com/document/32200473...n-20160821


In essence, maybe it is safest to assume that bitcoin is not very anonymous, except perhaps for the most technical users?

Ecuador's central bank is implementing electronic money:

Quote:The National Good Living Plan 2013-2017, as its objective number eight, indicates that the world economic system needs to renew its concept in order to prioritize equality within power relationships over economic growth and capital. This would allow the economic and social inclusion of millions of people, the strengthening of public finances, and the regulation of the economic system.

Within this framework, the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) develops new mechanisms that facilitate access to several financial services. Electronic Money is the electronic payment method, privatively managed by the BCE and denominated in US Dollars, in accordance with that which is set forth in the Fundamental Monetary and Financial Code, which is only exchanged through electronic, mobile, electromechanical and fixed devices, intelligent cards, computers and others, which are the product of technological advancement. (Resolution No.005-2014-M of the Monetary and Financial Policy and Regulation Board)

Additionally, it is a non-profit, low-cost and more secure service for the citizenry. Given that it is administered by the BCE, it avoids compatibility problems between different systems and monopolies, as has happened in certain places in the world. Digital technology is gaining ground in every area on a global level. The BCE works to make the technological advantages of the XXI century available to the entire citizenry.

-The system will allow for the making of payments in US Dollars through mobile phones, without the need for Internet, or an account at a financial entity.

-Electronic money will work as a payment method beyond the legal tender in circulation, and used with absolute trust by the entire citizenry, which may be exchanged at any moment for cash.

-Any citizen, regardless of their social and economic condition, may voluntarily open an electronic money account and access the system from any mobile phone device activated by authorized operators in the country.

-Citizens may use the Electronic Money System at all credit unions front offices, as well as those of other entities that form part of the popular and solidary system; of the financial system in general; non-banking correspondents such as neighborhood shops, supermarkets, phone booths, cyber-cafes; front offices at public sector institutions (IESS, BNF, Corporación Financiera Nacional, CNT, info-centers, National Post offices), shops such as distributors of basic products, of mass consumption, multilevel chains, technological product distributors; front offices where utility payments are made; among others.

Denominated in dollars, still administered by the central bank. Should be interesting to see how this turns out.

(08-27-2016 11:59 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  Ecuador's central bank is implementing electronic money:

Quote:The National Good Living Plan 2013-2017, as its objective number eight, indicates that the world economic system needs to renew its concept in order to prioritize equality within power relationships over economic growth and capital. This would allow the economic and social inclusion of millions of people, the strengthening of public finances, and the regulation of the economic system.

Within this framework, the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) develops new mechanisms that facilitate access to several financial services. Electronic Money is the electronic payment method, privatively managed by the BCE and denominated in US Dollars, in accordance with that which is set forth in the Fundamental Monetary and Financial Code, which is only exchanged through electronic, mobile, electromechanical and fixed devices, intelligent cards, computers and others, which are the product of technological advancement. (Resolution No.005-2014-M of the Monetary and Financial Policy and Regulation Board)

Additionally, it is a non-profit, low-cost and more secure service for the citizenry. Given that it is administered by the BCE, it avoids compatibility problems between different systems and monopolies, as has happened in certain places in the world. Digital technology is gaining ground in every area on a global level. The BCE works to make the technological advantages of the XXI century available to the entire citizenry.

-The system will allow for the making of payments in US Dollars through mobile phones, without the need for Internet, or an account at a financial entity.

-Electronic money will work as a payment method beyond the legal tender in circulation, and used with absolute trust by the entire citizenry, which may be exchanged at any moment for cash.

-Any citizen, regardless of their social and economic condition, may voluntarily open an electronic money account and access the system from any mobile phone device activated by authorized operators in the country.

-Citizens may use the Electronic Money System at all credit unions front offices, as well as those of other entities that form part of the popular and solidary system; of the financial system in general; non-banking correspondents such as neighborhood shops, supermarkets, phone booths, cyber-cafes; front offices at public sector institutions (IESS, BNF, Corporación Financiera Nacional, CNT, info-centers, National Post offices), shops such as distributors of basic products, of mass consumption, multilevel chains, technological product distributors; front offices where utility payments are made; among others.

Denominated in dollars, still administered by the central bank. Should be interesting to see how this turns out.

Seems a bit dumb to Peg a national currency to another nation's currency, yet I understand that practice is to attempt to inspire confidence in the currency, even though denominating in USD causes a certain control (of the USA) to control the value of venezuela's currency.

