Just wondering if guys here pay attention to the major drivers of stocks ?

Seems like a lot of talk about individual stocks but nothing about the larger picture. I havent seen much talk about certain sector rotations, options flow, currency flows, bond prices, QE tapering or economic data.

Just a warning gentlemen but selling days are getting a lot bigger than buying days. Earlier stock leaders such as the MOMO stocks are getting crushed as everyone can see and now the leaders have been bluechip dividend paying stocks and Utilities as well. The smart money is moving out of momentum stocks and over to safer stocks. Not to mention more money is moving into bonds and causing rates to drop again even though they are tapering bond purchases.

Could just be a case of sell in May and go away, or it could be the correction we are majorly over due for. Also stocks do not do well if there is any sort of conflict in the world. If russia was not involved in Ukraine i wouldn't worry but as we all know that is not the case. 10% seems likely at this point, could get uglier but might not. Option flow is still showing the S&P at 1950 at the end of the year. Still seems attainable even with a 10% correction this summer.

I was actually of the opposite impression. I thought stocks if anything do better when there's conflict in the world although I'm no expert.

(04-29-2014 01:12 AM)lavidaloca Wrote:  I was actually of the opposite impression. I thought stocks if anything do better when there's conflict in the world although I'm no expert.

That is generally not the case. Increased geopolitical and economic risks typically boost demand for traditional safe-havens such as gold; US, German, and Japanese government bonds.

Things are fine. I'm printing dollars.

BRK.B dropped 2.5 points over the last few days despite the rest of the market rallying. I tapped out my margin account and am hoping it goes back to 129 within a few days.

Alibaba released to the press they're planning on going public with an IPO. Any of you have opinions/thoughts investing once the IPO rush/hype is over?

Chinese Giant Alibaba Will Go Public, Listing in U.S.

(05-07-2014 01:27 AM)Moreless Wrote:  Alibaba released to the press they're planning on going public with an IPO. Any of you have opinions/thoughts investing once the IPO rush/hype is over?

Chinese Giant Alibaba Will Go Public, Listing in U.S.

I was reading some interesting evaluations for yahoo based on the Alibaba IPO. I would be more inclined to put some bull call spreads on Yahoo to take advantage of this IPO.

The metrics used show that Yahoo could be undervalued by about $15.00 bucks a share if the Alibaba IPO is mildly successful.

(04-29-2014 06:53 AM)Steve9 Wrote:  

(04-29-2014 01:12 AM)lavidaloca Wrote:  I was actually of the opposite impression. I thought stocks if anything do better when there's conflict in the world although I'm no expert.

That is generally not the case. Increased geopolitical and economic risks typically boost demand for traditional safe-havens such as gold; US, German, and Japanese government bonds.

The conflict in Ukraine has been killing my portfolio as of lately, so this is not true. Aluminum intuitively should rise if political tensions rise, but even Alcoa is dropping.

(04-08-2014 03:07 PM)TopPanda Wrote:  

(04-02-2014 10:36 AM)Scuba_Instructor Wrote:  Anyone got an opinion on the UK FTSE 250?

With the Help to Buy scheme being extended until (at least) the end of the decade the index should continue to grow - it contains a number of UK building firms.

It's currently up 17% on this time last year.

The UK is booming right now. I'd say we're approaching the top of the current economic cycle, but it could have two more years of growth left. The FTSE could climb, but it's risky at these valuations.

Cracks are starting to appear (check the supermarket share prices like Tesco).

The housing market will likely crash and burn again, but in the long term prices will only be going in one direction (and it's not down).

Apologies for the delay in responding - thanks for the info.

From looking at the movement of the index I'd say you're spot on!

UK housing market continues to verge on insanity in the South.

