(02-28-2015 10:07 AM)micha Wrote:  On a more serious note:

I came across that quote when I looked up Nemtsov on Wikipedia.

„Putin begun the war with Ukraine because he was scared of a repetition of the Maidan in Moscow, to show that a revolution is ended with chaos and that people cannot remove authorities in such a way.“

– Boris Nemtsov: 28. Juni 2014


For me, that sheds a whole different light on the situation and would actually answer all the questions about an "endgame" and such. Maybe there isn't one.

Everyone and their dog in that part of the world, knows that even if Putin wasn't around, you would still have dissidents in the East. Yankovich was Russian friendly and the crowds who overthrown him and implemented a new government, were very much the opposite.

For the conflict that unfolded, it is pretty much International Relations 101. Russia's interest and the Wests interest differ when it comes to East Ukraine thus leading to this clash.

There was no way that Russia was going to let the newly rag and bone Kiev government have control of Crimea. Which contains a majority Russian population (Citizens take in mind) along with Russia's major navy base hub. On the same level having Ukraine on the side of the EU even if it is just for ideological reasons. lets face it economically the country just won't be able to measure up. However this works as a big plus.

A well proclaimed New York theorist in the 1990s actually predicted this conflict on the lines of West Ukraine and East Ukraine extending to Russia are two differing civilisations. Being on the fault line, places such as Odessa, Donetsk Kharkov will see large scale conflict although it won't be as substantial as what you saw in the Balkans during the 90s.

(03-07-2015 09:51 AM)Constitution45 Wrote:  A well proclaimed New York theorist in the 1990s actually predicted this conflict on the lines of West Ukraine and East Ukraine extending to Russia are two differing civilisations. Being on the fault line, places such as Odessa, Donetsk Kharkov will see large scale conflict although it won't be as substantial as what you saw in the Balkans during the 90s.

Who's the theorist?

I'd like to see his writing.

(03-07-2015 11:18 AM)Caveman Wrote:  

(03-07-2015 09:51 AM)Constitution45 Wrote:  A well proclaimed New York theorist in the 1990s actually predicted this conflict on the lines of West Ukraine and East Ukraine extending to Russia are two differing civilisations. Being on the fault line, places such as Odessa, Donetsk Kharkov will see large scale conflict although it won't be as substantial as what you saw in the Balkans during the 90s.

Who's the theorist?

I'd like to see his writing.

I suspect he is referring to Samuel P. Huntington.

IMF bailout March 11th. So March 12th Ukraine starts escalating hostilities?

Would be great if Russia calls in the $3 billion bond March 12th. Then at the end of March demand full payment of the $2.5 billion in gas debt with a new gas deal package.

Nilla, they can't call the 3B loan until the end of June at the earliest. And the gas debt is pending the arbitrage case which won't make a ruling until 2016 or even later.

Rover, not sure the nitty-gritty on the parameters of how to deal with that gas debt, but the bottom line for me is I hope Russia squeezes Ukraine a little more on that issue at the end of the month. Just like I hope they get more vocal and put pressure on France about the Mistrals. Russia under Putin is great at being reactionary and doing as little as possible to advance its interests, but it would be nice to keep the West on its toes and initiate some pushes instead of just pushing back.

About the $3 billion loan... can you cite your source because I'm under the firm impression Russia can call that in at any time due to Ukraine's debt being over 60% of GDP.

This article is too long to quote here, but I strongly urge all of you to read it as it gives some juicy info on the dynamics of Donbass politicians, Strelkov, and Russian internal politics. http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/03/the-...an-or.html

(03-08-2015 12:27 PM)Big Nilla Wrote:  Rover, not sure the nitty-gritty on the parameters of how to deal with that gas debt, but the bottom line for me is I hope Russia squeezes Ukraine a little more on that issue at the end of the month. Just like I hope they get more vocal and put pressure on France about the Mistrals. Russia under Putin is great at being reactionary and doing as little as possible to advance its interests, but it would be nice to keep the West on its toes and initiate some pushes instead of just pushing back.

