Predicitons for Democrat candidate in 2020?

Kamala Harris has declared her candidacy. With Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Warren, that makes 4/7 women in the Democratic primary.

It's going to be an interesting election.

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Imagine that you are one of the elite, and since the coup over the executive branch with Kennedy, things have been humming along predictably for 50 years. You are close to having America wrapped up and permanently transformed demographically into a one party state, when you have a charismatic leader rise from left field and ride a wave of populist blow-back against your agenda into office. He is difficult to control and mercurial. Your plans may be set back by decades or potentially reversed if he follows through on promises. He leaves the TPP and Paris Climate Accord. He threatens to leave NAFTA. He openly criticizes the Fed. He is threatening to build a wall and deport - though thankfully he is not following through there. The whole establishment structure that you have engineered, and the media, go against him, but he still has popular support from the people.

This period of uncertainty is maddening for you. So who do you want to replace him? Another potential maverick? No, that's the last thing that you want. No, you want a known quantity. Hillary won't due, because she is too old and widely disliked after stealing the primary from Bernie and losing the last time. She might not generate enough enthusiasm. Kamala Harris may be okay, she'd probably play ball. Tulsi Gabbard? She's too much of a maverick. Elizabeth Warren has no shot. Michelle Obama, on the other hand, is a known quantity. She is reassuring to the elite. If you get another 8 years of Obama, your plans for transforming the country would be complete and best of all there would be no surprises.

I would run Michelle Obama, with that cuck Beto as it’s boot-licking VP. The black vote will be on lock down, you get the feminist progressive vote for the first “female” president and you won’t scare more conservative libs with the name Obama, because we’ve already been through an Obama administration and didn’t die. It’s a known quantity. Liberals would also love to correct the “mistake” that was Trump and put Obama back in the White House and make the proper choice of electing a woman this time. They would see it as correcting history. Progressives would enjoy voting for a black woman deliberately placed above a white man, it signals awareness of the correct ordering of the progressive stack. Beta male white liberals would identify with O'Rourke, and his manner of deliving leftist talking points balances Michelle out when she gets too ghetto or radical. His fake Latino "Beto" shtick along with his open borders stance should win over some Hispanics. Texas will also be in play for 2020, and you are guaranteed to inherit Beto’s ground game there and the possibility to flip that state in either 2020 or 2024. You’d also have a clear presidential successor candidate to keep Texas blue in 2028 and 2032 just in case young Hispanics fail to turnout in high enough numbers otherwise.

Obama O’Rourke 2020

The names themselves are even an alliteration! Try getting that out of your head.

Ultimately, it's a proven formula - a radical black president to appeal to minorities, the young, and the far left, and a smooth talking white beta male vice president to relate to white liberals. In this case there would be another historical first - the first female president and that would appeal to women as well. It worked twice before for Obama. Why mess with a winning formula? There is no way Trump can be a black candidate who locks down 90%+ of the black vote. You immediately start off at a 12% disadvantage in the general electorate, so you would need to win by 51-37 of the remaining votes. You are odds are even worse in key states where blacks make up a larger percentage of the vote - like Florida (a state that Obama won both times). Blacks voted 96% for Obama in 2008, and 94% for Obama in 2012. They strongly identify with the name Obama, it was their first black president. In no universe does Trump poll that well.

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Michelle Obama has no interest in politics, she was well known to not like the 'game' that it is all about. She is gaffe prone and is light on policies she does not have a vested interest in. She be used to raise doner dollars, that will be her sole job next election - raise money.

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(01-22-2019 10:00 PM)kosko Wrote:  Michelle Obama has no interest in politics, she was well known to not like the 'game' that it is all about. She is gaffe prone and is light on policies she does not have a vested interest in. She be used to raise doner dollars, that will be her sole job next election - raise money.

Do you really think she'd turn down the ring of power?

If so, you could basically substitute Michelle Obama in the argument above with any far left black female candidate, although the names wouldn't alliterate. If I were pulling the strings I'd want a known quantity to carry out my orders after Trump. The Obama name is also guaranteed to lock down the black vote. Maybe Kamala Harris would - I don't know. I have a feeling that blacks will show solidarity and vote 90%+ for any black candidate running against a candidate of a different race. There is no doubt that I would run a black candidate against Trump, and it would be a shame to not take advantage of the billions of dollars already spent advocating for the first female president of the United States. That is the kind of thing that generates energy for the progs on the left - the chance to make history for one of their victim classes.

