Forum home · Lifestyle · search

The Bitcoin thread

📄 Rendered from the archive database (the original static capture of this page wasn't kept). Content is complete; styling is simplified.
Pages: 1 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 200
JayJuanGee · 2016-09-20 13:50:00 · #3007
Here are a couple of links of BTC related information that I read last night:


1) https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...w_5000day/

I personally believe that bitcoin prices are in a position of being manipulated in either direction, especially when trade volume is low, yet unless you happen to be a whale, you cannot really be sure about whether you would be capable of manipulating the price in either direction until you give it a shot. I am sure that sometimes whales wait for low trade volume periods in order to attempt to manipulate bitcoin prices in the direction that they desire, but they may not be confident regarding whether they are going to be successful in such price manipulation until they try it.. yet at the same time, I would bet that the odds of their being successful in their desired direction become greater and greater the lower that the trade volume goes down.. and if they can beat to the punch a competitor whale that may be hoping to manipulate in the opposite price direction.




2)

http://bitcoinist.net/bumpy-ride-bears-bitcoin-price/


There is some decent analysis in this article based on some of the technicals, and personally, I take any technical assessment with a grain of salt - even though I may agree with some of it's conclusions. For example, I may consider that we are in a certain kind of price channel based on how long BTC prices have floated in a certain price arena and have been tested in one direction or another... and now, overall I consider price pressures to be stronger in the up direction rather than in the down direction, and if prices break past mid $800s, then we are likely to experience price movement into the $3k to $5k territory... however, I also think that we have a long way to go before we even make it to the mid $800s, so prices could end up breaking down at any time before reaching the mid-$800s, and also if prices were to go to mid-$800s too quickly, then there may not be enough support to propel them into the $3k to $5k territory, so we could end up correcting back down, even though technically, prices achieve the mid-$800s point.

Anyhow, it doesn't hurt to read these various kinds of technical assessments and to consider them in terms of how probable are the scenarios that are described therein, and consider whether any such analysis will tweak your own analysis of probabilities of price movement in either direction.
Isaac Jordan · 2016-09-21 10:45:00 · #3008
Federal Judge Rules Bitcoin is Money in US Trial

Quote:A federal judge in New York has ruled that bitcoin constitutes a form of money.

The ruling comes from the ongoing case involving the now-defunct Florida bitcoin exchange Coin.mx and one of its former operators, Anthony Murgio.

Murgio, who was indicted on alleged money laundering charges in July of last year, had sought to dismiss two of the charges against him in part by arguing that bitcoins don't count as "funds" in the context of US law.

According to Reuters, Judge Alison Nathan of the Southern District Court of New York rejected that bid, writing that bitcoin is money by virtue of how it is used.

Nathan wrote in her ruling:

"Bitcoins are funds within the plain meaning of that term. Bitcoins can be accepted as a payment for goods and services or bought directly from an exchange with a bank account. They therefore function as pecuniary resources and are used as a medium of exchange and a means of payment."

The ruling comes on the heels of a court decision in Florida in which a Miami judge ruled that, according to state statutes, bitcoin doesn’t qualify as a form of money. That decision sparked debate amongst observers and has sparked renewed effort in the state legislature to develop regulations around the digital currency.

The Coin.mx case is connected to a broader investigation by the US government into an alleged cybercrime ring tied to a series of hacks on major companies and financial institutions, including Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase. According to prosecutors, Coin.mx was used as a conduit for laundering proceeds from the purported operation.
JayJuanGee · 2016-09-24 14:03:00 · #3009
The below-linked article is fairly bullish about bitcoin in the short term (next several months) and medium term (next several years).


http://moneymorning.com/2016/09/23/why-t...mp-to-848/

By the way, I found that you do not necessarily need to enter in your e-mail information in order to read the whole article, you can just refresh your browser page each time that it prompts you to enter in your e-mail address.
pants · 2016-09-26 12:53:00 · #3010
i am all fiat now.

Needed the cash, cause i bought an apartment.
Bought 31 BTC for 1000 USD.

Bought some shit, and had 17 BTC left which i sold off today for 10 000 USD.

