Post: #26

Why are you focusing on the least important part, personal income tax?

Corporate tax, royalties, and increased social spending are the main issues. You are correct that personal income tax will not affect most people more than a couple hundred bucks. Myself included.

Of course if you are laid off because the company you work for can no longer afford you due to their increased tax bill... I guess you could call that a 100% personal tax rate for those people!

Post: #27

(05-07-2015 10:53 AM)DannyAlberta Wrote:  ^ did i say i voted conservative nima? and indeed i will be in the 14% bracket with no apparent opportunity to income split (hopefully they will change their minds on that).

here are the realities: alberta takes in more revenue per capita than any other province. it also spends more per capita than any other province and has been living outside its means for most of the last decade.

this is not a revenue problem. it is a spending problem. that is not hysteria. it is fact.

the public sector grows and grows and grows and becomes more and more entitled and people like me are told to disproportionately fund it.

it is systemic, unsustainable and uneconomic. but it seems like most albertans have become just like the rest of canada and scream "gimmie, gimmie, gimmie" while believing the "rich", "evil" corporations and borrowed money can all contribute an unlimited supply.

When we say oil companies have to pay their dues, you say no. When we say people that make vastly more the average Canadian have to pay their dues you say no. Spending problem? I bet you love the American system where it's a free for all and tens of millions of people don't have health care. Where women don't have paid maternity leaves (fucking Saudis are ahead of the Americans in that regard). Where society is run like a big company and its citizens are nothing but mere expendable employees.

There is no spending problems. Social programs are important and if I have to pay more in taxes to support them, I'm okay with it.

And please save it with the "I make a lot of money so I must be working harder" attitude. It usually works in reverse.

Post: #28

(05-07-2015 10:58 AM)christpuncher Wrote:  Why are you focusing on the least important part, personal income tax?

Corporate tax, royalties, and increased social spending are the main issues. You are correct that personal income tax will not affect most people more than a couple hundred bucks. Myself included.

Of course if you are laid off because the company you work for can no longer afford you due to their increased tax bill... I guess you could call that a 100% personal tax rate for those people!

Fair argument. But how likely is that scenario? If these highly profitable oil companies start laying people off and use the higher corporate tax as an excuse, it'll be just that, an excuse.

Post: #29

I'm an American in Ontario and as far as I know, no Canadian government official anywhere in Canada stood up and fought FATCA--the Crucifixion of dual citizens in this country to the IRS. That act ALONE negates anything good they do in the future until they fix it.

It would be like Judas Iscariot donating to a colony of lepers after betraying Christ for thirty pieces of silver. He'd need a helluva lot more than that to make up for it.

So this election then is another betrayal... one that will result in catastrophic unemployment for everyone involved (except those Boomers who voted them in--who merely want more stolen money injected into their checks every month).

A few years ago I'd considered moving to Calgary. Soooo, I called the tourist place up and requested info. I got a nice, glossy booklet in the mail about how great a city it was. Great food. Great people. I nodded, uh huh, yeah I guess... and I started to flip through it thinking I could maybe deal with the horrific winters when I came to the middle section which said:

QUEER CALGARY in big bubbly rainbow font.

A long screed of leftist dribble ensued about how compassionate they are for homos and parades and AIDS, the whole clammy lot. After that I knew it was only a matter of time before that province went to Hell.

But hey maybe they can make snow cones for the demons that are on their way.

Post: #30

(05-07-2015 11:10 AM)Nima Wrote:  There is no spending problems. Social programs are important and if I have to pay more in taxes to support them, I'm okay with it.

if you don't believe that, despite the fact we take in the most and spend the most, then i'm not sure what anyone could ever do to convince you.

i guess we should spend infinitely forever, notwithstanding our means and the private sector should shut up and buck up, irrespective of the effect.

Post: #31

Every other member here talks about "fags" and gay people. WTF does that have to do with the discussion? Do you guys tape your ass holes before bed in case some "fags" decides to break in your house and ass rape you? Both in this thread and the oil sands thread.

(05-07-2015 11:24 AM)Soothesayer Wrote:  So this election then is another betrayal... one that will result in catastrophic unemployment for everyone involved (except those Boomers who voted them in--who merely want more stolen money injected into their checks every month).

Boomers didn't vote anyone in. Alberta is the youngest province in the entire country (average age is 36.5). Alberta also has the "highest proportion of people who are of working age." Workers, who happen to be young, voted the NDP in. You go worry about them "fags."

Post: #32

(05-07-2015 10:42 AM)Nima Wrote:  1) The conservatives got rid of the flat tax back in March. It's not an NDP proposal.
...
Conclusion: the difference between the NDP and conservative proposals are 500 dollars! That's what you guys are worried about?

2) They want to review the comically low royalties that the oil companies are paying the province.
...
If they do increase it, anything over the current rate will go into savings. Fantastic idea.

3) A 2% increase in corporate tax. The corporate tax rate right now is a joke. Even 12% is a joke.

