(07-01-2014 08:28 PM)Richiavelli Wrote:  GoPro has returned 100% since IPO. I feel its a momentum play but I'm going to wait until i can trade options on it. It feels super overvalued.

Options are available for this next week ..7th July
Looks appealing in the 39 - 40 range to me for a move above highs.

(04-28-2014 10:11 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  Just a warning gentlemen but selling days are getting a lot bigger than buying days. Earlier stock leaders such as the MOMO stocks are getting crushed as everyone can see and now the leaders have been bluechip dividend paying stocks and Utilities as well. The smart money is moving out of momentum stocks and over to safer stocks.

It is interesting to note that many of the momentum stocks have had a great run since that April pullback. Eg. Netflix is up 50%, 3D Systems up 38%, ExOne up 68%.

(07-06-2014 07:57 PM)Steve9 Wrote:  

(04-28-2014 10:11 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  Just a warning gentlemen but selling days are getting a lot bigger than buying days. Earlier stock leaders such as the MOMO stocks are getting crushed as everyone can see and now the leaders have been bluechip dividend paying stocks and Utilities as well. The smart money is moving out of momentum stocks and over to safer stocks.

It is interesting to note that many of the momentum stocks have had a great run since that April pullback. Eg. Netflix is up 50%, 3D Systems up 38%, ExOne up 68%.

Very true. But there is still net selling and today was led by utilities again. The top performing assets I believe so far this year have been utility companies and gold.

Someone a few weeks back recommended gogo. Im long. Just picked up some more on the dip down to 17.45 or so. Im long but may sell what I picked uo today if we see a quick jump back to like 19.50. Sell and buy back on the dip that will probably follow. Overall im long though. Also following southwest, 3m, western union at the moment. Made some money off those trying to figure out when to get back in.

(06-20-2014 08:15 PM)scotian Wrote:  Have any of you (Big In Japan?) invested in Canadian oil companies? I"m thinking about buying some stock soon, apparently companies such as Suncor and CNRL are forecasted to jump quite a bit this year, both are going through major expansions at their oil sands sites right now and with recent events in Russia and Iraq, investors are flocking to Canadian oil. Here's an article that explains it in detail: http://business.financialpost.com/2014/0...=d5df-fedc

Did a little research on the Canadian oil companies and I have to say im not overly impressed with their numbers. Most of them have had stagnant earnings since 2011. Costs are out of control by the looks of it. Stocks have had a good run though. The majors have a high beta correlation with the price of oil so my guess is that is the cause for the run up.

One of my friends who is big into oil and gas plays like BHI and DVN. Both have had big run ups as of late as well. But they have all been upgraded by analysts and have great earnings reports so far this year. Also they have a lot of open interest as well going into 2015. I think on a pull back I would look to get into these companies until the Canadian producers can get costs under control again

I am looking at taking a stake in Lumber Liquidators (LL), "the largest specialty retailer of hardwood flooring in North America"

Shares are down to $57 in aftermarket trading after they announced an "earnings revision" tonight :

http://investors.lumberliquidators.com/2...-Year-2014

Robert M. Lynch, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "Customer traffic to our stores was significantly weaker than we expected, particularly in geographic areas severely impacted by the unusually harsh weather in the first quarter."

Their shares traded as high as $119 just 8 months ago.

As the USA home renovation market recovers over the next few years I expect that Lumber Liquidators will be a winning investment.

I just purchased shares and options (0.99c at strike price 3.0 dollars- feb 2015) of Veringo (VRNG). This was funded by my sale of Corning(GLW) which I sold out at 22.23 (purchased at 12ish back in mid 2013, which i posted in the 2013 stock thread).

Short write-up-
Veringo is basically and Intellectual-Patent Company that purchases under-utilized patents and sues other tech companies for patent infrigment- "IP Troll". Thing is this company is a touch different- they've been winning almost every case.

Their biggest case to date is against Google and Microsoft. Microsoft already settled. Google brought out the big guns, went to trial and lost- settlement value 1+ Billion. They are in appeals court, but it seems like they are unlikely to win.

One of the employee/directors was CTO for Lycos (older software company) that is alledging that all major companies basically copied Lycos' search engine alogrithim and criterion ranking (think Adsense). This is unlike other patent trolls, because this guy actually worked in early TECH. He was in charge of this technology and it makes it a tough sell to just dismiss as another patent troll.