I'll buy back in when my finances are a bit stronger.

I forgot my bitcoin wallet password. Lucky i kept an offline cold copy.
Always keep a backup if its some big cash.
booshala · 2016-09-26 14:34:00 · #3011
(09-26-2016 12:53 PM)pants Wrote:  i am all fiat now.

Needed the cash, cause i bought an apartment.
Bought 31 BTC for 1000 USD.

Bought some shit, and had 17 BTC left which i sold off today for 10 000 USD.

I'll buy back in when my finances are a bit stronger.

I forgot my bitcoin wallet password. Lucky i kept an offline cold copy.
Always keep a backup if its some big cash.

Good for you, looks like you made out like a champ.
JayJuanGee · 2016-09-26 14:55:00 · #3012
(09-26-2016 12:53 PM)pants Wrote:  i am all fiat now.

Needed the cash, cause i bought an apartment.
Bought 31 BTC for 1000 USD.

Bought some shit, and had 17 BTC left which i sold off today for 10 000 USD.

I'll buy back in when my finances are a bit stronger.

I forgot my bitcoin wallet password. Lucky i kept an offline cold copy.
Always keep a backup if its some big cash.

Hey Pants. Nice to see your post.

I am a little surprised by your description of your personal BTC investment story because you were at least knowledgeably sharing information about bitcoin in early 2013 (as evidenced by your posts in this thread)... as compared with me, and I only got involved in about November 2013, in part inspired by various Bitcoin discussions in this thread.


Well that is too bad that you were not able to sell your BTC at a profit or at least to hang on to some of your bitcoin holding for a longer term, but in the end, each of us has to make decisions regarding how many resources to allocate towards BTC or other investments that we may consider, and certainly it seems to be taking quite a while for bitcoin to come up in price - even to where it is now, and the future direction of BTC prices still seems somewhat uncertain, even though to me, based on various BTC fundamentals, it does seem that we have pretty decent odds for upwards movement in BTC prices in the coming year or two (if not sooner).

At least, it is better that you were able to sell in the $600 price territory, rather than in the mid-to-lower $200s in a large part of 2015.

I already told part of my story regarding personal turmoils in early 2015 that came in my direction during my bitcoin investing, and it likely bears repeating.

In early 2015, I had some personal financial issues that were largely related to a business that i have (and not bitcoin related) and because of those personal financial issues, I could not buy any more BTC for nearly 3 months (mostly between January 2015 and March 2015, but even my buying of BTC in April, May and June 2015 was pretty sparse (as compared with what I had been doing earlier), based on my personal financial circumstances. I also did not sell any BTC during that early 2015 time frame, because I had resolved to invest in BTC for a longer term, and I really did not plan on selling any while prices were down or if my sales were not profitable. Sure, at some point, I may have changed my exit strategy, but largely, I considered my BTC investment to be potentially throw away money that I would continue to buy as the price went down and sell only if the price were to go up. Coincidentally, in early 2015, BTC prices were at their low point (relative to the previous year and a half and even subsequent prices to date), mostly in the lower $200s.

Anyhow, starting really slowly in April 2015 (a few months after I stopped buying) I was able to resume buying BTC. I started out very slowly when I resumed and made only a few purchases of BTC in April, May and June 2015, and using dollar cost average methodology to continue to invest in BTC while prices were relatively low (and therefore ultimately continue to bring down my average cost per BTC).

Regarding forgetting your password, that certainly seems to be an ongoing systemic risk with something like bitcoin. I have various systems in place to remember a variety of my passwords, but still, when you have extend periods of storage and non-use, then the risk of forgetting information or losing access increases. So, yeah, the theory of bitcoin potentially being a "store it and forget it" asset seems to be challenging.. and then if death or illness comes, how do your heirs get access to to your value? I think that we are going to continue to hear a lot of stories about these kinds of loss of access to large sums of bitcoin value.