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I think Mich Obama already has turned it down. She would have run for senate somewhere if she wanted to hold public office. She doesn’t like public speaking

She has a much better personality than Hilary and would be a much more likable candidate but if she doesn’t want it then yeah.

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DNC Party:

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I'm very bullish on Kamala Harris

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(01-23-2019 12:49 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  I'm very bullish on Kamala Harris

Mace, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you said you would vote for Oprah a long time ago, right?

Would you vote for Kamala Harris. I'm not an American, so would love to hear what the more liberal oriented men on this forum think (after all, you guys are the ones who will be voting in the primaries).

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(01-23-2019 01:19 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 12:49 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  I'm very bullish on Kamala Harris

Mace, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you said you would vote for Oprah a long time ago, right?

Would you vote for Kamala Harris. I'm not an American, so would love to hear what the more liberal oriented men on this forum think (after all, you guys are the ones who will be voting in the primaries).

I don't post here often but I am also much more liberal than the vast majority on here but Kamala is a hard no for me.

She has some strengths in the field due to identity but will get quickly cut down if sufficiently attacked enough.

She's the Rubio of the field.

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(01-23-2019 01:19 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 12:49 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  I'm very bullish on Kamala Harris

Mace, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you said you would vote for Oprah a long time ago, right?

Would you vote for Kamala Harris. I'm not an American, so would love to hear what the more liberal oriented men on this forum think (after all, you guys are the ones who will be voting in the primaries).

I'm not going to go back through my past posts.

I assume I mentioned Oprah in a post and my comment is being taken out of context, which is par for the course here.

Regardless, PM me if you'd like a more detailed response.

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I think a lot of it will depend on who Obama endorses. If Biden runs he will get the endorsement and likely the nomination. If he doesn’t run then Kamala will likely get the endorsement and the nomination.

Biden has pretty much still said he is mourning the death of his son in 2015. Therefore I think Kamala wins the nomination.

It’s still very early though.

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Mourning the death of his son sounds like an excuse, Biden is weary of the kind of scrutiny his candidacy would bring. He's probably compromised with underage tapes, that would explain his reticence to go for the brass ring, which was practically his in 2016.

Kamala is Hillary with a bit less baggage, she looks like the frontrunner at this point. Brown woman from a Jewish household deeply engrained in the DNC machine, what's not to like... Jimmy Dore comments on the cunt:

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Well guys, if you want to start putting money down on this, here's where to start

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-...-candidate

Ladbrokes currently has Beto at 9-2, Kamala at 3-1, Biden at 5-1, Warren at 12-1. There's a whole slew inbetween their big longshot, Al Franken at 100 - 1. (not happening).

Biggest longshot overall, at 500-1, is Kanye West, you can get that on Unibet and 888sport.

I might put some money down on some of these candidates. Democrats are emotional wrecks these days, and might be stupid enough to nominate Michelle Obama, she's in at 40-1 at BetVictor.

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Pictures are out of Beto in a onesie. He is finished.

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(01-23-2019 04:34 PM)floor7 Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 01:19 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 12:49 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  I'm very bullish on Kamala Harris

Mace, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you said you would vote for Oprah a long time ago, right?

Would you vote for Kamala Harris. I'm not an American, so would love to hear what the more liberal oriented men on this forum think (after all, you guys are the ones who will be voting in the primaries).

I don't post here often but I am also much more liberal than the vast majority on here but Kamala is a hard no for me.

She has some strengths in the field due to identity but will get quickly cut down if sufficiently attacked enough.

She's the Rubio of the field.

Appreciate the response. Anyone in particular you do fancy yourself voting for?

(01-24-2019 06:02 AM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 01:19 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 12:49 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  I'm very bullish on Kamala Harris

Mace, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you said you would vote for Oprah a long time ago, right?

Would you vote for Kamala Harris. I'm not an American, so would love to hear what the more liberal oriented men on this forum think (after all, you guys are the ones who will be voting in the primaries).

I'm not going to go back through my past posts.

I assume I mentioned Oprah in a post and my comment is being taken out of context, which is par for the course here.

Regardless, PM me if you'd like a more detailed response.

?

