NASA Test Pilot
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RE: Venezuela could open up shortly?
There was big news in Venezuela yesterday and today.
The government has raised gasoline prices. The last time they did this successfully was 1996 (there was a failed attempt as the government was almost overthrown so they rescinded the hike). The price has gone from the cheapest in the world (1 penny per tank) to the cheapest in the world (4 pennies per tank (91 octane), 95 octane will be 6 times higher…go figure. It is mostly imported from Brazil) using the black market rate. In terms of price per liter it is officially 2 centers per liter in Venezuela, but at the black market rate you need to divide that by 100. Kuwait is second cheapest in the world at 22 cents per liter (3.8 liters per gallon) and Saudi Arabia is 3rd at 24 cents per liter. Hong Kong is the highest at $1.76 per liter (using dollars and not adding taxes). The minimum salary will increase as well as food allowance. It will be about 25,000 BsF per month combined (an increase of almost 50%). You can see the inflation building in the pipeline.
There has also been a major devaluation of the Bolivar. The official rate went from 6.3 to 10 BsF per dollar (which is for food, medicine and official business). The rest of the quote market will go to the Simadi rate which is now 202 BsF per dollar. So those cheap airline tickets that were 5,000 BsF for a one way flight in January 2016 will increase by a factor of 20 (using round numbers) in March. That means the same ticket will be 100,000 BsF or about $100. I expect inflation to take off in March so that 100,000 BsF will probably be about $50 in July/August and down to $25 in December. These are the types of opportunities that exist with hyperinflation and the devaluation of currencies.
On the positive side, the talent on the islands is incredible. There are vast greater numbers of beautiful women in Caracas, but the ratio of 7´s -10´s per capita is higher on the islands. The silicone is like Malibu. You young guys will be walking boners.
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| 02-18-2016 06:51 PM |
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NASA Test Pilot
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RE: Venezuela could open up shortly?
The most opportune time for hunting on the islands are as follows:
1) Carnival (before lent). It can be like Ibiza (although less intense).
2) Semana Santa (the week before Easter)
3) Mid-July through mid-September also known as high season with the best during the month of August. This crowd is largely Venezuelan with some foreigners
4) December – January with the best between Christmas and 3 days after the New Year. This is also called high season. There will be a larger portion of foreigners at this time (especially from other South American Countries). Columbians usually come in larger groups, depending on the exchange rate, in January and the early part of February.
May and October are the quietest. On Margarita Island there are 151 beaches of which I am aware. Without breaking the island down on a data sheet (for now); the best beaches at those times to bird watch are:
1) Playa El Agua on the (north) eastern side of the island. This is a 3 km mostly white sandy beach that will be 70% local and 30% foreigners.
2) Playa El Yaque on the southern side of the island is a very wide beach slightly over 1 km. It is the 5th (varying) best windurfing spot on the planet. You will also see kite-surfers there. This is 80% Local, 20% Foreigners.
3) Playa Parguito on the eastern side of the island (just south of Playa El Agua) and is a wide (white gold mix) sand beach a slightly less than 1 km. This will be 99% local, but will generally have the best looking women. This is one of the main beaches for surfing (most consistent rights off the southern point (fast and thick waves) and when the swell is from the north, a beautiful left off of Rocky Point that is a little slower).
4) Playa Caribe on the west side of the island near Juan Griego is also 99% local. A scenic curving beach that winds for almost 2 km. The waves are general calm unless there is a ¨Marifundo´ (and then it is rockín).
The island have less tourists (to include Venezuelan) compared to past years as there are less flights (52% seat mile reduction) and only 2 of the 9 ferries (the large car and passenger carrying type) are operating.
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| 02-21-2016 04:31 PM |
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NASA Test Pilot
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RE: Venezuela could open up shortly?
There are two major points of interests for the wannabe tourist in Venezuela now. One is political, the second is infrastructure. Politically the Venezuelan National Assembly (AN) has declared that they will use three constitution remedies to attempt to remove the current President. The major item is the call for a referendum for his removal. To do this they must wait until the current leader has been in office for 50% of his term (April 14, 2016), second they must obtain a certain percentage of signatures of the eligible voters (they need 4 million) to call for a vote, have a vote for removal where more the number of people that voted for the current president in the last election is exceeded by one vote. According, he would normally be removed from office; however there are Judicial machinations at the level of their Supreme Court (TSJ) occurring that may cause a constitutional crisis. After the vote for removal and assuming it was a vote to remove and there were no crisis circumstances, a new election would be held and a new leader would be installed in October.
The second point of interest is water. There is a shortage of water that is the second worst in the history of Venezuela and it could easily be the worst as the next few months progress. The Guri dam is the hydro-electric source of the majority of the countries power and it is at the level where as they operate it, the turbines will cavitate and cause long term damage (to the turbines) while they spin to produce electricity. Therefore, I would expect electricity issues as well in April and May before the rains arrive (if they do). Caracas is under light water rationing and the islands are under severe rationing due to additional problems with the under-sea water pipe that has been leaking for years and supposedly fixed at least 3 times. Margarita Island, Coche Island and Los Roques are being squeezed where many may not get water for another 4-6 weeks (for their water trucks and water pumped directly to neighborhoods) as they must use their (insufficient) water tanks to survive. The water system is a story in itself. Bottom line, if you go to a hotel on the islands in the next 6 weeks to 6 months (according to my contacts at the Venezuelan national water service, Hidro-Caribe) you will most likely experience water rationing. Currently it may be something like not having water from noon to 4 pm, but then it can progress to only water from 6-8(9) in the morning and 6-8(9) in the evenings. The pools at the hotel will be limited as well. Also two hospital- clinics on Margarita are closed due to the lack of water.
