Post: #51

As a pro gambler and as someone who tends to make quite a bit of money doing certain types of wagers based on election outcomes, I would take any amount for 100-1 against Trump. That he won't put his money where is mouth is speaks volumes.

Nate Silver is probably correct given the normal D+4 spread of the US and the uncertainty in polling of must win states for Trump. The better question is if you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning, what type of wager can you make that will return more than 3x. And as of now, there are many, so Trump is definitely the sharp side.

Post: #52

(11-07-2016 02:10 PM)Mr. Accuride Wrote:  As a pro gambler and as someone who tends to make quite a bit of money doing certain types of wagers based on election outcomes, I would take any amount for 100-1 against Trump. That he won't put his money where is mouth is speaks volumes.

Nate Silver is probably correct given the normal D+4 spread of the US and the uncertainty in polling of must win states for Trump. The better question is if you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning, what type of wager can you make that will return more than 3x. And as of now, there are many, so Trump is definitely the sharp side.

How much skin do you have in the game?

Post: #53

(11-07-2016 02:16 PM)Gmac Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 02:10 PM)Mr. Accuride Wrote:  As a pro gambler and as someone who tends to make quite a bit of money doing certain types of wagers based on election outcomes, I would take any amount for 100-1 against Trump. That he won't put his money where is mouth is speaks volumes.

Nate Silver is probably correct given the normal D+4 spread of the US and the uncertainty in polling of must win states for Trump. The better question is if you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning, what type of wager can you make that will return more than 3x. And as of now, there are many, so Trump is definitely the sharp side.

How much skin do you have in the game?

I have roughly $20k in various wagers ranging from straight bets from predictit to correlated market plays. This includes some contracts that I hold at 25-1 for Trump to become president since August 2015.

And no I have not hedged out.

Post: #54

(11-07-2016 02:21 PM)Mr. Accuride Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 02:16 PM)Gmac Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 02:10 PM)Mr. Accuride Wrote:  As a pro gambler and as someone who tends to make quite a bit of money doing certain types of wagers based on election outcomes, I would take any amount for 100-1 against Trump. That he won't put his money where is mouth is speaks volumes.

Nate Silver is probably correct given the normal D+4 spread of the US and the uncertainty in polling of must win states for Trump. The better question is if you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning, what type of wager can you make that will return more than 3x. And as of now, there are many, so Trump is definitely the sharp side.

How much skin do you have in the game?

I have roughly $20k in various wagers ranging from straight bets from predictit to correlated market plays. This includes some contracts that I hold at 25-1 for Trump to become president since August 2015.

And no I have not hedged out.

Balls. I've got a few grand in but that's all I can really afford. Still going to be a fantastic payday come Wednesday. Had I gotten in sooner I would have been able to take advantage of those 100:1 or even 20:1 odds.

Post: #55

(11-07-2016 02:27 PM)Gmac Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 02:21 PM)Mr. Accuride Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 02:16 PM)Gmac Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 02:10 PM)Mr. Accuride Wrote:  As a pro gambler and as someone who tends to make quite a bit of money doing certain types of wagers based on election outcomes, I would take any amount for 100-1 against Trump. That he won't put his money where is mouth is speaks volumes.

Nate Silver is probably correct given the normal D+4 spread of the US and the uncertainty in polling of must win states for Trump. The better question is if you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning, what type of wager can you make that will return more than 3x. And as of now, there are many, so Trump is definitely the sharp side.

How much skin do you have in the game?

I have roughly $20k in various wagers ranging from straight bets from predictit to correlated market plays. This includes some contracts that I hold at 25-1 for Trump to become president since August 2015.

And no I have not hedged out.

Balls. I've got a few grand in but that's all I can really afford. Still going to be a fantastic payday come Wednesday. Had I gotten in sooner I would have been able to take advantage of those 100:1 or even 20:1 odds.

Respect Accuride and GMAC. I just doubled down on Trump. Have $200 riding on this. This is a big deal for me because I am not a gambler -- never taken a bet in my life.

Post: #56

Have about 2k in the markets betting on a win, spread across various call options. I got destroyed today as the market rallied, but we will see where it all goes tomorrow and Wednesday.

Post: #57

Unfortunately I have to be somewhat more cautious.

   

I feel fairly good about Ohio. It's really a tailor-made state for him.

I feel fairly good about Iowa.

I feel fairly good about Florida because while Hispanic turnout is up, white turnout is way up and black turnout is down. Also prominent in Florida are the Cubans who traditionally vote Republican and Marco Rubio is likely to keep his Senate seat. I also saw a poll where ~30% of Hispanics there voted GOP but it was on the Clinton News Network so I'm not sure.

North Carolina is trickier, but if trends from 2012 continue there it should go to Trump.

Trump is likely to win Maine's 2nd district.

The problem is he needs to flip one of these other states or the combination of Nevada and New Hampshire. New Hampshire is close. But Nevada seems likely to slip away.

Pennsylvania unfortunately seems like it slipped away. He had a shot at it but it doesn't look likely now.

Here's where the cuckservatives totally failed on immigration because this is what happens when you start losing your states. Pre-2008 Virginia would've been a sure thing for the GOP, and as such, the White House. Maybe someone other than Trump would've likely taken it but his offer doesn't seem too good there.

Same thing with Colorado.

But who knows? Maybe Nevada and New Hampshire both flip. Nevada has low "social connectedness" which is good for Trump. The problem is Nevada is seeing huge Hispanic turnout and also has a lot of Mormon pearl clutchers.