1. The Conservatives proposed a bad idea in their budget (progressive tax). It could have been changed with this election. Of all the parties running, the Wild Rose proposed not raising taxes, but instead lowering spending. The proposed progressive tax would not go into effect until the summer. So as of right now we have a flat tax. The Wild Rose (theoretically) would have kept that. The NDP on the other hand proposed a harsher progressive tax. So they proposed the worst option. As I pointed out a few times on the other thread, it's not the taxes now that I am worried about, it's the taxes they could become. Do you think it is a bad thing for an investor, businessman, or employer to try to make long terms plans? Do you not see how any political party that proposes more spending (when we are already overspending) and more taxes will continue to head in that direction? The issue is not that the PCs are angels (they are not) and the NDP are demons, it's that with the exception of the Wild Rose they all proposed economically unsettling plans.

2. Comically low? Who gets to decide that, you? Is there some fairness index that you subscribe to?

Sure, putting the royalty money into savings is a great idea. This is what we are supposed to be doing already. It's all well and nice to talk a good game about savings. I hope they do it as well. But the reality is that all parties talk about "saving" from one side of their mouth, and then talk about upping spending and entitlements from the other.

Let's quickly examine some of the entitlements they would like to doll out:
* increase funding for child care
* freeze tuition for university and college students
* reduce class sizes / hire more teachers
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta...-1.3063567
[also, while you ad hominem the "rednecks" for their paranoia, another part of their platform is to not allow parents to opt their kids out of classes they find controversial... we can all imagine where that will lead]

3. Again with the personal value statements. A joke? I find it to be refreshing and competitive. So do a lot of people who choose to do business here. Who is right?

To be fair, there is a small business tax credit (even for corporations), so very few will be affected right away (as the NDP has said). The issue is the trend, not the dollar amount. Overspend, raise budgets, tax more.


You seem to think taxation is a very good thing indeed, and you also seem to indicate you would like all of us to pay more taxes. How about being the change you want to see, and cutting the new NDP government a cheque for an extra $5000 right now to put your money where your mouth is?

Post: #33

(05-07-2015 11:10 AM)Nima Wrote:  Social programs are important

No, they are not. They are a massive waste, incentivize dependent and destructive behavior, and create giant invasive bureaucracies.

(05-07-2015 11:10 AM)Nima Wrote:  and if I have to pay more in taxes to support them, I'm okay with it.

I am not. So when you advocate for more taxes, what you are really doing is trying to make me pay for programs I disagree with and that you want. How about starting some charities and think tanks and raising the money yourself if you think it's so important, instead of asking a third party to steal it from other people?

Post: #34

While I don't like the NDP victory in the least bit, Nima is right that the people have spoken, and they are young, working, and they want more social programs and more spending, they don't even seem to mind being taxed for it. They particurlaly revile social conservatism too, and I suspect that social conservatism might be dead in this country under this generation. This is a general undercurrent that for the last decade has seemed to sweep across Canada.

When I walked into the polling station, I knew immediately the NDP would take my riding. It was filled with young, urban, professionals, and often-times hipster voters, and I've seen this happen before in Toronto (Spadina election).

In Canada there are only 2 Conservative governments remaining, the Federal Conservatives, and the Newfoundland Conservatives (who will most likely be turfed out in September). If the Feds lose in October, there's a good chance that there will be no conservative party anywhere in Canada at any level of government. This isn't a co-incidence.

The problem with the conservatives, is that that while they are a steady guiding hand, and an ideal fiscal stalwart, they're quite frankly...Conservative in their social values. And the voter "uprisings" happening across the country, are essentially the yuppies, the young, professionals, the urbanites, and they're declaring hard, and loud that social conservatism has no place in modern Canadian society. Immigrants, are evenly split between left and right, with more slightly favoring the right (Canada is the only western nation where non-whites vote mostly conservative, or right of centre).

Whether we agree or not is moot, this is the state of affairs here. Canadians are tolerant, far more tolerant than Americans, and their voting patterns have expressed that. Whoever says democracy doesn't work, should simply judge by this election and historic voter turnout. The people have spoken, and loud. Even if I personally don't have the highest opinion of the victor.

To show how far Canadians are socially to the left, you only have to go back 3 years to 2012, Alberta's last election. A contents between Wildrose, the party that I support, and the Conservatives. The conservatives were the most leftist party at the time, and the Wildrose was considered far right.

Polls indicated a Wildrose majority. Then the unthinkable happened; three days before the election, Wildrose members were overheard gay bashing, and talking the kind of talk that is best left in the locker room or the online forums.

Danielle Smith, the Wildrose leader at the time, had decided to stick to her principles, and her men, and didn't publicly ostracize them for their remarks after questions began to be asked. These were very socially conservative viewpoints expressed, divisive to say the least. Basically this turn of events meant that Wildrose, polling for a majority government, blew it, as the electorate turned on them. This was possibly the loudest, most vicious, most brazen and open rejection of socially conservative values in the country.

Election 2012



Election 2015



The way forward for the Conservatives across the whole country and not just Alberta, to continue their steady support of fiscal conservatism, balanced budgets, and prudent management of the business sector, while dumping social conservatism, at least the biggest wedge issues. Unfortunately for them, Canada just isn't a socially a conservative country, but hopefully it is a fiscally prudent one.