They have a pretty good track-record of winning cases (mostly at the previous company before the merger- Innovate/Protect). Also have an ongoing case against ZTE w/various injunction issued in different countries (huge ups to Veringo). Market cap is just under 300MM w/share price of 3.44 with a negative eps. This means that most mutual funds/ETFs are unable to buy into this company at this current price.

Big minus is the cash-flow burn per quarter, but I think that is hugely overstated because they have a proven track-record of winning litigations and have ongoing and recent settlements w/various companies (settlements include a confidential settlement from ADT, settlement from microsoft, win from google to the tune of 1B+ but still held up in appeals court).

I pose this company has a massive upside w/minimal downside. I wouldn't be suprised to see this company jump to 8 dollars or even as high as 12-14(1B- 1.2B) if google just decides to buyout the company for its numerous patents.

Another upside is that w/a 1B+ cash war-chest they could go on a patent shopping spree and be much more formidable to large corporations. Google's strategy of going to war may be palatable against a small firm w/limited cash funds (40MM), but with Veringo's win over the giants of tech (MSFT and GOOG) and soon-to-be giant warchest, other tech companies will be gun-shy to go to trial. Its a true positive reinforcing cycle.

(07-10-2014 11:39 AM)DVY Wrote:  I just purchased shares and options (0.99c at strike price 3.0 dollars- feb 2015) of Veringo (VRNG).

Okay, i will read up on it. Let me elaborate why i had that negative first impression.

It is a technology patent troll company. It is not a bio-pharmaceutical company or a biotech company. Why is this relevant? Bear with me here. We are both familiar with the biological sciences, so we both know how hard it is to bypass patent protection in biotech areas, especially with Orphan Drug status. This difficulty doesnt exist in technology areas.There is no "Orphan Tech Status" in technology space. VRNG business model may make sense in biotech space, but not in technology space.

There are tens of hundreds of tech companies worth millions(with patents and lawyers) that became obsolete because some child in a garage invented a new software that out-compete their tech( which undergirds their business model).

So, VRNG won a tech patent infringement here and there, and never loses... so what?. how much is that patent worth in the open market giving the plethora of new tech coming in every month, doing old things better? As such, grabbing tech patents is like going for sloppy seconds, actually, sloppy thirds or sixth on a porn set after a gangbang.

I would rather look into buying the stocks of a company X producing new tech X that kicks arse; than a company Z suing company X for tech X... by the time company Z gets his hands on tech X, company X has moved on to tech Y or even worse, reverse engineer a better version of tech X and launch it. To further make my point, GOOG and MSFT have been sued several times...even entire countries has sued them. Look at the stocks of GOOG and MSFT versus the stock of the companies that have sued them? Which one perform better? I think you know the answer to that.(I have attached below the stock charts of VRNG versus GOOG and MSFT. to give a good comparison)

From the little i understand about the technology space, you need three things to have competitive advantage. (1) first to market (2)ability to out-execute the competition (3)hot-pace innovation within your company. otherwise, you will simply die out.

This is not biotech where i can see this business model working because of the strong patent protection clauses in that industry. also, because in the biotech, a patent is worth millions or billions for a decade or far more. So, if you get your hands on a biotech patent, you can be set for over a decade. This is not the case in technology space. New things become obsolete overnight. It is hard to reverse engineer in biotech, however, in tech space, you can reverse engineer EVERY BLOODY THING....and make it better.

This is why i think option trading is the best way to go about VRNG.. it is either a hero... or a zero.

anyways, later, i will read the financials on the company.

regards,

Nemencine.

I did only 44.5% last year... clearly, you kicked my arse. good work.

p.s.s. I have attached below the stock chart of VRNG since 2010 for the last couple of years...I could only go far back to 2010; and compare it to the stocks of GOOG and MSFT from the same period(2010)

Anyone have a thought on American Apparel? I have been reading a little on the drama and the battle for control, but not sure about its outlook as a stock. It did get some desperately needed funding.

@nemecine- Respect for the thoughts. I've been having a bumper year and 44.5% is nothing to sneeze at.