(12-26-2013 09:22 AM)chyamor Wrote:  This is specific to the market for the year 2014. Much like the 2013 thread

Do we continue hitting new highs? I dont see any bad news stopping this bull. How will bitcoin play a factor? 2014 looking like status quo

I don't think new highs....January was a bad month and it has historically been a good indicator of how the rest of the year will be. Won't be as good as 2013 I think

Not sure if any one is ballsy enough to run a short option, but China has some pretty awful fundamentals, building where no one lives, buying up all types of metal, etc. Might be a good option for those of you with some bank to look at shorting Rio Tinto. I'm not sure if I would jump on it right now, but in the near future it would probably be a strong play. Consider they are only $4 short of their 52wk high.

As to the idea of high-risk growth stocks vs stable blue chips with dividends, the philosophy I inherited from my granddad has been to subtract your age from 100, and that number will be the percentage of your portfolio that should have a high-risk, and your age would be the percentage of fixed income/blue chips. The main premise is that when you are younger, if you strike out, you still have time to regain that capital, as opposed to when you are older.

As always, make sure to diversify your portfolio, without that you are vulnerable to single sector swings. Also, if you have less than 10k (really 50k) single stocks won't give you your best option. A quality ETF would be a far better option. However, if you are the type that likes to gamble, then gamble away.

Quick question. I'd like to get into stocks and would like to know which brokerage service is good to use.

I was going to go with scottrade but I'm not really able to keep the minimum $500 deposit in an account with them. I'm thinking about going with tradeking since they don't require a minimum deposit. Your thoughts?

(05-13-2014 02:14 PM)Laurifer Wrote:  Quick question. I'd like to get into stocks and would like to know which brokerage service is good to use.

I was going to go with scottrade but I'm not really able to keep the minimum $500 deposit in an account with them. I'm thinking about going with tradeking since they don't require a minimum deposit. Your thoughts?

Since you're Canadian like myself, I would suggest BMO Investorline. $9.95 a trade, no minimums, and you can keep track of both your TFSA and RRSP (IRA and 401k Canadian equivalents). Depending on what bank you're at of course.

(05-13-2014 04:09 PM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  

(05-13-2014 02:14 PM)Laurifer Wrote:  Quick question. I'd like to get into stocks and would like to know which brokerage service is good to use.

I was going to go with scottrade but I'm not really able to keep the minimum $500 deposit in an account with them. I'm thinking about going with tradeking since they don't require a minimum deposit. Your thoughts?

Since you're Canadian like myself, I would suggest BMO Investorline. $9.95 a trade, no minimums, and you can keep track of both your TFSA and RRSP (IRA and 401k Canadian equivalents). Depending on what bank you're at of course.

Do not use a big Canadian Bank trading platform ever ! A couple of reasons: The platforms always shut down on heavy heavy volume days. Those are the days that the market is tanking and everyone is selling... Except big canadian bank clients because they are all locked out of the platform. Could be shitty technology or could be they know exactly what they are doing and keeping you trapped in long positions.

Secondly, their fees are through the roof. They can't even come close to touching the fees of questrade for a RRSP account or IB for a margin account. They might advertise lower rates, but if you have little money in the account you will be paying $30 bucks guaranteed.

Thirdly, their platforms blow. They are not user friendly, they charge you for extra data and REAL TIME FEEDS on most products. That is of course if they even offer you more than a couple different exchanges to trade from.

My recommendations as a real trader and been doing it for a number of years now is Questrade for RRSP trading account. I believe you can even open an account with as little as $50 bucks. Their fees I believe are still the lowest for trading in a RRSP account and even let you trade covered calls.

Interactive Brokers is the best trading site in Canada hands down. But they do not have RRSP accounts last time I checked, which was last year.
Lowest rates by a mile. Great platform with a ton of data, newsfeeds, charts, training and security. Questrades security is just like all the others. But IB's has an extra layer of protection. Problem is you need to keep an minimum of 2k in value of cash or cash equivalent ie. stocks, bonds, or other securities. Also I believe you have to have 10k to open it. But after that I think they will let you withdraw cash if you would like.