Edit: Woops. After seeing Booshla's response, I see that I misread and misunderstood your BTC investment, and I see that you sold your BTC at a profit, which seems to have been an average cost per bitcoin of about $32. So, yeah, I agree with Booshla, you seemed to have done very well with your BTC investment. I otherwise stand by the comments of my above post to the extent that they are not misunderstanding your particular facts, Pants.
JayJuanGee · 2016-09-27 19:29:00 · #3013
I watched the below linked video presentation titled Bitcoin, Brexit and The big decentralisation trend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IagNESpFd7o

It seems that the guy gives a very decent one hour bullish overview concerning the present and future value of bitcoin, and maybe even wonder if he is trying to sell bitcoin on folks.. hahahaha
JayJuanGee · 2016-09-27 19:34:00 · #3014
JayJuanGee · 2016-09-27 19:41:00 · #3015
(09-27-2016 07:34 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  The below linked article, from yesterday, describes some recent successful testing of the lightning network by Bitfury.


https:[email protected]/bitfury....l6yeji8rk


Meeting notes from 9/22/16 seem to show that Seg wit is getting closer and closer to going live.

From these notes, apparently version 0.13.0 went live on 8/23/16, and seg wit support is likely going to be contained within version 0.13.1
JayJuanGee · 2016-09-27 19:51:00 · #3016
Continued crashing of deutsche bank could also affect market turmoils in the coming days. A question may remain regarding which asset classes are going to be affected by such happenings in the financial world?


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-27...cord-highs
SunW · 2016-09-28 06:41:00 · #3017
(09-26-2016 12:53 PM)pants Wrote:  i am all fiat now.

Needed the cash, cause i bought an apartment.
Bought 31 BTC for 1000 USD.

Bought some shit, and had 17 BTC left which i sold off today for 10 000 USD.

I'll buy back in when my finances are a bit stronger.

I forgot my bitcoin wallet password. Lucky i kept an offline cold copy.
Always keep a backup if its some big cash.

Good stuff. Anyone here have experience with paper wallets?
DaveR · 2016-09-28 08:04:00 · #3018
(09-28-2016 06:41 AM)SunW Wrote:  
(09-26-2016 12:53 PM)pants Wrote:  i am all fiat now.

Needed the cash, cause i bought an apartment.
Bought 31 BTC for 1000 USD.

Bought some shit, and had 17 BTC left which i sold off today for 10 000 USD.

I'll buy back in when my finances are a bit stronger.

I forgot my bitcoin wallet password. Lucky i kept an offline cold copy.
Always keep a backup if its some big cash.

Good stuff. Anyone here have experience with paper wallets?

Armory's fragmented paper backup scheme is a good option. It uses a Shamir* 2 of 3 scheme, so there will be three fragments and you need at least two of them to restore your wallet. You can also use 3 of 5, 3 of 6, or any other combination.
* in case anyone is interested, the math behind this backup scheme is very sold: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shamir%27s_Secret_Sharing

Keep one fragment yourself, give one copy to a close friend for safe keeping and the third to another friend or relative. Remember that two fragments will provide full access to your wallet, so it's best if the two trusted people don't know each other and also don't know where you keep your fragment of the wallet.

The scheme is resistant to fire/theft/loss, and a single fragment is useless to law enforcement, so you can keep your copy in a bank safe without any risk.

If you're in the US or UK, try to avoid discussing your paper backups via electronic channels, because there are issues with civil forfeiture in those countries. Basically, Police can confiscate cash and cash derivatives if they think it may be related to a crime, and it's your problem to prove otherwise. Because of that, it's important to keep the location of your backup fragments secret. As a last resort, use something secure like Wire, Telegram secret chats, or Signal messenger if you need to discuss it with your trusted people.


If you have a high-value wallet, you should use Armory's cold storage scheme as well. You'll need an offline computer (maybe an old laptop) to generate your wallet, export a watching-only version of it to a USB stick, and print paper backups. Then you're supposed to keep that computer completely offline - the only connection to the outside world should be via USB stick. If you're worried about viruses, you can use USB sticks with write-only switches or use QR codes to completely isolate it.
This explains how it works: https://www.bitcoinarmory.com/tutorials/...ne-wallet/
JayJuanGee · 2016-09-28 13:06:00 · #3019
(09-28-2016 08:04 AM)DaveR Wrote:  
(09-28-2016 06:41 AM)SunW Wrote:  
(09-26-2016 12:53 PM)pants Wrote:  i am all fiat now.

