Post: #3926

I would be more worried about the economics of the situation.

It is much cheaper to produce oil in the US than it is Canada. Shale oil is much cheaper than the oilsands. On top of that our labour costs are much higher than theirs. If the NDP does raise existing royalty rates if could effectively kill any future investment in oilsands projects.

There still is the Bakken field in Saskatchewan. It is more economical than the oilsands.

As Scotian has said throughout the thread if you have a trade you should have less problems finding work.

Post: #3927

(05-05-2015 10:33 PM)komatiite Wrote:  If any of you guys working in the oil business actually think the NDP win is a good thing, you may be functionally retarded...

While the NDP distracts the average arts degree hipster with gay pride festivals and mandatory transsexual all inclusive bathrooms in legislature, royalties will creep up nicely. Mark my words.

Got any other arguments other than just insulting people?

If you think oil companies are just gonna abandon all the oil in Alberta because of a corporate tax increase from 10->12% which is extremly fucking low still (one of the lowest in Canada, US is 40%, Canada in total is 26,5%) then you have no clue how business works. The PCs ran this province into the ground.

Everyone makes it sound like the NDP is going full communist which is hilarious.

And it's fucking snowing. Thanks NDP.

Post: #3928

^ aren't you from Germany? You have no idea what the NDP has done to other provinces. Look up Bob Rae in Ontario or Romanow in Sask. They are absolute nutjobs with no understanding of economics. I have no idea what their game plan will be but the industry is quite volatile with the low oil prices as we speak so she better make sure she tiptoes around that. I mean, she now has MLAs who are like in their early 20s talking about LGBT rights on Global TV last night, can you imagine those pussies having to meet with highly intelligent oil execs? I already heard her saying she wants to start refining all oil in Alberta... With whose money sweetheart?

If she even mentions a word like "carbon capture" or "corporate tax" or "David Suzuki is a personal hero of mine" that will scare a LOT of investors.

I guess the main positive is that the NDP can now audit the 43 years of PC rule and destroy them once and for all, you KNOW Redford and Stelmach and Prentice had skeletons in their closets. which will empower the Wild Rose to win in five years. A majority of Albertans voted for WR or PC so I don't think it's a radical chance in ideology for Alberta, just more of a "rebound girl" for the people.

I do wonder about all the tradesmen shrugging this off since the NDP is "good for unions" but what the fuck are they gonna do if CNRL and Suncor abandon new projects? Government make-work projects? The Teachers, Hospitals, and Public Service folks must be dancing but I just don't see how tradesmen who depend on oil for work will benefit? Maybe they can all work in the Jack Layton Memorial Mega Refinery they will start building

Post: #3929

Albertans are absolutely sick and tired of living in the most prosperous province and having the highest individual incomes in the country.

That's why it's time to experiment with poverty and voodoo economics. A great time to import the European social model, not just for Alberta, but for all of Canada. It worked great for Europe, so I've been told. High individual income taxes, crippling business regulations, lack of employment opportunities (for everyone), cradle to the grave paycheque to paycheque living, and that's just western europe. In the sunny parts of Spain and Italy, life is even better.

Post: #3930

It's a shitty situation for the average voter. Everyone was sick of the PC party bull shit and then with all the Wildrose floor crossings that party had seemed to lose credibility. Especially how the floor crossing had taken place with the sly backroom dealings. Hopefully the NDP can't cause complete chaos for the next 4 years.



While the NDP distracts the average arts degree hipster with gay pride festivals and mandatory transsexual all inclusive bathrooms in legislature, royalties will creep up nicely. Mark my words.
[/quote]

You are spot about this one, one of the people candidates elected is a 21 year old that wants to push the LGBTQ agenda being gay himself, he made that a part of his platform.

Post: #3931

The NDP is pretty much going to setup the wildrose or PC governments for a landslide win in the next election unless they doing something extraordinary. I've read their platform and it seems pretty moderate, the only tax raises are only kicked in after 125k at an extra 1-3% capping at 200k or more. I'd prefer the liberals since they were more moderate, but voting for them in alberta is akin for voting for hitler for albertans.

