Post: #1

Has anyone here made bets on political sites? Which ones are honest and pay promptly?
Also, relevant tax issues?

I looked into my crystal ball, and I am 100% convinced that Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee, and Trump will be the Republican nominee. Furthermore, I think that in the general election Bernie Sanders will beat Trump, perhaps by 5% or more.

I would like to add that I don't vote, am not going to be personally affected by the election result (live in Spain, have passive income, etc) and I don't give a rat's rear end who wins. So I am not trying to turn this into a heated political troll fest. I'm not emotionally invested.

I look at the election as entertainment. And sporting events that I normally don't care about are more interesting when money is involved, so why not politics?

So, I'm thinking 5K on Sanders, several sites are giving 8 to 1 odds on that now, and when I checked a couple days ago, it was 10 to 1.

Post: #2

(01-14-2016 10:22 AM)VolandoVengoVolandoVoy Wrote:  Has anyone here made bets on political sites? Which ones are honest and pay promptly?
Also, relevant tax issues?

I looked into my crystal ball, and I am 100% convinced that Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee, and Trump will be the Republican nominee. Furthermore, I think that in the general election Bernie Sanders will beat Trump, perhaps by 5% or more.

I would like to add that I don't vote, am not going to be personally affected by the election result (live in Spain, have passive income, etc) and I don't give a rat's rear end who wins. So I am not trying to turn this into a heated political troll fest. I'm not emotionally invested.

I look at the election as entertainment. And sporting events that I normally don't care about are more interesting when money is involved, so why not politics?

So, I'm thinking 5K on Sanders, several sites are giving 8 to 1 odds on that now, and when I checked a couple days ago, it was 10 to 1.

I would be interested in this also. I am also normally not interested in politics but putting money on it could make me actually follow it a little bit. I would have 0 interest in March Madness/Random football games if it wasnt for gambing.

Post: #3

(01-14-2016 10:22 AM)VolandoVengoVolandoVoy Wrote:  I think that in the general election Bernie Sanders will beat Trump, perhaps by 5% or more.

No need for gambling sites; there are plenty here who will take you up on that bet.

Post: #4

(01-14-2016 11:40 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

(01-14-2016 10:22 AM)VolandoVengoVolandoVoy Wrote:  I think that in the general election Bernie Sanders will beat Trump, perhaps by 5% or more.

No need for gambling sites; there are plenty here who will take you up on that bet.

What odds?

And how could we possibly guarantee payment? I doubt anyone here is willing to go throw the process of setting up escrow accounts.

Post: #5

@VVVV interesting prediction, just wondering how you came to that conclusion?

Post: #6

5K USD on Sanders? You feeling alright?

Post: #7

I'd do 1k on Hillary and Cruz.

Post: #8

http://www.bookmaker.eu/

http://www.5dimes.eu/

http://www.heritagesports.eu/

These are the best for USA users.

Bookmaker routinely takes 25k bets on nfl games, so your little thousand dollar bets are safe. CFB championship they were taking 50k bets.

5 dimes has lower limits but they are reliable too.

Bookmaker had Trump presidential win at +880 not too long ago....which means a 5k bet would've paid over 40k. but now he's down to the +520 range
there are many, many other online gambling sites which will have smaller limits and slower payout methods.

https://nitrogensports.eu/ nitrogen is a great bitcoin-only book which allows you to withdraw INSTANTLY since bitcoin is fast.

I'm a degenerate sports gambler so I use all of these.

Post: #9

(01-14-2016 01:20 PM)Disco_Volante Wrote:  http://www.bookmaker.eu/

http://www.5dimes.eu/

http://www.heritagesports.eu/

These are the best for USA users.

Bookmaker routinely takes 25k bets on nfl games, so your little thousand dollar bets are safe. CFB championship they were taking 50k bets.

5 dimes has lower limits but they are reliable too.

Bookmaker had Trump presidential win at +880 not too long ago....which means a 5k bet would've paid over 40k. but now he's down to the +520 range

Maybe -880, definitely not +880

but maybe it's different than ball, I don't know. "-7" predicted to win by 7, +7 predicted to lose by 7?

Post: #10

(01-14-2016 12:57 PM)lavidaloca Wrote:  5K USD on Sanders? You feeling alright?

I was just thinking the same thing, he is literally throwing away money.

Post: #11

Linux you are thinking of spreads.
If Trump was -800, that would mean he's the heavy favorite, as an $800 bet would only pay out $100 profit.

Trump was considered a long shot especially when he started saying offensive shit the books made his odds worse by offering the higher payout.
now that he's more popular the payout has already dropped to +435.

