Post: #26

London is one biggggggggggggggggggg hosing bubble that will pop .
http://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals-and-...partments/

Post: #27

(11-18-2015 07:41 PM)cosworth Wrote:  London is one biggggggggggggggggggg hosing bubble that will pop .
http://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals-and-...partments/

It's unlikely the "bubble" component of the price growth is all that big. Even if it pops, I suspect foreign money will keep pouring in buying central apartments as assets, which is what's making everywhere else expensive for ordinary people.

Also, oversupply of new luxury apartments is a somewhat separate market. They aren't even advertised locally, and aren't available to rent. Presumably they will keep trying to sell them to foreign buyers and just stop building new fancy developments if demand lags for a few years.

But as long as the economy doesn't crash, I can't see average housing prices dropping drastically any time soon... I may well be wrong though. What might happen is a small decrease followed by slower growth.

I like this guy's take:

http://www.propertygeek.net/house-price-crash/


"Is London overvalued because we’re in bubble territory and speculators are pushing it ever higher…or are prices just high because of off-the-charts demand and limited supply? And if the latter, is that going to change any time soon?"

It's clearly some of each, not purely the former. In which case, it might not drop nearly as much as some ppl predict.

Post: #28

It's mostly about lack of supply rather than an oversupply of credit. Banks don't have NINJA loans on their books (no income, job or assets). To get a loan you need a 20% deposit, they you can get a mortgage capped at x 4 times salary. You are stress tested to account for interest rate rises up to +2.0% on current levels.

The main element is the massive, massive structural imbalance between supply and demand which is getting worse each passing year. There is no political means to build in the numbers that would help re-balance the ledger either.

Post: #29

True , the demand is coming from foreign investors and buy to let landlords making up a large chunk ..

If they get sniff that prices might fall then it will be one massive rush for the exit door.

http://www.cityam.com/227139/deutsche-ba...erty-party
DB's take on it .. If Prime falls a it will bring down the rest of the market.

Wish I bought back when i moved to london 11 yrs ago , but prices were high then and the dot com bubble had just burst .. Economy was very dodgy at the time.
What I did foresee was the massive intervention from central banks !

Post: #30

(11-18-2015 12:17 PM)cosworth Wrote:  I'm in asw, as well. How did you run game on there ??
I've just cancelled my membership as I thought it was poor value for money. The meet ups were pants ..

1. Have a bunch of pictures in a suit
2. Geolocator
3. Hey I'm new in London, want to meet some fellow ASW'ers!
4. Weed out the dudes, fatties, feminists
5. Game on!

I also talked to a bunch of people trying to do import/export business and I added them to my connections so my network looked legit.