Post: #1

Looking ahead to New Hampshire where a debate will occur 3 days before the first real primary in the year.

Here's what you need to know:

-It's the first GOP debate hosted by ABC News (previously hosted a Democratic debate in December)

-The moderators will be David Muir, Martha Raddatz and "WMUR political director Josh McElveen ".

https://twitter.com/DavidMuir
https://twitter.com/MarthaRaddatz
https://twitter.com/JoshMcElveen

-The criteria to get on the main stage is typical of recent debates. You need to be: Top 3 in Iowa, Top 6 in New Hampshire polling or Top 6 in national polling.

This sets the stage for a 7 person debate of Cruz, Rubio, Trump, Bush and Christie (top 6 nationally & NH), Kasich (top 6 in NH only) and Carson (top 6 nationally only. Carson's little moment in the sun months ago is still boosting his national average, I guess).

(sources: Debate criteria, RCP National Polling, RCP New Hampshire polling)

-The bad news: no undercard debate (source). This effectively cuts the rest out of the public eye at a critical time, essentially spelling the end for Fiorina, Santorum, and yes, Rand Paul (7th nationally, 9th New Hampshire).

There's a chance of him sneaking in depending on which polls ABC News average to determine entry, and if he somehow gets a boost nationally or in New Hampshire in polling completed by Friday (the deadline for polls to be taken into consideration), particularly nationally where he could dethrone Chris Christie for 6th, but it's not looking too hot for him...

-Fun fact: if the criteria had been "top 5" instead of "top 6", it would have bounced Chris Christie who's polling 6th both nationally and in NH (per previously posted RCP polls)


I was under the impression there was no debate between Iowa and NH, bullshit that someone cited during one of their "Trump can't skip this debate" rants, calling the Fox News debate the last one before both Iowa AND New Hampshire. Glad to see there's one more before New Hampshire and this is the big one - the last gasp of relevancy for many candidates, a good opportunity for EVERYONE to gang up on Ted Cruz, and a chance for Trump to strike hard and gain victory.


Once again, that's Saturday at 8 p.m. EST. Get hyped!

Post: #2

(02-01-2016 11:09 PM)Last Parade Wrote:  -The bad news: no undercard debate (source). This effectively cuts the rest out of the public eye at a critical time, essentially spelling the end for Fiorina, Santorum, and yes, Rand Paul (7th nationally, 9th New Hampshire).

Sounds like good news to me. I'm tired of Rand's sour grapes.
He's such a disappointment.

Post: #3

At the same time as International Meetup Day

Son of a bitch...

Post: #4

(02-02-2016 12:06 AM)MiscBrah Wrote:  At the same time as International Meetup Day

Son of a bitch...

What do you mean? The guys need to hit up a bar and play it in the background while talking about manly stuff. It's a great setup.

Post: #5

(02-02-2016 12:29 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(02-02-2016 12:06 AM)MiscBrah Wrote:  At the same time as International Meetup Day

Son of a bitch...

What do you mean? The guys need to hit up a bar and play it in the background while talking about manly stuff. It's a great setup.

Holy crap. What a great cover story for those meetups under threat.

Post: #6

Karma is a bitch.

Rand sat out the second to last debate, then criticized Trump for sitting out of the last debate, and now he's out of this one. He actually won a delegate in Iowa too, yet he's being replaced by the three stooges, Bush, Christie, and Kasich

Post: #7

Sarah Palin just posted a message of thanks and support for Rand Paul, and guess what? His fans' reactions are predictably butthurt, whining about her "betraying him for Trump" and "cheating on Rand with an asshole".

This knee-jerk intellectualism and outright refusal of diplomacy is why libertarianism will always, to quote a certain famous movie, "remain a small movement, a silly movement".

Post: #8

(02-02-2016 12:04 AM)iop890 Wrote:  Sounds like good news to me. I'm tired of Rand's sour grapes.
He's such a disappointment.

Apparently Rand is primarily responsible for Kentucky switching from its regular primary to a complicated Iowa-style caucus:

Quote:Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is asking his state's Republican Party to stage a presidential caucus in 2016 well ahead of their regularly scheduled primary elections in May - a move he says would increase the state's clout in the GOP nominating process while also aiding his own political ambitions.

...

In his letter, the senator suggested Kentucky's current primary, which comes relatively late in the process, effectively deprives Kentuckians of a meaningful voice in the nominating process.

"It has been suggested by others for several cycles that Kentucky has no influence on the presidential process because of our late primary," Paul wrote. "By May 2016, the GOP will likely have decided its nominee, rendering our votes useless in deciding anything."

Nothing wrong with lobbying for your home state, right?

Quote:Creating a separate caucus for the presidential nomination would also allow Paul to simultaneously run for president and reelection to his seat - something he would not be able to do under current Kentucky law, which prohibits a name from appearing on a primary ballot for more than one office.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaand there it is. Typical establishment cuck, screwing over your constituency so you can take a long-shot hail-mary at the presidency while also minimizing the fallout of your inevitable failure.

Why am I not surprised?

Post: #9

Given the above criteria the stage will be;
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush, Kasich, Christie.

I am expecting Trump and Carson to go nuclear on Cruz (as close to nuclear as possible for Carson anyway) and effectively take a giant shit on his campaign for the lies and dishonesty. Keep playing on the loan he didn't declare, lying about Carson leaving the race, "not knowing" he was a Canadian citizen. He's a slimey liar and I hope people have the half brain required to figure that out.

Meanwhile I am expecting Bush to challenge Rubio as much as possible. He knows if he doesn't get a 2ND place finish in NH he is done. He'll lay it all on the table, but knowing his shitty campaign, that will probably just make Rubio more popular. The 'Jeb' effect as I call it.

Should be interesting. This is Bush, Kasich and Christie's last chance. I hope they slam Rubio on all sides, but I think it's more likely they suck up to him, so he can later bestow them with the honour of being minister of cuckery, or some other nonsense, in his cabinet.

Post: #10

Confirmed - Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Kasich Christie are the invitees.

Post: #11

Bush go away, it is getting embarrassing now.

But seriously, what is Bush thinking?

"I just need Trump, Rubio, Cruz, and Carson to implode and I will be the chosen one!"

Post: #12

(02-04-2016 03:24 PM)username Wrote:  Bush go away, it is getting embarrassing now.

But seriously, what is Bush thinking?

"I just need Trump, Rubio, Cruz, and Carson to implode and I will be the chosen one!"

Yup

Post: #13

(02-04-2016 03:24 PM)username Wrote:  Bush go away, it is getting embarrassing now.

But seriously, what is Bush thinking?

"I just need Trump, Rubio, Cruz, and Carson to implode and I will be the chosen one!"

There's probably some calculation to all this. Jeb knows he's done and so does everyone else.

I'm guessing the establishment wants him to continue so he can try and chisel a slight percentage of voters off Trump so they can get Cruz (choice #1) or Rubio (choice #2) into the nomination slot.

Jeb has wasted an immense amount of money doing this but money is no object to these people.