Just bought ARCP at 8.50.

I mainly bought it because there is blood running in the streeets and I don't see a catastrophic failure of their assets (blue-chip by real estate standards)

I just don't see how a REIT that is rented out on a NNN basis will go belly-up especially with mostly large anchor tenants. FBI probe and DOJ settlement will be appropriate for a too-big to fail commercial entity.

11% distribution yield is pretty juicy as well.

Do your own due diligence.

(11-10-2014 01:29 PM)Stun Wrote:  As usual, when Nemencine speaks, folks should listen. CNBC just announced that an Oklahoma judge ruled against Mr Hamm today, ordering him to provide his wife with $900M+ with $322.7M to be paid by the end of 2014. Hamm is most likely going to have to sell a lot of stock to raise that much capital so rapidly.

Thanks for the compliment, sir. I am most honoured.

A several weeks ago, Cramer was recommending CLR as buy! buy! buy! Can you fracking believe that?!? That cramer lad is a bloody clown. The CEO of CLR probably had him toot his stock.

It is quite stunning that a man will lose almost $1billion dollars to a woman that never worked a day for it.... That is going to hurt. Hey, at least, it is still better than losing $8billion(the originally expected amount).... He has to give her $322million in less than 2 months? damn! Perhaps, he will just transfer over some of his stock certificate to her....instead of selling the stock... because selling the stock will hit the PPS of CLR hard.

The CLR descent from $80 to $54 means -32% depreciation in value... giving the number of outstanding shares($368.79M)... that means the stock already lost $9.58 billion in market capitalization to begin with... that is before the divorce settlement news of almost $1billion is even announced...

Which could mean that the -32% descent already priced in the $1billion divorce score ahead of time... therefore, at these levels CLR may not be a sell anymore... In fact, i closed out all my shorts position today: buy on the rumour, sell on the news...(well, in this case: sell on the rumour, buy on the news... since i am short selling...) . The loss in the market capitalization of the stock( -$9.58 billion) due to the stock falling from $80 to $54, already exceeds the +$900 million divorce settlement. It is as if the market anticipates the damages, and did it ahead of time.... Not just that, the amount of damage that the market did($9.58 billion) is close to the originally expected divorce settlement of $8billion; and far exceeds the actual divorce settlement of roughly $1billion. This roughly $1billion divorce settlement announced today could be priced into the stock already... if this is the case, the likelihood of the stock cascading further downward is very low. We might have reached a bottom in CLR.

In addition, the recent CLR earnings report that came out 5 days ago, was not bad at all. The company did well. When you combine these two factors: good earnings + market capitalization depreciation that already exceeds the amount of divorce settlement... i don't quite see a good rationale for a continuing short position in the stock anymore... this makes me contrarian on CLR...

As such, i liquidated all my short positions into that news. I am completely out of the CLR stock.

regards,

Nemencine

Congrats, well played Nemencine! It seems like the 8B loss in value is pretty harsh comparing with 1B Mr. Hamm needs to pay to his ex-wife, but at least for now, market did not counteract by increasing the price...

I read this thread by samsamsam about "World Chocolate Deficit - May lead to fatties rioting".... while it is fun making jokes about fatties and whatnot; what really hit me is the potential money making opportunity that this may present in the future.

What do i mean?

If there is truly going to be an increasing scarcity of cocoa... this will drive up the price of cocoa on the commodities futures index; also, that means those companies making candies and chocolate, will pass on the price to consumers.

Cocoa scarcity will mean, candy/chocolate companies that are well-capitalized will out-muscle their weaker competitors; i will expect merger and acquisition shooting up in this sector of the agribusiness. Since all these companies will be competing for a dwindling resource(cocoa), the strongest companies will either absorb or starved the weaker companies out of existence. Which means that the stronger companies will gobble up more market share, pass on the cost to their consumers, and use cocoa scarcity + increasing demand for candies and chocolate, to help drive up their stock prices.......

I sincerely doubt their profit margin will be squeezed... certainly not with these gourmandizing creatures around:



On a more serious note: cocoa is used for multiple other things, besides candies for the likes of Lindy West....

The ETF for cocoa, that follows the commodity futures price is: NIB. Which is an iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa SubTR ETN [i do not like the 'CHOC' etf at all]

A couple of candy/chocolate stocks are: TR (Toostie rolls), HSY(hershey), RMCF(rocky mountain chocolate factory), LNCE(snyder's-lance).

I AM NOT BUYING ANY OF THESE STOCKS NOW, SIMPLY BECAUSE: The cocoa scarcity news may have been over-hyped. But, i will definitely keep my eyes on cocoa news going forward.... One major thing i will look for is M & A activity in the candy/chocolate agribusiness sector... i will also look for massive consolidation and return of bullishness in the cocoa futures chart.

Because an unrelenting scarcity of cocoa = long term, multi-year upswings for cocoa future prices... right now though, NIB is diving downward after the euphoric upswing from Ebola scare...

