Post: #1

The Chinese, the Indians, and the Oil States are all salivating over Oil, Arable Land, and rare metals in Africa.

European and American multi-national corporations are also interested in a lot of the same things.

Assuming a war fought through Proxies, who are the players, and how does it play out?

WIA

Post: #2

It's already happening.

The Chinese were trying to get into Africa economically. The US are countering this through covert operations. Training "rebels" to fight governments that they want out of power, just like they are in the Middle East.

Post: #3

The Chinese are already buying their way into the economy through exclusive partnerships with African States and oil companies. They bring in their own workers to maintain know how and security over the sites. China has way too many other things to worry about besides oil, that it will only be a small part of what potentially pushes them over the edge. They have an age and population problem they can't resolve any time soon. In fact some military theorists suggest that the West might just need to outlast China's expansion and bellicosity for another 20 or so years until they start to have an insurmountable age problem and will have to reallocate resources they use on their military and economy to rake care of their rampant aging population.
Interesting and informative read on China. https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the-chi...12e8ef7edc

Quote:Beijing’s “one-child” policy has sharpened the trend. Today China has 16 retirees per 100 workers. Projections see that increasing to 64 retirees per 100 workers by 2050, resulting a much grayer population than in America.

In my opinion, the next World War will not be fought over oil or natural gas or precious metal, but water. The earth is only really capable.of sustaining so much life with the relatively small percentage of fresh water it has. Agriculture has done a good job supplying food for people to eat and sustain themselves on, but water is a much more essential resource and requirement. To that end, America in general (the southwest where I am not so much), and Canada are in a good position to be the last people standing when the water wars begin.

Post: #4

I don't think there will be a WW3; but if there is I believe it would be over the financial system; not Africa.

Post: #5

Africa is very tricky to do business in, and that is preventing a lot of development there.

Post: #6

I think Africans are tired of being proxies, and attempt to use African forces as proxies is only going to lead to ISIS style international terrorism.
Also, judging by previous African proxy conflicts, what the armed groups do is basically just sit in their base camp, talk big, and enjoy their foreign subsidies while pretending to be fighting. In other words, you are going to end up will these armed bands controlling the countryside with no effective means of extracting the very resources the fighting is about in the first place, and no effective means of achieving military victory (you can't exactly conquer a jungle. You can capture a city, but in the jungle/bush your enemy can always melt away, reform, and hit you somewhere you aren't looking). So over all, trying to fight for African resources is going to be a stupid idea (although with American foreign policy these days, you can't really rule out you yankees doing the stupid.)

It would be far more effective to bribe politicians to secure premium access to resources. You know, the way corporations have bought out the United States congress. Why try something as exceptionally risky as war when you can just export US plutocracy to Africa?

Post: #7

Yeah, bribery is the way to go in Africa.

I think WW III will either start with Iran with Russia getting involved, or in the western Pacific / South China Sea over the Spratlys / Paracels / Japan / Taiwan

Post: #8

China's and India are so far ahead of us.

BBC did a series on China in Africa a few years ago:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7086777.stm



The above image is from 2005 - here's one that goes up to 2011:


Notice how much investment has increased in places like Angola.
http://www.ibtimes.com/china-africas-new...ll-1556312

Post: #9

I have a friend who studied anthropology and speaks Chinese and has spent time on and off during the past few years in both Uganda and Tanzania researching this very topic. He posts (and sometimes writes) articles on this topic fairly regularly. A lot of it is pretty mainstream and not very controversial, but it's still interesting.

One of the things that seems to be working very much in Chinese favour in Africa is that both individuals and the countries involved seem to have more similar and "flexible" ways of doing business. Although there obviously is bribery from white people, most Westerners seem to rock up and freak out about corruption. Another couple of points are that the Chinese don't moralise or attach a whole lot of other conditions. If they want to loan some money for a highway, they just loan the money for a highway. They don't insist that there has to be a gay pride parade next year. Finally, the West seems to have spent decades pissing money away through NGOs and other huge white elephants. The Chinese go in and actually build something substantial -- a port, a highway, etc. Westerners appear to have their heads so far up their own arses with regard to Africa that it's not even funny how behind they are as a result.

