Post: #201

(02-10-2012 11:14 PM)gringochileno Wrote:  

(02-10-2012 05:44 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-09-2012 10:06 PM)gringochileno Wrote:  I think this dust-up over birth control is going to end up benefiting Obama by reinforcing the notion that we can afford to turn to other issues now that the unemployment situation is improving. I've already heard people on TV say stuff like "well maybe the economy is getting better because we're having this culture war fight now." Not to mention that it gives Santorum the ability to drag out the nomination fight by talking about stuff that plays to his strengths rather than Romney's.

That is wishful dreaming. People are thinking -- as they have for the past three years -- why is President Obama fiddling with these partisan fights, when we have record deficits and unemployment levels?

Just wait until it becomes common knowledge that the government is lying about unemployment levels -- and that unemployment levels are almost triple what the government claims. This is something that everyone knows in their gut and by everyday experience. But just wait until it goes mainstream.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_dat...ent-charts

You don't think it benefits Obama to have the Republicans trying to score points on this kind of niche social issue stuff (especially when they're arguing for the minority position)? I can easily see him pivoting off of this by casting the Republicans as not serious about the economy and adopting a narrative like "they don't want to talk about the fact that we've had xyz months of job growth and employment has declined and the auto industry is doing well and they don't have a plan to put Americans back to work etc etc, so instead they've turned to the same old distractions to try and divide the American people." This shit practically writes itself.

Do you live in the U.S.? In the U.S., the President, whether fairly or not, gets the credit or blame for the state of the economy. And the economy is a horror show. The Democrats control the presidency and one-half the Congress. There is no way to pivot and lay this at the feet of Republicans.

Quote:that we've had xyz months of job growth and employment has declined

This has not happened. There was a temporary bump from temporary Christmas jobs, nothing more. As I already noted, the government is lying about the unemployment rate, which stands above twenty percent.

Quote:This shit practically writes itself.

Only if you are writing fantasy.

Post: #202

(02-10-2012 11:26 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-10-2012 11:14 PM)gringochileno Wrote:  

(02-10-2012 05:44 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-09-2012 10:06 PM)gringochileno Wrote:  I think this dust-up over birth control is going to end up benefiting Obama by reinforcing the notion that we can afford to turn to other issues now that the unemployment situation is improving. I've already heard people on TV say stuff like "well maybe the economy is getting better because we're having this culture war fight now." Not to mention that it gives Santorum the ability to drag out the nomination fight by talking about stuff that plays to his strengths rather than Romney's.

That is wishful dreaming. People are thinking -- as they have for the past three years -- why is President Obama fiddling with these partisan fights, when we have record deficits and unemployment levels?

Just wait until it becomes common knowledge that the government is lying about unemployment levels -- and that unemployment levels are almost triple what the government claims. This is something that everyone knows in their gut and by everyday experience. But just wait until it goes mainstream.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_dat...ent-charts

You don't think it benefits Obama to have the Republicans trying to score points on this kind of niche social issue stuff (especially when they're arguing for the minority position)? I can easily see him pivoting off of this by casting the Republicans as not serious about the economy and adopting a narrative like "they don't want to talk about the fact that we've had xyz months of job growth and employment has declined and the auto industry is doing well and they don't have a plan to put Americans back to work etc etc, so instead they've turned to the same old distractions to try and divide the American people." This shit practically writes itself.

Do you live in the U.S.? In the U.S., the President, whether fairly or not, gets the credit or blame for the state of the economy. And the economy is a horror show. The Democrats control the presidency and one-half the Congress. There is no way to pivot and lay this at the feet of Republicans.

Yeah I agree that a bad economy is going to be a liability for Obama in general, but all things being equal I think it's in his interests if he can make it look like he's the one who's interested in solutions while the Republicans would rather squabble over stupid bullshit.

Quote:

Quote:that we've had xyz months of job growth and employment has declined

This has not happened. There was a temporary bump from temporary Christmas jobs, nothing more. As I already noted, the government is lying about the unemployment rate, which stands above twenty percent.