If you are in the US i am partial to TOS. Mainly because I am an options and futures trader. They also have very low fees.

If you have only 500 bucks or less than trading is not for you at this point. You are better off saving more money up and buying books and watching a lot of webinars in the meantime. There is no rush to in getting started. Open a paper trading account and learn to follow a system. Almost anyone will work, you just have to stick to it.

It is only $9.95 a trade, there is a yearly fee of about $100, may be more if you have a larger amount of cash (I currently am trading with about 4k).

I have not personally experienced those "blackouts" even when the Dow dropped over 100 points in the last couple weeks.

I recommend checking out both, and choosing what you like better, I highly doubt commission of 9.95 is the very best you can get too.

Thanks for the replies. Since I am making my money in Canada it would probably be easier to just go with a Canadian broker. However, regarding BIGINJAPAN's advice, maybe for now I will hold off until I have more than enough disposable cash to put into a few stocks. I figured maybe if I bought a bunch of shares into a company that I think has big potential (3D printing) and sat on it for several years it could be a worthwhile venture. I've never invested before and am just going off of what I know. Maybe at my age I'm in over my head.

(05-14-2014 12:00 AM)Laurifer Wrote:  I figured maybe if I bought a bunch of shares into a company that I think has big potential (3D printing) and sat on it for several years it could be a worthwhile venture. I've never invested before and am just going off of what I know. Maybe at my age I'm in over my head.

Shares in 3D printing and any other "cult" industry can be very volatile. To give you just one example, the share price of 3D Systems Corp (DDD) has dropped from $97 to $50 in the last few months.

What company were you thinking of buying?

I recommend that you focus on increasing your income, reducing your expenses, save, and learn more about investing before throwing your cash at the next big thing.

You could investigate great cash flow generating machines like Starbucks (SBUX) who are still growing rapidly and whose future is more predicable than a 3D printing company.

(05-14-2014 12:00 AM)Laurifer Wrote:  Thanks for the replies. Since I am making my money in Canada it would probably be easier to just go with a Canadian broker. However, regarding BIGINJAPAN's advice, maybe for now I will hold off until I have more than enough disposable cash to put into a few stocks. I figured maybe if I bought a bunch of shares into a company that I think has big potential (3D printing) and sat on it for several years it could be a worthwhile venture. I've never invested before and am just going off of what I know. Maybe at my age I'm in over my head.

Its really never to early or too late to get in the game. I follow a lot of Jim Cramer's books/show and he has made huge wealth out of rags. He stated that he used to invest money when he was living out of his car, and the principle is that in the end, you want your money working for you, not to work for your money. Investing is the path to huge freedom, not just with stocks, but real estate and business ventures.

(05-13-2014 08:49 PM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  It is only $9.95 a trade, there is a yearly fee of about $100, may be more if you have a larger amount of cash (I currently am trading with about 4k).

I have not personally experienced those "blackouts" even when the Dow dropped over 100 points in the last couple weeks.

I recommend checking out both, and choosing what you like better, I highly doubt commission of 9.95 is the very best you can get too.

Dude if you think a 100 point drop in the DOW is volatility then you obviously have not been trading for very long. You let me know how that platform holds up when the VIX is at 30 or higher

(05-14-2014 11:36 AM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  

(05-14-2014 12:00 AM)Laurifer Wrote:  Thanks for the replies. Since I am making my money in Canada it would probably be easier to just go with a Canadian broker. However, regarding BIGINJAPAN's advice, maybe for now I will hold off until I have more than enough disposable cash to put into a few stocks. I figured maybe if I bought a bunch of shares into a company that I think has big potential (3D printing) and sat on it for several years it could be a worthwhile venture. I've never invested before and am just going off of what I know. Maybe at my age I'm in over my head.