I don't see too much change, it'll probably be back to business as usual with a few changes soon.

Post: #3932

Two considerations:

1. Though the past does not always equal the future, provincial governments in Alberta tend to stay in power over a decade at a time. It may not be a "quick 4 years then back to business as usual". NDP will likely start off more cautious than their supporters would prefer, but as they get comfortable with the reigns of power (like all other ruling parties) they will get emboldened. When the NDP gets emboldened, the worst of socialism is loosed.

2. They will institute (according to their platform) a progressive income tax over the flat tax AB currently has. They will frame it as "just the top 1% paying their fair share" to the proles. Once the progressive tax is in place, NO FUTURE PARTY WILL EVER GET RID OF IT. That is just not how modern democratic politics works. Then, regardless of who is in power, it will come to light that some of that "hated 1%" will have moved their investments out of the province, and others have utilized loopholes. Expanding budgets will demand more money. Then they will have to make the tax a little more progressive down the board. So even though it doesn't hurt a lot of us right now, it will be a very effective club to bludgeon us with in the future. And the beauty of it (from the NDP point of view), is that when the current government overspends (even more than the last ruling party did), such that the next ruling party will "have to" raise taxes to make up for it, the blame will not be properly laid either.


But how can one support a brutally wasteful, arrogant PC party given their actions post Klein's first term? And as much as I'd like to support the Wild Rose, they have proven themselves to be incompetent when they had the last election practically laid out for them. So hopefully the province's oil money can weather the incoming storm, and hopefully the NDP buck the historical trend and only remain in power for a short time. But that progressive tax is a game changer and just effectively removed one of the main economic advantages for moving to Alberta.

Post: #3933

(05-06-2015 07:59 AM)komatiite Wrote:  I have no idea what their game plan will be

And your whole arguement goes out of the window.

They need 12 cabinet members. Obviously no 20 year old is going to be elected into the cabinet. The rest of the MLAs are basically just there to vote on the bills, they have no other power.

I listened to a CBC interview with a oil exec today. They asked him about the stock prices that dropped about 3% and asked him if he was worried and his answer was "no". Then they asked why? And he said people are just overreacting and everything will pretty much stay the same.

Do you seriously think CNRL or Suncor would abandon new projects over a 2% tax increase? Do you know how little that is? On 1 million that is 20k.

With the PCs, they increase taxes and cut services. The NDP increases taxes and adds services. Have your pick.

Post: #3934

Tresdus: Some light reading that you can distribute at your local Marxist Leninist clubhouse:

Quote:"It’s completely devastating" for energy companies and investors, saysCanoe Financial's Rafi Tahmazian of stated plans by the newly elected government to raise corporate taxes, review the government’s take of energy revenue, scale back advocacy for pipelines and phase out coal power more quickly.

http://seekingalpha.com/news/2494556-can...a-election

Quote:In an interview with the Calgary Herald, Notley said Northern Gateway is "not the right decision."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-co...-1.3063190

Quote:n the summer of 2012, As the NDP environment critic, she said there are too many questions about the safety and impact (of fracking) on Alberta’s water supply. “If we don’t get a better understanding of what’s safe for Albertans, we run the risk of doing some really long-term damage,” Ms. Notley said. “In Alberta, we have no regulation — at all — that specifically covers fracking activity.”

Back then and still today, she suggested “there are a lot of questions that have be answered before we start holus-bolus giving out water to the fracking industry without knowing the safety that needs to come along with that.” Ultimately, Ms. Notley would like for an “independent investigation on [fracturing] technology.”

http://boereport.com/2015/05/04/ndp-stan...-industry/

Quote:Notley said during the campaign that she would initiate a review of Alberta's energy royalties, a regime that has a reputation for charging energy companies low royalties, relative to other energy jurisdictions.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/al...-1.3062700