About the $3 billion loan... can you cite your source because I'm under the firm impression Russia can call that in at any time due to Ukraine's debt being over 60% of GDP.

About the $3B loan - there is a provision about 60% GDP ratio. But it can only be invoked after the release of the official UA economic report for 2014 which is not due until the end of March. And then there is something else holding it for another 3 months, I don't remember now. I think they'll just wait until end of 2015 when it expires anyway. Putin won't apply any serious economic pressure on Ukraine to keep up with his "we are here to help our Ukrainian brothers while they are having their internal conflict" narrative. The time is fully on the Kremlin's side, they just need to drag it on and avoid serious fuckups and provocations that Washington will use to escalate it. Ukraine collapse is inevitable, it's only a question if it'll be somewhat managed or catastrophic and whether it'll drag the rest of Europe down with it.

I'd like to see a more active pushback as well, but 1. too many of Russian elite have serious assets on the West and no doubt are threatened with the complete freeze/confiscation if they don't toe the USA line, so there is basically active sabotage on their part and it takes time to correct this 2. Putin may simply not have enough geopolitical space for active pushback moves right now, at least not until he drives some wedge between EU and USA. Russians are good in passive defence and letting the opponent think they are getting somewhere until the right time comes for counterpunch. Just like Napoleon thought he conquered Russia just because he got to Moscow and burned it.

Female rebel fighter spits red pill

Start at 4:41

At about 4:00, she used to have a pet store!

Everything is starting to come together.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31796226

Quote:"Vladimir Putin has admitted for the first time that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum on self-determination.

Crimea was formally absorbed into Russia on 18 March, to international condemnation, after unidentified gunmen took over the peninsula.

Mr Putin said on TV he had ordered work on "returning Crimea" to begin at an all-night meeting on 22 February.

The meeting was called after Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted.

Speaking last year, Mr Putin had said only that he took his final decision about Crimea after secret, undated opinion polls showed 80% of Crimeans favoured joining Russia."

Rebels have some cute 19 year olds fighting for them:

Stratfor offering up their overt Russian military options in Ukraine. Mostly worthless, imo, in regards to the amount of troops Russia would need to capture the land. Plus they seem to not take into account Russia striking military targets all over Ukraine, not just in the areas they're capturing.
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/gaming...-offensive

Great read... insights into the American 'Stans strategy against Russia.
http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/03/10/4290

I think part of the reason Russia is soft-stepping in Ukraine is because if it commits its military there, the US could flare up stuff in Nagorno and the 'Stans.

Interesting podcast where Peter Hitchens deconstructs a lot of the pro-west mainstream media views on the whole Ukraine crisis:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/sebastian-p...ukip-want/

I didn't know that any future EU member has to de jure become a member of NATO going forward.

Are the people in Ukrainian territory close to the conflict (Slovyansk) becoming more pro Russian, are they just carefully selected by the interviewer or have they always been pro Russian?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TxT7xSW2xZ4

Great analysis on the whole US aggression against Russia situation using Ukraine as bait to start other problems for Russia.
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/2015/02/19/3646

Putin hasn't made a public appearance in 8 days. Never happened before for this long. Missed some important meetings. A lot of crazy theories going on.
1. Died
2. Recovering from surgery or is sick
3. coup
4. Girlfriend having a baby in Switzerland (ha)

Crazy times, but none of those seem likely. Due to the timing and what is happening, if I had to guess I say he has some important housecleaning he's doing. There seems to be a problem between the FSB and Kadyrov with the FSB pinning the Nemtsov killing on a guy Kadyrov vouches for. Putin gave Kayrov some sort of medal right after that to show his support.