Look, people aren't going to suddenly stop quoting U3 as the headline unemployment rate just because some website somewhere says there's another number that more accurately measures the state of the labor market. Personally, I think the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers is the single best measure right now of how the recovery is going, but there's no way in hell that it's going to replace the regular, vanilla unemployment rate on the front page of the newspapers. Also, the last few job reports actually have been genuinely good.

(To be clear, although this really doesn't pertain to my point, if you're going to use an alternative measure of unemployment you have to take into account what the baseline level of that measure is. It's important to note that the statistic pegging the rate at 20% right now was around 12% before the recession started. There's an important apples-to-oranges issue there.)

Quote:

Quote:This shit practically writes itself.

Only if you are writing fantasy.

Here in America the term for that is "political narrative."

Post: #203

(02-10-2012 11:51 PM)gringochileno Wrote:  This shit practically writes itself.

Quote:Only if you are writing fantasy.

Quote:Here in America the term for that is "political narrative."

Good One.

Post: #204

deleted

Post: #205

(01-09-2012 08:14 PM)bengalltigerr Wrote:  I've been a Republican all my life. Now I ask my Republican brothers' opinion on Mitt Romney & Rick Santorum, who would you rather see as the president & why?

If I HAD to choose, Romney. But I've lost all hope in the Republican party.

Post: #206

Romney stands very little chance against Obama, according to recent polls.

Post: #207

(02-11-2012 06:29 PM)bengalltigerr Wrote:  Romney stands very little chance against Obama, according to recent polls.

Do the other Republican candidates fare any better?

Post: #208

(02-12-2012 10:51 PM)P Dog Wrote:  

(02-11-2012 06:29 PM)bengalltigerr Wrote:  Romney stands very little chance against Obama, according to recent polls.

Do the other Republican candidates fare any better?

Statistics this far from the election mean nothing. Just ask the first George Bush who had seventy percent popularity (as opposed to Obama's 49%) and still lost re-election. In addition, polls can include the public-at-large, registered voters, or likely voters. The first two categories are weighted towards Democrats (especially the public-at-large) and mean nothing.

If the election were held today, Obama would lose. No doubt about it. His only hope is if the economy improves markedly or the Republican candidate implodes. Neither scenario is likely. In fact, it seems that Obama is imploding. Obama stupidly just lost his advantage in the Catholic vote -- for no reason other than to pander to his base (which he cannot lose). It was one of the dumbest blunders that I have seen in politics in quite some time (at least on the presidential level).

Post: #209

(02-12-2012 11:03 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-12-2012 10:51 PM)P Dog Wrote:  

(02-11-2012 06:29 PM)bengalltigerr Wrote:  Romney stands very little chance against Obama, according to recent polls.

Do the other Republican candidates fare any better?

In fact, it seems that Obama is imploding. Obama stupidly just lost his advantage in the Catholic vote -- for no reason other than to pander to his base (which he cannot lose). It was one of the dumbest blunders that I have seen in politics in quite some time (at least on the presidential level).

He sold out the Catholic vote for the womens vote.

I don't know if that will pay off come election time, but think about this: 25% of the United States is Catholic, compared to half of Americans (roughly) being women. Twice as many women as they are Catholics.

Remember that the Presidential Election is winners take all for each state. The states that are more Catholic than average are primarily blue states in the North East and also California which are extremely safe for Obama,so we should be looking at the effect of all this on the swing states.

Ohio, Missouri, Virginia and the like are mostly Protestant. Florida (and to a lesser extent Nevada) is the main swing state which is more Catholic than average. Keep in mind that many (if not the vast majority) of the Catholics in Florida are Hispanics who already solidly vote Democratic (roughly 66%), which dampens the effect of all this on the Catholic vote.

Only time will tell if the Catholic reaction in the swing states ie. Florida will kill Obama's re-election chances.

Post: #210

Polls have shown the majority of Catholics actually supporting Obama on the birth control thing. I definitely think it hurts the Republicans to have the focus on that issue, both because they're advocating a minority position and for the reason I stated earlier that it makes it easy for Obama to portray them as not serious about fixing the economy.

Post: #211

(02-12-2012 10:51 PM)P Dog Wrote:  

(02-11-2012 06:29 PM)bengalltigerr Wrote:  Romney stands very little chance against Obama, according to recent polls.