Here is a summary of some of our new fearless leaders:
Calgary Varsity – Stephanie McLean (2 years out of law school with a couple of months of experience under her belt with her private practice opened in 2014)
Calgary Bow – Deborah Drever (still in university and living with Grandma)
Calgary Acadia – Brandy Payne (a yoga instructor)
Calgary Hawkwood – Michael Connolly (21 years old and was asked to run simply to fill the ballot)
http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/elections/alber...-1.3062840

Here's one from the NY Times:
Leftist Party’s Win in Alberta May Affect Future of Oil Sands
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/07/world/....html?_r=2

A summary:
Energy stocks take quick fall: Check
Anti Oil Sands: Check
Anti Fracking: Check
Anti Pipelines: Check
Will Raise Royalties: Check

Honestly, I sort of find it hilarious that a guy who moves here to work in Alberta is so gleeful about the NDP. You've lived in Canada for what, 1 year, and now you're an expert on the political system here? And of course I have no idea what their game plan will be, nobody does. Will she be able to face the corporate executives who fuel this province and say that she wants to ban the pipeline, shut down the oil sands, ban fracking, and raise royalties? Only time will tell... but it looks bleak in the early stages.

EDIT: Here is the best link thus far: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/misses+ye...story.html

Quote:"EDMONTON - One day after launching her detailed fiscal plan, NDP Leader Rachel Notley revealed that a multibillion-dollar “miscalculation” will delay her promised balanced budget by a full year."

Math is hard.....

Post: #3935

Tresdus: why mention Suncor and 1m/ 20k in the same sentence? You're being purposefully obtuse. Suncor makes 5 BILLION per year (when oil is up). That's 100 MILLION in extra taxes. Do you know how MUCH that is??? And it'll all be spent on medical services for fat lazy fucks who can barely walk to the doctor's office, teachers who teach your kids that the correct answers aren't important and to love fags, and environmental/ regulatory beurocracy that brings precisely nothing to Albertans and shuts down companies.

Very concerned about what this all means for the future of my career in Alberta...

Post: #3936

(05-06-2015 02:39 PM)TooFineAPoint Wrote:  Two considerations:

1. Though the past does not always equal the future, provincial governments in Alberta tend to stay in power over a decade at a time. It may not be a "quick 4 years then back to business as usual". NDP will likely start off more cautious than their supporters would prefer, but as they get comfortable with the reigns of power (like all other ruling parties) they will get emboldened. When the NDP gets emboldened, the worst of socialism is loosed.

2. They will institute (according to their platform) a progressive income tax over the flat tax AB currently has. They will frame it as "just the top 1% paying their fair share" to the proles. Once the progressive tax is in place, NO FUTURE PARTY WILL EVER GET RID OF IT. That is just not how modern democratic politics works. Then, regardless of who is in power, it will come to light that some of that "hated 1%" will have moved their investments out of the province, and others have utilized loopholes. Expanding budgets will demand more money. Then they will have to make the tax a little more progressive down the board. So even though it doesn't hurt a lot of us right now, it will be a very effective club to bludgeon us with in the future. And the beauty of it (from the NDP point of view), is that when the current government overspends (even more than the last ruling party did), such that the next ruling party will "have to" raise taxes to make up for it, the blame will not be properly laid either.


But how can one support a brutally wasteful, arrogant PC party given their actions post Klein's first term? And as much as I'd like to support the Wild Rose, they have proven themselves to be incompetent when they had the last election practically laid out for them. So hopefully the province's oil money can weather the incoming storm, and hopefully the NDP buck the historical trend and only remain in power for a short time. But that progressive tax is a game changer and just effectively removed one of the main economic advantages for moving to Alberta.

OMG the sky is gonna fall!!!!

Relax guys. The conservatives already got rid of the flat tax in March!

From March 26th:
Budget: Personal income taxes to rise sharply, province moves toward progressive system
http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/b...on-deficit

Under the NDP it'll be slightly higher, but the conservatives already got rid of the flat tax.