Very surprised not to see any peep out of JJG after this bump up from the 570's to the 610's... I've come to rely on the consistency of his posts come hell or high water, and I'm genuinely wondering if he's OK. I didn't think anything could stop him from posting here. As a data point: I've basically allocated the entire amount in BTC that I said I would invest when I first started to get serious. Now it's basically going to be waiting for a few milestones before I sell off anything.

Perfect world plan: sell off 15% at $20B total market cap, 25% at $50B market cap and then 40% at $250B market cap. Would keep 20% in reserve in the ludicrous case that it somehow skyrockets and matches gold's market cap at $7 Trillion, in which each BTC would be $400k each or something like that.

Of course I'm also prepared to lose everything (in my opinion almost as likely as it hitting Gold's market cap) or that it just languishes in a relatively tight band between $500-$1000 for many years.

(09-06-2016 09:55 PM)booshala Wrote:  Very surprised not to see any peep out of JJG after this bump up from the 570's to the 610's... I've come to rely on the consistency of his posts come hell or high water, and I'm genuinely wondering if he's OK. I didn't think anything could stop him from posting here. As a data point: I've basically allocated the entire amount in BTC that I said I would invest when I first started to get serious. Now it's basically going to be waiting for a few milestones before I sell off anything.

Perfect world plan: sell off 15% at $20B total market cap, 25% at $50B market cap and then 40% at $250B market cap. Would keep 20% in reserve in the ludicrous case that it somehow skyrockets and matches gold's market cap at $7 Trillion, in which each BTC would be $400k each or something like that.

Of course I'm also prepared to lose everything (in my opinion almost as likely as it hitting Gold's market cap) or that it just languishes in a relatively tight band between $500-$1000 for many years.

Actually, I have been traveling for a bit over a week, and for days at a time of that time, I did not have an internet connection. Other parts of the traveling, I had sporadic internet.

Actually, about 8 hours after the about 5% spike from lower $570s to lower $600s, I was able to see the spike and I noticed that several of my automatic trades were triggered. I could have made a little more money if I had been able to reset those trades earlier, but no big deal to me, since my trades are fairly small amounts and frequent intervals on several exchanges.

Regarding your longer term sell strategy, Booshala, that does sound decent and maybe even a similar optimism level as me. I continue to have an overall macro plan that is somewhat more solid and unchanging and various micro plans that I tweak along that way and in which I seem inclined towards continued tweaking with intentions to make sure that both the micro plans are adaptable in the event that some shorter term market conditions could change... but, yeah, you are likely correct in terms of having some kind of bullish longer term plan that is based on possible upward changes in bitcoin's market cap and to presume that bitcoin is not likely to go away soon and more likely to go up in value rather than down.

One currently unknown factor that I believe would be relevant regarding my own making adjustments to my investment plan would be the speed in which bitcoin moves in one direction or another, and I could foresee that in some circumstances (currently unknown), I may chose to make some adjustment to my BTC allocations based on short term events that could cause me to trade more in one direction or another in anticipation of short term happenings.

I'm kind of back, and been catching up on things, including bitcoin forum reading... Maybe I can even become annoying, again? hahahahaha


Below is a decent bullish article for anyone interested in our recent upward BTC price channel. In essence, there seems to be some kinds of consensus that support is decent at $600.. So, anyone shorting in the mid-$500s and placing stops in the mid-$600s may be soon regretting taking such positions, and may be advantaged to cus losses and to close such positions, if they have not done so, already.


http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoin-pri...s-to-hold/

Below is a link to another a fairly user-friendly development to include Circle in its discussion of Apple changes to imessage, and maybe even a tiny bit bullish in that it has the potential to easily expand bitcoin recipients to anyone who has an iphone?



Millions of Apple iMessage Users Will Now Be Able to Use Circle’s Bitcoin Payment System 

iMessageThe iOS 10 update will contain a newly designed iMessage service that will enable developers to bring third-party applications to the platform. The beta version of the iMessage app shows a handful of apps added to the texting service, along with music and GIF sharing abilities. Third-party platforms to be added include Square Cash, Lyft and Circle Pay.

https://news.bitcoin.com/imessage-featur...in-wallet/

(07-20-2016 03:37 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  I watched a 2015 documentary last night called "Bitcoin: The End of Money As We Know It".