Wasn't meant as an attack. I remember Oprah came up once and a lot of guys here was quick to dismiss her without a second thought. It seemed dangerous to me considering she's a TV personality and knows how to sell (and reminded me how people on the left dismissed Donald Trump).

I believe I saw you stating you'd vote for Oprah (might've been some other black forum member). I appreciated the post since I wanted to hear what the liberal members of RVF think without any prejudice on my part. Again, after all, it's not the Republican members of the forum that are going to be voting in the D primaries.

It's the same for AOC - I want to hear what members of the forum think of her. I was a bit annoyed that some people here dismiss her completely or even try to shame other members for discussing her...this while my Facebook is lit up with liberal friends who are really, really digging the 70% tax rate idea she mentioned. Everyone on the right can put their heads in the sand and pretend AOC doesn't exist, but that doesn't change the fact people on the left (especially the Millennial generation) seem to love her.

What AOC taught me actually, especially with the 70% tax rate idea, is that the right is ignoring some major problems. We all talk about the elites and globalists. What did Trump do? Right, a tax cut for the rich. Trump, quite frankly, cucks hard for (((them))) and (((Wall Street))).

That's a serious issue the left can gain from in terms of votes. It's a bit mind-boggling to consider that AOC's anti-Semitism and tax the rich ideas might do far more damage to (((them))) than anything the right is coming up with.

I initially dismissed AOC completely - she seemed par for the course, Latina that won in NYC. Ok, what's the big deal. But then I kept seeing my liberal friends talk about her, and I started wondering if there was something more to her.

I'm not a Democrat, not a liberal. So it's quite hard for me to understand how Democratic voters are thinking. It was something I was reminded of when AOC came about. So always open to hearing their perspective.

Anyway, I do hope more liberal RVF'ers express their opinions on Dem nominees for 2020, AOC, etc. Would love to hear your guys' detailed thoughts

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(01-24-2019 12:35 PM)rpg Wrote:  Pictures are out of Beto in a onesie. He is finished.

Wow, straight out of Comet Ping Pong.

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Fair enough Genghis. Don't think I'd ever vote for Oprah.

I like Kamala from more of an odds perspective. She has the right combo of factors working in her favor:

1) as the only black woman running, she'll take advantage of the momentum Michelle Obama started over 2018
2) She's the only Silicon Valley-located person running, I believe
3) her half-indian status? She is going to pimp the hell out of that. It'll bring the indian (and Asian) communities into the fold (i.e both Google and Microsoft have Indian CEOs)

She's basically the "globalist plant" of this cycle, IMO.

Her weakness? She's tough on crime, but personally I like her even more because of that. Despite my more liberal tendencies, I believe we NEED to actively work to root out dangerous undesirables from our society. Partly why, I'm oddly warming up to the idea of The Wall.

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(01-24-2019 09:37 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  Fair enough Genghis. Don't think I'd ever vote for Oprah.

I like Kamala from more of an odds perspective. She has the right combo of factors working in her favor:

1) as the only black woman running, she'll take advantage of the momentum Michelle Obama started over 2018
2) She's the only Silicon Valley-located person running, I believe
3) her half-indian status? She is going to pimp the hell out of that. It'll bring the indian (and Asian) communities into the fold (i.e both Google and Microsoft have Indian CEOs)

She's basically the "globalist plant" of this cycle, IMO.

Her weakness? She's tough on crime, but personally I like her even more because of that. Despite my more liberal tendencies, I believe we NEED to actively work to root out dangerous undesirables from our society. Partly why, I'm oddly warming up to the idea of The Wall.

Furthermore, she went to Howard - THE HBCU. She'll have more "black street cred" than Obama right out of the gate. She also has a very combative speaking style, which would serve her well in the debates.

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(01-23-2019 08:46 AM)budoslavic Wrote:  

...

Oh...
So that is not a WWE wrestling promo ?

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Re: Beto in the sheep outfit singing Blitzkrieg Bop.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/c/onesie...vp-BBSEmBr

If you think this will somehow hurt his popularity then you are mad. If he released this a week before his senate election last year he would have won against Ted Cruz easily.

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It's going to be Harris. It's clear that the fake news media are trying to anoint her. She's as unlikable as Hillary but what do they care? She ticks off all the identity politics boxes. I don't see any particular persuasion skill to her but they'll try to paper it over. If she wins shit will be way worse than Obama's years.

