Post: #26

(05-03-2015 01:38 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  That is probably the most exact data available through the official channels - thanks. Still - there is one problem with it as far as I see: I don't believe it fully.

Especially if you select the males and the age group of 20-24 you will find that 50% of Americans between 20-24 are supposedly obese or massively overweight. Even with most European countries - countries where I am at weekly in Eastern and Western Europe it is supposedly 35-40% at ages of 20-24!

I simply don't believe it - one may say that you cannot argue with data, but I would like to know how they came about that data, because when I enter a university in Eastern Europe I have trouble finding 40% overweight and obese students. I'll give you 10-20%, but not 30-40%.

The data was gathered from different sources, and can thus be compared to a review article.

According to the page:
"Data were derived from surveys, reports, and published studies that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports."

If you dive into say Polish 20-24 year old females, the rate of overweight is given as 20%, with a 95% uncertainty interval from 13% to 27%. Add to this that educated women are typically more slim than the average. The numbers will then be in line with your Eastern European university experience.

Polish 20-24 guys are shown as 37% (with a 28%-46% uncertainty interval) - indeed higher. This might be partly because the Poles work out a lot and do physical labor, and thus a lot of their weight comes from muscles.

Post: #27

(05-03-2015 07:40 AM)allaround Wrote:  The data was gathered from different sources, and can thus be compared to a review article.

According to the page:
"Data were derived from surveys, reports, and published studies that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports."

If you dive into say Polish 20-24 year old females, the rate of overweight is given as 20%, with a 95% uncertainty interval from 13% to 27%. Add to this that educated women are typically more slim than the average. The numbers will then be in line with your Eastern European university experience.

Polish 20-24 guys are shown as 37% (with a 28%-46% uncertainty interval) - indeed higher. This might be partly because the Poles work out a lot and do physical labor, and thus a lot of their weight comes from muscles.

For men the BMI data is antiquated since the 1970s since we have all become more muscular - just watch any movie from the 1970s and compare it to a fraternity now. Even many fat guys are seldom skinny fat, but have some muscle beneath it - just a year of lifting does make a difference even if you stop later on.

As far as "educated" women being slimmer - well over 70% still study something in Poland - at one time at the height it was even over 90% (just a few years ago) showing you the worthlessness of it all. Now it's falling the last couple of years since they realized that the paper isn't worth it in most instances.

So when I say I meet most students, then I mean that I meet most young women. Of course it's now the men who are rather doing a different education. Women either start using their beauty somehow or move abroad. That rest that I don't see start working locally and they actually marry early or are in stable LTRs early on. They practically don't ride the carousel that much.

As far as the working man population is concerned - the local guys are not them - the majority spends their first adult years studying. The guys you see abroad are a different breed - partly the lowest part of the country and partly some of the most productive.

The statistic is good, but still lacking. It's always interesting how problematic those numbers are for the governments. You really have to dig deep and still don't get it right.

Post: #28

Zelcorpion,

The BMI is imperfect, but it's a good proxy for measuring the trend of higher average weight. If obesity is defined as BMI>30+, it's a pretty good statistic.

Also, let's give Eastern Europe some time to reach OECD levels. They've been free since 1990, it's been 25 years. The first post-communist generation still hasn't been eating a similar amount of calories (like their Western brethren) for most of their life. The discrepancies between the amount of calories eaten per country will over time disappear. I'm shocked to see how much they've already caught up.

The real story is the Middle East, though. ME govs really need to do something to keep their citizens fit. Eat less, but more healthy; and more exercise. The ME already has enough problems, they don't need to balloon their young people into a generation of baby elephants.