Post: #1

Interesting video about the changes technology will bring into the world and how it will render almost half of today's working population obsolete.

Post: #2

Yes the Post Work, Post Aging world will see its big strides in 20-30 years where everyone is going to have to reexamine how they view life.

I am glad this had 1M views already.

The intelligent people knowing this is coming know that society has to mentally prepare for this.

Old people won't want to think about it as easily because they were the last batch to work pointless jobs and age to death.

Post: #3

Who is going to buy anything if the 90% of the population has no job, and no money?

The majority will live like the Amish, toiling the land to not starve. Back to where we started...

Post: #4

(08-15-2014 12:04 PM)Glaucon Wrote:  Who is going to buy anything if the 90% of the population has no job, and no money?

The majority will live like the Amish, toiling the land to not starve. Back to where we started...

That's obviously why a change in perspective is needed. This forum in particular loves to tell people to pull themselves by their bootstraps/hates the welfare state but when no work is needed should we really expect the poor to work at all?

We might go a little crazy when we start feeling the effects of automation sadly. It would mean a new humanity for sure...

Post: #5

(08-15-2014 12:21 PM)Spikeball Wrote:  That's obviously why a change in perspective is needed. This forum in particular loves to tell people to pull themselves by their bootstraps/hates the welfare state but when no work is needed should we really expect the poor to work at all?

We might go a little crazy when we start feeling the effects of automation sadly. It would mean a new humanity for sure...

There will be no new humanity. I see no sign in the history of the last 10 000 years that humans are capable to change at all. The same mad cycle again and again.

Post: #6

Excellent video, gents, start getting deep into the technology side of automation.

This IS and WILL be a serious problem for all.

The video is right automation is inevitable, unions can always try to push back, but the majority of Americans will want convenience and efficiency.

This is a very in depth and philosophical them to study and adapt too.

Post: #7

That kinda goes along with the end of days doomsday theory. Not trying to doom and gloom here but there but the theory that every age has a time frame (bronze, gilded, industrial). But each new one is about half the time of the old one. So we are in the information age which will be half the time of the communication age which we just got out of. I'm guessing the next will be the A.I., which will be half the time span currently.

Essentially you will have it keep dividing until it becomes virtually nothing and like Glaucon said, we will go back to toiling soil like our ancestors. It's all cyclical gents.

Post: #8

I think a big reason an automated and less human service friendly economy (chat with a barista etc..) will be that the vast majority of people's real wages and purchasing power will drop as more jobs are automated forcing them to choose to use less expensive automated services over more expensive "customer experience" ones.

It will snowball as exponential advances in technology add more snow.

Post: #9

It's exactly stories like these that illustrate the continuing importance of bringing in millions of uneducated Mexican and central American immigrants every year. When you combine stagnant wages, a high unemployment rate, and the coming robotization of large swathes of the economy, it becomes glaringly obvious that the US cannot prosper without importing ever more peons to replenish the growing numbers of the underemployed and unemployable.

^^Wait, did that make sense? I hope so, all I really did was combine the conventional wisdom regarding the economy, technology, and immigration prevalent throughout the mainstream media into one paragraph. Surely that shit must be consistent? Oh, I guess not...

Post: #10

(08-15-2014 02:06 PM)rekruler Wrote:  It's exactly stories like these that illustrate the continuing importance of bringing in millions of uneducated Mexican and central American immigrants every year. When you combine stagnant wages, a high unemployment rate, and the coming robotization of large swathes of the economy, it becomes glaringly obvious that the US cannot prosper without importing ever more peons to replenish the growing numbers of the underemployed and unemployable.

^^Wait, did that make sense? I hope so, all I really did was combine the conventional wisdom regarding the economy, technology, and immigration prevalent throughout the mainstream media into one paragraph. Surely that shit must be consistent? Oh, I guess not...

Post: #11

Interesting video. I am not sure what will happen to humans.

Will we merge with machines/computers to maintain our relevance? ...or will most people have to live on the dole?

Will genetic engineering allow for super-smart humans to be reproduced, thus saving ourselves from technological unemployment?

Hard to say. Most predictions about the future are wrong since, like the saying goes, "Predictions are hard, especially about the future."

Post: #12

I predict:
the new Luddites will commit soft sabotage on a huge scale, both to make themselves more useful in fixing the damage and also in a spirit of revenge, thus increasing the need for people on the ground, and in other areas, individuals and even businesses will avoid these completely.
It's not that long since rioters smashed the equipment that put weavers out of work. It will take years before the majority are "OK" with having no work. Not needing to work because every need can be met mechanically is one thing, not being able to because there are a hundred or a thousand viable workers for one opening is another. Most people wouldn't work if they knew life would be bearable, but nobody will willingly choose to be made useless.
It's probably going to cost even more money to keep those jobless distracted with free drugs, TV and similar than it would to find make-work jobs for them in marginally useful industries

Post: #13

Has anyone else read The Culture series by Iain M Banks? A post-scarcity, anarchist utopia would be nice.

