Post: #1

With the increasing in-security in Europe one thing is clear: tons of crimes go unreported. A friend told me people found a dead body in the international campus of Paris and they are "investigating". Never made the news of course.

Which lead me to wonder, how often, or if we have statistics, how many percent of murders go unreported and unsolved?

Say a man walk down alone in the street at night, got attacked by a robber. The robber killed him accidentally with a knife, and ran away. No eyewitnesses. The victim is an average Joe and not someone important. Is the case likely to be dismissed after a courtesy investigation, or is it gonna be serious and cops will pursue it till the end?

Would like to hear from everyone from all over the world since the law everywhere is different.

Post: #2

Are you asking for a friend...?

I'd say that most murders eventually get solved; however, it's not because the police catches the murderer for that individual act, but because the nature of the murderer inevitably leads him to commit further and further crimes, until he finally gets caught over one of them and then the thread unrolls from there. But that's just my guess.

Post: #3

In Colombia, about 97% of the time.

Post: #4

Dalaran.....what did you do ?

Post: #5

According to the FBI clearance statistics of 2012, roughly 1/3 go unsolved in the US.

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/cr...clearances

Post: #6

(03-02-2016 04:19 PM)General Stalin Wrote:  According to the FBI clearance statistics of 2012, roughly 1/3 go unsolved in the US.

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/cr...clearances

I could have googled this myself, but are these sources even reliable? We know governments masked lots of crimes to prevent public disorder.

I asked here because you guys are expert at digging up unconventional sources.

@Kaotic: I was lurking in the shadow. The obsidian darkness of the room is unbroken saved for the occasional, flickered light from passing by cars. Then, with all my senses aroused to its extreme deftness, I heard my prey. He continues his trajectory, oblivious of his impending doom. I smirked as I contemplate how pity he wouldn't ever fathom how his ignonimous existence will end. But it all stops here.

I held my breath and could feel my heart beat heavily in my chest. I know I had only one chance.

Then my hand flashed out. A dull thud sounded as flesh hit the wall. Blood spattered all over my hand.

That fucking mosquito is dead. Damn fucker been hovering over my ears all night disrupting my sleep...

Post: #7

(03-02-2016 04:16 PM)kaotic Wrote:  Dalaran.....what did you do ?

Post: #8

Murders go unsolved about 1/3 of the time in America.

I imagine the police will pursue it as far as they can, but if they just hit a dead end, there might be nothing they can do.

I don't think it would be that hard to get away with murder here, if it was a well-planned crime. Even if you don't have other people to give you an alibi (if you knew the victim and the police were checking you out), if you just shut the fuck up what are the cops going to do? I believe most criminals end up frying themselves when they try to get clever and talk their way out of it. If a cop is talking to you about a crime, you're a suspect. Anything you say will just give them threads to tug on until the story falls apart, and even if you're innocent a mistake in recall can result in them charging you for the crime because you "lied". So shut the fuck up and get a lawyer and odds are excellent you'll walk, guilty or not.

As far as random crime, I'd guess it comes down to elements of chance. Did the criminal leave something behind, did someone see him, etc. And then if the suspect just clams up and gets a lawyer, odds are still excellent he's going to walk unless they find the bloody murder weapon in his pocket or similar. An intelligent criminal would be pretty hard to catch and convict. But then, intelligent people don't often go for violent crime.

Post: #9

Next thread by Dalaran: "How do I make somebody disappear without getting caught?"

Post: #10

I know that around 8 percent of murders in Brazil are solved every year, in the USA is 60% of murders solved per year (it varies by city, I am just giving an average number here).

You can find this information on google, I don't have it in hand but I know is out there.

Your probability of getting away with a murder in a third world country is extremely high. Reason why locals are usually scared of their own cities, they have seen case after case of people that they knew that were murdered and those murders were never solved or anybody been prosecuted for it. This is what makes these countries really dangerous, its the same murderers committing the same crimes over and over again.

Post: #11

(03-02-2016 04:33 PM)monster Wrote:  Next thread by Dalaran: "How do I make somebody disappear without getting caught?"

Do you own an acetylene torch?

Post: #12

Post: #13

I wonder how many missing people were actually murdered by intelligent killers who knew how to dispose of a body and had the stomach to do it right?