Its not just as simple as a "patent". The patent they are suing Google and Microsoft over is the search engine patent from Lycos. This means Bing and more importantly Google Adsense. For google at least, this is the KEY revenue driver. The patent expires in 2016, but they are entitled to a % of US-based Google revenue from Adsense. Google already attempted to do a work-around for Adsense and failed.

The company was originally a ring-tone and multimedia company, but sold of that business and pivoted into IP company.

http://www.wired.com/2014/01/adsense-patents/

Beyond that, the own hundreds of other patents from cell-phones to semiconductors to processing data. These are old patents made from legitimate old tech companies. They also received some key patents from MSFT in the Bing settlement in addition to 1MM in cash and 5% of whatever google pays (up to a certain cap. Believe off the top of my head 60MM).

(07-10-2014 05:47 PM)DVY Wrote:  I've been having a bumper year and 44.5% is nothing to sneeze at.

What are you charging to manage money?

^^I'll do it for fogo de chao and sushi. =).

I've been looking at mobile gaming recently. Huge opportunity. These freemium games are unto something. Huge real money revenues and giant piles of cash. Check out the cash-flow for King digital. Its truly a ridiculous feat.

(07-11-2014 10:42 PM)DVY Wrote:  ^^I'll do it for fogo de chao and sushi. =).

I've been looking at mobile gaming recently. Huge opportunity. These freemium games are unto something. Huge real money revenues and giant piles of cash. Check out the cash-flow for King digital. Its truly a ridiculous feat.

Done! I'll have my brokerage info sent over.

I'll check out King Digital. Thanks.

Never made either sushi place you suggested. I am sure you have discovered new and better ones.

But seriously, congrats on how well you are doing with your stock picking. You still in Corning or blow it all out?

Closed out the day I made the post about Veringo.

I still believe Corning will improve, but I think veringo has a better risk-return-value.

Fed minutes came out and said that QE is going to end this year.

Anyone else read ZH? The article about goldman saying stocks are overvalued and then they raised their forecast on the S+P was pretty funny.

(07-12-2014 11:30 PM)Richiavelli Wrote:  Anyone else read ZH? The article about goldman saying stocks are overvalued and then they raised their forecast on the S+P was pretty funny.

That is the way stock markets work. A couple of relevant quotes on this issue:

"To the dismay of many, stock prices are under no obligation to respond in kind to fundamentals in any predictable time frame. Beside fundamentals, there are a host of other factors (rational and irrational) that influence the actions of buyers and sellers in the marketplace. Prices don’t change when fundamentals change. Prices change when expectations and perceptions change and they could change for various reasons."

"You must stop thinking that the market is logical or should act in a reasonable manner. Most of the analysis and headlines you’ll read make the faulty assumption that the market is logical when instead it driven primary by perception, emotions and liquidity which have nothing to do with reason or logic."

(07-10-2014 02:32 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  Anyone have a thought on American Apparel? I have been reading a little on the drama and the battle for control, but not sure about its outlook as a stock. It did get some desperately needed funding.

Basically a bet on them going bankrupt or not. Is the brand worth $200 million + their debt? They aren't profitable and their debt levels keep going up year after year.

As a brand and an apparel company, their target demographic has cheaper more diverse options such as Zara and Forever 21. The ironic thing would be someone to take them over and them ship all of the manufacturing jobs to China. I don't see much to like here.

I've made good "bankrupt" bets in the past -- but I don't see any great argument for American Apparel.

(07-08-2014 06:47 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

(06-20-2014 08:15 PM)scotian Wrote:  Have any of you (Big In Japan?) invested in Canadian oil companies? I"m thinking about buying some stock soon, apparently companies such as Suncor and CNRL are forecasted to jump quite a bit this year, both are going through major expansions at their oil sands sites right now and with recent events in Russia and Iraq, investors are flocking to Canadian oil. Here's an article that explains it in detail: http://business.financialpost.com/2014/0...=d5df-fedc

Did a little research on the Canadian oil companies and I have to say im not overly impressed with their numbers. Most of them have had stagnant earnings since 2011. Costs are out of control by the looks of it. Stocks have had a good run though. The majors have a high beta correlation with the price of oil so my guess is that is the cause for the run up.