Needed the cash, cause i bought an apartment.
Bought 31 BTC for 1000 USD.

Bought some shit, and had 17 BTC left which i sold off today for 10 000 USD.

I'll buy back in when my finances are a bit stronger.

I forgot my bitcoin wallet password. Lucky i kept an offline cold copy.
Always keep a backup if its some big cash.

Good stuff. Anyone here have experience with paper wallets?

Armory's fragmented paper backup scheme is a good option. It uses a Shamir* 2 of 3 scheme, so there will be three fragments and you need at least two of them to restore your wallet. You can also use 3 of 5, 3 of 6, or any other combination.
* in case anyone is interested, the math behind this backup scheme is very sold: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shamir%27s_Secret_Sharing

Keep one fragment yourself, give one copy to a close friend for safe keeping and the third to another friend or relative. Remember that two fragments will provide full access to your wallet, so it's best if the two trusted people don't know each other and also don't know where you keep your fragment of the wallet.

The scheme is resistant to fire/theft/loss, and a single fragment is useless to law enforcement, so you can keep your copy in a bank safe without any risk.

If you're in the US or UK, try to avoid discussing your paper backups via electronic channels, because there are issues with civil forfeiture in those countries. Basically, Police can confiscate cash and cash derivatives if they think it may be related to a crime, and it's your problem to prove otherwise. Because of that, it's important to keep the location of your backup fragments secret. As a last resort, use something secure like Wire, Telegram secret chats, or Signal messenger if you need to discuss it with your trusted people.


If you have a high-value wallet, you should use Armory's cold storage scheme as well. You'll need an offline computer (maybe an old laptop) to generate your wallet, export a watching-only version of it to a USB stick, and print paper backups. Then you're supposed to keep that computer completely offline - the only connection to the outside world should be via USB stick. If you're worried about viruses, you can use USB sticks with write-only switches or use QR codes to completely isolate it.
This explains how it works: https://www.bitcoinarmory.com/tutorials/...ne-wallet/

Thanks for the information and the links, DaveR.


I am not fighting the idea of personal safe keeping; however, I question, to some extent, the real world application.

Sure, the two out of three fragmented pieces is like having partial combination to a safe, and access to the funds and the value of such is going to be most important to the person who holds the money. Tell your "trusted" person to safeguard, and maybe they will, and maybe they are going to also have difficulties figuring out the matter, once you pass, for example.

As may be noted by my comments, I have not yet attempted to use such a 2/3 fragmented system - yet, in reflecting upon the idea, I kind of like the idea of 2 out of 4, and I would keep two, and then two other "trusted" persons would have the other two. One thing is considering the matter, and another thing is putting it to use in a practical manner that would cause a guy to tailor the access to his own situation and view of adequate safeguarding of his interests regarding the funds.
DaveR · 2016-09-28 14:26:00 · #3020
There are countless applications and configurations for fragmented wallets (and storage of other encrypted information with Shamir's secret sharing).

The legality of bitcoin is still very grey in many countries - is it a bearer instrument? What happens when you cross a border with it in your possession? Are you required to declare it? Another issue is that if you have the ability to unlock a wallet, a court could order you to do so (e.g. in the UK, courts can compel defendants to reveal passwords). With those points in mind, it may be better that you don't have access without the involvement of another person, possibly a lawyer or someone in another jurisdiction not subject to court orders issued in your country.

If you do plan to keep the required minimum number of fragments in your possession, how will you ensure that others don't get copies?

It's an incredibly powerful tool, but it opens a minefield of questions too.
JayJuanGee · 2016-09-28 17:14:00 · #3021
(09-27-2016 07:29 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I watched the below linked video presentation titled Bitcoin, Brexit and The big decentralisation trend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IagNESpFd7o

It seems that the guy gives a very decent one hour bullish overview concerning the present and future value of bitcoin, and maybe even wonder if he is trying to sell bitcoin on folks.. hahahaha


To some extent,the below-linked article relates to my above post concerning future bullishness of bitcoin.


http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/business/a...-singapore

In essence, this article mentions bitcoin and is talking about the future of financial tech, suggesting that asian locations, such as singapore and hong kong could be advantaged with a losing status of London, in part based on Brexit and other possible failures to innovate.
JayJuanGee · 2016-09-30 10:24:00 · #3022
Below is a link to a bullish prediction, anticipating a BTC price break to the upside in the near future.