The electorate, quite frankly isn't interested in gay bashing, abortion, Christian values, and so on. They want good jobs, good services, and clean lakes to go swimming in and fuck some girl in the ass by.

For me, I vote Wildrose despite their stance on social issues, only because I like the idea of low taxes, and I'm okay with a service or two not being funded. I'm also okay with the idea of cutting admin staff from government to make way for more nurses and teachers. I'm okay with larger class sizes. I cast my vote. The electorate, among other things have decided that's not the direction they want Alberta, and to a greater extent Canada to move to. And that's how a democracy works.

Post: #35

(05-07-2015 01:17 PM)DjembaDjemba Wrote:  For me, I vote Wildrose despite their stance on social issues, only because I like the idea of low taxes, and I'm ok with a service or two not being funded. I'm also okay with the idea of cutting admin staff from government to make way for more nurses and teachers. I'm okay with larger class sizes. I cast my vote. The electorate, among other things have decided that's not the direction they want Alberta, and to a greater extent Canada to move to. And that's how a democracy works.

i think social conservatives haven't yet realized they lost the culture war some years ago. things aren't going back.

that said, what harm can social conservatives actually do in gov't? the courts have already said that the charter of rights entrenches gay marriage, abortions and prevents the province from setting up a state religion.

what the charter does not protect is preventing those of us in the private sector from becoming tax serfs and debt slaves (and it sure doesn't protect the outright deferred theft that is going on directed at my kid's generation). that was the single biggest thing influencing my vote and the social conservative stuff mattered to me not at all.

Post: #36

(05-07-2015 10:44 AM)Atlantic Wrote:  What do people think this will mean for immigration...

Nothing, provinces can only lobby but not set policy on immigration. You want a liberal win in federal politics for loose immigration policies. Conservatives don't like immigrants and the NDP has a union loyalty that is opposed to foreign workers.

Post: #37

(05-07-2015 01:38 PM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 10:44 AM)Atlantic Wrote:  What do people think this will mean for immigration...

Nothing, provinces can only lobby but not set policy on immigration. You want a liberal win in federal politics for loose immigration policies. Conservatives don't like immigrants and the NDP has a union loyalty that is opposed to foreign workers.

Neither of those things are true. No Canadian party is against immigration. The Liberals, Conservatives and NDP are very pro immigration. Canada effectively has no anti-immigrant party as of yet.

They do however differ in their approaches who should come here and from where. Both parties tacitly agree on the number of immigrants coming. The conservatives went one step further by allowing TFWs as well immigrants. Pretty much doubling the rates of people coming into Canada.

Post: #38

(05-07-2015 01:17 PM)DjembaDjemba Wrote:  While I don't like the NDP victory in the least bit, Nima is right that the people have spoken, and they are young, working, and they want more social programs and more spending, they don't even seem to mind being taxed for it. They particurlaly revile social conservatism too, and I suspect that social conservatism might be dead in this country under this generation. This is a general undercurrent that for the last decade has seemed to sweep across Canada.

When I walked into the polling station, I knew immediately the NDP would take my riding. It was filled with young, urban, professionals, and often-times hipster voters, and I've seen this happen before in Toronto (Spadina election).

In Canada there are only 2 Conservative governments remaining, the Federal Conservatives, and the Newfoundland Conservatives (who will most likely be turfed out in September). If the Feds lose in October, there's a good chance that there will be no conservative party anywhere in Canada at any level of government. This isn't a co-incidence.

The problem with the conservatives, is that that while they are a steady guiding hand, and an ideal fiscal stalwart, they're quite frankly...Conservative in their social values. And the voter "uprisings" happening across the country, are essentially the yuppies, the young, professionals, the urbanites, and they're declaring hard, and loud that social conservatism has no place in modern Canadian society. Immigrants, are evenly split between left and right, with more slightly favoring the right (Canada is the only western nation where non-whites vote mostly conservative, or right of centre).

Whether we agree or not is moot, this is the state of affairs here. Canadians are tolerant, far more tolerant than Americans, and their voting patterns have expressed that. Whoever says democracy doesn't work, should simply judge by this election and historic voter turnout. The people have spoken, and loud. Even if I personally don't have the highest opinion of the victor.

To show how far Canadians are socially to the left, you only have to go back 3 years to 2012, Alberta's last election. A contents between Wildrose, the party that I support, and the Conservatives. The conservatives were the most leftist party at the time, and the Wildrose was considered far right.

Polls indicated a Wildrose majority. Then the unthinkable happened; three days before the election, Wildrose members were overheard gay bashing, and talking the kind of talk that is best left in the locker room or the online forums.

Danielle Smith, the Wildrose leader at the time, had decided to stick to her principles, and her men, and didn't publicly ostracize them for their remarks after questions began to be asked. These were very socially conservative viewpoints expressed, divisive to say the least. Basically this turn of events meant that Wildrose, polling for a majority government, blew it, as the electorate turned on them. This was possibly the loudest, most vicious, most brazen and open rejection of socially conservative values in the country.