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(01-24-2019 01:16 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 04:34 PM)floor7 Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 01:19 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 12:49 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  I'm very bullish on Kamala Harris

Mace, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you said you would vote for Oprah a long time ago, right?

Would you vote for Kamala Harris. I'm not an American, so would love to hear what the more liberal oriented men on this forum think (after all, you guys are the ones who will be voting in the primaries).

I don't post here often but I am also much more liberal than the vast majority on here but Kamala is a hard no for me.

She has some strengths in the field due to identity but will get quickly cut down if sufficiently attacked enough.

She's the Rubio of the field.

Appreciate the response. Anyone in particular you do fancy yourself voting for?

(01-24-2019 06:02 AM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 01:19 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

(01-23-2019 12:49 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  I'm very bullish on Kamala Harris

Mace, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you said you would vote for Oprah a long time ago, right?

Would you vote for Kamala Harris. I'm not an American, so would love to hear what the more liberal oriented men on this forum think (after all, you guys are the ones who will be voting in the primaries).

I'm not going to go back through my past posts.

I assume I mentioned Oprah in a post and my comment is being taken out of context, which is par for the course here.

Regardless, PM me if you'd like a more detailed response.

?

Wasn't meant as an attack. I remember Oprah came up once and a lot of guys here was quick to dismiss her without a second thought. It seemed dangerous to me considering she's a TV personality and knows how to sell (and reminded me how people on the left dismissed Donald Trump).

I believe I saw you stating you'd vote for Oprah (might've been some other black forum member). I appreciated the post since I wanted to hear what the liberal members of RVF think without any prejudice on my part. Again, after all, it's not the Republican members of the forum that are going to be voting in the D primaries.

It's the same for AOC - I want to hear what members of the forum think of her. I was a bit annoyed that some people here dismiss her completely or even try to shame other members for discussing her...this while my Facebook is lit up with liberal friends who are really, really digging the 70% tax rate idea she mentioned. Everyone on the right can put their heads in the sand and pretend AOC doesn't exist, but that doesn't change the fact people on the left (especially the Millennial generation) seem to love her.

What AOC taught me actually, especially with the 70% tax rate idea, is that the right is ignoring some major problems. We all talk about the elites and globalists. What did Trump do? Right, a tax cut for the rich. Trump, quite frankly, cucks hard for (((them))) and (((Wall Street))).

That's a serious issue the left can gain from in terms of votes. It's a bit mind-boggling to consider that AOC's anti-Semitism and tax the rich ideas might do far more damage to (((them))) than anything the right is coming up with.

I initially dismissed AOC completely - she seemed par for the course, Latina that won in NYC. Ok, what's the big deal. But then I kept seeing my liberal friends talk about her, and I started wondering if there was something more to her.

I'm not a Democrat, not a liberal. So it's quite hard for me to understand how Democratic voters are thinking. It was something I was reminded of when AOC came about. So always open to hearing their perspective.

Anyway, I do hope more liberal RVF'ers express their opinions on Dem nominees for 2020, AOC, etc. Would love to hear your guys' detailed thoughts

I don't mind some of AOC's ideas, but she is a terrible spokesperson for them due to just not having high enough 'g' so she gets caught saying dumb stuff that invalidates kernels of decent ideas. I can't really stand her.

As for who I would vote for in this field. So far, Andrew Yang would probably be my top pick, Tulsi Gabbard is quite good, maybe on Warren and Bernie. If Jeff Merkley ran, perhaps him.

Harris, Gillibrand, Booker, Biden, Castro, Bloomberg, Beto, Buttigieg, Schultz etc are all hard no's. I would probably rather see Trump win over the aforementioned.

In fact, if Trump actually follows through on Syria/Afghanistan pullouts and continues further disengagement, there is a good chance I would vote for him.

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Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang seem like the most reasonable candidates but both lack the cool factor to appeal to the Democratic base.

Gabbard's selling points are: female, minority, anti-war. The first two are overshadowed by other candidates, and nobody in the Democratic base has cared for anti-war since 2011.

Andrew Yang, being a highly educated, intelligent, productive Asian male, falls far outside of what either party's base will vote for.

People don't want reasonable, they want cool. As Easy_C said in the AOC thread, the left is cognitively female.

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Gabbard has being getting super hammered by people on the left despite her progressive policies for meeting with Assad and anti-war stance (being anti-war is no longer liberal stance), I don't think she has a chance.

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