Post: #1

http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-centr...1427372191

"Brazil’s jobless rate rose to 5.9% in February, the highest in almost two years, according to the country’s statistics agency. Meanwhile, the central bank estimated gross domestic product shrank 0.1% in 2014 and forecast a contraction of 0.5% for this year, while revising its forecast for the 2015 inflation rate upward to 7.9%."

"Likewise, the central bank swung from the previous forecast of 0.6% growth in the year through September 2015 to predicting the economy will shrink 0.5% during all of 2015. If the bank’s estimate for 2014 and forecast for 2015 are both correct, it would be the first time in decades the country’s economy contracted in two consecutive years."

As lately people tend to believe that Europe was screwed while the BRICS where going to have the leadership this is interesting. That scenary that was obvious a couple of months ago it's not like that now.

The ruble and real falling and those countries getting shrinked. Oil seems to be a determinant in both cases, as the prices have affected russian economy and corruption in petrobras led to inestability in Brazil.

Post: #2

I would sure be happy to have a 6% unemployment rate...

Post: #3

Oil & commodities are a massive part of both Brazil and Russia's economies. Part of this drop is due to the fall off in commodity prices and oil, but in some ways the worst of that might be over. Russia for example now trades on oil for the most part.

Everyone always assumed that corruption in Russia is rampant, that corporate governance is terrible, companies are inefficient etc. so they have always had a big discount given to them when trading with their foreign peers.

But now it seems that in Brazil its potentially just as bad, even worse, especially with the Petrobras meltdown. Rousseff (a Feminist, socialist president) is seemingly running the country into the ground in some ways and there seems to be massive payoffs/corruption at all levels of government and the corporate space.

You think Dilma is bad? Get ready for Hillary!

Post: #4

(04-24-2015 03:36 AM)Dat ass Wrote:  http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-centr...1427372191

"Brazil’s jobless rate rose to 5.9% in February, the highest in almost two years, according to the country’s statistics agency. Meanwhile, the central bank estimated gross domestic product shrank 0.1% in 2014 and forecast a contraction of 0.5% for this year, while revising its forecast for the 2015 inflation rate upward to 7.9%."

"Likewise, the central bank swung from the previous forecast of 0.6% growth in the year through September 2015 to predicting the economy will shrink 0.5% during all of 2015. If the bank’s estimate for 2014 and forecast for 2015 are both correct, it would be the first time in decades the country’s economy contracted in two consecutive years."

As lately people tend to believe that Europe was screwed while the BRICS where going to have the leadership this is interesting. That scenary that was obvious a couple of months ago it's not like that now.

The ruble and real falling and those countries getting shrinked. Oil seems to be a determinant in both cases, as the prices have affected russian economy and corruption in petrobras led to inestability in Brazil.

When are people going to figure out that the words "emerging economy" are an aspiration rather than a prediction?

Post: #5

The exchange rate is very favorable these days for holders of American dollars. I was loving it during my last trip.

Post: #6

Brazil is a sideshow.

It's China that is going to cause the next global meltdown

Post: #7

(04-24-2015 08:07 PM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  Brazil is a sideshow.

It's China that is going to cause the next global meltdown

Brazil, Australia, Canada, and Russia have benefited tremendously from China's manufacturing boom. They are the commmodities resource engine that feeds the growth. When China's growth slows then all those economies will be impacted in various ways.

Australia and Canada are both going through huge economic peaks they will simply come down to earth a bit especially Australia with its sky high bubble valuations in real estate.

Brazil will suffer the most economic damage

Brazil's trade stats with China:

Quote:Exports - partners:
China 19%, US 10.3%, Argentina 8.1%, Netherlands 7.2% (2013)

Imports - partners:
China 15.6%, US 15.1%, Argentina 6.9%, Germany 6.3%, Nigeria 4% (2013)

Brazil exports a shitload of commodities to China.

Russia cut a long term oil deal with China to ward off sanctions. It will probably be insulated even during a China slowdown. I think one of the terms is that even during a major economic slowdown China is still required to import a certain amount of oil to fulfill obligations under the deal.

Post: #8

(04-24-2015 08:06 PM)Quintus Curtius Wrote:  The exchange rate is very favorable these days for holders of American dollars. I was loving it during my last trip.

No doubt, it nearly reached R$3.25 per dollar. Although it's sunk a bit to 2.95, that is still the highest in 10 years. Book your flights fellas.

Not an affiliate, but American flies to 10(!) Brazilian cities. Yes, mostly from Miami, but 6 cities serve Sao Paulo GRU. Sign up for an AA mastercard, spend $3k in 3 mos, get 50k miles.
Look at September and beyond, a round trip from US to Brazil is 40k miles, total.
So put a few big purchases on it, get your bonus miles, pay $20 or so for airline taxes, boom free trip to Brazil. Get on it.

Post: #9

(04-24-2015 08:26 PM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  

(04-24-2015 08:07 PM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  Brazil is a sideshow.

It's China that is going to cause the next global meltdown

Brazil, Australia, Canada, and Russia have benefited tremendously from China's manufacturing boom. They are the commmodities resource engine that feeds the growth. When China's growth slows then all those economies will be impacted in various ways.