Do the other Republican candidates fare any better?

Ron Paul would murder Obama in an election. It would be an absolute landslide for the Republicans, regardless of the war chest that Obama has.

Ignore the fact that he already would have most of the votes from the Republicans. He would have far more of the independent vote too. Then throw into the mix

1 - Wants to audit and revamp the Fed
2 - Wants to end the war on drugs
3 - Wants to end the wars abroad

How much of Obamas base would that appeal to? Ron Pauls conservatism is a better democrat than Obama.

But it wont happen. We are now seeing rampant election fraud as they try to minimise Paul. Throw into the mix the media blackouts and outright media attacks on him, and he does not stand a chance.

The establishment does not want to see an anti war, anti Israel, anti fed candidate put forward.

It will be Romney, its preordained. Romney will get smashed in the election after the public smear campaign is complete. Between that and Obamas ability to speak, its 4 more years of the Dems.

Also, given the current nonsense with the GOP rigging results, I would not be surprised to see Paul go with a third party, which would essentially kill any Republican chance of a victory.

Post: #212

(02-13-2012 12:40 AM)Hooligan Harry Wrote:  

(02-12-2012 10:51 PM)P Dog Wrote:  Do the other Republican candidates fare any better?

Ron Paul would murder Obama in an election. It would be an absolute landslide for the Republicans, regardless of the war chest that Obama has.

Is this just another example of libertarian delusion? or are you trollin'?

Post: #213

I'd love for Ron Paul to win the GOP bid.

Post: #214

@kerouac

Why would he lose against Obama? Lets look at the facts again

Republican base? Check
Independent base? Check

Which leaves Obamas base. Of which the vast majority of left leaning liberals in that base would support an end to the wars, an end to the war on drugs, states determining abortion.

Ron Paul was tied with Obama in polls clocking the same number as Romney.

What exactly do you disagree with here?

Post: #215

(02-13-2012 01:03 AM)Hooligan Harry Wrote:  1 - Wants to audit and revamp the Fed
2 - Wants to end the war on drugs
3 - Wants to end the wars abroad

I agree with your post above. Insightful.

However,

1. I don't think many Americans understand this.

2. You would be surprised at the amount of Americans who don't want to end the war on drugs. Hell, I bet even on this forum, more than half the people would be against it. Check out my California Police State thread, people are into banning throwing a football on the beach. American's love rules and laws.

3. Again, so many American's don't care. And many want to "get those arabs". Hell, many American's don't even know we are at war right now.

Post: #216

(02-12-2012 11:34 PM)P Dog Wrote:  

(02-12-2012 11:03 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-12-2012 10:51 PM)P Dog Wrote:  

(02-11-2012 06:29 PM)bengalltigerr Wrote:  Romney stands very little chance against Obama, according to recent polls.

Do the other Republican candidates fare any better?

In fact, it seems that Obama is imploding. Obama stupidly just lost his advantage in the Catholic vote -- for no reason other than to pander to his base (which he cannot lose). It was one of the dumbest blunders that I have seen in politics in quite some time (at least on the presidential level).

He sold out the Catholic vote for the womens vote.

I don't know if that will pay off come election time, but think about this: 25% of the United States is Catholic, compared to half of Americans (roughly) being women. Twice as many women as they are Catholics.

That is an extremely simplistic analysis. You need to examine what Obama had when he won and what he has now. He won with 55% to 45% of the Catholic vote. That statistic has now flipped. Had Obama only received 45% of the Catholic vote in 2008, he would have lost. But that is all he has today. All the Republic nominee must do is retain the status quo. This does not even take into account a similar type of flip amongst independent voters. That is why I am saying that Obama would lose if the election was held today. I am looking at actual statistics amongst likely voters. It was an incredible blunder on his part.

Post: #217

(02-13-2012 12:34 AM)gringochileno Wrote:  Polls have shown the majority of Catholics actually supporting Obama on the birth control thing. I definitely think it hurts the Republicans to have the focus on that issue, both because they're advocating a minority position and for the reason I stated earlier that it makes it easy for Obama to portray them as not serious about fixing the economy.

