There is an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal about the continuing "baby lull" in the US. Birth rates have bounced back only a little from the recession lows, and are still well below 2007 levels (which themselves were just at replacement level):
Baby Lull Promises Growing Pains for Economy
Quote:The U.S. is experiencing a baby lull that looks set to last for years, a shift demographers say will likely ripple through the U.S. economy and have an impact on everything from maternity wards to federal social programs.
U.S. births have edged up modestly since 2013, a trend likely to continue when last year’s official federal figures are scheduled to come out in June. That has stemmed a sharp drop in child bearing that started with the onset of the recession in 2007.
But behind that sliver of good news are more-worrisome signs that the U.S. may not soon return to its pre-recession average of about two babies for every adult woman. Some demographers have pared their forecasts for future births because an expected post-recession baby boom has been smaller than anticipated.
...
Demographic Intelligence, a Charlottesville, Va., firm that forecasts birth trends, projects there were about 4 million babies born in the U.S. in 2015, up slightly from the 3.99 million babies born the previous year. The total fertility rate—a snapshot that measures the number of births the average woman will have during her lifetime—is expected to rise to 1.87 in 2015 from 1.86 the previous year, according to the firm. It says its projections, which rely on unemployment rates, consumer-confidence measures and other variables, have been about 99% accurate in recent years.
ENLARGE
That is well below the relatively strong fertility rates that started during the late 1980s and lasted until 2007, when the total fertility rate peaked at 2.12 babies per woman. The lower rates since then translate to about 3.4 million fewer births between 2008 and 2015, according to Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire.
“Everything is slower than we expected,” said Sam Sturgeon, president of Demographic Intelligence. His firm recently called an end to the quarter-century era when Americans experienced exceptionally high fertility rates for a developed nation, and he predicts that the total fertility rate won’t go above 1.9 babies per woman for the next five years or longer.
A fertility rate of just 1.87 in the US is ridiculously low -- not quite at Japan or Korea or Western Europe levels, but well below replacement and well below what the US typically has and what we had just 10 years ago.
Trump should speak about the
Obama-Clinton baby lull and how people are not having babies in the US because they have no confidence and no belief in the future. We need new energies, a new America full of promise for its families that will usher in the
#TrumpBabyBoom. This will accomplished by taking care of America First and jump-starting our economy, but also by specific policies that will help Americans have big and successful families. Any policy ideas that help make the #TrumpBabyBoom a reality will be on the table.
The baby lull is an expression of the fatigue and stagnation of the Obama-Clinton years -- the result of the same
tired Clinton ideas. Trump will bring in a new get-it-done
pragmatic brilliance and new energies; and Americans will be getting a lot of baby-making done in the Trump presidency. It's going to be a fun time in this country again.
Share this with Trump people online, particularly
Bill Mitchell.
EDIT:
Here is a plot of US fertility rates and births by year:
You can see that the only time fertility rates were as low as they are now was during the "malaise" period of the '70s. That was routed by Reagan's "Morning in America",
and in the same way the Obama-Clinton baby lull will be routed by the #TrumpBabyBoom.