(03-13-2015 06:50 PM)Big Nilla Wrote:  Putin hasn't made a public appearance in 8 days. Never happened before for this long. Missed some important meetings. A lot of crazy theories going on.
1. Died
2. Recovering from surgery or is sick
3. coup
4. Girlfriend having a baby in Switzerland (ha)

Crazy times, but none of those seem likely. Due to the timing and what is happening, if I had to guess I say he has some important housecleaning he's doing. There seems to be a problem between the FSB and Kadyrov with the FSB pinning the Nemtsov killing on a guy Kadyrov vouches for. Putin gave Kayrov some sort of medal right after that to show his support.

Let the countdown and the betting begin.

I kind of like the number 12... so that will be my bet. In other words, I will say that he appears on day 12.... ha hahahaha But I am close to 100% speculating without much of a clue regarding how I came up with that quasi-random number.

He is in nuclear shelter.

The word over at 8chan is that putin is attending the lenten monastic yearly retreat; western media knows this and creates a hysteria about it now that he's public enemy number 1.

I'm not sure if that's what's going on, but I do recall seeing documentaries of Putin visiting the monastery on some island in Russia (Valaam monastery I think if bing is correct) for weeks; supposedly he is very religious. Could be for political points or whatever, but that's the narrative russia puts forward.

"When the west backed the illegal regime change in Ukraine last year it was in the name of a “civilizational choice.” This is a very interesting phrase. The west’s post-modern “civilizational choice” really has nothing to do with values. Actually it is a practice that demands hegemony and submission from any country that resists. Russia
resists. The west under Washington’s soft dictatorial leadership conceals its hegemonic mission under the guise of democracy, gender rights, gay rights, and a equivocal definition of universal applied rights. This is a post-modern approach to foreign policy – and it is intentional.

Russia strongly objects to this approach and should so. There are many obvious reasons for this..."

http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/03/15/...m=facebook

George Friedman gives some interesting thoughts on geopolitics.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/517426.html

Quote: Kadyrov, FSB at War After Nemtsov Death

The Chechen connection to the assassination of Russia's opposition leader Boris Nemtsov is pushing Russia's spooks into political battles they would rather avoid.

The FSB appears to have uncovered signs of a conspiracy that implicates Chechen leaders very close to Ramzan Kadyrov. According to Novaya Gazeta, investigators have found a sustained effort by elements in the Chechen security forces to track and target not only Nemtsov, but several prominent opposition figures and public personalities critical of President Vladimir Putin.

This raises the prospect of Kadyrov's direct involvement as part of his strategy to keep himself indispensable to the Kremlin as a force of violence against the regime's opponents.

If Kadyrov were indeed freelancing into political assassinations in Moscow and were allowed to walk away unpunished, he would be taking Putin and the entire Russian leadership hostage, which might be precisely his plan. This would be a threat to the Russian state that the FSB would be legally obligated to fight.

Kadyrov has been raising his political profile and sought to position himself as Putin's most trusted lieutenant and even a peer ruler, aiming at a higher federal role. His brazen forays into Russia's foreign and security policy, and his attempts to speak on behalf of all Russia's Muslims, unnerved many in Moscow.

His political alliance with Putin's aide Vladislav Surkov, who owes his return to the Kremlin to Kadyrov's intervention, has created a lock over Putin's succession plans, where any future Russian president should be acceptable to Kadyrov. His willingness to play a central role in physically suppressing anti-Putin opposition opened a horrifying prospect of a sectarian war in Russia.

The stakes are huge. Full investigation and arrests of co-conspirators risk destabilization in Chechnya escalating into war. A decision to freeze the investigation in its tracks and cover up would be extremely demoralizing for Russia's security services and essentially signal the disintegration of Putin's power vertical. It would expose Putin's humiliating dependency on Kadyrov, raising the risks of his seizure of power in Moscow.

For the spooks this creates a loyalty test between the Russian state and its leader who may have been taken hostage by Russia's enemies. There must be rich irony in the fact that the FSB, Russia's ruthless security service, is now acting as the last best hope for Russia's democracy.

Detailed analysis of how the US tried to use the Nemtsov murder for a Moscow Maidan. Interesting stuff.