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Stock Market 2014

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Ardbeg 路 2014-06-16 14:36:00 路 #279
(06-16-2014 01:28 PM)monster Wrote:  Anyone trading on Iraq right now?

was thinking of calls on OIL but last time I played options on Ukraine/Russia ETF and got burned due to time value.

Maybe just long on OIL

it's hard to tell if it's just escalating now or it will go further.

I've heard people say crude's going to 115-120 on supply concerns while I heard others say its going to 100 due to OPEC wanting it to be even lower right now.

Commodities are a special asset class in that insider trading is allowed (companies that hedge, say Exxon, are considered insiders because they deal with oil production). Other companies include Glencore and Trafalgar. They are sharks. You would only be gambling against people smarter than you if you invested in any type of direct oil exposure, either through ETFs or futures contracts.
cool 路 2014-06-16 18:46:00 路 #280
Anyone watching GOGO?

The company provides in-flight WIFI and wireless entertainment on aircraft. The stock recently took a hit when AT&T announced they are entering the market, but right now GOGO has 80% market share and any competitor would have to overcome significant barriers to cut into that share.
DVY 路 2014-06-16 19:54:00 路 #281
im looking at coach (aka handbags) right now too. Still doing research, but its worth a mention here.
Ardbeg 路 2014-06-17 03:39:00 路 #282
(06-16-2014 07:54 PM)DVY Wrote:  im looking at coach (aka handbags) right now too. Still doing research, but its worth a mention here.

Check out KORS also if you are looking into luxury goods. Their growth is amazing. Talk to your female friends about what they are buying.
DVY 路 2014-06-17 15:40:00 路 #283
@Ardberg- you are right. 4/6 of my female friends (La-based) and fashion forward just said that Coach is a High School-brand (implying that its a fake name-brand). <----Brand is falling here in LA. Asking on Michael Kors, its just a "stepping stone" brand for more expensive stuff like Prada, LV, Hermes etc. Thats my limited focus research. My chinese fob wealthy homegirl said that Coach is still a rage back home and it'll continue because Coach has a better name world-wide than MK or Kate Spade (new upstarts).

Some redeeming factors- Coach is priced in for all this negative hype. Coach is venture-partner in a NY-based reconstruction w/significant NY-tax credit for the building. They purchased 77,000 sq feet of space (plus or minus 15k sq feet). This is being done all-cash. Thats a lot of prime real estate to own. Big plus.

Some big flags- 44% SGA. This means that Coach is operating under a large fixed cost basis, and needs certain volume to operate its stores. This is unlike BKE (jeans store) that has fixed operating costs at 21% steady over the last 10 years. Coach is a lifestyle brand and its under attack. Expect increased expenses and lower sales. Big minus.

My conclusions- some value, but not definite enough for me to pull the trigger. Lots of floating variables and no loyal customer base. China and overseas is likely going to be the biggest driver of growth going forward BUT NA are likely going to continue falling.

For me, Id snap up shares if they fall to mid 20s as the RE portfolio along w/cash, zero debt, and overseas growth would be sufficient margin of safety imo.
Sp5 路 2014-06-19 17:32:00 路 #284
I'm pretty happy today, gold and silver took a big jump and so did my miners, GFI and SLW.
monster 路 2014-06-19 19:45:00 路 #285
(06-19-2014 05:32 PM)Sp5 Wrote:  I'm pretty happy today, gold and silver took a big jump and so did my miners, GFI and SLW.

I saw that. Are you gonna take your profits ? It's just a temp thing. GLD will be back to 123-124 soon
BIGINJAPAN 路 2014-06-19 21:25:00 路 #286
SLV Broke out today on the weekly and monthly charts. Look for a decent sized move to follow after this. Volume was decent.

More importantly Gold has formed an inverse head and shoulders. Hasn't moved out of range yet but I would expect a substantial move higher starting in late August.