I take all short term BTC price predictions with a grain of salt.


http://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoin-pri...-breakout/
JayJuanGee · 2016-09-30 13:11:00 · #3023
I saw the below thread today while I was waiting in line at the bank, and I noticed that some of the folks are really emotionally attached in one direction or another regarding how bitfinex is going about its attempt to deal with it's early August 2016 "hack."

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...fx_tokens/

So, in essence, in mid-August 2016, bitfinex gave tokens that they deemed valued at $1 per token (BFX coins), and gave a 36% haircut to all of their then customers and by calculating the balances of all of the funds that their customers were holding on Bitfinex. All Bitfinex account holders received BFX tokens in the equivalent of 36% of the August 2, 2016 value that they were then holding on Bitfinex.

Even though the supposed "hack" only involved their bitcoin assets, Bitfinex decided to spread out and to "socialize" the loss, which pissed off quite a few folks, and others considered the approach as being innovative regarding other options available to Bitfinex. Also, if we look back at the situation, there were a lot of folks who were given really dismal odds to bitfinex even reopening after the supposed "hack", and questioning whether any of the funds would be returned.

We certainly don't know al the facts of the hacks nor all the options available, but bitfinex's approach has been a bit outside of normal approaches, and surely, some folks continue to question whether bitfinex is on the up and up or if they are just engaging in continuing scam attempts in their future approach to this matter.

Bitfinex also claims that they are continuing to investigate the matter, and they are also communicating the creation of other equity buy in options for folks who hold some of their BFX coins.

When Bitfinex first opened back up in mid August 2016, the BFX tokens fluctuated in value largely between $.20 and $.40; however, by September 1, 2016, when Bitfinex redeemed 1.1812% of the BFX coins at full $1 value, the price of BFX tokens increased to float largely between $.50 and $.60. So again today, Bitfinex engaged in another $1 redemption of 1.3152% of the outstanding BFX coins at full $1 value.

Yeah, sure, we can consider Bitfinex as potentially corrupt and potentially engaging in an ongoing scam, but they also have a reasonable story, and surely your perception of the matter and your approach may vary depending on whether you have some BFX coins with them and if you sold your coins earlier or if you took some other approach in which you are still holding BFX coins.

I personally held some value on Bitfinex on August 2, and I received the 36% haircut of what I was then holding on the exchange. As a USA resident, Bitfinex has allowed these folks to sell BFX tokens, but not to buy BFX tokes. Accordingly, I had decided to begin selling in small increments starting at about $.39, and accordingly, so far I have sold about 17% of my total BFX coin holdings at about an average price of $.58 (which includes the two 100% payouts that amount to a bit over 2% of my holdings).

Even though I have structured my incremental selling of BFX coins, I have my doubts about whether I am going to receive close to my lost amount, but in the end, I still consider this Bitfinex approach to be interesting and creative and the situation could have turned out much worse.
Isaac Jordan · 2016-09-30 13:46:00 · #3024
Would a Deutsche Bank Collapse Impact Bitcoin Prices?

Quote:The pressure is building for Deutsche Bank.

Germany's largest and most financially leveraged bank continues to see its stock price languish as other firms distance themselves from the beleaguered financial institution.

Indications that the bank may pay billions of dollars to the US government in order to settle charges related to mortgage lending practices have sent markets reeling amidst an environment already on the edge.

Should the bank fail, it could have devastating implications for the financial services industry.

And, since market participants have often flocked to bitcoin in times of market distress, turmoil of this magnitude could prove highly bullish for the digital currency.

"The capital markets have awakened to bitcoin as a disaster hedge," analyst Chris Burniske told CoinDesk. The digital currency doesn’t correlate with other asset classes, an aspect that may make it more attractive in times of uncertainty, said Burniske, blockchain products lead for investment manager ARK Invest.

