(08-11-2016 12:05 PM)booshala Wrote: https://www.finextra.com/finextra-downlo...851711.pdf
135 page report that Credit Suisse put together. TLDR: BTC and especially the blockchain has some interesting potential, but it has an uphill struggle and they don't expect it to displace the huge industry players any time soon if at all.
Think it's important to try and ferret out what institutional players as well as everyday people think about cryptocurrency rather than fall into confirmation bias where I keep on looking for info to support my existing beliefs. I've been listening to Trace Mayer and Andreas Antonopolous a lot lately. Both extremely smart and persuasive champions of bitcoin, but it's easy to fall into the rabbit hole of drinking the admittedly delicious Kool-aid that they're selling without maintaining some perspective.
I'm bullish on BTC, but when I read accounts of how it's going to eventually rival the market cap of gold ($7 Trillion USD), I shake my head and wonder how that's ever going to happen. Gold's been around for thousands of years as an instrument of value/currency, it seems highly unlikely that BTC is going to mimic the value of something so ingrained in millenia of human culture in just a few years. Still, I guess people could never foresee the advent of the personal computer or the Internet, so I think there's a very small non-zero chance that something like this might happen.
After doing my due diligence, I'm banking much more on an eventual niche adoption of BTC - especially for remittances, contracts and P2P payments - that will hopefully take the market cap to something like an Intel or Cisco. Shiet, if it got to Apple's current market cap, we'd be sitting pretty at something like $37,000/BTC which would make this guy very, very happy. Could fall to scraps too if there are concerted efforts by the government to stymie the growth or promulgation of cryptos. Interesting times...
Thanks a lot Booshla for the link to that article and your pointing out significant portions of it.
I agree with your point that getting some outside assessment can be valuable to recognize how bitcoin (or any other technology for that matter) may be playing out in the other circles.
Personally, I don't want to spend considerable time reading in detail a 135 page document, yet I did focus a little bit in on their identification of 13 barriers to bitcoin's mass adoption (starting on page 33), and the large majority of those criticisms were given much more weight than they deserve with little evidence to back them up.
I do believe however that about three and a half of their criticisms have some merit, and those are the points raised as 3, 8, 10, 11 & 12. O.k. Yeah, I list 5 points here;however, points 11 & 12 are only worth about half of a point together (therefore 3.5 points).
I'm not going to go through an analysis regarding what I believe to be wrong with the majority of their points, except to suggest that overall in their other lame criticisms they seem to fail/refuse to sufficiently recognize the value that is being brought to the space and the trade offs and developing that is ongoing.
Point 3) Regarding the extreme weakness of third-party risk and centralization. I agree that this is a problem with bitcoin, and likely to continue to be an ongoing problem, yet in some sense it is not really a problem with bitcoin the technology itself, merely the practice of entrusting third parties with bitcoin.
point 8) Regarding internal conflict and inertia. Sure, this is going to remain a problem with bitcoin for a while because in some sense it is a feature of bitcoin in being decentralized, and some of the internal conflict and inertia issues will be created on purpose by malicious parties. This is not going to go away for a while, and maybe their could be solutions at some point in the recognition and education of folks regarding difficulties in making changes to bitcoin without first going through the motions of persuading and achieving consensus, which admittedly is not easy in decentralized systems, and such strife issues is not likely to go away anytime soon..
Point 10) regarding regulatory risk. Yep, sure, various governments can act at any time to become hostile to bitcoin and with disparate enforcement. They kind of concede that currently the bag is regulatory risk is mixed, and surely, i will concede that this is likely to be an ongoing, shifting and contradictory aspect of bitcoin, especially when concedingly the bitcoin phenomenon itself remains disruptive.
Points 11 & 12) regarding irrecoverability and irreversibility - in my thinking, these are really the same point about lack of centralization. I don't really consider these to be much of a point.. and we could say a feature rather than a bug..