I thought we were going to hit 1950 on the S&P by December. I am baffled how we got there already with -GDP and tapering going forward. Half way to a recession so July could be quite interesting. I think initially they will pull some magic numbers out of their hat but I bet once it is revised at the end of the summer the US will be in an official recession.
jamaicabound 路 2014-06-20 11:40:00 路 #287
Thanks to whoever posted about GOGO the other day. Picked up some of that on a dip. Like what I see about them and their future. Would love to see a buyout or at the very least continue to hold the large market dhare they have
scotian 路 2014-06-20 20:15:00 路 #288
Have any of you (Big In Japan?) invested in Canadian oil companies? I"m thinking about buying some stock soon, apparently companies such as Suncor and CNRL are forecasted to jump quite a bit this year, both are going through major expansions at their oil sands sites right now and with recent events in Russia and Iraq, investors are flocking to Canadian oil. Here's an article that explains it in detail: http://business.financialpost.com/2014/0...=d5df-fedc
BIGINJAPAN 路 2014-06-20 23:32:00 路 #289
(06-20-2014 08:15 PM)scotian Wrote:  Have any of you (Big In Japan?) invested in Canadian oil companies? I"m thinking about buying some stock soon, apparently companies such as Suncor and CNRL are forecasted to jump quite a bit this year, both are going through major expansions at their oil sands sites right now and with recent events in Russia and Iraq, investors are flocking to Canadian oil. Here's an article that explains it in detail: http://business.financialpost.com/2014/0...=d5df-fedc

Fuck, you just brought me back to when I first started investing in stocks. I was holding a ton of Canadian trusts back in the day... Then the infamous halloween massacre happened in 2006... I think I just started really getting into oil stocks at the beginning of the year and got completely crushed that day.

I havent done much research on canadian oil companies in a long time. Input costs have really bogged them down in recent years. If there is going to be some real turmoil in the middle east I would expect them to rally hard. I do know over the last couple years the canadian pipeline companies and US refiners have been killing it, so there could be a rotation soon into the actual oil companies.

I will do some research over the weekend and see if there is anything worth owning. BUt looking at the charts I can see that they have already been moving up quite a bit and the volume hasnt increased. So i dont think people are buying into Canadian oil companies en masse just yet.
Sp5 路 2014-06-21 04:38:00 路 #290
(06-19-2014 07:45 PM)monster Wrote:  
(06-19-2014 05:32 PM)Sp5 Wrote:  I'm pretty happy today, gold and silver took a big jump and so did my miners, GFI and SLW.

I saw that. Are you gonna take your profits ? It's just a temp thing. GLD will be back to 123-124 soon

There was some pullback yesterday.

I'm going to sit on them for awhile, I have price targets within the 52 week highs.

I think the upside is still there, several reasons: Ukraine + China economy + Iraq & Syria + South China Sea issues + hidden and eventually revealed inflation + possible shady re-re-hypothecation of "paper" gold.

The latter is why I buy stock in the miners rather than GLD or SLV. I just don't trust those instruments.
Sp5 路 2014-06-21 04:41:00 路 #291
(06-20-2014 08:15 PM)scotian Wrote:  Have any of you (Big In Japan?) invested in Canadian oil companies? I"m thinking about buying some stock soon, apparently companies such as Suncor and CNRL are forecasted to jump quite a bit this year, both are going through major expansions at their oil sands sites right now and with recent events in Russia and Iraq, investors are flocking to Canadian oil. Here's an article that explains it in detail: http://business.financialpost.com/2014/0...=d5df-fedc

I was looking at Oryx, but can't find a way to buy it on a US exchange.

They seem to be doing well.
Bill 路 2014-06-21 07:19:00 路 #292
Have one of you guys tips for German companies?
DVY 路 2014-06-21 10:21:00 路 #293
NYRT- NY REIT

- 4% dividend (REIT) yield thats 90% shielded by depreciation
- Stable rents that are increasing yearly
- RE purchased below replacment cost

Friday last 30 mins of the day there was crazy volume. Friday's volume was 20MM. Thursdays was 3.3MM. Average is about 1.3MM. Fridays volume was 17x normal amount.

