Post: #26

Down 40%, still hodling strong, selling is losing, I'm going down with my ship if it comes that far, I highly doubt it though. We should recover in 1-2 months tbh tbh

Post: #27

DVY says

Quote:VC $ has def flooded the space. Some private investors (family office) basically same as hedge funds are in the space.

But no serious institutional $ has come in yet and no pensions funds. Until we see the FOMO of insitutional (bigger $) we are nowhere close to the top.

If Bitcoin follows the evolution of other booms, he (or she) is correct.

But other BIG players moving the global market in Bitcoin must be considered.

Take China. Chinese money seeking safety is thought to have driven ongoing urban real estate bubble markets not just in the US, but in Australia and Europe. Think FLIGHT CAPITAL, as China faces a huge re-centralization of raw political power within the Communist Party - the biggest under Xi - since Mao Tse Dung.

Flight capital seeks not necessarily huge returns, but simple safety - eg, the return on original investment.

But where can the smaller players in China go? Those who can't travel to invest? And find similar safety abroad (which is INTERNATIONAL portfolio diversification, after all)? Bitcoin.

Other players like South Korea are better known.

I think Bitcoin will collapse if and when Chinese flight capital reverses. That's the indicator I follow when it comes to Bitcoin prospects.

Post: #28

^Interesting theory, but how do you know Chinese capital flight is/will be significant? Do you have some data regarding how much Chinese money has fled to Bitcoin so far? Or some rough prediction of how much is likely come? $100bn? $1tn?

The numbers matter, and so does the reasoning behind them.

That's the problem with these theories. You can cherry pick the dynamics that support bullishness, but without some quantitative basis and attached likelihood, they're just a stab in the dark.

Post: #29

(01-17-2018 10:33 AM)Seth_Rose Wrote:  This thread did not age well...

I'm guessing this thread will age better than your post.

Time will tell.