The way forward for the Conservatives across the whole country and not just Alberta, to continue their steady support of fiscal conservatism, balanced budgets, and prudent management of the business sector, while dumping social conservatism, at least the biggest wedge issues. Unfortunately for them, Canada just isn't a socially a conservative country, but hopefully it is a fiscally prudent one.

The electorate, quite frankly isn't interested in gay bashing, abortion, Christian values, and so on. They want good jobs, good services, and clean lakes to go swimming in and fuck some girl in the ass by.

For me, I vote Wildrose despite their stance on social issues, only because I like the idea of low taxes, and I'm okay with a service or two not being funded. I'm also okay with the idea of cutting admin staff from government to make way for more nurses and teachers. I'm okay with larger class sizes. I cast my vote. The electorate, among other things have decided that's not the direction they want Alberta, and to a greater extent Canada to move to. And that's how a democracy works.

Based on those riding maps, I'm going to stick with my Ontario comparison. Electoral power is centered on the urban areas, but the economic engine and resources are in the rural areas. Those living in the urban areas determine the policies...even if its to the provinces detriment as a whole (ie. they will turn off the oil, despite the fact that the oil is probably responsible for why they have a job in calgary in the first place).

Same deal with southern ontario and northern ontario. Those in the urban areas want gigantic parks and veto power for indians despite those policies meaning billions of lost mining and forestry royalties for the government.

Post: #39

(05-07-2015 01:42 PM)DjembaDjemba Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 01:38 PM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 10:44 AM)Atlantic Wrote:  What do people think this will mean for immigration...

Nothing, provinces can only lobby but not set policy on immigration. You want a liberal win in federal politics for loose immigration policies. Conservatives don't like immigrants and the NDP has a union loyalty that is opposed to foreign workers.

Neither of those things are true. No Canadian party is against immigration. The Liberals, Conservatives and NDP are very pro immigration. Canada effectively has no anti-immigrant party as of yet.

They do however differ in their approaches who should come here and from where. Both parties tacitly agree on the number of immigrants coming. The conservatives went one step further by allowing TFWs as well immigrants. Pretty much doubling the rates of people coming into Canada.

That is not true. The NDP wants to get rid of the tfw program.

http://i.imgur.com/D9x9dx7.jpg

Post: #40

Its still too soon to have heard back from most of my family and friends, but what I have heard so far has been polarizing.

- Family runs the largest road building company in northern Alberta. Most of the roads in and out of the Sands, from Red Dear north to all the shit towns pumping the resources, have been them.

Verdict:

Business as usual. Roads in Alberta are sacred, dont fuck with it.

- Family working for top three oil and gas company.

Verdict:

It was fucked when oil tanked and they laid off too many field men. Now supremely fucked as they cant find enough talent. What election? They just need experienced men.

All I am trying to say here is that this has been a long time coming. I wish Alberta was a little more realistic in its voting, but thats just not the way Albertans are. A minority government would have been good, send them back to an election in a bit once things have cooled down and they realize that college students most likely make terrible high profile politicians.

So even though I live in BC, almost everyone I care for is from Alberta or still living there. My cousin took off to SK a couple years back and is killing it there, laughing at the retards in Alberta who didn't learn from SK's mistakes.

Realistically the province will be more than OK. There are too many entrepreneurs, skilled workers, educated people and large tight families to think anything but. However, there will be a fascinating experiment where money and politics plays a head to head with a province full of vocal, sweet, redneck, open minded, multicultural, entrepreneurial, conservatives.

I am proud as fuck to be an Albertan. And even more so when democracy speaks so damn loud, even though I wouldn't have voted NDP.

Post: #41

For foreigners, here's a great article on how the Progressive Conservatives lost the election so badly. I should have posted this in the first place.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada...ice-tories

Quote:1. Pick the wrong symbol of generational renewal

Alison Redford was supposed to be the leader who would revitalize the Tory government. She was a symbol of the province’s generational change, and its desire to play a more active role in Confederation. Unfortunately, she suffered from serious managerial deficits and entitlement problems; her tenure lasted about two years. She resigned last March amid a series of spending scandals.

2. Ignore your grassroots

The first experiment a failure, the PCs brought in Jim Prentice. A steady hand to right the keel. A respected Conservative MP and cabinet minister with none of the apparent sense of self-importance that plagued his predecessor, Prentice was the best on-paper leader the party could have asked for — and he was elected to the head of the party with only 23,000 votes, a fraction of the number that supported previous premiers. This should have been the first sign that the PCs were in trouble, and that their base had jumped ship during the reign of Redford. Prentice needed to fix his party; instead the lead-up to the election was dogged with infighting and questionable disqualifications of popular candidates, which further alienated devoted supporters and volunteers.

3. Hand-pick cabinet ministers. Put them in the wrong places

In a bid to consolidate his base of social conservatives, Prentice found Gordon Dirks — a former Saskatchewan politician with deep roots in the religious community. He then placed Dirks in one of the reddest of the Red Tory ridings in Calgary. After last October’s surprisingly competitive by-election, Dirks, then Education Minister, was called out by the ethics commissioner for punting modular classrooms in his riding to the top of the waiting list.