Its really never to early or too late to get in the game. I follow a lot of Jim Cramer's books/show and he has made huge wealth out of rags. He stated that he used to invest money when he was living out of his car, and the principle is that in the end, you want your money working for you, not to work for your money. Investing is the path to huge freedom, not just with stocks, but real estate and business ventures.

I didnt meant to discourage anyone from investing. But you need to learn before you do. Taking a little bit that you have saved up and throwing at one stock or even a couple stocks in the same category is not a good strategy... Educate yourself first and then slowly ease into it.

(05-14-2014 09:58 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  I didnt meant to discourage anyone from investing. But you need to learn before you do. Taking a little bit that you have saved up and throwing at one stock or even a couple stocks in the same category is not a good strategy... Educate yourself first and then slowly ease into it.

I agree entirely, and am taking your advice to trade elsewhere. Do they support TFSA as well? Because lets be honest, you and I both want to be touching our money before it matures at 65, and at a much lower tax rate.

(05-14-2014 10:04 PM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  

(05-14-2014 09:58 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  I didnt meant to discourage anyone from investing. But you need to learn before you do. Taking a little bit that you have saved up and throwing at one stock or even a couple stocks in the same category is not a good strategy... Educate yourself first and then slowly ease into it.

I agree entirely, and am taking your advice to trade elsewhere. Do they support TFSA as well? Because lets be honest, you and I both want to be touching our money before it matures at 65, and at a much lower tax rate.

Pretty sure IB doesnt have TFSA either. You have to go to questrade for that. IB is more of a professional trader platform that needs leverage. The rules are such in Canada that RRSPs and TFSAs are not eligible for margin.

Just picked up a decent clip of WU @15.82. Its one of the most amazing business models I've seen. Very little overhead, minimal cap-ex, good brand name, difficult for competitors because of legal complexities, and high volume of small transactions. Its also selling at 11 P/E.

Throws off 3% dividend and has massive stock buybacks every year. The earnings are understated under GAAP because of buy-backs.

I think analysts are dead-wrong about the Walmart entering money transfers competitively, because they are still stuck on the national USA level (and not international like WU). Mobile banking may be on the horizon, but its still far away for 80% of the world who still prefer hard currency.

I see no way I don't clear at least 50%-100% in the next 1-2 years.

(03-29-2014 04:16 PM)Steve9 Wrote:  At a time when most US internet companies appear to be fully valued, Im looking at buying Yandex (YNDX) on Monday. It is the most popular search engine in Russia with a 62% market share.

The stock is down 35% since the Crimea crisis.

Analysts expect Yandex to grow 30%+ per year over the next 5 years.

If there are any tech savvy Russians here that think that Yandex will not be a much bigger company in 5 years please add in your thoughts.

Goddamn it, I have watched YNDX pop back up to $30.50 from a low of $24.00 in the last week or two.

I go to the gym everyday and CheeseCake Factory is an absolute madhouse everytime. I looked up the stock.

CheeseCake Factory (CAKE). Its a very interesting business. I am kind of mindblown at how they manage to open 3-5% new restaurants while also returning OVER 100% of earnings to stockholders in buy-backs and dividends.

Not really sure how exactly they do it, but it has a similar pattern to McDonalds. Negative cash conversion cycle for food supplies, efficient enterprise software, and negotiating leases effectively to allow constructions costs to be capitalized in exchange for rent.

GAAP earnings are understated compared to FCF. Each year, the company buy-backs about 10-15% of market-share. I am 75% of the way through the 10-k and still in preliminary research phase but its rare I want to buy something by page 3 of the report.

Also, its still family company with most key employees at the company more than 25 years.

Still kind of shocked that people have skipped this company over (2.2B in market share).

Is anyone else looking at Whole Foods Market (WFM) here at $37?

It is a great business, but increasing competition from other organic grocers has led to its share price dropping 40% from its high last October.

If they can successfully defend their profit margins, there looks to be a lot of growth ahead as it expands from its current 377 stores, to its target of 1200 stores.