Post: #1

Is he day dreaming?

I know this kid who is 22, he is probably one of the most intelligent person I have ever met, if not the most intelligent. He works hard, he is smart and he is business oriented. As today he doesn't have much money if any.

He keeps on telling me that he will be will a billionaire before he is 30. He reminds me of the old me, I used to say I was going to be a millionaire before I was 30 and I am far from being a millionaire even though I am almost 30 (my case is different, I lost focus and got more into travelling and girls and cared less about money).

I tell him that I see him having a great future but making one billion before you are 30 is very very hard, taking into account that he is dominican and this country (DR) doesn't offer him many opportunities, his goal may not be so realistic. Obviously I didn't really say that to him and I don't want to discourage him.

Are guys in their 20's planning to become billionaires before 30 not being realistic with their goals?

Post: #2

The probability of anyone becoming a billonnaire is remotely small.

Simply wishing it to be is usually not enough.

Being smart will also get you only so far. None of the smartest people I know are that wealthy.

Good luck to him though. Always think big.

Post: #3

Outside of starting something like facebook or uber it's so unrealistic.

Post: #4

I don't think most billionaires knew they were going to be billionaires. Maybe they just knew they would try their hardest to be successful.

Post: #5

Not really mate, it's really a good thing and a bad thing in my opinion. By setting an extremely high goal he'll most likely stay focused on his work and goals and not get too distracted like how the most of us have.

Post: #6

Of course he's daydreaming. Unless there are extenuating circumstances (e.g. he already has 100MM, his father has 1bn, etc), the chances are so astronomically small that I'd be comfortable rounding them down to 0.

That said, there's nothing wrong with pipe dreams. Dreams keep you alive. And there's truth to the old saying about shooting for the moon and landing amongst the stars.

Post: #7

There are 1826 billionares in the world. I know one of them personally, they are human too like you and me. But his chances of becoming one are slim to none.

Post: #8

Not unless there's 1920s German-style inflation...
There are fewer than 2000 billionaires on the entire planet, no one can confidently say they're joining that group. No matter how (smart, ambitious, hard-working, etc.) you are, you still need amazing luck.

That being said, thinking big is good for your mindset I think.

Post: #9

(09-20-2015 12:51 PM)Turkish Republican Wrote:  There are 1826 billionares in the world. I know one of them personally, they are human too like you and me. But his chances of becoming one are slim to none.

Wow, I didn't know there were so few. Stats on their nationality, education, amount of time it took them could be interesting...

To OP : as others have answered before, yes it is unrealistic. However why does your friend have this specific number in mind ? What does he want to achieve by doing that ? Does he have something to prove to someone in particular or is he simply wishing the best for himself ?

Being smart isn't all it takes, you need to be very business oriented and as the saying goes, "better lucky than good".

Post: #10

I worked with a kid who became a billionaire.

His dad who is a billionaire put about 3 billion dollars worth of assets in his son's name which makes the son a billionaire.

That's one way to become a billionaire.

Post: #11

(09-20-2015 12:33 PM)pitt Wrote:  I know this kid who is 22, he is probably one of the most intelligent person I have ever met, if not the most intelligent. He works hard, he is smart and he is business oriented. As today he doesn't have much money if any.

I also know a guy who claims he "only chills with dimes," but has a washed-up club hoochie--who wears way too much makeup, and too-high high-heels, for the occasion--as his girlfriend. She also could stand to drop 20 clicks, and is on the wrong side of 15-year trip from puberty to wall collision. Another guy I know, whenever we go out and see 20-years-old hotties walking around with half their ass hanging out, will say--with a straight face--that he "would consider hitting that up" if he didn't have the "most beautiful wife." Even by a generous estimate, she was a 5.5 on her wedding day. He also has no game. In fact, he's one the biggest cockblockers I've ever met.

A lot of dudes are delusional.

I've met one certified billionaire my whole life, and maybe 2-3 children of billionaires. That's probably above the mean statistically, and is a tiny-tiny fraction of the people I've met in my years. So the odds are stacked against anyone becoming a billionaire, never mind by age 30. In none of those cases were they self-made. They had inherited--or stood to inherit--a greater part of their riches. They certainly hadn't done so by age 30. Making a billion on your own takes extraordinary accomplishment, often at extraordinary moments in a given field. Dr. Dre--arguably the greatest hip-hop star of all time--didn't do so till like last year, at age 50. Mark Cuban did it at around 40, at the height of one of the largest booms in financial history. This friend of the OP, in not so many words, is claiming to be one to two decades better than these two cats.