One of my friends who is big into oil and gas plays like BHI and DVN. Both have had big run ups as of late as well. But they have all been upgraded by analysts and have great earnings reports so far this year. Also they have a lot of open interest as well going into 2015. I think on a pull back I would look to get into these companies until the Canadian producers can get costs under control again

ZAR.TO, QXP.V and CAZ.TO have been very good to me this year.

Was curious if anyone has ever invested in the Iraqi stock market? I think it's called the WARKA. I've heard about it for years, some people were making some pretty good gains for a while. I've heard ever since this ISIS business their market is down 35% to 40% lately. Never really trusted how secure or how safe money is in there plus I hear it's a pain to put money in have to send over your passport with money and a bunch of other stuff.

I hear people talking about making good gains in the Turkish and Eastern European stock market. How do you invest? Do you have to get a special account setup or do you just buy funds that are a collection of stocks from their market

(07-14-2014 08:00 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Was curious if anyone has ever invested in the Iraqi stock market? I think it's called the WARKA. I've heard about it for years, some people were making some pretty good gains for a while. I've heard ever since this ISIS business their market is down 35% to 40% lately. Never really trusted how secure or how safe money is in there plus I hear it's a pain to put money in have to send over your passport with money and a bunch of other stuff.

I hear people talking about making good gains in the Turkish and Eastern European stock market. How do you invest? Do you have to get a special account setup or do you just buy funds that are a collection of stocks from their market

No special account needed for Turkey/EE.

There are Turkish & EE companies that are listed on the NY Stock exchange, eg. Turkcell (TKC)

If you do not want to research/buy individual companies then look at Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) which hold a basket of stocks. You buy ETFs exactly the same way as you buy US stocks, via your online broker.

A couple of relevant ETFs listed on the NY Stock exchange (there are quite a few more than this) :

iShares Turkey Index Fund (TUR)
iShares Emerging Markets Eastern Europe (ESR)

For obvious reasons investing in these countries contains more risk than investing in developed countries.

As for Iraq, I expect it will be broken up into 3 parts for the Sunni, Kurdish, & Shiite. There is no way I would invest there, the way things are looking.

When I get around to it I will be researching investing opportunities in Myanmar, as this country holds great promise.

In the longer term (10 to 15 years) I expect North and South Korea to reunify which would open up some great opportunities.

I can't seem to post this video.

It is from CNBC.

Santelli lost his shit - it was hilarious.

http://time.com/money/2982907/cnbcs-rick...ed-policy/

Anyone shorting QQQ or similar here? I thought of buying puts on QQQ for expiry late fall but haven't bitten the bullet yet.

I closed a position for a decent gain to reduce risk on a long-term speculative stock in my speculation account.

Damn oil and gas stocks taking a hit...

Also, that airliner being shot down over Ukraine didn't help YNDX. I wonder how much this tangential bad news will push it down.

Does anybody have any ideas on stocks(long or short) to play the isreali/palestinian conflict?

Here is an example of what i mean, e.g. (1) china/new zealand botulism problem. (2) winter de-icing salts scarcity stocks play. (3) obamacare rollout stocks play. (4) russian/ukrainian conflict financial market plays.

You get the picture. I like my stock picks to have a catalyst propelling them.

I am looking for something like that for the isreali/palestinian gaza conflict. The current gaza conflict in this case being the stock's catalyst. It doesnt have to be just stocks, are there solid isreali ETFs that i can short? Anybody familiar with EIS and ISRA? dont know much about them.

i am trying to comb through this list to see if there is an isreali defence stocks that i can buy(with emphasis on missile defence companies) or isreali airline stocks that i can short.

Even better, does anybody know isreali companies with strong business exposure to the gaza?(from energy to construction to telecommunication to retail, etc), that is, isreali stocks that does a lot of business in gaza or through gaza?

I should have started this stock operation on isreal since last week, when the conflict just started; but, better late than never....

regards,

Nemencine

I have been thinking about a long EXEL play, and there has been a run up in anticipation of the release of this quarter's results. Their cancer drug has reached the Phase III study endpoint goal, but numbers haven't been released. I was under the original belief that they may be released on the 31st, but after reconsideration, I may be wrong. I anticipate you can still scrape a few points before the 31st in anticipation, however.

Long term, I think it happens to be a win. In the past, however, I've bounced from pharm stocks after approval. This has saved me profits (ex. DNDN and ARNA).