Post: #1

I live abroad now. I originally was registered to vote in Massachusetts, but seeing as that state is so hopelessly gone when it comes to politics I want to register in states where the primary and general election vote count the most.

So, i'm going to be going back to the states in a few weeks to take care of a few things. This being one of them.

I'll be able to set my address on my US driver's license in either state thanks to family who live in both. They're both cool with it and are letting me draw up a fake "tenancy" letter as proof of residency.

So the question is, what state is more of a swing state: Ohio or Pennsylvania?

Personally leaning towards Ohio.

Post: #2

Ohio is probably safe Trump, Penn will be a swing state this election and your vote will matter more there.

Post: #3

Lot of potential angles to consider.

OH is worth 18 votes in the Electoral College. PA gets 20 votes. The electoral consequences winning one or the other won't matter unless it all comes down to 2 or fewer votes. Since the populations in both states are almost equal, your vote has an almost identical influence in the outcome of the election in the state you pick.

In 2012, Obama won both states over Romney. The split was 51-48% in OH and 52-47% in PA. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have historically made PA a little bit more blue than Cleveland and Cincinnati do for OH, but again, the difference is virtually negligible.

You should also consider how each of them has voted in the past. OH has gone red in 5 of the past 10 elections (twice for Reagan, once for George H.W. Bush and twice for W). PA has only gone red in 3 of the past 10 elections (twice for Reagan and once for George H.W. Bush). It's been almost 30 years since a Republican picked up PA.

But one of the best metrics for a swing state is voting for the winning candidate. PA is pretty good in that regard, voting for the winner in 8 of the past 10 elections (it voted for Democrat losers Gore and Kerry). But OH is make or break for the White House. In the past 10 elections, all 10 winners have gone on to become President (Carter to Obama). The talking heads aren't lying when they say OH is important.

In the end, it probably won't make a big difference. If Republicans pick off PA and/or OH (or Democrats keep both), the election is practically over.