It was short (~1 hour) and definitely biased in a positive way towards bitcoin, but still very informative, even to someone like myself who's pretty familiar with the technology.

It doesn't delve too much into the technical details, but explains things at a high, easily-understandable level. The beginning twenty minutes or so provide an abridged history of money itself, and I especially enjoyed the explanation of the modern day financial system and how fractional reserve banking works.

Definitely a great way to introduce friends or family to bitcoin, if they're unwilling to read a book like Digital Gold.

You can rent or buy the movie on Amazon, but it's easy enough to find a free version floating around online if you're so inclined.

Here's the trailer:

When I saw a description of the below book (The Curse of Cash), it reminded me of Isaac's earlier post in this thread - and the above video - which involves some description of the history of money.


https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/069117...767c9a5b07

I did not read the book, but surely it would be an interesting read for anyone interested in these areas and wanting to get some deeper insight/perspective into our current state of affairs in respect to money.

Interesting news from yesterday regarding Russia blocking localbitcoins.

http://www.coinfox.info/news/6399-localb...-in-russia

I think that we have already discussed several times in this thread the interesting back and forth that various governments take in response to bitcoin. Russia and China seem to be more direct than the the US Government in their attacks on bitcoin, and it seems that the US plays a more passive aggressive game in singling out individuals - but also, some come up with various conspiracy theories that the US government had been involved in inventing bitcoin, which seems to be quite on the deep end of looney - even though there is going to be plausibility in most quasi viable conspiracy theories.

A bit of upwards movement today from about $620 to $630, then a sudden crash into the $590s, and currently floating around $600.

Currently, I would characterize this as normal market corrections based on ongoing relatively low trade volume, but who knows how this matter is going to play out in the coming days/weeks?

It has been a bit exciting, for me so far, to have experienced some market movements that started from the $570s that started around September 4. Let's see how this plays out, any insights or perspectives regarding our current price situation would be interesting to hear.

The below linked PDF is fairly recently published (within the past few days), and it appears to come from a quasi-mainstream source - seeming to provide an investor's perspective from a latin american viewpoint (somewhat neutral, possibly?).

https://www.finextra.com/finextra-downlo...tander.pdf

Andreas Antonopoulos is one of a small handful of recognised experts on Bitcoin. He has been living off of that form of currency, exclusively, for a few years. I first heard him on The Joe Rogan Experience. These are very entry-level introductions to Bitcoin and more than enough to get me interested in putting 2% of my income into Bitcoin over the next year. Here are the videos, I suggest watching them here, or downloading the audio with something like https://youtubemultidownloader.com/index.html

I am posting these from the oldest to newest. The newest video is on top, it was recorded 4 days ago. Feel free to watch them all, even though they make it a point to go over the finer details of how to get started in each podcast.

I am also looking for any input from you on the Bitcoin exchanges and/or Bitcoin wallets that you use and worked best for you.

(09-12-2016 01:33 PM)Kwisatz Wrote:  Andreas Antonopoulos is one of a small handful of recognised experts on Bitcoin. He has been living off of that form of currency, exclusively, for a few years. I first heard him on The Joe Rogan Experience. These are very entry-level introductions to Bitcoin and more than enough to get me interested in putting 2% of my income into Bitcoin over the next year. Here are the videos, I suggest watching them here, or downloading the audio with something like https://youtubemultidownloader.com/index.html

I am posting these from the oldest to newest. The newest video is on top, it was recorded 4 days ago. Feel free to watch them all, even though they make it a point to go over the finer details of how to get started in each podcast.

I am also looking for any input from you on the Bitcoin exchanges and/or Bitcoin wallets that you use and worked best for you.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sOxtBiBpE4[/video]

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wwbzwUXfgc[/video]

[ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnhGlgCm4MU[/video]

[ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cexawnOlR8[/video]

What are the wallets and exchanges that you are using, currently? Have you started to buy bitcoin? Do you have a schedule? Did you perform a lump sum investment or are you just allocating 2% from now until next year?


Here's a link to my June 2016 post referring to which exchanges I was using at that time and a bit of a summary of my then experience with those listed exchanges.

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-21537...pid1324510

A little BTC price action in either direction could wake up a few dormant accounts? maybe?

In terms of overall bitcoin developments, however, we are not really hurt by price stability in this most recent $560 to $620 range.