"Depending on how people feel about Deutsche Bank's future prospects, they may choose to hedge themselves from the more traditional markets by using bitcoin," he went on to say.

Potential bailout

Safe haven assets like bitcoin may come in handy soon enough, as Deutsche Bank's rapidly deteriorating situation has many wondering whether the financial institution will need a bailout from the German government or the European Central Bank.

The company has been been on rocky ground for some time, and if they don’t do something to fix it, Deutsche Bank could go belly up, economist Chris Martenson told CoinDesk.

"The DOJ is coming after them for $14b, and if they pay even $3b or $4b, it will still be too much for them to bear," he said.

While securing a bailout may prove unpopular, the political pressure to make this happen could be enormous. Discussions involving the possibility of a obtaining such financial assistance intensified on 29th September, when certain hedge funds cut their derivatives exposure to Deutsche Bank and the major financial institution’s shares fell more than 6.5%, CNBC reported.

Deutsche Bank would go on to release a statement assuring global market participants of its financial stability, but the numbers remain a grim reminder about the hurdles the bank faces.

It has roughly $16b in equity compared to $160b in debt, according to a separate CNBC report. Company shares have dropped upwards of 70% since July 2015, falling from a highly of roughly $35 to approximately $11.50 on September 29, Google Finance data reveals.

Possible ‘global contagion’

Should the organization’s financial position continue to deteriorate, a failure to secure a bailout could "spark global contagion," stated Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of leveraged bitcoin trading platform BitMEX. More specifically, a situation of unchecked financial weakness could result in numerous consequences, including depositor flight and the collapse of credit lines, he told CoinDesk.

Deutsche Bank is the largest derivatives counterparty in the world. The financial institution has been offloading some of these contracts, selling roughly two-thirds of a portfolio of uncleared credit default swaps.

Because Deutsche Bank has derivatives contracts with so many institutions, any bank it owes money to will be affected, noted Hayes. While the magnitude of the fallout from Deutsche Bank’s failure remains unknown until it happens, contagion could result in central banks around the world being forces to shore up vulnerable financial institutions.

Market expert Petar Zivkovksi told CoinDesk that, should Deutsche Bank fail, it could impact “dozens of systemically important banks around Europe and the globe.” He also spoke to the key role played by the DOJ fine, emphasizing that the final amount Deutsche Bank would pay was thus far undetermined.

"The US justice department fine tipped the situation into a crisis, although recent news indicates that fine may be reduced to allow Deutsche Bank to find a way to restructure and save itself," said Zivkovksi, director of operations for leveraged bitcoin trading platform Whaleclub, highlighting the reluctance thus far of the German government to step in.

Impact on bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price and volatility could be impacted by the Deutsche Bank situation, depending on how the situation plays out – and how markets react accordingly.

Volatility was been very low in September, with The BitMEX 30 day Historical Volatility Index measuring 24.72% during the first 29 days of the month, down from 49.97% in August and 69.42% in July.

"Bitcoin prices may be impacted as the situation unfolds, but I believe only an extremely negative resolution, such as a domino-effect euro bank failure, could bring high volatility back to BTC prices," Zivkovski speculated, adding that it would take an extreme case scenario to spark a major flight to cryptocurrencies.

“The world is not quite ready yet to pour large amounts into cryptocurrencies in times of fiat distress," he added.

Hayes offered a different point of view, asserting that central banks will engage in robust money printing whether Deutsche Bank receives a bailout or not.

Any such money printing will provide tailwinds for bitcoin and “result in more financial repression as central banks once again must prevent assets from fleeing the banking system", he said – a situation that might ultimately favor currencies like bitcoin.
JayJuanGee · 2016-10-03 11:42:00 · #3025
Here are a couple of interesting links:

a bit of a historical perspective, and a few war stories.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...t_how_far/


If you guys recall, naughty america had gotten quite a bit of coverage in the bitcoin space in mid-2014 when they began to take bitcoin ( described in this article)

Now they are exploring ways to protect their property rights by uses of blockchain.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/10/03/naught...nt-piracy/
JayJuanGee · 2016-10-03 22:50:00 · #3026
The below 16 minute TED talk regarding the future of money was fairly basic and interesting, and it discusses bitcoin during the second half.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...ha_narula/
Isaac Jordan · 2016-10-05 17:46:00 · #3027
This article is old (from 2013), but you gotta love a guy who's bullish on Bitcoin AND incorporates the red pill metaphor.

