Post: #1

The online fuck market in the US is an oligopoly. One company owns the lion's share of it. From Fortune, February 2013:

• Right now, Barry Diller’s IAC IACI -0.48% controls 41% of the market, thanks in large part to its properties Match.com and OkCupid.com. eHarmony is next, with 23.5% of the market. In third place is Zoosk at 7.7%, followed by Spark Networks (owner of JDate, Christian Mingle, LDS Mingle, and more) at 4.9%.
  
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Since then, IAC has acquired a majority stake in Tinder, and news just broke that IAC is also acquiring HowAboutWe. And HowAboutWe had acquired Nerve.com dating earlier this year.

So IAC owns Tinder, OKCupid, Match.com & HowAboutWe. Looks like Grouper is failing.

Who does that leave? Plenty Of Fish, Jdate, CoffeeMeetsBagel... not much.

I'm guessing Coffee Meets Bagel will be acquired within a year or two as well. I thought their execution was great, except that the form factor seemed to produce stratospheric flaking for me personally, worse than I'd seen in any other pickup channel. I'd guess it's because of the constant flow of new matches.

When you consider that girls on eHarmony and the Christian sites are not so DTF, plus many report that POF's talent is lacking, it's clear that IAC owns the vast majority of the online fuck market.

Does it matter that IAC owns the lion's share of the online fuck market? How would things be different if it weren't so oligopolistic?

Post: #2

Girls are only going to go on to the socially acceptable sites.

If there were a lot of sites, I think it wouldn't be good.

Post: #3

Does anyone here own shares?

Post: #4

I don't think the average consumer of these products care who owns the sites as long as they are getting something they perceive as valuable or does what it is supposed to do in their eyes.

The only thing would be affecting your fuck market is if somehow they had consistent programming that intentionally keeps chicks from showing up on your searches, etc.

If anything large conglomerate would heavily advertise and thus doing one of the most important things needed out of these sites: consolidating people into one location. Since the value of the site mainly rests on it having a large group of active people.

One final thought is, yes some innovative company could come along with incredible matchmaking software that could be a game changer. Maybe that gets denied for a while. But if it is so amazing then one of these conglomerates would probably try to acquire it and put its full backing behind it.

I bet the reason IAC owns so many is to cannibalize from itself and prevent others from taking customers away. Customers think they are switching to a better site but Barry still has them as a customer.

Post: #5

(06-28-2014 01:33 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  The only thing would be affecting your fuck market is if somehow they had consistent programming that intentionally keeps chicks from showing up on your searches, etc.

If anything large conglomerate would heavily advertise and thus doing one of the most important things needed out of these sites: consolidating people into one location. Since the value of the site mainly rests on it having a large group of active people.

One final thought is, yes some innovative company could come along with incredible matchmaking software that could be a game changer. Maybe that gets denied for a while. But if it is so amazing then one of these conglomerates would probably try to acquire it and put its full backing behind it.

I bet the reason IAC owns so many is to cannibalize from itself and prevent others from taking customers away. Customers think they are switching to a better site but Barry still has them as a customer.

Yeah the dynamics of the industry favor consolidation - you have to spend a ton of revenue on advertising to keep consumers coming, because the churn rate, people coming and going, is so high. Plus, you need a concentration of people in a certain geographical area for it to work. The downside is that if there is a new innovative model, it will be much harder for it to succeed and get a foothold in the market.

That innovative company is really every company IAC has bought - OKC, Tinder, HowAboutWe, etc.

Post: #6

I think if it is truly innovative and the word gets out it can go viral. But it has to be exceptional, or at least relatively exceptional. But people lie on profiles so that dilutes any sort of innovation in profiles/questionnaires.

Maybe they can match by smell. There is some weird stuff I heard about people and smells, each person emits different pheromones.

But I think tinder has locked down what truly matters. Though I haven't used it. I heard it is just looks. Instant reaction would I fuck or not fuck.

Post: #7

IAC has done very well by acquiring and seeking to dominate this industry. Online dating is a secure growth business, and monetizes well. Smart move on their part to put so many eggs in one predictable basket. When was the last time you used Ask.com?

Think of IAC as a niche publisher. Like a Playboy, Rolling Stone, or a News Corp, who publish several brands all around the same topic or who share a common theme. As their other weaker businesses like About.com, Ask.com and others plateau in growth, online dating will just continue to grow and grow year in, year out.

Should we worry? Only if they combine and use the data across every platform. Which would probably just end up making an even better product anyway. What sort of conspiracy would come of this?

Post: #8

Conspiracy? They interface with other companies and build "real identity" profiles.

Another craigslist/Elliot Rodgers case, and you get NSA level creep detection across various services so as to protect women from online predators.

WIA

Post: #9

(06-28-2014 03:00 PM)WestIndianArchie Wrote:  Conspiracy? They interface with other companies and build "real identity" profiles.

Another craigslist/Elliot Rodgers case, and you get NSA level creep detection across various services so as to protect women from online predators.

Traffic would plummet, Daygame gets much harder.

Post: #10

Inernet favors concentration, night clubs and streets will be local venues for Game.

No surprise there - who wants to search a site with way less choices?

Post: #11

Start a dating site, sell it to IAC in 18 months.

I would go with a mashup of Tinder with Foursquare. You get a ping everytime a match walks in wherever you are.