The more likely he is to win, the books lower the payout.
Lets say it comes down to him and Hillary and she's a slight favorite. the odds would be like -150 for Hillary, and maybe +180 for Trump.

So a $150 bet on Hillary would payout 250 (100 in profit), and a 100 bet on trump would pay out 280 (180 in profit).


For example, right now Hillary is -142 to win presidency, and Ted Cruz is +966 to win presidency. Ted gives a huge payout because it's less likely to happen.

Post: #12

(01-14-2016 12:08 PM)amity Wrote:  @VVVV interesting prediction, just wondering how you came to that conclusion?

Remember the scene in the Godfather II where Michael Corleone is visiting Cuba, and sees a Cuban rebel blow himself up with a grenade, killing an officer in the process, rather than be taken alive? He realizes at that moment that the rebels will win, and decides not to invest with Hyman Roth. He reflects on how the soldiers were paid to fight, but the rebels weren't.

He saw their enthusiasm and momentum.

I had a similar moment of clarity when I watched some video footage of Sanders' supporters. One lady about 50 years old was interviewed. She was some sort of physical therapist/home health aide, making really low pay. She had never donated before, was short on cash, yet had just made a 400 dollar donation to Sanders, and was eager to give more when she scrapped together the cash.

This struck a cord with me, so I looked up Sanders' campaign funding.

People can say all the bullshit they want, but at the end of the day, money is the most reliable indicator of where people's real enthusiasm is.

It turns out Sanders raised 73 million USD in 2015, from over 1 million different donors who made a total of 2.5 million donations.

That tells me he can and will win.

I have already made my bet, I only wish I had done it earlier when I could have gotten 20 to 1.

Post: #13

I've bet on elections as well as who would be the new Pope. Most serious bookmakers put a cap of around $200 on these 'fun' sorts of bets. I assume this is because they don't really have established methods of making book on these like they do on sports. The Pope bet was pretty fun (I lost, bet on the Arch-Bishop of Genoa, Angelo Bagnasco)

Post: #14

I've deposited a few hundred dollars with this site: https://www.predictit.org.

Despite what many people on this forum people believe, I do not think Trump will be president, and I've put my money where my mouth is.

I have had no problems withdrawing money. But note that it is not a U.S.-based firm. I don't have more money with them, because there does seem to be some regulatory risk.

Post: #15

(01-14-2016 01:29 PM)LINUX Wrote:  

(01-14-2016 01:20 PM)Disco_Volante Wrote:  http://www.bookmaker.eu/

http://www.5dimes.eu/

http://www.heritagesports.eu/

These are the best for USA users.

Bookmaker routinely takes 25k bets on nfl games, so your little thousand dollar bets are safe. CFB championship they were taking 50k bets.

5 dimes has lower limits but they are reliable too.

Bookmaker had Trump presidential win at +880 not too long ago....which means a 5k bet would've paid over 40k. but now he's down to the +520 range

Maybe -880, definitely not +880

but maybe it's different than ball, I don't know. "-7" predicted to win by 7, +7 predicted to lose by 7?

It's a money line bet, it means a $100 bet wins $880 if your "team" wins. -880 would mean you'd have to bet $880 to win 100.

Post: #16

(01-14-2016 08:57 PM)Mikan Wrote:  I've bet on elections as well as who would be the new Pope. Most serious bookmakers put a cap of around $200 on these 'fun' sorts of bets. I assume this is because they don't really have established methods of making book on these like they do on sports. The Pope bet was pretty fun (I lost, bet on the Arch-Bishop of Genoa, Angelo Bagnasco)

The political betting market is far from the oddball prop bet market. The bet limits are much higher.
It is actually pretty damn liquid and moves a good amount of money. A fraction of sports betting, but enough to make it interesting.

Post: #17

(01-14-2016 10:22 AM)VolandoVengoVolandoVoy Wrote:  Has anyone here made bets on political sites? Which ones are honest and pay promptly?
Also, relevant tax issues?

I looked into my crystal ball, and I am 100% convinced that Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee, and Trump will be the Republican nominee. Furthermore, I think that in the general election Bernie Sanders will beat Trump, perhaps by 5% or more.

I would like to add that I don't vote, am not going to be personally affected by the election result (live in Spain, have passive income, etc) and I don't give a rat's rear end who wins. So I am not trying to turn this into a heated political troll fest. I'm not emotionally invested.

I look at the election as entertainment. And sporting events that I normally don't care about are more interesting when money is involved, so why not politics?

So, I'm thinking 5K on Sanders, several sites are giving 8 to 1 odds on that now, and when I checked a couple days ago, it was 10 to 1.

Just out of curiosity, how are you feeling about your bet now? Did you cash out, or are you just going to flush the 5k down the toilet?