Post: #3937

(05-06-2015 05:55 PM)christpuncher Wrote:  Tresdus: why mention Suncor and 1m/ 20k in the same sentence? You're being purposefully obtuse. Suncor makes 5 BILLION per year (when oil is up). That's 100 MILLION in extra taxes. Do you know how MUCH that is??? And it'll all be spent on medical services for fat lazy fucks who can barely walk to the doctor's office, teachers who teach your kids that the correct answers aren't important and to love fags, and environmental/ regulatory beurocracy that brings precisely nothing to Albertans and shuts down companies.

Very concerned about what this all means for the future of my career in Alberta...

That's some next level logic you've got there.

Suncor, according to you, will make 5 billion when oil is up. Now they'd have to pay an extra measly 100 million dollars in taxes. So what? You think they're gonna leave all the rest of their fat profit on the table and walk?? What exactly is it that you're saying here?

And phrases like "teachers that love fags" and "lazy fat fucks" show what kind of a character you are. Typical redneck conspiracy nutter that has way too much confidence in his words just b/c of his higher than average pay check.

Post: #3938

(05-06-2015 07:27 PM)Nima Wrote:  And phrases like "teachers that love fags" and "lazy fat fucks" show what kind of a character you are. Typical redneck conspiracy nutter that has way too much confidence in his words just b/c of his higher than average pay check.

For an oil industry thread, that's pretty light stuff to get offended by. You speak up for the disenfranchised when the boys in the field say shit like that?

Post: #3939

Someone should start an Alberta election thread in the everything else section, good discussion going on here, I'll add to it later.

Post: #3940

If I were to get offended by shit like that I would have packed my bags and left 2 years ago. Read my post again. There was no offense taken. Made a factual statement and I've said that to people's faces as well. Just b/c you make a 100K salary with your grade 10 education it doesn't mean your drivel is made of gold. The confidence that a lot of oil guys have in themselves is quite admirable, but a lot of them need to tone it down by a few hundred notches. You guys are falling over each other trying to scream about the impending doom and how you'll be paying more taxes b/c the communists have taken over. When the conservatives got rid of the flat income tax a month ago none of you made a peep.

Anyway, gonna be shipped to Ft. Mac next week to start a fly in fly out job. Thankfully I don't have to live in that shit hole on my days off and listen to whack jobs and their bull shit drivel.

Quote:For an oil industry thread, that's pretty light stuff to get offended by. You speak up for the disenfranchised when the boys in the field say shit like that?

Post: #3941

(05-06-2015 08:34 PM)Nima Wrote:  If I were to get offended by shit like that I would have packed my bags and left 2 years ago. Read my post again. There was no offense taken. Made a factual statement and I've said that to people's faces as well. Just b/c you make a 100K salary with your grade 10 education it doesn't mean your drivel is made of gold. The confidence that a lot of oil guys have in themselves is quite admirable, but a lot of them need to tone it down by a few hundred notches. You guys are falling over each other trying to scream about the impending doom and how you'll be paying more taxes b/c the communists have taken over. When the conservatives got rid of the flat income tax a month ago none of you made a peep.

Anyway, gonna be shipped to Ft. Mac next week to start a fly in fly out job. Thankfully I don't have to live in that shit hole on my days off and listen to whack jobs and their bull shit drivel.

Quote:For an oil industry thread, that's pretty light stuff to get offended by. You speak up for the disenfranchised when the boys in the field say shit like that?

Nima as far as I know Komatite has a graduate degree in a non-fluff field of science and lots of experience in the patch both here and state side, I know that you have a professional background and are well educated, we all have different opinion on this, lets keep it civil and not resort to name calling or insults. Also, most of the anti-NDP sentiment is found in southern Alberta, where Harper has his base and the people lean more right, the farther north you go, especially in Edmonton (AKA Redmonton), the more left people lean, which includes Fort McMurray, a city full of union guys, East Coasters and immigrants, most of whom also lean left.