If we look at bitcoin's recent price history.  We can recognize a downtrend in prices (after the late 2013 peak) between late 2013 until late 2014, then a kind of 8-10 month stability (with further tests of downward prices) for a large part of 2015 largely in the $225 to $275 range.   Then, the upward BTC prices came thereafter in early November 2015, with a short term upward breakout to $500.  

Then, between late 2015 and May 2016, largely stability of BTC prices in the $360 to $460 range for almost six months.  A fairly short-lived May/June 2016 breakout to upper $700s, and a fairly drawn out correction back into the lower $600 (for a bit more than 3 months, so far) that seems to have placed us in this current $560 to $620 range for about the past 2.5 months.

My sense is that the odds of BTC prices breaking to the upside remains a bit stronger than breaking to the downside, when we finally break out of this current price range.  

Sure there could be some violent BTC price moves involved with any upcoming surge in the near future, but violent price moves does not seem to be a precondition in terms of where BTC prices are at the moment. Nonetheless, it is quite possible that a year or two down the road, we may end up having BTC prices floating in the $1200 to $3000 range, and wonder why we did not buy more coins in the three digits?  

There do continue to exist some bears and bitcoin naysayers who believe our upcoming BTC price break is going to the downside from this current price range, but it still seems that price pressures and bitcoin developments are against such predictions - especially if the prediction makers really account for a variety of bitcoin fundamentals that continue to be positive.

So those of you bears and bitcoin naysayers who performed additional shorts in the mid to lower $500s, and waiting for downward BTC price movements, could get r3ckt...., unless you take some reconsideration actions.

This is my current thinking.. Any differing opinions?

^^ Are you using traditional stock charting methods for BTC when it comes to these predictions? Or some other sort of strategy?

(09-19-2016 05:52 PM)booshala Wrote:  ^^ Are you using traditional stock charting methods for BTC when it comes to these predictions? Or some other sort of strategy?

I am not using any king of technical analysis based on trading patterns or traditional training in stockmarket trading, and I am providing an assessment of bitcoin's prices based on my own watching of the history and my quasi-bullish viewpoint regarding bitcoin fundamentals, such as my understanding about what bitcoin is providing to the financial freedom space that seems to be different from anything that came before it - largely its abilities for immutable decentralized value storage and transmission of value in contrast to any threats that it may have regarding it's value, such as government regulation or financial institutions attempts at devaluing it.

I don't have any special training in price analysis, but I am still providing my opinion and inviting any RVF guy to provide his own analysis and conclusions whether such an analysis or conclusion(s) differ from mine or not.

Currently taking Antonopoulos' MOOC on digital currencies. Fun course so far.

(09-19-2016 09:37 PM)Peregrine Wrote:  Currently taking Antonopoulos' MOOC on digital currencies. Fun course so far.

Do you have a link?

I need to do more research to get familiar with it, but did do one transaction. I got what I felt was ripped for 4% using my debit card on Coinbase. What exchanges do you guys use?

(09-19-2016 08:52 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(09-19-2016 05:52 PM)booshala Wrote:  ^^ Are you using traditional stock charting methods for BTC when it comes to these predictions? Or some other sort of strategy?

I am not using any king of technical analysis based on trading patterns or traditional training in stockmarket trading, and I am providing an assessment of bitcoin's prices based on my own watching of the history and my quasi-bullish viewpoint regarding bitcoin fundamentals, such as my understanding about what bitcoin is providing to the financial freedom space that seems to be different from anything that came before it - largely its abilities for immutable decentralized value storage and transmission of value in contrast to any threats that it may have regarding it's value, such as government regulation or financial institutions attempts at devaluing it.

I don't have any special training in price analysis, but I am still providing my opinion and inviting any RVF guy to provide his own analysis and conclusions whether such an analysis or conclusion(s) differ from mine or not.

I asked if you were using technical analysis because your predictions seem largely in tune with a lot of other charting guys I know who talk about floors/ceilings/breakout points, etc... That and your many references to trading BTC at different prices. I'm not disparaging your process, although to me it seems incredibly arbitrary to buy/sell large amounts of BTC on what are essentially gut hunches. Maybe I'm missing something?

Not that I'm a proponent of charting as I don't use it at all for stocks or for BTC. I just have a holistic belief that BTC will be moderately to (hopefully) a lot more valuable in the long run than it is now, hence my buy and hold strategy. I have a similar approach to stocks as it's mostly stuff like JNJ, PM, NSRGY, HSY, RDS.B, etc - blue chip dividend yielding stocks.