Why I Invested In Bitcoin

Quote:The weeks of speculation about whether JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon would be forced to give up one of his titles has ended. I didn't take a side in the battle, if only because I couldn't get beyond the threshold questions: "Why does anyone even care, and why do we believe we are still beholden to people like this?"

Since the 2008 financial crisis, we have seen a massive decline in trust in the financial services industry: Lehman Brother, Bear Stearns, American International Group, the "London Whale," Cyprus and a host of lesser scandals have prompted consumers to say one thing loud and clear: "I don't trust you." Or "You're only in it for yourself." Or "Who made you king?" Or some very reasonable variant thereof. It seems the financial services industry's best response is, "Trust me, I went to Harvard Business School."

The point is that this fundamental trust no longer exists; in its place, rises Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was launched in 2008 during the depths of the financial crisis. It is a growing phenomenon that you can find out more about here, here and here. In short, it's a crypto-currency that is completely electronic, peer-to-peer, unregulated (or unregulate-able) and uncontrolled (or uncontrollable) by any government or agency. Each Bitcoin is simply a long string of numbers and letters that can identify itself within the Bitcoin economy to be unique and legitimate. Bitcoins can't be copied or tampered with; they don't exist in the real world -- only on your phone, computer or tablet -- but they have the same value as physical currency.

There are 11 million of these coins in existence today, and there will only be 21 million ever created. Similar to gold, Bitcoins are made by mining. But while gold is mined from the ground by bulldozers, Bitcoins are mined by computers solving complex mathematical equations. Each time you get a correct answer, you unlock a coin which can then enter the Bitcoin economy. These quirky characteristics may all seem like reasons to question, dislike or fear this new currency. Instead these are a few of the reasons why everyone should hope it becomes a lasting part of the fabric of financial services.

Why?

When the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency first implemented a working version of the Internet in the 1960s it seemed like a fringe experiment not dissimilar to Bitcoin today. It wasn't until a protocol called TCP/IP emerged in the 1970s and was commercialized that the Internet was positioned to take off. In short, this protocol allowed every website and service built on it to have its own "address" and a way to communicate information. This averted chaos, allowing users to find what they were looking for, allowing websites to work together and enabling networks to do the hard lifting of directing traffic in an orderly and predictable way. Without TCP/IP, the Internet as we know it would not exist.

Bitcoin today is in roughly the same development phase that TCP/IP was back then. Instead of IP addresses and websites, Bitcoin has unique strings that represent money and a mechanism to send these strings securely and safely wherever you want. It is a protocol that is allowing money to flow around the world much like TCP/IP allows information to flow -- in an orderly, predictable way.

This is not a theory; it happens every day. The Bitcoin economy, while still in its infancy, is about $2 billion (meaning, the value of all Bitcoins) and rising. New services appear daily -- exchanges, digital wallets, payment processors, along with companies that accept Bitcoin alongside dollars, euros and yen for traditional services. In addition, a small and growing group of technologists are getting behind the currency, allocating time and capital to building a robust ecosystem.

Bitcoin is being used all over the world in a wide range of ways already: to avoid the high fees of using a Visa card in San Paulo; to settle the purchase of a million dollar home in Buenos Aires; to pay a mechanic for services in Lagos; to provide Egyptians access to a liquid currency. The list goes on.

Bitcoin provides a safe way for anyone, anywhere to send, receive or store his or her money. By contrast, consumers are realizing that the traditional banking system shouldn't be trusted. Why store my money with strangers who may make crazy bets on derivatives (JPMorgan)? Why keep my money in a bank that could threaten to seize it (Cyprus)? Why keep my hard-earned savings in a currency that could be devalued because of an incompetent government (Argentina)?