I consider the fact that he's "intelligent" a further liability. The type of smarts you describe and being wealthy are often inversely correlated. Smart doesn't equal smart doesn't smart. The smarts that make you billions is different than the smarts that make you good at calculus or writing a term paper. I'm willing to bet serious money that you put me in a room with this guy, and I'm "smarter" than him in most fields of the arts and sciences. Am I billionaire? No. Do I think I could become one in 8 years? No. To keep with the examples above, Mark Cuban and Dr. Dre are smarter than 10 versions of me stacked up on top of each other when it comes to business acumen and conjuring things of extraordinary value out of their surroundings.

"Smarts" in a man are about as common as bangability is in a pool of non-fat women, in the 18-22 age range. This is a bit like these chicks who are cute for a hot minute, on the simple laws of youth and peak fertility, and think they're "models." Just like it takes a lot more than a pair of daisy duke shorts and an Instagram account to make a model, it takes a lot more than confidence and the very-common trait of being kinda smart to make a billionaire.

This guy sounds like a moron. Nothing wrong with being confident in your general success--say, believing you can be a millionaire by a certain age, like the OP did, or accomplish something else that's difficult but attainable--but this degree of unrealistic sureness in yourself is more of a statement about his generation than of his "hard work" or talent. It also speaks to his naivete: clear in his fundamental failure to understand the context in which he's growing up. Being 22 and ambitious in 2015 isn't the same as being 22 and ambitious in 1980 or even 1990.

Social media seems to have not only made a generation of women delusionally over-confident, but also a generation of men.

Post: #12

That attitude is a good way to end up a millionaire before 30, which I'd consider an adequate consolation prize. So good for him.

Post: #13

So he aims for the stars even if he only hits the moon he's done a hell of a job. I'm sure no one believed any of today's self made billionaires, whom said they would be billionaires, before they were billionaires, would actually see that goal. Will he make it??? Odds are he'll never make it but with the right attitude, mindset, he can do very well. Most people don't have his vision (whatever that maybe) so most people won't understand, and will do nothing but say it's not possible for him to do so because they themselves cannot and known it.

Post: #14

For all the billionaires out there, I think people like to hugely discount the amount of luck required. In Malcolm Gladwell's book "Outliers" he touches on this. Basically if you wanted to be amongst the 19th century robber barons, in addition to being hard working, intelligent, and industrious, you needed to be born at the right place and time (America-1830s).

It's truly a confluence of internal and external circumstances. Bill Gates had the interest, access, and disposition to become one of the foremost computer programmers/experts around, at a time when computers were just coming into mainstream. Had his interest, access, geography, or timing been off (a few of which are completely outside of his control), things may have turned out different.

Finally, "planning to be a billionaire" seems like putting the horse before the cart. That sort of money is generally a consequence of passion, hardwork, opportunity, and luck, rather than a goal itself. If your goal is just to have a lot of money to buy nice things, I think most people would stop before they hit the 10 figure mark....

Post: #15

---what seadog said.

It's not enough to have a high IQ and be 'driven', you have to be in the right time right place.

How many great musicians sold millions of records in the 80s and 90s, but now if you're a great musician you're lucky to sell 100k records because no one buys albums anymore.

It's the same with any business, timing is everything. The present culture and situation will trump however smart you are. Even if you are trying to go public with an IPO, the current market conditions wont allow for another wave of dot-com millionaires/billionaires because everyone is guarding their own cash carefully. If you're in the wrong time period it doesn't matter how smart you are. The game changes, the conditions change. You can't replicate what someone else did because the global economy changes dramatically on almost a weekly basis now. What was a good business idea 8 years ago isn't a good idea anymore, etc..

that's why you see so many older businessmen who are over 50 years old, when they started their business a long time ago the economy and market conditions (and demographics) were extremely different. If you try and replicate them you'll fail because the situation has changed immensely.

Finally, with Clinton/Sanders being popular, capital gains tax will keep rising. So even if you sell your start-up for big money, taxes alone will ensure you wouldn't become very rich.

Post: #16

One thing's for sure.

His chances would be higher if the only one he was telling that to was himself.

There's a lesson between the lines there.

Post: #17

It's good that he's aiming high, but I doubt he realizes how much money one billion actually is. I know of a couple guys who said they would be millionaires by age thirty and succeeded. But I would rather say something like I want to be worth 5 million by age thirty. If I failed and only had 2 million in net worth, I'd be better off than the guy who says he wants to be a millionaire and succeeded. Your friend should try that for 30 to have a realistic path for the next 8 years. Then he can try to map out how he would get to a billion if he gets that far.