Post: #3942

(05-06-2015 08:34 PM)Nima Wrote:  If I were to get offended by shit like that I would have packed my bags and left 2 years ago. Read my post again. There was no offense taken. Made a factual statement and I've said that to people's faces as well. Just b/c you make a 100K salary with your grade 10 education it doesn't mean your drivel is made of gold. The confidence that a lot of oil guys have in themselves is quite admirable, but a lot of them need to tone it down by a few hundred notches. You guys are falling over each other trying to scream about the impending doom and how you'll be paying more taxes b/c the communists have taken over. When the conservatives got rid of the flat income tax a month ago none of you made a peep.

For an oil industry thread, that's pretty light stuff to get offended by. You speak up for the disenfranchised when the boys in the field say shit like that?

At a time when a lot of junior Oil Sand producers are trying to stay afloat this is bad news for potential future investments in these companies to make them prosperous. With 3 SAGD facilities closing in the past few months and a fourth one on it's way it is very scary. Each facility can employee over 100's of employees engineers, tradesmen, geologists etc. So I don't get where you are coming from with this grade 10 education stuff.

It's truly a bad time, most companies have hiring freezes on at the moment. A lot of future expansion projects have been shelved meaning a lot of layoffs in Calgary. Does that mean there are no jobs at the moment, no. Just means the amount of work out there is very scarce. I can understand why there is a lot of fear at the moment because there should be, there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment for the short and long term. The big companies will be okay but the smaller ones that are highly leveraged may not make it.

Post: #3943

Guys I started a thread about the NDP win over in the EE section, lets continue the debate over there: /thread-47263.html

Post: #3944

(05-06-2015 09:16 PM)S_tourist Wrote:  It's truly a bad time, most companies have hiring freezes on at the moment. A lot of future expansion projects have been shelved meaning a lot of layoffs in Calgary. Does that mean there are no jobs at the moment, no. Just means the amount of work out there is very scarce. I can understand why there is a lot of fear at the moment because there should be, there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment for the short and long term. The big companies will be okay but the smaller ones that are highly leveraged may not make it.

Small business will get a tax cut. I don't see the problem?

Edit: Thanks scotian, let's continue over there.

Post: #3945

Thanks for filtering oil from politics.

(05-06-2015 10:20 PM)scotian Wrote:  Guys I started a thread about the NDP win over in the EE section, lets continue the debate over there: /thread-47263.html

Post: #3946

(05-06-2015 07:17 PM)Nima Wrote:  

(05-06-2015 02:39 PM)TooFineAPoint Wrote:  Two considerations:

1. Though the past does not always equal the future, provincial governments in Alberta tend to stay in power over a decade at a time. It may not be a "quick 4 years then back to business as usual". NDP will likely start off more cautious than their supporters would prefer, but as they get comfortable with the reigns of power (like all other ruling parties) they will get emboldened. When the NDP gets emboldened, the worst of socialism is loosed.

2. They will institute (according to their platform) a progressive income tax over the flat tax AB currently has. They will frame it as "just the top 1% paying their fair share" to the proles. Once the progressive tax is in place, NO FUTURE PARTY WILL EVER GET RID OF IT. That is just not how modern democratic politics works. Then, regardless of who is in power, it will come to light that some of that "hated 1%" will have moved their investments out of the province, and others have utilized loopholes. Expanding budgets will demand more money. Then they will have to make the tax a little more progressive down the board. So even though it doesn't hurt a lot of us right now, it will be a very effective club to bludgeon us with in the future. And the beauty of it (from the NDP point of view), is that when the current government overspends (even more than the last ruling party did), such that the next ruling party will "have to" raise taxes to make up for it, the blame will not be properly laid either.


But how can one support a brutally wasteful, arrogant PC party given their actions post Klein's first term? And as much as I'd like to support the Wild Rose, they have proven themselves to be incompetent when they had the last election practically laid out for them. So hopefully the province's oil money can weather the incoming storm, and hopefully the NDP buck the historical trend and only remain in power for a short time. But that progressive tax is a game changer and just effectively removed one of the main economic advantages for moving to Alberta.

OMG the sky is gonna fall!!!!

Relax guys. The conservatives already got rid of the flat tax in March!

