Post: #376

Bought the trade desk at 123 and then again at 143. Any idea why is gone down in the last few days?

Post: #377

Copart (CPRT) is dirt cheap even with the 2% it's up so far today. They missed earnings 2 weeks ago due to costs associated with hurricane. I can't believe this one time charge has drug this stock down this far and this long. Solid company and proven growth. Down 20%+ over they last 3 weeks. Up 300% the last 5 years and 85% the last year before the drop. I loaded up most of the way down $57-$52 and would still be buying more ($52-$53) if I wasn't trying to keep a but of cash on the sidelines right now. IMO I don't think you can find a better entry point on proven company for a long hold.

Post: #378

(09-24-2018 05:44 PM)BB1 Wrote:  

(09-24-2018 12:40 PM)Arado Wrote:  Returns look good but sounds like a scam since many people say you can't beat the market year after year long term.

That is total bullshit. I know many individual investors that have beaten the market over 20+ years, often by substantial amounts.

(09-24-2018 02:02 PM)Sgt Donger Wrote:  Also likely is that is if people pick a winning stock they will sell once they make a good return of say 30%.

Successful investors hold great companies for the long term. Typically just a few companies will power 90% of your long term gains. Many investors are up over 5,000% in companies like Netflix and Amazon. Investing is mostly about patience.

(09-25-2018 11:26 PM)BB1 Wrote:  

(09-25-2018 03:21 PM)Arado Wrote:  BB1, what do you think about the Motley Fool stock picking subscription specifically?

I have never subscribed, however I like their philosophy of holding companies for the long term and not taking profits too early, which is what most unsuccessful investors do.

For example I recommended The Trade Desk (TTD) in this thread on 15 Dec 2017 when is was trading at $49. Today TTD is worth $154 - a 314% increase.

I have had guys PM me, saying they sold all their TTD shares at between 20-50% profit. Look how much they have missed out on for not having the patience to hold a great company. In fact, I add to my winning companies, not reduce.

Here is an independent analysis of Motley Fool performance - they have beaten the market with this approach :

"Consider this: The three top spots in the Hulbert Financial Digest’s five-year rankings of more than 200 investment-advisory services all buy and hold quality companies. Remarkably, all three are subscription newsletters published by the same advisory firm, the Motley Fool in Alexandria, Va., which was founded by brothers Tom and David Gardner in 1993.

The newsletters’ names are Inside Value, Rule Breakers and Stock Advisor, and their model portfolios have produced average annual returns over the period of 18%, 16% and 15%, respectively, each more than doubling the 7.2% return of the overall stock market over the same period, as measured by the Wilshire 5000 index, with dividends reinvested."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget...2013-08-02

BB1 or anyone else willing to answer...

I'm extremely new stocks and learning as I go. One of the things I struggle with theoretically and in practice is 'exit strategy'. While I do subscribe to the long term school of thinking, I can't help but rationalize there is a time to take profits or get out of an over-hyped stock. Every stock can't be a "forever stock".

While I realize during a bull market you can basically throw a dart and turn good profits, I'd like to think I have a pretty good knack of seeking out and picking good growth stock at a value as well as judging market sentiment. This has worked very well for me and really only have two regrettable transactions (one of which was selling TTD @ $68 for a 15% gain).

So my questions are:
How do you decide when to sell?....

When you sell are you selling all at once or a percentage at different time? If a percentage what do you base this determination on?

How do you decide when to add to you position (more so when the stock has had substantially growth and continues to grow with no clear entry point)?..... Are you dollar cost averaging everything you purchase for the long term?

With the long term outlook being a proven winner Do you ever buy with short term goals in mind? (an example would be company you don't necessarily believe in long term but some news has tanked the stock that you feel there is no way they won't recover from in the short term ( a week, a couple months, possibly even a year); an opportunity to make a quick buck or easy money in your opinion).

I realize it takes balls and it is part of the game riding out the lows with the highs over the long run, but why ride on out a massive drop if you don't have to or What signals are you looking for that a company has shifted from a winner to a loser?