Normally the island populations will double over the coming Semana Santa, but reservations are running between 60-70% (it has seldom been less than 95% in all of the years that I have dealt with the Venezuela) as people would rather have the inconvenience at home rather than on vacation. Bottom line is that there will be less babes on the beach.
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| 03-14-2016 03:49 AM |
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WeekendCasanova
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RE: Venezuela could open up shortly?
(03-14-2016 03:49 AM)NASA Test Pilot Wrote: There are two major points of interests for the wannabe tourist in Venezuela now. One is political, the second is infrastructure. Politically the Venezuelan National Assembly (AN) has declared that they will use three constitution remedies to attempt to remove the current President. The major item is the call for a referendum for his removal. To do this they must wait until the current leader has been in office for 50% of his term (April 14, 2016), second they must obtain a certain percentage of signatures of the eligible voters (they need 4 million) to call for a vote, have a vote for removal where more the number of people that voted for the current president in the last election is exceeded by one vote. According, he would normally be removed from office; however there are Judicial machinations at the level of their Supreme Court (TSJ) occurring that may cause a constitutional crisis. After the vote for removal and assuming it was a vote to remove and there were no crisis circumstances, a new election would be held and a new leader would be installed in October.
The second point of interest is water. There is a shortage of water that is the second worst in the history of Venezuela and it could easily be the worst as the next few months progress. The Guri dam is the hydro-electric source of the majority of the countries power and it is at the level where as they operate it, the turbines will cavitate and cause long term damage (to the turbines) while they spin to produce electricity. Therefore, I would expect electricity issues as well in April and May before the rains arrive (if they do). Caracas is under light water rationing and the islands are under severe rationing due to additional problems with the under-sea water pipe that has been leaking for years and supposedly fixed at least 3 times. Margarita Island, Coche Island and Los Roques are being squeezed where many may not get water for another 4-6 weeks (for their water trucks and water pumped directly to neighborhoods) as they must use their (insufficient) water tanks to survive. The water system is a story in itself. Bottom line, if you go to a hotel on the islands in the next 6 weeks to 6 months (according to my contacts at the Venezuelan national water service, Hidro-Caribe) you will most likely experience water rationing. Currently it may be something like not having water from noon to 4 pm, but then it can progress to only water from 6-8(9) in the morning and 6-8(9) in the evenings. The pools at the hotel will be limited as well. Also two hospital- clinics on Margarita are closed due to the lack of water.
Normally the island populations will double over the coming Semana Santa, but reservations are running between 60-70% (it has seldom been less than 95% in all of the years that I have dealt with the Venezuela) as people would rather have the inconvenience at home rather than on vacation. Bottom line is that there will be less babes on the beach.
There's a shortage of pretty much everything right now. One of the girls I see frequently in Toronto is from Venezuela, and boots on the ground have been saying how bad prices are getting right now.
Even if the 1:1000ish exchange rate, with the jacked up prices, apparently (value-wise), you get around 1:700 for your money right now. Not a big deal for most people, but it's something to consider.
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| 03-14-2016 05:29 AM |
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Off The Reservation
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| 04-04-2016 05:58 PM |
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WeekendCasanova
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RE: Venezuela could open up shortly?
(04-05-2016 04:00 AM)Chaos Wrote: (04-04-2016 04:28 PM)rottenapple Wrote: Venezuela sounds very attractive, but literally every Venezuelan I speak to tells me not to go, now nor in the near future and this while knowing I´ve been in some shitty places and now how to handle myself. All state that as a visible foreigner you will get robbed very easily and chances are you can get killed or severely injured even.
One girl told me about an incident where a group of criminals robbed and killed a foreigner inside the airport! She said they probably bought off security and the guy refused to give anything up, thinking he was safe inside.
Either way thanks for the info NASA test pilot, let´s hope things get better a bit because damn those Venezuelan girls are hot and I´m still not completely sure if I can believe all the horror stories.
I have been told the same things. However I know some people living there who I trust more than some unconfirmed horror stories.
Anyways, Venezuela sounds like my kind of place and I'm dead set on going there later this year.
Death or glory.
Venezuelans hate their country, or at least the current state of their country. Every horror story you hear (while they could be true) are likely drastically exaggerated due to their hatred for their country.
Before I went to Venezuela, my local friends said horrible things about the country; how I'd be killed the second I stepped foot outside of the hotel, or I'd be kidnapped as soon as someone saw my phone...While these things can happen, the likelihood of them happening is slim to none.
Local Venezuelans can give you some good tips for navigating their country, but in most cases I'd take the validity of their horror stories with a grain of salt. I'm not saying Venezuelan isn't dangerous though - because it is. That being said, most people I encountered there were pretty nice, and genuine.
Aside from the toilet paper shortage, I see no reason why someone should stay away from Venezuelan unless you're an inexperienced traveler with limited Spanish. Venezuela will chew you up and spit you back out.
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| 04-05-2016 08:36 AM |
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NASA Test Pilot
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RE: Venezuela could open up shortly?
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| 05-15-2016 04:43 PM |
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