4. Cheat to win

Under the auspices of a de facto “merger” of right-wing parties, Prentice’s team orchestrated a hasty agreement between his party, and the struggling remnants of the upstart opposition Wildrose. In December, nine Wildrosers crossed the floor to the governing Tories, a collapse of opposition that was unprecedented in Canadian political history. Prentice failed to understand the significance of Wildrose to Albertans; to voters, that opposition represented the only real check on the PC’s ancient, entrenched and far-reaching power base. The Wildrosers’ defection was seen as opportunistic and underhanded. Further, the move alienated the left-leaning coalition that came together to vote PC in 2012 to keep Wildrose out of power.

5. Blame Albertans

Prentice responded to a catastrophic drop in oil prices by telling Albertans they needed to “look in the mirror” to understand the cause of the province’s financial woes. Albertans had been enjoying the oil-plumped fruits of government spending for far too long, he said. This may be true, but it failed to acknowledge that the actual controllers of that spending have been, for two generations, the PCs themselves. The only action Albertans need to look in the mirror about is the habit of voting the PCs to power.

6. Over promise. Under deliver.

After January, Prentice went on a doomsday blitz to warn every Albertan within two feet of a radio or a television that an austerity budget was coming. A once-in-a-generation budget. A transformational plan. After Albertans became resigned to massive hikes and rollbacks, Prentice then dropped a bit of wishy washy weakness that neither raised taxes and spending enough for the left, nor cut deeply enough for the right. Add a raft of unpopular tax increases that let corporations off the hook, the PC’s remaining right-wing base was not only alienated, but also betrayed

7. Anger? What anger? Is that anger?

Prentice ignored the quiet competence of the NDP’s Rachel Notley until it was too late. He chose to dismiss the fact that of the nine Wildrose floor crossers, most quit before they could face doomed nomination battles. Of the six who stuck it out, only three survived. Angry Progressive Conservatives (and a few angry Wildrosers) turfed Danielle Smith in her Highwood nomination battle, casting her from political life. The control panel was beeping. Angry red buttons everywhere.

8. Go to the polls anyway. You’re the PCs, right?

Prentice disregarded his party’s own fixed election date to call the vote a year ahead of schedule. He dropped the writ on April 7. Ostensibly, he said, this was about the transformational budget that wasn’t. In reality, the economy was tanking along with the oil price, and this was his moment to secure a four-year mandate in the face of a weakened opposition.

9. Change your budget. But not enough

Any pretence that the election was about that budget was destroyed on April 21, when Prentice rolled back an unpopular plan to reduce a charitable tax credit. What he didn’t touch were those corporate tax rates, despite the fact that raising corporate taxes remains widely popular. This gave the NDP a real policy stick. The beatings commenced. Two days later, Prentice challenged Notley on those corporate taxes and, after misstating the party’s figures, told the personable, likeable female leader that “math is difficult.”

10. When all else fails, try panicked fearmongering

Terrifying the bejesus out of Albertans over the prospect of an NDP economy might have worked if the PCs hadn’t been so bad at managing the budget themselves. There’s material there: the NDP is proposing a royalty review, and its plans for corporate tax hikes will put Alberta closer to Quebec and Ontario’s rate. That said, the PC’s entire campaign strategy missed the plot; when he came in, Prentice had a year and a half to fix the party, build a rapport, and establish trust with voters. He failed on every count, instead rushing a vote on a record that he hadn’t yet established.

Post: #42

Promising news from Bloomberg

Quote:Investors Urged to Avoid Oil Sands After Alberta Election

Investors may want to steer clear of oil sands developers and coal producers and buy royalty stocks and companies with assets outside Alberta.

That’s the advice of portfolio managers and analysts after energy stocks declined Wednesday following the surprise election victory by the New Democratic Party in Alberta.

An index of Canadian energy companies plunged the most in three months after the win by Rachel Notley’s NDP, which has pledged to boost corporate taxes, review the government’s royalty rates for energy producers and phase out coal power.

Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. is among the most exposed to a potential hike in royalties and stricter environmental policies, while electricity supplier TransAlta Corp. would suffer from the new government’s vow to shut coal plants sooner than planned, according to analysts at BMO Nesbitt Burns and RBC Dominion Securities.

“Oil sands to me is public enemy No. 1 in the new premier-elect’s mind,” said Eric Nuttall, a Toronto-based fund manager focused on energy at Sprott Asset Management LP. “The investment thesis in all of those stocks evaporated overnight.”

Calgary-based Canadian Oil Sands dropped 6.4 percent on Wednesday, the biggest decline in almost two months. Other oil sands operators also fell, including Cenovus Energy Inc., down 6 percent, and Meg Energy Corp., off 8.1 percent. TransAlta declined 3.8 percent, its biggest drop since November.

Outside Alberta

Next, favor producers and drillers that operate outside Alberta, analysts said. Nuttall bought shares Wednesday of Crescent Point Energy Corp., the largest producer in Saskatchewan. Crescent Point was little changed, compared with a 2.5 percent decline in the main energy index.