Is a big investor getting in? What are your thoughts boys?
BIGINJAPAN 路 2014-06-22 16:12:00 路 #294
(06-21-2014 04:41 AM)Sp5 Wrote:  
(06-20-2014 08:15 PM)scotian Wrote:  Have any of you (Big In Japan?) invested in Canadian oil companies? I"m thinking about buying some stock soon, apparently companies such as Suncor and CNRL are forecasted to jump quite a bit this year, both are going through major expansions at their oil sands sites right now and with recent events in Russia and Iraq, investors are flocking to Canadian oil. Here's an article that explains it in detail: http://business.financialpost.com/2014/0...=d5df-fedc

I was looking at Oryx, but can't find a way to buy it on a US exchange.

They seem to be doing well.

Why dont you just buy it off the TSE ? Surely your US broker will allow you to purchase canadian stocks... I pretty much only trade US options and futures and I have no problem executing trades in Canada
cool 路 2014-06-22 17:18:00 路 #295
(06-20-2014 11:40 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Thanks to whoever posted about GOGO the other day. Picked up some of that on a dip. Like what I see about them and their future. Would love to see a buyout or at the very least continue to hold the large market dhare they have

At what price did you enter?
Richiavelli 路 2014-06-22 23:58:00 路 #296
FYI just be careful if you're holding odd foreign oil/mining companies not traded on a US exchange, there's weird tax rules surrounding passive foreign investment companies (PFIC).

I think most people here will be fine, but since we're talking canadian oil might as well chime in.
Richiavelli 路 2014-06-23 00:04:00 路 #297
trying to catch up on this thread, but The only interesting thing I've bought is verizon and small cap ETFs.

I'll probably just trade industries for the rest of the year, 1950+ s+p already central bankers ftw
jbkunt2 路 2014-06-25 20:04:00 路 #298
Hi all,


This may be slighty off-topic but can anyone recommend the best options for low to medium risk interest-bearing savings accounts or investments?

I am trying to save for a deposit on a mortgage - I have around $50k - but need to build credit history first (12 month goal).

I'd like to get this cash earning at least some interest over the next 12 months. A mix of low/medium/high risk investments would work too. I'm not afraid of putting a chunk in medium to higher risk investments.

Any recommendations on products or banks/firms would be greatly appreciated. I am clueless here!

Thank you kindly![/align]
Sp5 路 2014-06-27 05:58:00 路 #299
When is this crash going to happen, so I can buy? Hurry up!!

I'm not going to buy now, my risk appetite is not that high.
Mike5055 路 2014-06-27 12:53:00 路 #300
Scooped up some more Valero (VLO) after a sharp dip the other day. Still downright cheap on a fundamental basis.
JayJuanGee 路 2014-06-27 13:31:00 路 #301
EDIT: Actually, I realized that in my below response post, I probably should have directed jbkunt2 to another thread, and answered him within that other thread - since my below response is NOT very much the topic of this thread... related to Stock Market 2014, but rather overall considerations in basic ideas about "safe" investing.

So fair warning: my below post is largely a tangent from the theme of this thread - and I will concede in advance that continuing such discussion, if anyone is interested in such, should be taken to another thread - relating to thoughts on overall "safe" investment strategies/considerations over the next 12 months or so.



(06-25-2014 08:04 PM)jbkunt2 Wrote:  Hi all,


This may be slighty off-topic but can anyone recommend the best options for low to medium risk interest-bearing savings accounts or investments?

I am trying to save for a deposit on a mortgage - I have around $50k - but need to build credit history first (12 month goal).

I'd like to get this cash earning at least some interest over the next 12 months. A mix of low/medium/high risk investments would work too. I'm not afraid of putting a chunk in medium to higher risk investments.

Any recommendations on products or banks/firms would be greatly appreciated. I am clueless here!