From March 26th:
Budget: Personal income taxes to rise sharply, province moves toward progressive system
http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/b...on-deficit

Under the NDP it'll be slightly higher, but the conservatives already got rid of the flat tax.

My detailed post about considerations indicates to you that I think the sky is falling?

Yes, of course the previous waste and overspending of the PC governments was going to usher in new taxes of some kind. That's why I deliberately included the part about the "brutally wasteful, arrogant PC party". The main issue of the election was the Prentice budget and how the other parties would have played it / modified it / overturned it. The voters elected a party that not only was willing to outright call it a progressive tax (as opposed to the PC weasel wording of "temporary tax"), but one that was the most extreme. The long term issue is how this will get ramped up over time, and how it will be very hard to remove.

Thankfully it is not without precedent (Klein flipped to a flat tax) but it will be very difficult to do again. If the point you are trying to make is that it is hard to imagine a worse ruling party than the Redford PCs, I agree. Will the NDP be much different? Doubtful, for the short term. But I am incorporated, and my friends run businesses in this province. One has to think of future ramifications. Why are you trying to frame this as "sky is falling" thinking?

Post: #3947

Thanks for the fun meetup guys! Hope to do another one sooner than later.

Post: #3948

Raising the corporate tax to 12% is not what will scare the oil companies the most. That is based on their profits, so they still need to make profits to pay taxes. The big problem is the uncertainty surrounding the royalties. Royalties are normally charged per barrel (I think) and if not at least on sales volume not profits. If the NDP said they would raise royalties a set amount then the oil companies could immediately factor that in and decide what to do. The fact that they will take months deciding what they will do and the resulting uncertainty is what will stop most oil companies from taking a risk in Alberta and they will concentrate on the known situations in Sask and BC at least in Canada in the near future.
As far as personal income tax, if it goes to progressive, working 6-9 month years like Scotian will look like a much better idea.
Another problem with the NDP is they are too entrenched with the unions to help small business, so the only ones to win will be provincial employees.
Over-spending PCs needed to go, but this is going to hurt.

Post: #3949

(05-07-2015 10:18 PM)yachty Wrote:  Raising the corporate tax to 12% is not what will scare the oil companies the most. That is based on their profits, so they still need to make profits to pay taxes. The big problem is the uncertainty surrounding the royalties. Royalties are normally charged per barrel (I think) and if not at least on sales volume not profits. If the NDP said they would raise royalties a set amount then the oil companies could immediately factor that in and decide what to do. The fact that they will take months deciding what they will do and the resulting uncertainty is what will stop most oil companies from taking a risk in Alberta and they will concentrate on the known situations in Sask and BC at least in Canada in the near future.
As far as personal income tax, if it goes to progressive, working 6-9 month years like Scotian will look like a much better idea.
Another problem with the NDP is they are too entrenched with the unions to help small business, so the only ones to win will be provincial employees.
Over-spending PCs needed to go, but this is going to hurt.

More like 4-6 months, but ya, I'll will keep doing what I do, if things pan out, 2015 shouldn't be any different. I had to work outside yesterday, it was +3 and snowing the entire time, fuck that shit, that's why I take the winters off, I can't handle these Alberta winters, I'll be gone by November. I have a rant to post on the EE NDP thread but I just got home from wings and have half a buzz on, c yas tomorrow boys!

Post: #3950

I was talking to a few guys from a safety company I have seen at several of the shutdown's I have been at. The name of the company is Target Safety.

A few of them were saying they are really busy right now. One guy was complaining that he hasn't seen his wife in 2 months.

It's easy work. If you are just starting out, you will probably be a confined space monitor. This means you sit outside the confined space and monitor the people inside. Take readings every 15 minutes or so. I imagine it might not be the most exciting work but it probably pays at least $20/hr to start. Not sure what tickets you would need on top of the usual First Aid, H2S, CSTS, Confined Space, Fall Protection. They were saying the more tickets you have, the more work you get.

http://www.targetsafety.ca/careers/