Crescent Point, Crew Energy Inc., Leucrotta Exploration Inc. and Raging River Exploration Inc. are among producers with less than 20 percent of their output in Alberta, Dundee Capital Markets analysts led by Brian Kristjansen wrote in a note. Computer Modelling Group Ltd., ShawCor Ltd. and Enerflex Ltd. are all oilfield services companies that generate most of their revenue outside Alberta, according to Michael Mazar at BMO.

Also, look at energy investment companies that generate revenue from producers drilling on their land, such as PrairieSky Royalty Ltd., according to Dundee. They’re the likely beneficiaries of moves by producers away from drilling on government-owned land as the industry prepares for higher levies from the province. PrairieSky was up 2.8 percent while Freehold Royalties Ltd., an investment company with some holdings exposed to a royalty hike, was down 2 percent.

Pipeline Stocks

Advice is split on owning stocks of companies that transport and process fuels in Alberta. Analysts at Raymond James Ltd. argue stocks like pipeline builder TransCanada Corp. aren’t directly exposed to reduced investment in the sector while RBC advises to sell pipeline and so-called midstream companies with operations in Alberta. TransCanada dipped 2.4 percent, the largest drop since January. Enbridge Inc. also fell.

Analysts are also conflicted about how much producers with oil refineries, such as Imperial Oil Ltd. and Suncor Energy Inc., could offset losses from potentially higher royalties by boosting processing of crude in Alberta, a move the pro-labor NDP had pledged to support. Suncor, Canada’s largest energy company, had its biggest decline in three months.

One of the best ways to prepare for the uncertainty of a political sea change in Alberta is to own a bit of everything, said Ryan Bushell, a fund manager at Leon Frazer & Associates in Toronto.

“All bets are off” on the energy sector as investors try to gauge exactly what policies Notley will enact, Bushell said. “We always try to be diversified as a rule.”

Failing all else, the best refuge to escape any further carnage for Canadian energy stocks is to hide in cash.

“I was 74 percent cash heading into yesterday’s vote,” Nuttall said. “I think we have a few more days of pain. There’s going to be capital exodus from American investors.”

Post: #43

^^^ haha well if the business lobby was so worried about it they should have thrown more money at the elections and strategized better. Trouble is the "conservatives" (use that term loosely this day and age) are split up in so many distinct groups it's hard to coordinate and one faction always seems to screw it up for the others.

I have a buddy who's in equity research in Toronto who basically says to get out of all Canadian oil & gas players right now.

I know that's sacrilege in Canada though (plus don't your RRSP's have to have a certain percentage of "Canadian content" not unlike the radio stations?).

Post: #44

(05-07-2015 04:54 PM)Tresdus Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 01:42 PM)DjembaDjemba Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 01:38 PM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 10:44 AM)Atlantic Wrote:  What do people think this will mean for immigration...

Nothing, provinces can only lobby but not set policy on immigration. You want a liberal win in federal politics for loose immigration policies. Conservatives don't like immigrants and the NDP has a union loyalty that is opposed to foreign workers.

Neither of those things are true. No Canadian party is against immigration. The Liberals, Conservatives and NDP are very pro immigration. Canada effectively has no anti-immigrant party as of yet.

They do however differ in their approaches who should come here and from where. Both parties tacitly agree on the number of immigrants coming. The conservatives went one step further by allowing TFWs as well immigrants. Pretty much doubling the rates of people coming into Canada.

That is not true. The NDP wants to get rid of the tfw program.

http://i.imgur.com/D9x9dx7.jpg

The TFW program, and Canada's skilled immigration program are two very different beasts.

Under Canada's regular immigration program, up to 280,000 immigrants arrive each year (Its the highest per capita legal immigration quota in the world). The primary breadwinners are the skilled, and it's a points system roughly based on education level, linguistic ability, and age.

But since the permanent legal immigration quoata is too low relative to business needs, and hasn't been enough to plug to hole in certain industries, the conservatives expanded the TFW program to deal with immediate labour shortages.

No party, the Liberals, NDP, or Conservatives, are against the skilled immigration program which has been around for almost 30 years now (but the floodgates were truly opened under Conservative Mulroney, the liberals before him simply removed the racial component of picking immigrants).

The NDP and Liberals are both critical of the TFW program because it's rife with abuse. Instead of finding specialists, or very low skill workers (McDonalds, Hotel cleaners etc) like it was designed to, companies simply started hiring TFW right off the get go without even trying to hire local. Welders, Plumbers, Pipefitters, Bank Tellers, are all positions that TFW are not necessary for. Companies have also shirked their responsibility in hiring new apprentices to train, instead relying on already made labour abroad. The issue with this is certifications and licensing, which isn't usually transferable. Either way, the program has been ruined by a few greedy companies and it has been rolled back.

That's the difference between them. Being anti TFW program isn't the same as anti-immigration.

Post: #45

(05-08-2015 09:10 AM)DjembaDjemba Wrote:  That's the difference between them. Being anti TFW program isn't the same as anti-immigration.

Yeah I was wrong. That's true, NDP is only anti tfw and not anti immigration.