Think about it. If you stay calm and have your own place, what are the odds someone is going to stumble into your body disposal operation during the few hours or days it takes? Especially if you're out in the sticks somewhere and don't have visitors often.

Post: #14

Are we talking premeditated murder with a plan or crimes of passion/anger?

Pedophiles go for periods of time where the police cannot catch them because they have a low profile and they're clever bastards. If you are aware of procedures, are not normally involved with the police and execute a plan you can get away with it.

Snuffing out your ex wife when you have a known history is going to fly red flags your way. Going out and murdering someone late at night who is walking home from work is a random act but harder to solve. CCTV can catch you but if you are in a country with limited CCTV use or you can avoid them then its a matter of getting away with it.

Organised crime snuffed out many people and still do.

Post: #15

Post: #16

(03-02-2016 04:27 PM)Dalaran1991 Wrote:  I could have googled this myself, but are these sources even reliable? We know governments masked lots of crimes to prevent public disorder.

I asked here because you guys are expert at digging up unconventional sources.

Not sure where else you'd find reliable enough information. The data you're looking for is wholly administrated by law enforcement. I generally turn to fbi.gov when it comes to looking up US crime statistics. Whether you're a tinfoil-hat-type or not, it's the only place I can think of to find any sort of reliable reference for that sort of information. Not sure what reporting is like in other countries or what kind of access people have to that data.

A little googling elsewhere also shows the one-third metric being tossed around for US unsolved murders.

Post: #17

In big cities people are killed all the time and it never gets solved. Drive bys, muggings, hit and runs etc. If their is no connection between killer and victim it is really hard to solve.

Post: #18

(03-02-2016 04:05 PM)Dalaran1991 Wrote:  The robber killed him accidentally with a knife, and ran away.

When knifes get pulled, no death is accidental.

But on topic, I'd say in first world countries the clearance rate for murder in particular is rather high. Murder in those countries is usually a crime of passion, or premeditated by someone with a clear connection to the victim. Good investigative police work can easily solve most of those cases. In addition, organized crime there has often evolved beyond the kind of low profit-high risk schemes involving homicide. Things happen, but it's relatively rare.
A much tougher nut to crack are determined and smart individuals, think psychopaths and serial killers, who prey on completely random victims. They make up a very small percentage of crimes comitted, but there's a reason everytime they catch one it's big news. Basically all the police can do is wait for them to make a mistake, and if it never comes, they might very well get away with it.

What would definitely be interesting to know is the number of homicides going unreported and unnoticed.
I do think that if there was something like mandatory autopsy, there would be quite a few surprises.

Post: #19

I wouldn't be surprised if the government was fudging the numbers. But that aside, those statistics are for when a body has been found. People go missing all the time and a body is never found. Thus, those murder statistics do not include all the people that were murdered whose body was never found to have a homicide investigation to begin with.

Also, those statistics do not account for all the people that die of "accidents" and "suicides" that were really homicides.

Post: #20

(03-03-2016 02:34 AM)ElConquistador Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if the government was fudging the numbers. But that aside, those statistics are for when a body has been found. People go missing all the time and a body is never found. Thus, those murder statistics do not include all the people that were murdered whose body was never found to have a homicide investigation to begin with.

Also, those statistics do not account for all the people that die of "accidents" and "suicides" that were really homicides.

Post: #21

"The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. To be your own man is a hard business. If you try it, you'll be lonely often, and sometimes frightened. But no price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself." - Rudyard Kipling

Post: #22

delete

Post: #23

(03-02-2016 04:16 PM)kaotic Wrote:  Dalaran.....what did you do ?

Let's just hope he searched this stuff at an Internet cafe far from where he lives and paid cash. And didn't map directions from his place to a public dump site/disposal site. Or ordered a wood chipper and had it delivered to his place.

Just teasing Dalaran. Hope you have been doing ok in Paris.

Post: #24

What are the odds of being murdered by a serial killer in the US?
In my country I've never heard of serial killers operating locally.

Post: #25

I think there is so much shit that determines if the police decide that they are going to bother investigate.

If an old lady got murdered in an alleyway, and they had some really shitty cctv footage of a refugee being the only person in that area that night. They would probably just sweep it under the rug.
Say something like "she was old, about to die anyway, we have no leads, we will let you know if something comes up".