Regarding the water wars, that's definitely a big one. A real hot spot is going to be south Asia. Most, if not all, of the major rivers there flow through multiple countries AND originate in China. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are not going to be happy campers if/when China diverts the flows.

I also agree that another likely hot spot is going to be the South China Sea, actually, anywhere east/southeast of China that has a maritime claim. The Chinese supposedly have claims even on Okinawa. China has really bad relationships with pretty much anyone and everyone near it. You know that things are fucked up when Vietnam is actually courting the U.S.

Post: #10

This proxy war has been going on since forever, just more players coming in now. Before it was european powers dividing african territories, then US came in, now China and other rising powers.

The worst of all is East Congo, a land just torn completely apart by people fighting over all sorts of minerals as the land there is the richest in the world. A weak government like the Congolese just has no chance against Western money combined with a population lacking in education, morals and financial means. I went there to visit and guys told me that pretty much anyone can come in and with 10000$ you can built your private militia and start doing whatever you want.

Post: #11

(09-30-2014 11:26 AM)Feisbook Control Wrote:  Although there obviously is bribery from white people, most Westerners seem to rock up and freak out about corruption.

Ze Germans

At Siemens, Bribery Was Just a Line Item

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/21/busine...d=all&_r=0

Pretty sure it's only Americans that clutch pearls @ bribery. The French, Italians, and German multi-nationals seem to do it as a matter of course, a cost of doing business.

WIA

Post: #12

It has been happening since WW2.

It is all imperialism under various guises.

We will never see wars like WW2 again, and the popular concept of 20th century WW3 is also a very unlikely scenario. Instead we have proxy wars all over the globe. They are much more practical economically.

Post: #13

(09-30-2014 01:12 PM)WestIndianArchie Wrote:  

(09-30-2014 11:26 AM)Feisbook Control Wrote:  Although there obviously is bribery from white people, most Westerners seem to rock up and freak out about corruption.

Ze Germans

At Siemens, Bribery Was Just a Line Item

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/21/busine...d=all&_r=0

Pretty sure it's only Americans that clutch pearls @ bribery. The French, Italians, and German multi-nationals seem to do it as a matter of course, a cost of doing business.

WIA

"

“I would never have thought I’d go to jail for my company,” Mr. Siekaczek said".

And he was right....2 years probation.

Post: #14

(09-30-2014 11:26 AM)Feisbook Control Wrote:  Regarding the water wars, that's definitely a big one. A real hot spot is going to be south Asia. Most, if not all, of the major rivers there flow through multiple countries AND originate in China. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are not going to be happy campers if/when China diverts the flows.

This is why China puts such high priority on the Tibetan plateau (Tibet) and the Mekong. These are important waterways that produce freshwater as well as feed through SE Asia. People think it's about the Dalai Llama and Richard Gere but it's not that at all. It's a covert resource war.

Post: #15

Quote:Chinese don't moralise or attach a whole lot of other conditions. If they want to loan some money for a highway, they just loan the money for a highway. They don't insist that there has to be a gay pride parade next year.

Couldn't agree more. This part is what is extremely annoying to me as far as USA (and to a lesser extent, European) foreign aid is concerned. They view themselves as global arbiters of some sort of universal religion and are very unscrupulous about enforcing it. This is true even when they actually end up severely harming the intended beneficiaries (for example, prostitutes in Thailand, Cambodia and Bangladesh - Maggie McNeill and Laura Augusting have a ton of articles about this).

http://www.lauraagustin.com/the-conceit-...aintliness
http://maggiemcneill.wordpress.com/2012/...farmville/
http://maggiemcneill.wordpress.com/2011/...denfreude/
http://maggiemcneill.wordpress.com/2014/...o-crumble/
http://maggiemcneill.wordpress.com/2010/...-part-one/