Michigan is also great for Trump, and recall that Bernie won it from 20 points behind on largely the same message (trade). But things like that aren't predictable using any hard data, which I assume, a map like this is generally for. It's going to be closer than normal, but you still have to predict a Democrat win by tradition.

So that's where I have to stand based on what I can see for sure. It doesn't take into account persuasion or a hidden Trump vote which could be crucial. It also doesn't account for the sheer volatility in the system this year, which Nassem Taleb has made a fool out of Nate Silver for (his model doesn't either).

I think this thing is going to be very close. If the Democrats didn't get to import voters for so many years it would be a foregone conclusion.

Here's where we get to put all of this to the test.

Prepare for the worst tonight. Tomorrow, you think of nothing but going out, persuading people if you can, and the friends by your side.

Maybe we're in for an Agincourt moment. We just can't predict it with any certainty.

Post: #58

Here's mine i hope i'm right MAGA

Post: #59

Jesus, a few grand and 20k?

I haven't bet any money on this election, as I don't gamble

Post: #60

This is my FINAL prediction, as objective as I could be based on polls and their biases, the non-MSM news, energy levels and enthusiasm gaps, and what I know about each state and their unique demographics.

Feeling good about NV and CO because Latinos are trending toward Trump thanks to the spirit cooking stuff.

   

Post: #61

My analytical side says Trump wins. My gut is split, part of me feels like she will win but I blame this on the constant propaganda. The other half of my emotions say that a man like Trump can't go down with a loss, his legacy doesn't end this way. It can't happen. He is a winner.

I couldn't get the map to post, don't know why.

Trump loses PA but wins Michigan in exchange and does become president with EV in the 270s.

Post: #62

(11-08-2016 12:11 AM)Jaydublin Wrote:  My analytical side says Trump wins. My gut is split, part of me feels like she will win but I blame this on the constant propaganda. The other half of my emotions say that a man like Trump can't go down with a loss, his legacy doesn't end this way. It can't happen. He is a winner.

I couldn't get the map to post, don't know why.

Trump loses PA but wins Michigan in exchange and does become president with EV in the 270s.

Make your map, hit the green button directly south of the Florida panhandle that says "share map" and hit the little mountain sun button below that, then go to "embed your map" and then cut and paste the HTML code.

Post: #63

My final Prediction. MAGA victory!

And yes...i know Oregon is RED.

Post: #64

It would be neat if Washington went red.

Post: #65

Post: #66

(11-07-2016 06:38 PM)Libertas Wrote:  Unfortunately I have to be somewhat more cautious.

My map is just like yours, except I have Michigan for Trump. Win!

Post: #67

You guys have been fucking around too long, we all know this will be the real results.

Link in case image gets removed: http://i65.tinypic.com/14wwymg.jpg

Post: #68

Colorado will go Hillary because all the potheads will be "paraniod" Trump will take their ganja. POTHEADS FOR HER.

NH was a great great state once but has been taken over by two decades of Massholes moving there, with HER.

NC nanny banking state, Hillary.

VA .mil state, needs the wars, needs new wars, please god take us to a real war somewhere, Hail Hillary.

MI fuck this we want our factories back, DT

MN run by post menopausal liberal white women bowing to Somali interests, arrow to HER.

Welfare bunnies all over america, with HER.

Entertainment and media, with HER (because a productive society needs less of their crap.)

Families, working, small business owners, DT.

People who like the nature based reality of our language and its pronouns, and other people who live by common sense. DT.

People living in or near the horrifying crime ridden inner cities of the East, MidWest, West, South, with DT unless on welfare.

Criminals, all with HER and her criminal friends and pardon / clemency types.

The 22 million government employees in this country who all know 98% of them are living on stolen money and borrowed time and do little other than watch the clock of life waiting on that pension. WITH HER.

In closing, FIRE HER.

Post: #69

It's funny, the only worse possible thing than a Hillary presidency would be a Jeb! presidency.

My map is very similar to the no toss up map right now on realclearpolitics, except I think he will take New Hampshire after getting the endorsements of Tom Brady and Bill Bellichek.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...s_ups.html

Trump 270, Hillary 268

It'd be great if he takes PA or Michigan or Colorado to boot. Hell even Virginia is considered a toss up at this point.

Post: #70

@Libertas Great breakdown
@Off The Reservation Hilarious and brilliant descriptions! Great stuff!
Thanks to both of you and to all the others who've posted up their predictions
Ireland, like most Anglo countries, is mostly shilling for HRC but there are pockets of red pill types around too backing Trump
Hoping DT can close the deal tomorrow night
Am tempted to stay up into the early hours to watch it

Post: #71

Actually Nevada and Colorado are looking better than I initially expected.

If he takes Colorado, he wins on my map.

If he takes both he's got some breathing room.

Post: #72

What do you think about Michigan Libertas?

I'm surprised you're not more optimistic about it.

Post: #73

It's a good state for him for sure.

It's going to be far closer than normal.

Just given the history of the state and what data I have available to me I just see the hag squeaking out a win there, unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong, because if I am, he likely wins with some breathing room. I just can't predict it based on hard data.

Maybe his persuasion game and the volatility out there shifts it red. Who knows?

Post: #74

My very unscientific take.

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map.../ymm6k.png[attachment=34429][attachment=34429]

Post: #75

My take: sweaty bum time.