For me, this is not yet the time to buy... but to wait and watch.... watch and wait... to see if (1) any of the stories about cocoa scarcity is actually true, (2) look for other indicators, such as bullish price actions in the cocoa future chart, (3) if there is M & A activities in the cocoa agribusiness sector.

regards,

Nemencine

p.s. As an aside, because i don't want to create an entirely new post about this: For those interested in special situation investments like spinoffs. Here is a good site: http://www.stockspinoffs.com/upcoming-spinoffs/ and the morningstar website: http://www.morningstar.com/topics/spin-offs.htm

52 week low- BHP Billiton (BHP or BBL)

- Largest mining company in the world
- Massive increases in productivity over the last 5 years
- Long-lived core assets of 50+ years
- Low Cost Producer for most mining products (close 2nd for iron)
- Visionary Management
- 10x P/E (almost meaningless in cyclicals, but still 10% ROI at these #s). 4.5% dividend, 2 P/S, gross margin ~36%, net margin 18%.
- Company themes- %20 IRR benchmark for mining investments, 20% productivity gains p.a., low debt, maximal value return to shareholders, well diversified natural resource upstream portfolio.

Im pulling the trigger on this as soon as I shift out of my stock BKE post-black friday/early december and continuing to buy every month until it corrects.

Hopefully the price keeps dropping!

Its def going into the treasury chest and being locked up for 5-10 years.

Pro-tip: buy BBL for your IRA and get no tax with-holding for dividends!

@Nemecince- they also are a planning a spin-off. I know thats your forte. Should come out sometime mid 2015.

Up around 10% so far on ARCP. I think it has legs to run until 14. If the scandal blows over and the earnings improve, it can run up to 20.

Yo, nemencine!

When is the fall of the west coming along with the fall of the dollar?

I hear it's coming soon!

Better buy some gold bro!

(11-28-2014 02:56 AM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  Yo, nemencine!

When is the fall of the west coming along with the fall of the dollar?

I hear it's coming soon!

Better buy some gold bro!

By the looks of the hammering commodities have been getting lately I would say it's a leading indicator of a stronger dollar.

There have been times in the past a bludgeoning of commodities would mean a beating of equities were on the near horizon.

But who knows? If I did, I'd be rich.

The collapsing crude oil price is the canary in the mine.

The same thing happened before 2007. Things will speed up next year. I would not buy anything big in the next 5 year.

(11-30-2014 02:20 AM)Glaucon Wrote:  The collapsing crude oil price is the canary in the mine.

The same thing happened before 2007. Things will speed up next year. I would not buy anything big in the next 5 year.

I bought more of an oil major, even though I was down. Oil will be back soon enough, will a 30% or more appreciation in the price of that stock.

I am holding off on more oil purchases until late December or early January. I think the pain is only beginning for oil. Its going to be another big drop in the coming weeks/months. I will continue to buy as long as prices keep dropping.

Lots of speculation regarding economic warfare on Russia (because Russia's war budget is heavily based on oil profits). Timeline also synches with the Ukraine invasion, sanctions on oil execs, political pressure to shut-down oil major JV w/Russian oil firms.

I will enter positions of BHP and HFC. XOM is also a distinct possibility (because they have a great track record as capital allocators).

I am going to stay away from all Russian oil majors. Rampant fraud and corruption (personal hearsay and stories). It might be a 300-400% return at these #s, but I have zero faith in Russian capitalism and even less with Russian kleptocrats.

TBH- 2008/2009 was a fluke occurence. Its what happens when fear grips the viability of your banking industry. All assets get affected in a downturn like that. I sincerely doubt this is the same story all over again.

Interesting (if its true, and cheap):

Ben-Gurion University of the Negev researchers have invented a process to make gasoline from water and carbon dioxide. Additionally, the German company is Sunfire which says it can take regular water, harvest CO2 from the environment, and make high quality hydrocarbon fuels — gasoline and diesel, predominantly.

Those problem-solving germans, using their white- privilege again!

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/30...-gasoline/

I bought some Statoil (STO) which is at ten year lows at $17.50 per ADR share.

Oil's gotta go up someday, and I can wait. The Norwegian government owns 67% of Statoil.

Im still holding unto Buckle (BKE), but plans to cash out soon.

They announced a special dividend $2.77- payable Jan 27 (to shareholders of record Jan 15). AND they boosted dividends from 22c to 23c quarterly. If you add that up its basically a 7% dividend yield at today's prices (50-ish).

And they say retail is dead...

I've bought it at 44.85 and let it run sideways and collect dividends for the better part of this year, and finally getting my come-up.

I believe it will run up another 3-8 dollars/share.

My sell-out date will be the around Jan 10-14. Hopefully the stock makes good gains.

Will all these minimum wage increase across the U.S effect foreign currency prices? For example I know the Russian Rubel has getting hammered. Now I come accross the mexican peso isnt doing all that well either

http://www.businessinsider.com/mexicos-e...le-2014-12

Im curious what will happen when minimum wage is bumped up to $12-$15 an hour in major cities. Will the spread grow larger or smaller?

Anyone think the bump in oil stocks this week was a dead cat bounce? I bought Cenovus and MEG energy in the middle of the week and am up roughly 10 percent but I'm worried the price will continue to drop.

Is the downward pressure over or are they going to continue to drop?