All of this said, the emergence of a robust Bitcoin economy won't all be positive. Bad actors will use Bitcoin for drug dealing, porn and financing terrorism. However, this already happens every day with gold, dollars and other currencies; it's not a reason to shut Bitcoin down. Which -- did I mention this? -- is not actually possible anyway.

There is no central server, no central authority and no owner. Bitcoin can be slowed but not shuttered. And even if the U.S. Government decides it is anti-Bitcoin, many other countries will either tacitly or explicitly support it. China. Russia. Switzerland. Iceland. Singapore. Suffice it to say that the geopolitical ramifications of a robust Bitcoin economy are mind-boggling, beginning with a completely peer-to-peer banking system that works by and between people and ending with a world that no longer relies on the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of all assets.

The opportunity here is to think constructively about a world in which money flows are more transparent (Bitcoin), easy (Bitcoin), cheap (Bitcoin) and secure (Bitcoin). Does the Bitcoin economy need regulation? Possibly. Much like virtual guardrails enabled the Internet to thrive, the Bitcoin ecosystem may need something similar to begin rebalancing the financial services landscape.

The current price of Bitcoin is about $130. Some people think that Bitcoin will never become a useful currency but rather a better version of gold or a replacement to gold entirely (Gold 2.0). If this is all Bitcoin becomes, a good question is: "What would that make each Bitcoin worth?" Well, the value of all of the gold in the world isroughly $8 trillion. Assuming that Bitcoin can replace gold as a more useful store of value, then the upper bound of each Bitcoin would be almost $400,000 ($8 trillion/21 million bitcoins).

If Bitcoin grows into something bigger -- a useful reserve currency, then watch out: Its value will far exceed $400,000. I personally think that Bitcoin is already superior to gold. Its role as currency is yet to be determined, but over the next decade, being Gold 2.0 will suffice considering that it would represent a more than 3,000 times return.

I've told my friends that it is entirely rational to allocate one percent of your assets to Bitcoin -- as I have. Call it schmuck insurance. As the 2008 crisis proved, schmucks can cause a world of damage.

There is a famous scene in the Matrix where Morpheus asks Neo if he wants to take the blue pill and go back to life as he knows it or take the red pill and see life as it is. Neo takes the red pill and begins a period of exploration about humanity, hierarchy, rules, etc. Bitcoin is a red pill. There will be some bad and awkward moments, but lots of good, useful and powerful things will also ensue. It will reallocate financial strength and power to the people versus keeping it within a few centralized authorities.

I am hopeful that Bitcoin prevails. The world needs more red pills.
JayJuanGee · 2016-10-06 18:13:00 · #3028
Below is a link regarding a six episode video series about bitcoin that is supposed to begin to come out on October 10 and be completely released within that same week.

https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/06/trust-...de-series/

The content description in the article and the trailer seems interesting.
JayJuanGee · 2016-10-09 16:55:00 · #3029
The below article discusses folks losing confidence in fiat, and putting money in other assets, such as gold.


http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-n...ying-gold/

A similar kind of diversification may be justifiable for bitcoin. In the coming months, it is going to be interesting to see whether gold or bitcoin performs better.

Many of us folks following bitcoin already have assessed bitcoin as having considerably greater upside potential than gold, for a variety of reasons, including the fact that there is so much more room for expansion of bitcoin and also bitcoin is a kind of new aged asset that seems to offer quite a bit better portability than gold, while retaining assurances of scarcity.
JayJuanGee · 2016-10-11 12:18:00 · #3030
Sometimes with the passage of time, and reading the analysis and discussions of other folks, I get the sense that I may need to tweak my own conceptions regarding probabilities for another price bubble and the range of such an upcoming price bubble... Nonetheless, I think that I am going to continue to believe that $3k to $5k is our next price surge, but only after we make it passed likely resistances in the upper $600s and upper $700s.

The below analysis is a projection of 60.3x increase in prices to $9,588 within 2-3 years... much more bullish than me, but surely not unreasonable in my thinking.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD...apolation/
Satoshi · 2016-10-11 13:59:00 · #3031
I'd say $29.000 by the end of this year.
Pages: 1 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 200