(09-20-2016 02:05 AM)gameking7 Wrote:  I need to do more research to get familiar with it, but did do one transaction. I got what I felt was ripped for 4% using my debit card on Coinbase. What exchanges do you guys use?

Think you're always going to have to pay a premium for using a debit/credit card. At that point, you might as well use some sort of 2% cashback credit card or at least some sort of rewards card instead of debit so you can get something out of it.

Buddy clued me in that coinbase recently raised their buying fees - even for straight bank transfers - but there's a workaround: you can transfer your funds in your coinbase account to GDAX for free and then pay lower fees on GDAX for BTC purchases.

(09-20-2016 03:05 AM)booshala Wrote:  

(09-20-2016 02:05 AM)gameking7 Wrote:  I need to do more research to get familiar with it, but did do one transaction. I got what I felt was ripped for 4% using my debit card on Coinbase. What exchanges do you guys use?

Think you're always going to have to pay a premium for using a debit/credit card. At that point, you might as well use some sort of 2% cashback credit card or at least some sort of rewards card instead of debit so you can get something out of it.

Buddy clued me in that coinbase recently raised their buying fees - even for straight bank transfers - but there's a workaround: you can transfer your funds in your coinbase account to GDAX for free and then pay lower fees on GDAX for BTC purchases.

That's good news. Thanks for the tip. I will try that.

(09-20-2016 03:05 AM)booshala Wrote:  

(09-20-2016 02:05 AM)gameking7 Wrote:  I need to do more research to get familiar with it, but did do one transaction. I got what I felt was ripped for 4% using my debit card on Coinbase. What exchanges do you guys use?

Think you're always going to have to pay a premium for using a debit/credit card. At that point, you might as well use some sort of 2% cashback credit card or at least some sort of rewards card instead of debit so you can get something out of it.

Buddy clued me in that coinbase recently raised their buying fees - even for straight bank transfers - but there's a workaround: you can transfer your funds in your coinbase account to GDAX for free and then pay lower fees on GDAX for BTC purchases.

As Booshla indicated, there are various ways that fees may apply in terms of how you get your money to the exchange and then how you hold the money. Very few services charge fees to move bitcoins in and out, but the trick is getting the money in bitcoin in order to take advantage of such free movement of value (which can be risky and volatile to keep too much value in bitcoin)

In terms of the treatment of debit and credit cards on Coinbase and most other services, there can be considerable differences in fees, depending upon how you use it. For example, linking a debit card may allow for free transactions (but the timeline will vary from service to service), yet credit cards are almost always going to have a large number of fees which sometimes are not clear (may be hidden) until after you see the credit card statement. Credit cards are going to kill you on fees, yet debit cards could be reasonable (and possibly free).

Below is a fee related update to various exchanges that I currently use and from a post that I made in June: https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-21537...pid1324510

You may need to verify actual fees or if there are ways to use various aspects of the service with lower fees (and maybe let us know if you discover such).


1) Local bitcoins - People use this service generally as a means to trade directly. You can hold bitcoins here, but not dollars. Local bitcoins charges a 1% fee for any actual trade that goes through their service, yet people who trade here will charge a variety of premiums to trade bitcoin (usually in person but some ability to pay through bank accounts/transfers, too), usually at least a 3% to 5% premium on trades that go through the service, but sometimes, you may find bargains (which could be legit or an indication of some kind of scam or money laundering.. possibly?) People also use this service to make contacts and then to trade outside of the local bitcoins service.

2) BTC e - I do not send dollars to them, but there are ways to do so... which can vary depending on your location. Their fees are .2% for trading, once your money is there and you can hold your value in dollars, bitcoin or a variety of other crypto/fiat currencies.

3) a) Coinbase - They charge around a 1% fee. You can hold value in bitcoin or dollars, but you are not advantaged too much by converting, because I believe they charge the same 1% fee to convert back and forth.

3) b) GDAX. This service is connected to coinbase, and recently rebranded. Like booshla indicated you can transfer some dollars here for free, and even though it may not be immediate, there are ways to do it for free. You can hold your value in dollars, bitcoin, ether or litecoin. maker fees to trade are free, but taker fees are .25%. a maker fee is setting up the trade ahead of time, and a taker fee is conducting a market price buy/sell.