I realize some of this will come will experience. I learn more every day and as I understand more about the financials some of the questions I have get answered, but usually another pops up in its place. Thanks in advance for any help and good luck reading my nearly in-cohesive babbling.

Post: #379

(10-05-2018 04:09 PM)white22 Wrote:  How do you decide when to sell?

As I don't have the time to look into stocks, my game is the same as yours, I want to buy and hold. I want to buy stocks of companies that are going to grow, in growing markets. I'm most interested in buying into such things as early as possible and holding while they bubble out of all reasonable proportion.

I don't have the time to look at financials, projections, industry news, commentary etc. relating to my holdings.

So my exit strategy is to hold long term, up until the market seriously overheats and then sell everything. As I don't have time to reach charts and news to try and tell if one is going to have a bad spell. You can easily sink loads of time into constantly checking your stocks and get nothing from it. I check mine about once a week.

Right now I am waiting as it looks like a lot of retail investment is going to come in and keep the bubble going up. I was 80% up, now dipped to about 65%. I'm looking for it to get back to 80% and then make an assessment of how much more I think it could go up. Maybe it will go up a lot more, but I calling it quits. The market is obviously overheating severely. I'm happy with the profits and will take them, then reinvest after the next crash.

Certain stocks in particular are bubbling irrationally, their values have been spiking many times more than growth in revenues, profit, book values. They're going to have to correct sometime soon. My biggest holding is Canopy Growth Corporation. The market cap was recently about $16 billion CAD and this year they're only looking at $100M in revenue. Amazon sotck has gone up 133% in 2 years, the revenues are only up about 33%.

Post: #380

(10-02-2018 05:50 AM)BB1 Wrote:  In my own portfolio, I brought a lot more Nutanix (NTNX) last Fri around $43

I actually shorted NTNX at $42 last week and took partial profits today at $39. I don't like how price reversed midday today (Monday) so I'll scratch the rest of my position Tuesday if price goes back to my entry, but I think NTNX still has some steam to go further down. To be honest this stock looks terrible right now.

Post: #381

(10-03-2018 11:23 AM)white22 Wrote:  Copart (CPRT) is dirt cheap even with the 2% it's up so far today. They missed earnings 2 weeks ago due to costs associated with hurricane. I can't believe this one time charge has drug this stock down this far and this long. Solid company and proven growth. Down 20%+ over they last 3 weeks. Up 300% the last 5 years and 85% the last year before the drop. I loaded up most of the way down $57-$52 and would still be buying more ($52-$53) if I wasn't trying to keep a but of cash on the sidelines right now. IMO I don't think you can find a better entry point on proven company for a long hold.

If it breaks $50.55 I'm shorting this.

Post: #382

I think the downward move in treasuries (TLT) is overdone and going higher from here over the next week or two, thoughts?

Post: #383

White22,

PM sent.

(10-05-2018 04:09 PM)white22 Wrote:  How do you decide when to sell?....

Post: #384

A short term trader will invest differently from a long-term value investor. A long term investor does not worry about corrections. Therefore, it is natural to see people taking different actions on the same stock. The short term trader might have taken the correct action in the short term, and a long term investor might have taken the correct action in the long term.

Post: #385

Is anyone thinking of getting into Chinese stocks at these levels? Particularly the tech companies? ex. BABA or JD

Will US tech stock follow this trend? Many of the top Chinese tech stocks are down 40-50%. Any thoughts on this?

Post: #386

(09-20-2018 10:32 AM)Denzel Wrote:  With the new highs of SPY --and DJI--, it seems like I was on the wrong side of the bet for buying SPY puts but their expiration date is far away, and the amount is small.

I closed my puts today, and very happy with the results. I will stop writing about my trades. I will occasionally share the stocks that I find interesting so people can do their own research.

Post: #387

What are some good dips to buy during this market downturn?

Post: #388

(10-11-2018 04:22 PM)Arado Wrote:  What are some good dips to buy during this market downturn?

I'm still saying Treasuries!

Post: #389

I'm getting more of PSTG at the price I originally bought it for.