But I don't see the point of chasing the dream of becoming a billionaire just to become a billionaire, especially by a specific date. A few million in the bank would be more than enough for me. I would retire and live off of the interest my money was making. I'm sure most people would do the same unless they are as driven as Trump. Hell, if I had 100 million I wouldn't be able to spend it fast enough. A billion is ten times that.

If I had a few million, I would spend my days reading and going to the gym. I wouldn't be grinding it out in a board room or at a negotiation table. I would work 5-10 hours a week looking for good investments and the rest of my time enjoying life. I don't need a billion dollars to do that.

Post: #18

funny if he did

Post: #19

To me he just sounds annoying to be around, even as a young hungry buck at 22. Unless he is backing up that talk with action like starting businesses, creating/inventing products, starting in a high yield industry like Finance/Tech, I would largely disregard him. It sounds like he's read a single mom's worn out coffee stained version of The Secret, one too many times. Make a pact with him, that you will give him $1000 when he earns his first $1M, but he has to stay totally silent about his billion dollar aspirations. At least you can have more productive conversations with him.

Post: #20

It is a small club and most people get there by luck or serious connections.

To become a millionaire at any age takes a lot of luck and very hard work.

Post: #21

Very unlikely unless his family is plugged in and he has alot of start up capital. A millionaire is ostensibly more likely. Unrealistic ambition can make accepting reality checks that much More difficult when one first crashes and burns. It's good to have goals but they must be within reason.

I know many self made millionaires from the low 1m to 15m net worth. I also know about a dozen individuals in the 50m to 800m net worth range but this came from appreciating real estate holdings purchased in NYC / Los Angeles in the early 80s and a couple of overseas whales of real estate , oil , construction. These guys have large government contracts where they made a lot of their money.

I've also realized most self made millionaires are not college graduates but hard working mules who find opportunity and roll the dice aggressively. Many times they have failed before hitting it big. In the end all of them found a niche and capitalized on it.

Being 22 and talking about it is one thing , working double shifts , 7 days a week to start a real estate portfolio is a different story. This is the way I did it and it was the most difficult thing I've ever done in my life.

I've also realized that most people that talk about being very wealthy just run their mouths too much. The ones that succeed shut their mouths and work at least the ones that are self made. Also, Many times the friendship , vacations , and most things of enjoyment are compromised in reaching these goals. These things must be shelved to maximize potential.

In addition, it's all about opportunity cost. Once the seed money is set up, one must work efficiently by putting an hourly value on everything that you do. I put a value on my time and would outsource everything that fell below my hourly earning potential.

Post: #22

(09-20-2015 05:55 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  It is a small club and most people get there by luck or serious connections.

To become a millionaire at any age takes a lot of luck and very hard work.

Disagree with your second statement. Anyone in the western world can become a millionaire through hard work and diligent saving, without connections and having just average luck.

If you save 25k a year for 40 years, you have a million bucks. That's with 0% capital appreciation.

Post: #23

Maybe he will, maybe he won't. But "will he be a billionaire by 30" isn't the best question.

A better question is, "does he have the ability or skills to create highly desirable products that can scale to over a million units in sales?"

People tend to become that filthy rich because they have a product that once developed, costs almost nothing to duplicate, but for whatever reason "legal, technical" other people cannot create.

This is why software produced billionaires at a point, specifically Bill Gates. Even then, he had a lot of right time, right place, right family advantages that others in his generation who had the same abilities missed out on.

Honestly, it's my unqualified opinion that anyone who talks about their first billion before they've earned their first million is a delusional idiot.

Post: #24

I think he meant a billion dominican pesos.

Post: #25

(09-20-2015 12:33 PM)pitt Wrote:  Is he day dreaming?

I know this kid who is 22, he is probably one of the most intelligent person I have ever met, if not the most intelligent. He works hard, he is smart and he is business oriented. As today he doesn't have much money if any.

Billionare? yeah...maybe a bit ambitious. You shouldn't shit on him for the ambition though. Only take him to task if he's not doing anything to make it happen.

Funny story I know: Marc Cuban was similar where he went to college. The guy had an entrepenuerial streak at a young age and just about went bankrupt because his first business closed He'd started a local dive bar near his school that was doing fairly well until a contestant in a wet t-shirt contest turned out to be 17. The bar got shut down and Cuban was in the hole for his investment.

Didn't stop him.


That said I think the guy would be better served by taking baby steps first. Unless you get some extroardinary windfall(like inheriting money) you need to make your first 100 grand, then your first million, and so on.

Besides which what do you even need it for? Everything you'd ever dream of having(except for social engineering experiments) can be bought for a few hundred mil.