Post: #14

Life in such a world would be a terrible ordeal for all but the most shiftless of people. What keeps man going is the belief that he can better his situation relative to others by industriousness, boldness, or what have you. Yes, most men's dreams never come true, but at least they have the potential to.

By making a large portion of mankind virtually obsolete in the labor market, you remove that initial toe-hold at the bottom of the mountain of success that can be used to begin the journey upwards. Who would want to be a member of the third (half? three quarters?) of the population that is dependent entirely on the government, and receives exactly the same handouts as every other member in that demographic, with no possibility of ever achieving anything by virtue of your own efforts? You may as well kill yourself, frankly.

Post: #15

Wow it shocked me how many have your work and employment ingrained as what defines you.

How about your presence, joy, creativity, free time?

If you can't say to yourself "I'm Steve, I'm a well-educated accountant with a nice lifestyle that is striving to be partner at my firm. Hear me roar." You are now useless?

Most people's jobs are a complete joke when you look at the big picture outside of scientific researchers and artists.

Drone talk I tell you. Drone talk.

This is why people need to be hit with this early so they can let that part of their identity be dragged into the woods and shot so it doesn't cause problems.

Post: #16

(08-15-2014 04:39 PM)Travesty444 Wrote:  Wow it shocked me how many have your work and employment ingrained as what defines you.

How about your presence, joy, creativity, free time?

If you can't say to yourself "I'm Steve, I'm a well-educated accountant with a nice lifestyle that is striving to be partner at my firm. Hear me roar." You are now useless?

Most people's jobs are a complete joke when you look at the big picture outside of scientific researchers and artists.

Drone talk I tell you. Drone talk.

This is why people need to be hit with this early so they can let that part of their identity be dragged into the woods and shot so it doesn't cause problems.

The people that live to work will be the hardest hit. Me, I look forward to a life of leisure where I can do anything I want.

Post: #17

(08-15-2014 03:46 PM)Tengen Wrote:  Has anyone else read The Culture series by Iain M Banks? A post-scarcity, anarchist utopia would be nice.

Yeah, I liked those. They made me wonder what we'd do if we had nothing to occupy ourselves. Do we need work to give life meaning, or just to make us value our down-time more?
I remember an article about Bora Bora, saying about 10-15% of locals didn't have jobs, but could fish and pick fruit, sleep outdoors, and not really feel the ill-effects of unemployment, and the Culture novels always made me think of that.

Post: #18

So;

'Bang: Short Circuit I' ?

Post: #19

I always thought Star Trek would have been better if they'd shown the Federation as less of a utopia and more like the most probable outcome of a post scarcity society, where wealth is just replaced by credentialism or some other status seeking behavior. Starfleet is supposed to be like the top 1% of academic acheivers, so giving them a condescending arrogant attitude towards the Earthling townies would have worked well.

Post: #20

(08-15-2014 04:59 PM)BortimusPrime Wrote:  I always thought Star Trek would have been better if they'd shown the Federation as less of a utopia and more like the most probable outcome of a post scarcity society, where wealth is just replaced by credentialism or some other status seeking behavior. Starfleet is supposed to be like the top 1% of academic acheivers, so giving them a condescending arrogant attitude towards the Earthling townies would have worked well.

Deep Space 9 is kind of like that. We as humans need to develop space travel and start colonizing other planets. Stagnation and decadence does strange things to people.

Post: #21

I only see three ways for this to play out:

1) Following societal breakdown and collapse, a neo-Luddite movement emerges which limits the use of technology as direct labor replacement. I rate this as extremely unlikely, because technology is too tempting, and people are always going to seek the easy way to do things. If you don't, someone else will and will beat you out. Once the genie is out of the bottle, there's no putting it back in. You can't un-invent something.

2) Governments gradually implement a universal income which divorces purchasing power from wages. This would allow citizens to purchase the goods and services the economy produces without needing to find employment. Basically, the majority of society ends up on the dole. I rate this as unlikely. The idea could work in theory, but there are a lot of practical problems that would go along with implementing it. While theoretically possible, it is essentially utopian in my view.

3) Massive population reduction on the order of 75-90%. I rate this as likely. Once technology reaches a certain point most of humanity becomes surplus. Elites will have no need for most people. The only question is how this liquidation will occur. Nuclear war, engineered bio weapons, mass starvation are all candidates. The most humane approach would be to sterilize people through some kind of painless procedure in exchange for government benefits. The population reduction could then be accomplished gradually over a few generations.