Post: #390

Given that both Asian markets and S&P futures are bouncing, I can calculate how low S&P can go down. The number is around 2000 !!! This is probabilistic, of course. If S&P bounces tomorrow to 2790-2865 range but then breaks 2710 later, this scenario will have a much higher probability.

If your research also indicates that S&P (and DJI) will get lower, you can buy some SPY (or DJI) puts to protect your investments or to make money. Some (out of money) puts are cheap, and I can buy them as an insurance if I decide to hold some stocks. If I buy a put for, say, $200, I might lose all of my $200 if the scenario is not correct but might make $1000 (possibly more) if i wait long enough and S&P drops to the levels I mention. However, the stocks I hold will also lose value no matter how good they are, so puts will work as an insurance, and $200 is the insurance premium I pay. I have to make sure that the expiration date is January 2019 or later. Do your own research, and never be greedy.

Deepdiver indicated "around 2000 for S&P" in his posts and/or thread before me. I now calculate this number independently. Another forum member, gework I think, also indicated that markets do not look good with solid reasons but without mentioning a number. In short, I see reasonable chance that they are correct. If I misrepresent their views mistakenly , I am sure, they can correct me.

Post: #391

(10-11-2018 04:22 PM)Arado Wrote:  What are some good dips to buy during this market downturn?

Yesterday my answer to this would have been Square (SQ) with out any hesitation or homework at $65-$69.

The CFO stepping down at an inopportune time had a huge knee jerk reaction IMO. Some will argue that she (can't remember her name right now) is a vital component to Square's business. I don't necessarily see this as the case and believe they will be fine without her or find a way to continue without her. Maybe they replace her with someone better.

Since then it's up 6-12% and honestly is still probably a great buy.

Post: #392

This has been quiet surprisingly, considering the markets are taking a bit of a pummeling...

Post: #393

Let the bulls be happy for three weeks or so. After all, today was a good day.

DAX has an interesting chart, if anyone wants to take a look.

Post: #394

(10-11-2018 04:22 PM)Arado Wrote:  What are some good dips to buy during this market downturn?

I just brought Nvida (NVDA) for $193.50 in the after-hours market. They are the clear leader in the AI Revolution.

Post: #395

(10-24-2018 06:20 PM)BB1 Wrote:  

(10-11-2018 04:22 PM)Arado Wrote:  What are some good dips to buy during this market downturn?

I just bought Nvida (NVDA) for $193.50 in the after-hours market. They are the clear leader in the AI Revolution.

Gonna do the same....been in on NVDA for awhile....solid buying opportunity......

I see the China stocks as a risk but with a big reward in the future....I am long....love Alibaba (Baba) at this price.....gonna keep accumulating through the down cycle....

Another China company with solid performance at a steal is WB (WEIBO).....down over 50%.....

Post: #396

The market is weaker than I thought so it did not give the bulls even a few weeks to be happy.

For those stocks that are already below their long-term trend lines, I would not catch a falling knife. For those who are close but above the trend line, the bounce will be generally strong but the stop-loss levels should be respected.

(10-23-2018 07:40 PM)Denzel Wrote:  Let the bulls be happy for three weeks or so. After all, today was a good day.

DAX has an interesting chart, if anyone wants to take a look.

Post: #397

The NASDAQ has officially entered correction territory following the selloff yesterday. For those who have a significant amount of money in index funds or REITs, are you pulling out now in anticipation of further losses (due to trade tensions, Fed funds rate hike, Quantitative tightening, earnings growth slowdown etc) or buying the dip?

Post: #398

I’m buying more in the dip than I do in general but I have an auto deposit into Robinhood every week which I always invest (dollar cost averaging essentially).

I also auto deposit into Wealthrfront which mostly buys me in to a bunch of ETFs.

Post: #399

Down until November ... red wave, then big run.

Post: #400

I am have a feeling that we are going to have a run next week but I am still staying bullish on treasuries. The fact that they were selling off a few weeks ago along with stocks was very rare historically and this week they have been back to inverse as normal.

Though in general its a long term hold for me. Your talking about an asset class that has positive returns (albeit less) than the stock market with a negative correlation. I definitely want that in my portfolio.