Australia and Canada are both going through huge economic peaks they will simply come down to earth a bit especially Australia with its sky high bubble valuations in real estate.

Brazil will suffer the most economic damage

Brazil's trade stats with China:

Quote:Exports - partners:
China 19%, US 10.3%, Argentina 8.1%, Netherlands 7.2% (2013)

Imports - partners:
China 15.6%, US 15.1%, Argentina 6.9%, Germany 6.3%, Nigeria 4% (2013)

Brazil exports a shitload of commodities to China.

Russia cut a long term oil deal with China to ward off sanctions. It will probably be insulated even during a China slowdown. I think one of the terms is that even during a major economic slowdown China is still required to import a certain amount of oil to fulfill obligations under the deal.

Chinese debt is the elephant in the room.

An elephant that is being hidden by a government backed magician and that won't be seen fully until it's too late to see it appear amongst the audience, killing a fair few in the process.

We live in interesting times.

Post: #10

Most of the world economy is slowing down right now. All those trillions of stimulus dollars are losing steam.



Americans are spending less and less, because they have less and less. Pretty soon they will just be paying for rent and food once inflation materalizes. Most people are slaves, have no chance, yet do not know it.

Post: #11

Isn't it Brazil whose tongue-in-cheek nickname has been "the country of the future" for 60 odd years?

Post: #12

(04-24-2015 09:32 PM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

(04-24-2015 08:26 PM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  

(04-24-2015 08:07 PM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  Brazil is a sideshow.

It's China that is going to cause the next global meltdown

Brazil, Australia, Canada, and Russia have benefited tremendously from China's manufacturing boom. They are the commmodities resource engine that feeds the growth. When China's growth slows then all those economies will be impacted in various ways.

Australia and Canada are both going through huge economic peaks they will simply come down to earth a bit especially Australia with its sky high bubble valuations in real estate.

Brazil will suffer the most economic damage

Brazil's trade stats with China:

Quote:Exports - partners:
China 19%, US 10.3%, Argentina 8.1%, Netherlands 7.2% (2013)

Imports - partners:
China 15.6%, US 15.1%, Argentina 6.9%, Germany 6.3%, Nigeria 4% (2013)

Brazil exports a shitload of commodities to China.

Russia cut a long term oil deal with China to ward off sanctions. It will probably be insulated even during a China slowdown. I think one of the terms is that even during a major economic slowdown China is still required to import a certain amount of oil to fulfill obligations under the deal.

Chinese debt is the elephant in the room.

An elephant that is being hidden by a government backed magician and that won't be seen fully until it's too late to see it appear amongst the audience, killing a fair few in the process.

We live in interesting times.

Their debt is huge and surely will need to be dealt with. Right now the Chinese stock market is on fire as the government is pushing people away from real estate into equities. That can't end well, but could go on for years I think while they slowly deal with their massive RE bubble.

Debt in the US, UK and almost everyone else in the West is at massive levels too though. When you include Medicare D and the other off balance sheet debt the US owes the debt ratio is astronomical. The UK's "growth" is all smoke and mirrors built up on foreign RE investment + the filthy lucre brought in from abroad. Canada and Australia's currencies got crushed by the commodity cycle bottoming out and going forward it's hard to see them growing as fast as they once did (but they are natural resource rich so will muddle through).

There is no way these faltering Western so-called "democracies" will ever be able to pay out the benefits they owe (unless it's in highly inflated, massively devalued currencies worth far less than what people originally put into the system for future benefits). Given the social upheavals going on it might be social changes that do them in effectively though.

I think dirt-poor Chinese and Russians will be able to weather the global storm better than your average Anglosphere SJW, French union worker or Spanish socialist. I think it will be a long slow decline though (already happening, look at unemployment in Europe and the lack of real job growth in the US).

Post: #13

China's labor force peaked in 2012. Their GDP per capita is still in the toilet and they have a real estate bubble that makes the 2008 one look small.

So when China starts to go into distress mode, do any of you think they'll call in their treasuries? That would make for some very...interesting times, to say the least.

Post: #14

CrashBangWallop, did you also see the BBC programme about a year ago on hidden Chinese debt? I think it was a Panorama, very good programme.

Basically the 2008 crash caused a massive dip in the purchases of Chinese exports, but they carried on manufacturing and now have a load of junk and lost profit (which is part associated to the Chinese state)

Post: #15

Quote:When are people going to figure out that the words "emerging economy" are an aspiration rather than a prediction?

I know what emerging economy means, i know China and Brazil HDI and GDP per capita are still bad compared with western countries. I didn't say the world changed suddenly. What i was asking is opinions about the new scenery, as most people have assumed that the BRICS growth would continue to be so high and the developed countries where doomed.

(04-24-2015 04:24 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  I would sure be happy to have a 6% unemployment rate...

The think is that i'm sure that most europeans wouldn't work for the wages that 70% of brazilians get. I know highly educated and connected and french and spanish tend to get management jobs with high wages in Latin America. But the young ones that came in exchanges and haven't graduated yet tend to bitch all day about how awful wages are compared to their home countries. If you people eliminate the minimal wage i'm sure you would get a better distribution of employment, but it will highly affect the purchasing power.