You do not understand politics or the constitutional ramifications. The birth control issue is moot because people can get birth control everywhere, often for free. It is a non-issue. This issue has nothing to do with birth control, it has to do with religious freedom and an unconstitutional regulation. Everyone is in favor of religious freedom. That is why people were up in arms so quickly, why Obama lost support even amongst liberal Catholics, why Joe Biden and Mayor Daley warned Obama not to do it in the first place, and why Obama backed off in less than a week.

This was an incredible blunder of epic proportions. It ranks up there with Clinton's escapades in the Oval Office and GB's "Read My Lips, No New Taxes" pledge. If the Catholic vote says where it is today, Obama loses. It is that simple. Obama listened to the radicals in his administration, rather than Biden and Daley -- showing an incredible level of political tone deafness.

Post: #218

(02-13-2012 01:39 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-13-2012 12:34 AM)gringochileno Wrote:  Polls have shown the majority of Catholics actually supporting Obama on the birth control thing. I definitely think it hurts the Republicans to have the focus on that issue, both because they're advocating a minority position and for the reason I stated earlier that it makes it easy for Obama to portray them as not serious about fixing the economy.

You do not understand politics or the constitutional ramifications. The birth control issue is moot because people can get birth control everywhere, often for free. It is a non-issue. This issue has nothing to do with birth control, it has to do with religious freedom and an unconstitutional regulation. Everyone is in favor of religious freedom. That is why people were up in arms so quickly, why Obama lost support even amongst liberal Catholics, why Joe Biden and Mayor Daley warned Obama not to do it in the first place, and why Obama backed off in less than a week.

This was an incredible blunder of epic proportions. It ranks up there with Clinton's escapades in the Oval Office and GB's "Read My Lips, No New Taxes" pledge. If the Catholic vote says where it is today, Obama loses. It is that simple. Obama listened to the radicals in his administration, rather than Biden and Daley -- showing an incredible level of political tone deafness.

If it was such a blunder why do the majority of Catholics (to say nothing of the general population) support Obama's position? (source)

Post: #219

(02-13-2012 01:03 AM)Hooligan Harry Wrote:  @kerouac

Why would he lose against Obama? Lets look at the facts again

Republican base? Check
Independent base? Check

Which leaves Obamas base. Of which the vast majority of left leaning liberals in that base would support an end to the wars, an end to the war on drugs, states determining abortion.

Ron Paul was tied with Obama in polls clocking the same number as Romney.

What exactly do you disagree with here?

Man, I wish I could believe he would win. I just doubt it.

Also, I think his Foreign Policy ideas are hopelessly naive.

Post: #220

(02-13-2012 01:53 AM)gringochileno Wrote:  

(02-13-2012 01:39 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-13-2012 12:34 AM)gringochileno Wrote:  Polls have shown the majority of Catholics actually supporting Obama on the birth control thing. I definitely think it hurts the Republicans to have the focus on that issue, both because they're advocating a minority position and for the reason I stated earlier that it makes it easy for Obama to portray them as not serious about fixing the economy.

You do not understand politics or the constitutional ramifications. The birth control issue is moot because people can get birth control everywhere, often for free. It is a non-issue. This issue has nothing to do with birth control, it has to do with religious freedom and an unconstitutional regulation. Everyone is in favor of religious freedom. That is why people were up in arms so quickly, why Obama lost support even amongst liberal Catholics, why Joe Biden and Mayor Daley warned Obama not to do it in the first place, and why Obama backed off in less than a week.

This was an incredible blunder of epic proportions. It ranks up there with Clinton's escapades in the Oval Office and GB's "Read My Lips, No New Taxes" pledge. If the Catholic vote says where it is today, Obama loses. It is that simple. Obama listened to the radicals in his administration, rather than Biden and Daley -- showing an incredible level of political tone deafness.

If it was such a blunder why do the majority of Catholics (never mind the general population) support Obama's position?

You're not listening. Yes, they support him regarding birth control. But that is a moot issue, because you can get birth control everywhere. They do not support him, by a large margin, regarding the new regulation forcing Catholic institutions to supply birth control through insurance. His support among Catholics has flipped. You are confusing two completely different issues. I'll say it one last time: people believe in birth control, but they do not want it forced on the Catholic Church.