Post: #46

[img][/img]

Well I suppose that I should explain the reason why I voted for the NDP, trust me it wasn't an easy decision as I've never voted for the party either provincially or federally but in the end I voted for the party that I believe will benefit Albertan workers the most. As many of you know, I am a tradesman in the oil sands and have worked at various sites in the Fort McMurray area as well as at the refineries in Edmonton, I've seen the good, the bad and the ugly. I moved to Alberta nine years ago and own a property here, I'm proud to call the place home and will likely live here for years to come, I've also recommended to many friends and members of my family to move out here and dozens of guys have moved to Alberta from other provinces and even foreign countries based on my writings over on the oil sands thread. As such, I've become quite concerned with the deteriorating conditions that us blue collar workers in northern Alberta have to put up, some of the things that I've witnessed over the years would blow your mind and in my opinion, its time for some major changes in the industry. Now I will go on a long winded rant about the bullshit that oil and gas companies are trying to fuck us over with:

TLDR: Alberta oil workers are seeing our quality of life and standard of living go down due to companies flying in TFWs from all over the world who send most of their money home, as well as inter-provincial migrants who do the same, the lucrative jobs in the oil patch should go to Albertans first, Canadians second and foreigners last. If this means a reduction in oil activity, then I"m okay with that, the system is rotten and guys are getting killed on a weekly basis, its time for things to change. Here is a list of things myself and over 100,000 oil sands workers have to deal with when we go to work on the large oil sands facilities up north in Fort McMurray, Cold Lake and Peace River areas:

-Flying into site from Calgary/Edmonton: We have our bags inspected at the airport for alcohol and/or drugs, if the dog gets a whiff of anything, you will be fired. A friend of mine had marijuana residue on his laptop and lost his job because of that, they also bring the drug dogs onto the job site to sniff our lunch bags and they even take them into the camps and wake us up at 3am to sniff for drugs. I believe in drug-free work sites, especially heavy industry but the constant searching of workers makes us feel like criminals.

-Drug and Alcohol Testing: We have to piss in a cup before taking a job, which is fine as everyone should be fit-for-duty and if you can't lay off that stuff for a few days then you should seek help and not go to work with heavy machinery. We also have to piss if we're involved in a safety incident, even if you're in a parked truck and someone hits you with theirs, you have to piss, you also have to do one for "reasonable suspicion". I'm okay with those but the oil companies are now trying to introduce random piss testing onsite, which I"m not okay with, thankfully the courts have thrown out Suncor's bid to do that: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/26/...37680.html

-Electronic Monitoring on-site: Now the companies want us to wear electronic bracelets on site like a fucking dog or a criminal on probation so they can track our moves, again I am not comfortable with this for issues of personal liberty: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/s...-1.3001658

Deplorable Camp Conditions: Fortunately the camps being built these days are getting better but there's still some shitty ones out there, I contacted a serious viral infection called MRSA while staying in a camp that can only be described as filthy and disgusting, I was in-and-out of the ER for a year, the worst being a week long stint where I had to have anti-biotics injected into me for an hour, twice a day, I have scars all over my body from it. A co-worker blogged about it and Suncor had him fired, here's a news article about the camp: http://www.torontosun.com/news/2010/04/2...1326.html. The companies fly us up there then feed us shit food and lodge us in dirty camps, then blame us when we get scabies, lice, etc. Here's the guy's blog: https://thenewmtprivate.wordpress.com/20...r-firebag/

The Highway of Death: Every other week oil sands workers die on highway 63 and 881, the Alberta government has proposed twinning it and after years of lobbying, have finally started it, but its a long way from completion, I've come across accidents on it where young people have died and a girl I went to high school with died in a big seven car crash there two years ago, along with her two year old child and unborn baby she was carrying. http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/10/31/...82966.html

Flood of TFWs: In recent years, I've worked on job sites that were crawling with TFWs, many who could barely speak English, if at all, if that isn't a saety issue, then I don't know what is. Here's what happened at CNRL Horizon during its construction when they hired a contractor company from China who supplied their own workers, a huge tank fell on them, killing three and maiming several others, I saw photos of blood, guts and brains all over the tank, two of my former co-workers were inside of it but got out just seconds before the collapse: http://www.macleans.ca/general/firm-plea...withdrawn/

That happened almost ten years ago but its still going on, Canadian tradesmen are being laid off in huge numbers and being replaced by unskilled third world labour who can't speak English and are unaware of their rights, underpaid and abused on job sites: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/c...-1.2750730

Fly-In/Fly-Out Guys: I can't blame these guys from flying in from all over Canada to make a better wage than they do back home, but its at the expense of Albertan workers. These guys work for a lot less than us but they are willing to do so as they own or rent cheap houses back home and don't have the type of payments that us Albertans do. They also drive down our wages (as do the TFWs) and would never stick up for their rights or dream of going on strike out of fear of losing their FIFO gig.

