Post: #151

Not a bad pick, but the Bills are a good team. They're really good at home, though they could have a bit of a let down on the road. I don't feel strongly enough about either team at this point to make a call.

Post: #152

I didn't think Semen could get any worse.

Buccs +7 Evens only play for next week

Post: #153

Backing Eagles -7.5 at Evens for a trade. Hope to get +10 the other side by Sunday.

Post: #154

Taking Central Michigan (college football) tonight -3.5 (-105). I like betting non power 5 conference football. Softer lines in my opinion.

Post: #155

be really careful following other ppl's play. i know a lot of professional gamblers and none of them reveal their information unless its a worthwhile risk (your getting them accounts/action) to get them something in return.

Generally an account that is tagged sharp will move the lines to a max bet. This so called "line move" is just the big boy sites (cris/pin) respecting a heavy-hitters action.

A line move will generally move off a max bet or a few max bets. For college football spreads that is 10k-20k per bet. NFL is 50k per bet.

Thereotically if you have a big enough bankroll and are tagged as a winning player you will can move any line if you have the $ to do so.

To be fair there are probably less than 100 people worldwide who make their $/lifestyle from professional NFL full game/1H sportsbetting. Its really a fools errand to think you can beat the top computer quants who model this sports, information scouts, guys who have media access to all the data. This is a rigged game in terms of betting in that most people hit right around the dead zone 48-52% prediction and are dead $ after juice.

A good winrate of a world-class guy in NFL across a season is 54% (maybe 10 guys in the world have this betting at serious limits) and this is tremendous swings. For reference a guy betting 50k a game of NFL will regularly have 20-30 unit swings. so 1-1.5mm swings and a good winrate for a season would be 20 units. Your talking about razor razor thin margins/edge. They might not make $ the entire season if things go poorly or they get unlucky. Also their is tremendous blow-out risk because lack of volume. Very few games compared to a sport like nba or ncaab or even ncaaf.

Post: #156

Mostly true but Broncos went off SB favs against Seahawks and Broncos got 6.5 points vs Panthers a few days before If you bet small numbers and clean up lines across a number of books, 57% is easily possible imo.

Post: #157

DeShaun Watson just tore his ACL. Terrible but this is how us leeches make money. Colts +13 Colts +11, take anything you can.

Post: #158

(11-02-2017 04:03 PM)ProGambler Wrote:  DeShaun Watson just tore his ACL. Terrible but this is how us leeches make money. Colts +13 Colts +11, take anything you can.

Line has already been taken off on bet 365 and bodog. Thanks for the tip though!

Post: #159

I just took the Broncos at +7.5 -110 for this week hosting the Pats. Thoughts?

Post: #160

I didn't watch the Eagles game but apparently Osweiler was fucking awful so I'm going to leave it.

Post: #161

Bills +3 10/11 this week

Post: #162

^ I like that one a lot. Buffalo as a home dog versus Brees in 40 degree weather after playing 3/4 in a dome sounds really juicy.

Also like Vikings -1 in Washington (was +1 earlier, line has been moving). Despite the win last week in Seattle, Redskins still don't have an O-line and Minnesota is one of the better pass rushing teams out there.

Post: #163

Dolpnins team total Over 14.5 -105.

Post: #164

TNF Steelers/Titans U44 19/20

Post: #165

It's reverting to a lot of scoring now, even though the coldness is coming.

Post: #166

Take packers ML, the Cleve/Jax under, and New England -6.5

and thank me later

Post: #167

Lions, Saints, and Chiefs MLs sunday.

Post: #168

I like Broncos -2.5 over Bengals as well as the ML. Tough as fuck to bet on Brock Osweiler, but its Bengals 3rd straight road game (rarely ends well), playing at high altitude, and Denver's defense, despite being disappointing this year so far, is still not terrible and is due for a bounce-back. Denver is not a good team but at some point they get a W.

Post: #169

What do you guys think on the Falcons vs Seahawks game?

Post: #170

Rams/Vikings U45.5 19/20
Raiders +7.5 bet earlier, odds gone now.
Bought Gostowski FG yards at 74 too

Post: #171

Raiders blown out but Gost makes up 182 yards

Post: #172

2 out of 3 aint bad, especially when the NE 2H and under was so easy

Post: #173

Progambler what do you think of taking the Cowboys at -1?

Cowboys were blown out while the Chargers won big. Its a short week so LA will have to travel to Dallas while Dallas will host after playing at home this past Sunday.

Post: #174

It's a pick em now but I've not seen the injuries or games. Sounds good on paper.

Post: #175

I've lost the last four bets by less than three points/game. I'm having one of the shittiest seasons on record. I basically do two team parlays, two team teasers, and straight bets.