Post: #221

(02-13-2012 02:01 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-13-2012 01:53 AM)gringochileno Wrote:  

(02-13-2012 01:39 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-13-2012 12:34 AM)gringochileno Wrote:  Polls have shown the majority of Catholics actually supporting Obama on the birth control thing. I definitely think it hurts the Republicans to have the focus on that issue, both because they're advocating a minority position and for the reason I stated earlier that it makes it easy for Obama to portray them as not serious about fixing the economy.

You do not understand politics or the constitutional ramifications. The birth control issue is moot because people can get birth control everywhere, often for free. It is a non-issue. This issue has nothing to do with birth control, it has to do with religious freedom and an unconstitutional regulation. Everyone is in favor of religious freedom. That is why people were up in arms so quickly, why Obama lost support even amongst liberal Catholics, why Joe Biden and Mayor Daley warned Obama not to do it in the first place, and why Obama backed off in less than a week.

This was an incredible blunder of epic proportions. It ranks up there with Clinton's escapades in the Oval Office and GB's "Read My Lips, No New Taxes" pledge. If the Catholic vote says where it is today, Obama loses. It is that simple. Obama listened to the radicals in his administration, rather than Biden and Daley -- showing an incredible level of political tone deafness.

If it was such a blunder why do the majority of Catholics (never mind the general population) support Obama's position?

They do not support him, by a large margin, regarding the new regulation forcing Catholic institution to supply birth control through insurance.

That is simply not true. See above for the poll in question, I've edited a link into my previous post.

Post: #222

(01-09-2012 08:23 PM)bengalltigerr Wrote:  Romney & Santorum are both quite conservative, that's what I like about them. I cannot say the same about Ron Paul.

Former liberal Massachusetts governor, Pro abortion, pro big government, big tax and spend, admited progressive, pro bailout and financed by banks and a banker and a lawyer himself, inventor of Obama care, who banned assualt weapons in his state when he was govenor Romney is conservative and Ron Paul is not


Every real conservative from Rush Limabugh to Palin to you name it admits the guy isn't conservative. Santorum is a conservative but he has voted on some things that are not conservative in the past in what he said was in the spirit of compromise which is at least more reasonable than Romney's position that he was conservative when he just was not.

I'd have to choose Ron Paul followed by Santorum because no one knows what Romney stands for because he keeps changing his position. All his life he has ran as a liberal and seemed to change it just for election.

The fact of the matter Romney cannot beat Obama. Santorum at least in theory can beat Obama because he can beat him on the issues. Romney cannot bring in any social issue because he flip flopped. romney can't use religion because he is mormon and not even a christian. Romney can't use economic policy because he is pro bailout, he is a banker and a lawyer too, he invented obamacare. To independents who are the real swing voters who win elections, Romney offers no difference on the important issue in the best case scenario or Romney is worse for a real conservative or evangelical because he is not even conservative on the right tea party issues.

Worst of all think of this. GWB beat McCain in the 1990s to win the republican nomination. McCain beat Romney in 2008 to win the nomination. GWB got 62 million votes when he ran against kerry in 2004. Despite the demographic growth in Republican states, McCain got 59 million votes. I strongly suspect Romney who is less likeable than a war hero christian moderate conservative non flip flopper actual republican will get less votes than McCain.
Romney is not likeable or more likeable than Obama, Romney is not conservative enough on the issues to bring out real conservatives, Romney. If Romney is chosen states like Georgia 47%Obama and Texas 44% Obama last election could go blue when the evangelicals stay home because Romney is not even christian in the eyes of many Christians.

Santorum, Paul can at least compete on the issues and even Gingrich could argue based on his pass record.