IS THERE A LABOUR SHORTAGE IN THE OIL SANDS?
I don't think that there is, I think that there is a shortage of workers willing to put up with the shitty work conditions up there these days, it was pretty good back in 2004-2008 but it has gotten progressively worse, to the point that I have considered not going back up there and just working in Edmonton instead, really there isn't too much incentive to go up there anymore. The first big boom lasted from 2004-2008 and companies were complaining about a lack of skilled labour, they should have ran campaigns with the support of the Alberta and federal governments all over Canada, they should have went to job fairs and schools from Victoria to St.John's telling people how to get these jobs. Judging by the reaction that my oil sands thread got, a lot of young Canadians are willing to make the move and do the work but a lot of them just didn't know how to go about it. So what happened? The government and private businesses flooded the country with TFWs, I was in Cebu, Philippines in February 2013 and while walking down the street I noticed a school that offered courses through the Canadian Welding Bureau. I stopped in and took a look at the place, it was a run down dump with a few welders in it, they were on an eight month fast-track program that saw them get their journeyman ticket and a one-way flight to Alberta to weld. Why couldn't CWB do the same thing in towns with high unemployment across Canada? http://www.philstar.com/cebu-business/77...-open-cebu

Anyway, this rant is getting long, basically I welcome change in the industry that will see our organized labour movement more empowered and make the oil sands a great place to work which will attract good, hard working skilled people who will contribute to Alberta and Canada. I want to see the oil companies be help more accountable in their treatment of workers and I want to see things done in a safe and sustainable manner. If low oil prices and the NDP provincial government make for a slow down in the oil patch then so be it, the fast pace growth over the past decade was not sustainable, its time to take a breather and plan ahead for the future, I am optimistic that it will be bright.

Post: #47

Fantastic post Scotian.

I would like to have a good post to follow this up, but you put almost everything I could ever think to in that post. Politics aside, this is one of the major reasons I see Alberta having such an identity crisis.

Post: #48

(05-08-2015 10:06 PM)scotian Wrote:  [img][/img]

Well I suppose that I should explain the reason why I voted for the NDP, trust me it wasn't an easy decision as I've never voted for the party either provincially or federally but in the end I voted for the party that I believe will benefit Albertan workers the most. As many of you know, I am a tradesman in the oil sands and have worked at various sites in the Fort McMurray area as well as at the refineries in Edmonton, I've seen the good, the bad and the ugly. I moved to Alberta nine years ago and own a property here, I'm proud to call the place home and will likely live here for years to come,

....

or a slow down in the oil patch then so be it, the fast pace growth over the past decade was not sustainable, its time to take a breather and plan ahead for the future, I am optimistic that it will be bright.

Now you are talking like a logger. This is why they all vote NDP in northern ontario. However, your situation sounds even shittier than logging camps, here's why:

1. No TFWs: Most guys are owner operators, or union...I say that now, but there is a current forestry worker shortage.

2. No drug testing except commercial drivers. Its so bad in some spots that the local health unit sends substance abuse counsellors into the logging camps.

The rest of the stuff like squalid living conditions, MRSA, lice etc are the same in general. Some of the exceptional companies keep their employees happy though, they are small outfits, with 'the best of the best' operators. They have nice trailers, a cook, and dirtbikes that they race after work.

Post: #49

Ontario's conservatives have just elected Patrick Brown as their leader. He is anti-abortion, anti-sex ed, and does not believe evolution should be taught in schools. He will not win the election in 2018.

Conservatives who play culture wars will lose at the polls. They need to get their shit together and perhaps study the likes of Tony Abbott and David Cameron, not Mike Huckabee or Scott Walker. Ontario will remain a fiscally ruined province until the conservatives become a real opposition party which is actually a threat and can keep the liberals in check.

As for Alberta, the whole country is watching. It's had the lowest unemployment rate, and highest per person income in Canada for the past 20 years, even with previous oil busts. If in 2019 unemployment is sitting higher than 5.5%, the budget is not balanced, and median incomes haven't grown, we could safely say the government has failed.

Post: #50

(05-08-2015 10:06 PM)scotian Wrote:  [img][/img]

TLDR: Alberta oil workers are seeing our quality of life and standard of living go down due to companies flying in TFWs from all over the world who send most of their money home, as well as inter-provincial migrants who do the same, the lucrative jobs in the oil patch should go to Albertans first, Canadians second and foreigners last. If this means a reduction in oil activity, then I"m okay with that, the system is rotten and guys are getting killed on a weekly basis, its time for things to change. Here is a list of things myself and over 100,000 oil sands workers have to deal with when we go to work on the large oil sands facilities up north in Fort McMurray, Cold Lake and Peace River areas:

If the government allowed corporations to run amok unchecked they'd literally enslave us. Without regulations corporations would have no qualms about sending in children to factories again if they still could (they still do in India/Bangladesh), and they would have no issues of rolling back years of safety regulations if they weren't enforced.

America is a great example, the wages are comparatively low, most tradesmen have no tickets and aren't fully qualified or have no formal way to test their ability. Trade tickets are given in house thus companies can take them away when they fire workers. Hence the quality of work is generally questionable in those kind of circumstances.

The TFW program is a sham. It's our answer to a refugee crisis we never had.