4) Blockchain - This is an example of a bitcoin wallet that is in the cloud. Once you have a bitcoin wallet, then you could easily trade directly with people for free and with whatever premium you agree to attach to the transaction. There are a variety of bitcoin wallets, and they only allow you to hold value in bitcoins (and some allow you to hold value in other crypto currencies), not dollars.

5) Circle - They do not charge fees for buying and selling; however, their price is usually around 1% higher than market rate, but that difference will also vary from time to time. They also have various limits $3,000 per week for buying, and selling is unlimited but to me it seems that they change their sell rate if you go over a certain amount per week (maybe it is $3,000 for the same rate, and then they change the rate once you go over $3,000? They used to have a $3,000 per week sell limit).

6) Uphold - I used to buy and sell bitcoin's here for free, but they recently changed their policy and most USD/BTC trades are .4%. You can transfer dollars in and out for free up to a weekly limit of $3,000. You can hold your value in a vast array of currencies, but the trading fees may vary, depending on the currency.

7) Gemini - You can send and receive up to $2,500 per week in free ACH transfers, and their trading fees vary between .15% and .25%. You can hold your value in bitcoin, dollars or ether. instant ability to use the transferred funds to buy BTC which can cause some good

8) Bitstamp - I do not send dollars to them, but there are ways to send to them and various fees for such. Their trading fees are .25% You can hold value in bitcoin or dollars.

9) Bitfinex - I do not send dollars to them, but there are ways to send to them and various fees for such. Their trading fees are .1% maker fees and .2% taker fees. You can hold value in bitcoin, ether, litecoin, ethereum classic or dollars.

(09-20-2016 03:02 AM)booshala Wrote:  

(09-19-2016 08:52 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(09-19-2016 05:52 PM)booshala Wrote:  ^^ Are you using traditional stock charting methods for BTC when it comes to these predictions? Or some other sort of strategy?

I am not using any king of technical analysis based on trading patterns or traditional training in stockmarket trading, and I am providing an assessment of bitcoin's prices based on my own watching of the history and my quasi-bullish viewpoint regarding bitcoin fundamentals, such as my understanding about what bitcoin is providing to the financial freedom space that seems to be different from anything that came before it - largely its abilities for immutable decentralized value storage and transmission of value in contrast to any threats that it may have regarding it's value, such as government regulation or financial institutions attempts at devaluing it.

I don't have any special training in price analysis, but I am still providing my opinion and inviting any RVF guy to provide his own analysis and conclusions whether such an analysis or conclusion(s) differ from mine or not.

I asked if you were using technical analysis because your predictions seem largely in tune with a lot of other charting guys I know who talk about floors/ceilings/breakout points, etc...

Probably my language overlaps to some degree because some of the language tends to be easier ways to describe what is going on, and of course, I read various technical analysis from time to time, so some of the language likely seeps into my ways of expressing the matters.

At certain point, there is some truth in some of the market dynamics and to what a lot of folks are saying.... for example, if there have been several attempts to break the price below or above a certain point, then that point can be referred to as support on the bottom and resistance on the top, and once the price breaks through those points, then frequently support can become resistance and resistance can become support. These dynamics are not for sure going to happen, but they are probablistic, and will be perceived of as more or less probable depending on other market dynamics, history and even trade volume.

I frequently attempt to make clear that I am talking about probabilities from my own viewpoint at the time that I am writing, but surely market dynamics can change my viewpoint, even a short period after I had written the post... so for example, if I am asserting that I believe that there is a 60% chance prices are going above $615 and a 40% chance that prices are going below $600, and 20 minutes later the price breaks below $600, then I am going to have to reassess the situation, and such a price movement could significantly alter my then current assessment of the situation. I am not attempting to assert that my viewpoint is any better than anyone else, and surely I find it interesting to read assessments that vary from mine, especially if they are accounting for the same facts that I am accounting for a seem to be giving fair weight to such similar facts.. but end up with differing conclusions.

(09-20-2016 03:02 AM)booshala Wrote:  That and your many references to trading BTC at different prices.

In the end, I have staggered my bets up and down on the various exchanges in which I trade, so I don't really care a lot which way price goes. I buy on the way down and sell on the way up, and of course in the long term I am hoping and anticipating that prices are going to go up (so accordingly, my trades and my staggering of my bets (quantity traded) is intended to result in continuing accumulation of bitcoin - which so far has been successful for me)

(09-20-2016 03:02 AM)booshala Wrote:  I'm not disparaging your process, although to me it seems incredibly arbitrary to buy/sell large amounts of BTC on what are essentially gut hunches. Maybe I'm missing something?