Thank you kindly![/align]

You have outlined fairly well a few of your parameters, including the amount of money that you have and the timeline in which you want to be able to use it.. and the fact that you are continuing to work on your credit history.

I have a little bit of trouble understanding your scenario to have a solid $50k at the moment, but then don't you have some kind of cash flow over the next year? I am NOT much of a believer in pumping a large sum at once into one investment but diversifying it and using your cashflow over the time period to dollar cost average the investment while potentially front loading various aspects of the investment.

Guys are going to have varying opinions regarding this, but it has been my sense that in the past 5 years or so that most banks (whether online or NOT have been increasingly reducing the amount of interest that they pay). Accordingly, if you find anything paying 3% or more, then you would be doing pretty good, relatively speaking.

It appears that you are in the UK, and it is possible that you may have some better options than guys in the US... Much of my cash is getting less than 1%.. which is really bullshit. using Capitlal 0ne online banking (which used to be ING and used to earn more than 5%, but that was 5 yrs ago)

Personally, $50k is quite a bit to acquire without having it work for you in some kind of way.. or if you just have it in cash or if you just have it earning 1-2% interest.

Over the years (20 years or so) I have put a lot of my money in varying index funds (stocks and bonds), and they have done o.k., but NOT great, but overall they have averaged between 5 and 6% returns (they have had some good up years of 20 to 30% and some down years of similar magnitude). One good thing about index funds is that they may be less risk over the long run, but any one year period, they may be up or down... .and you could get screwed....

In the last 8 months, I have been putting some of my newly available investment funds into bitcoin (actually, i have been fairly strategic about it in attempting to invest on the dips and to plan the investment over an extended period of time), yet my timeline, when i started with bitcoin was 2 years or more, b/c I got into bitcoin after it had experienced more than a 50x increase in value (price) over the previous year.

Probably many guys here are going to be pretty hesitant about bitcoin, the future of bitcoin or how to allocate bitcoin investments within their overall investment holdings. Ultimately, there is a lot of misinformation and disinformation out there about bitcoin - even though there are some advantages to bitcoin (including being able to manage it fairly well yourself with varying amounts of investment, can put money in or out fairly quickly, and it has been going down in price over the last 7 months, so i believe it is likely to go up in the coming months especially if you measure probabilities 6-12 months from now).

Overall, I am of the belief that 12 months is a pretty short time line for any guy to plan how to invest $50k, and I am of the belief that you need to account for your cashflow over that time period, as well as how much you have available at this particular moment. Accordingly, if you were to adjust your timeline a little to 15-18 months, then you could invest in a variety of instruments over the next 2-3 months, and then just dollar cost average over the remaining period, until you cash out.

So in this regard, pick your various investment instruments, divide your $50k into $2-5K allotments, and distribute that money over the various instruments. I think that you should also plan out your cashflow for the next 15-18 months in order to continue to invest incoming money (on a dollar cost averaging basis) into the varying financial instruments that you chose. Ultimately, I would place between $5-10K of the initial funds into bitcoin, but certainly, you should be able to figure out some risk allocation that is comfortable for you.

I do NOT know about any one stop shopping bank that is going to get you more than 1% interest on cash, yet some other guy may know and be able to chime in with that kind of information.
DVY 路 2014-06-30 18:40:00 路 #302
Whats your guys thought on Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY). Seems like an interesting play. Lots of household knick-knacky products that is driven by the mail-coupons and catering to the middle-aged housewife or youngish aged females.

I've been reading there 10-K almost 5 years back and am impressed by how they manage capital and grow at the same time. Its truly a cash-cow.

Theres the two quarters of missed earnings, and slightly decreased gross margin (but still quite good for retailers) BUT is it really reason to drop it that much? The company has zero debt and 700MM cash on hand, and 1B of cash flow every year.

What are your guys thoughts? Valid worry or just fear hype?
Richiavelli 路 2014-07-01 20:28:00 路 #303
GoPro has returned 100% since IPO. I feel its a momentum play but I'm going to wait until i can trade options on it. It feels super overvalued.
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