Post: #22

In a post-(material) scarcity society, people will compete for status. In theory, post-scarcity would make material objects non-excludable (non-paying customers cannot be excluded from it) and non-rivalrous (zero cost to providing the good to a marginal individual). However, status remains a private good (both excludable and rivalrous).

For further reading, check out The Economics of Social Status.

Post-scarcity eliminates the need for any work that can be done by computers/robots. Which is basically everything, except work that requires creativity. Those who possess creativity will reign supreme in a post-scarcity society.

Edit: Or the below happens.

Quote:3) Massive population reduction on the order of 75-90%. I rate this as likely. Once technology reaches a certain point most of humanity becomes surplus. Elites will have no need for most people. The only question is how this liquidation will occur. Nuclear war, engineered bio weapons, mass starvation are all candidates. The most humane approach would be to sterilize people through some kind of painless procedure in exchange for government benefits. The population reduction could then be accomplished gradually over a few generations.

Post: #23

(08-15-2014 05:06 PM)frenchie Wrote:  

(08-15-2014 04:59 PM)BortimusPrime Wrote:  I always thought Star Trek would have been better if they'd shown the Federation as less of a utopia and more like the most probable outcome of a post scarcity society, where wealth is just replaced by credentialism or some other status seeking behavior. Starfleet is supposed to be like the top 1% of academic acheivers, so giving them a condescending arrogant attitude towards the Earthling townies would have worked well.

Deep Space 9 is kind of like that. We as humans need to develop space travel and start colonizing other planets. Stagnation and decadence does strange things to people.

That's why DS9 was my favorite Star Trek series. Roddenberry had to croak before the writers could get away with turning his commie utopia into a more realistic civilization of smug limousine liberals that were contrasted with the ultra-libertarian Ferengi culture.

Post: #24

All I have to say is that I sincerely hope that when the day comes, I am gone from this planet. I see this almost as a science fiction movie in which the machines take over the world. I don't know how the people that develop this stuff don't see that in making humans obsolete we ruin everything that has ever been put in place, all creativity, all of history. Its very sobering thinking about this.

I see this as the collapse of our civilization, just as all great empires fell, soon we will too.

Post: #25

(08-15-2014 05:07 PM)scorpion Wrote:  I only see three ways for this to play out:

1) Following societal breakdown and collapse, a neo-Luddite movement emerges which limits the use of technology as direct labor replacement. I rate this as extremely unlikely, because technology is too tempting, and people are always going to seek the easy way to do things. If you don't, someone else will and will beat you out. Once the genie is out of the bottle, there's no putting it back in. You can't un-invent something.

2) Governments gradually implement a universal income which divorces purchasing power from wages. This would allow citizens to purchase the goods and services the economy produces without needing to find employment. Basically, the majority of society ends up on the dole. I rate this as unlikely. The idea could work in theory, but there are a lot of practical problems that would go along with implementing it. While theoretically possible, it is essentially utopian in my view.

3) Massive population reduction on the order of 75-90%. I rate this as likely. Once technology reaches a certain point most of humanity becomes surplus. Elites will have no need for most people. The only question is how this liquidation will occur. Nuclear war, engineered bio weapons, mass starvation are all candidates. The most humane approach would be to sterilize people through some kind of painless procedure in exchange for government benefits. The population reduction could then be accomplished gradually over a few generations.

1. Unlikely except in the event of some kind of breakdown in the organizational capacity to maintain advanced technology. The Roman Empire fell apart because they started giving out welfare and using lead instead of gold in their money, and once they were gone the infrastructure (roads/aqueducts) fell into disrepair. Still, the Dark Ages didn't last forever.

2. This is what we're doing now with food stamps. I go to the grocery store and everyone single person other than me is using their Oregon Trail Card for free food. Of course they're obese, and what are they buying? Snacky cakes and cheesy poofs of course. Cooking their own food would burn precious calories.

3. This seems the most unlikely to be honest. Wars only seem to cause people to breed faster, and nothing short of a North Korean style dictatorship would be able to organize any sort of mass sterilization program successfully. We've got an economic sanction against breeding in the US by convincing middle class people that they can't afford kids, but this doesn't stop the lower classes or immigrants from procreating like crazy.

My prediction is that natural selection will take it's course. It's practically a law of physics, although people frequently misunderstand the definition of "survival of the fittest". In the environment we've created, the fittest consist of mouth-breathing overweight imbeciles that consume as much free food as you can give them and shit out offspring faster than an octopus. With machines available to wipe their bottoms for them so they don't die of any ass infections, they'll outbreed the humans with brains to the point that in the far future any aliens that arrive will wonder why such an advanced machine civilization wastes so much of its time herding around all the 400 lb hairless simian land-cows into which humanity will have evolved.