I am kind of against buying large amounts of BTC, and mostly I advocate staggering bets. I know that a lot of guys are inclined to buy and sell in large quantities in an attempt to predict whether the price is going up or down, and certainly that is understandable yet I have not been advocating that methodology for myself or for anyone else.

I certainly accept that guys have differing viewpoints, and there are certainly ways to make the "balls to the walls" methods pay off better than my staggering method, and so I have no problem going back and forth with guys who want to advocate one method or another under differing circumstances. Of course, I may also choose to vary my method a bit under circumstances in which I might come to a strong belief that the market is soon moving in one direction or another, so in such circumstances, I may buy or sell in large quantities in order to bet on the predicted direction.

I also understand that the situation for guys who have already established a bitcoin position would likely be considerably different from guys who are new to bitcoin and are in the initial stages of establishing some kind of bitcoin position. The strategy might be different in order to take the initial stake in bitcoin. For me, I largely established a fairly decent holding in bitcoin (comfortable to my own circumstances) throughout 2014. By the end of 2014, I had pretty much established my btc position, and so after that I have been tweaking and reapportioning my BTC holdings, so after 2014 I did not feel that I was still in the stages of initial BTC accumulation, which was largely my situation in 2014.

(09-20-2016 03:02 AM)booshala Wrote:  Not that I'm a proponent of charting as I don't use it at all for stocks or for BTC. I just have a holistic belief that BTC will be moderately to (hopefully) a lot more valuable in the long run than it is now, hence my buy and hold strategy.

I believe that my viewpoint is the same regarding bitcoin likely to go up in the long run.. .and potentially even to exponentially and explosively go up at some unexpected time. Therefore, I did buying and holding throughout 2014 and even continued with such strategy through 2015. Even though it may sound as if I am selling large amounts of bitcoin as the price goes up, in the end, I am only selling small portions of my total BTC holdings. More or less, around mid 2015, I decided to tweak my strategy and to begin trading in order to better protect my BTC holdings for periods in which the price goes down (then I can buy more BTC).

Even though I understand that bitcoin could experience explosive upwards price growth and never to return to lower price levels, I am willing to take that risk by selling small portions of my bitcoin holdings on the way up. I personally have come to some kinds of conclusions that bitcoin prices are going to continue to be manipulated at various price points, and really I am not sure whether prices will shoot up to the $3k to $5k territory, or be manipulated in the $300 to $700 price territory for another year or two or even longer. I attempt to prepare for any of those scenarios or some other variation, and in the end, I believe that it is more likely that with a relatively small market cap, bitcoin is likely to continue to experience a considerable amount of price manipulation.... while continuing to feel upwards price pressures so long as adoption and development continues (which really seems to be the case at this time).

(09-20-2016 03:02 AM)booshala Wrote:  I have a similar approach to stocks as it's mostly stuff like JNJ, PM, NSRGY, HSY, RDS.B, etc - blue chip dividend yielding stocks.

I agree that you could take similar approaches to all of your investments, and employ dollar cost averaging accumulation, and that is not a bad overall approach.

I also think that we do need to consider bitcoin a bit differently from other assets and stocks because some of the dynamics are different in terms of how it can be traded, fees that can be applied to trades and ways in which you can personally control the way that you hold and transfer the location of the asset.

Also, bitcoin is a bit of a different beast that has never been seen by the world before... yeah, right, each company is a different beast, too, but companies tend to be centrally controlled in one way or another or to one degree or another. Even though some folks try to disparage bitcoin and attempt to assert that it is has some central controls, such as core and blockstream, but in the end, those claims seem to be more exaggerated bullshit and seem also to be attempts at false equivalencies, and various values of bitcoin continue to remain that it is not centrally controlled and some of the proclaimed deficiencies, such as inefficiencies and difficulties to change are features rather than bugs in terms of it's likely ongoing future growth... and part of my point is that bitcoin is different than stocks, and sure you can employ some similar investment strategies, but you may also want to consider ways to vary your bitcoin investment strategy a little bit in order to prepare yourself somewhat better for some of it's unique attributes.... .and I tend to think at least a small amount of trading and setting up systems for trading can be more useful in a bitcoin portfolio as compared with some of the various traditional stock holding possibilities.