Romney unlike Santorum, has never really competed in the midwest, he lost every mid western and southern state except Michigan where his dad was a popular govern. He can't even beat Santorum in Missouri, Colorado and Minnesota and the guy has no money. He can barely beat Ron Paul a "fringe" candidate in Maine in a republican race. How is he going to beat Obama who is probably equally or more well financed than him (Obama spent $1 billion last election cycle and its like 2.5 billion when you count pacs and super pacs). Obama got 69 million votes last cycle, the most of any candidate ever. How is a less likeable guy like Romney (less likeable the Bush and McCain) suppose to beat Obama? And to me thats the nail in the coffin, if you're not likeable, you cannot win. Bush, Obama, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Nixon, Kennedy, Eisenhower, all likeable. the only time a candidate wins is when he is likeable. Not likeable = lose. Romney = less likeable than Obama.

Post: #223

(02-13-2012 01:13 AM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  

(02-13-2012 01:03 AM)Hooligan Harry Wrote:  1 - Wants to audit and revamp the Fed
2 - Wants to end the war on drugs
3 - Wants to end the wars abroad

I agree with your post above. Insightful.

However,

1. I don't think many Americans understand this.

2. You would be surprised at the amount of Americans who don't want to end the war on drugs. Hell, I bet even on this forum, more than half the people would be against it. Check out my California Police State thread, people are into banning throwing a football on the beach. American's love rules and laws.

3. Again, so many American's don't care. And many want to "get those arabs". Hell, many American's don't even know we are at war right now.

I dont understand the war on drugs at all, even here in Australia where its easier for us to control our borders. Prohibition does not work and throwing money into policing it and enforcing it does no good at all, it just makes it worse. Its a bottomless pit and there are better ways to deal with it.

Im just surprised that someone would think that Paul would not beat Obama, but Romney would. Its like they make the decision based on the dudes haircut or something. Its all mainstream media bullshit because the guys who own the mainstream media are the same ones running the banks and wall street. They dont care if its Obama or Romney, they are the same people. Paul is a wildcard to them and not part of the plan.

I just cant get over how under reported the election fraud has been. Its been across multiple states now with GOP representatives in the press saying they will ensure Paul cant win too. Super Tuesday was pretty nasty, but the crap that went down in Nevada and now Maine?

What the fuck is happening guys? If shit was going down like that here there would be strikes going up.

Post: #224

(02-13-2012 02:04 AM)gringochileno Wrote:  

(02-13-2012 02:01 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-13-2012 01:53 AM)gringochileno Wrote:  

(02-13-2012 01:39 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-13-2012 12:34 AM)gringochileno Wrote:  Polls have shown the majority of Catholics actually supporting Obama on the birth control thing. I definitely think it hurts the Republicans to have the focus on that issue, both because they're advocating a minority position and for the reason I stated earlier that it makes it easy for Obama to portray them as not serious about fixing the economy.

You do not understand politics or the constitutional ramifications. The birth control issue is moot because people can get birth control everywhere, often for free. It is a non-issue. This issue has nothing to do with birth control, it has to do with religious freedom and an unconstitutional regulation. Everyone is in favor of religious freedom. That is why people were up in arms so quickly, why Obama lost support even amongst liberal Catholics, why Joe Biden and Mayor Daley warned Obama not to do it in the first place, and why Obama backed off in less than a week.

This was an incredible blunder of epic proportions. It ranks up there with Clinton's escapades in the Oval Office and GB's "Read My Lips, No New Taxes" pledge. If the Catholic vote says where it is today, Obama loses. It is that simple. Obama listened to the radicals in his administration, rather than Biden and Daley -- showing an incredible level of political tone deafness.

If it was such a blunder why do the majority of Catholics (never mind the general population) support Obama's position?

They do not support him, by a large margin, regarding the new regulation forcing Catholic institution to supply birth control through insurance.

That is simply not true. See above for the poll in question, I've edited a link into my previous post.

I know what the polls say. I've been following them. If your poll says otherwise, it must be from Mad Magazine. I'm not going to bother looking at it. This is an unmitigated disaster for Obama. That is why he backed off in less than a week. If polls were in his favor, he would not have capitulated at all, much less in less than a week. His actions speak for themselves.

Post: #225

(02-13-2012 02:07 AM)Hooligan Harry Wrote:  Super Tuesday was pretty nasty, but the crap that went down in Nevada and now Maine?

Super Tuesday is on March 6th. It hasn't happened yet.