Post: #1

I usually read that China will slowdown their economy in the long term and won't become a superpower.But the fact is that the country will be unstopable in all their aspects.

As well as they are well-known as being an intelligent and millenarial culture,they know how to wisely face their problems in a silent and collective way.

-They will progresively destroy the one-child policy,which will overthrow the fears of their elderly population in the future:

http://www.businessinsider.com/from-one-...ina-2013-8

-The country is emerging in technology an innovation,so they will remain competitive in the global market:

http://knowledge.insead.edu/world/china/...ation-1180

-China becomes the world's top source of overseas students.That will send millions of students around the world,and as you can see,they will implement their knowledge later on back to their country or found their own business at the country they decide to settle down:

http://english.caixin.com/2012-09-25/100441943.html

-World leader in building supertalls and skyscrapers,as you can see in this list of current projects across the world,most of them are located in the hundreds of Chinese emerging cities:

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=902

I have concluded this points based on my own research and asking to chinese people about what they think of the future of their nation.They are convincing that they will go on the right direction.

For those of chinese descendance or with a deph knowledge of the nation would be glad to share your thoughts and real facts about it.

Post: #2

(08-14-2013 07:01 AM)Kristian Wrote:  As well as they are well-known as being an intelligent and millenarial culture,they know how to wisely face their problems in a silent and collective way.

They're not known for being intelligent at all. They currently have a culture of perseverance and hard work, but they still aren't that creative.

They also have a history of decadence and decline.

They have a very short list of inventions, and stuff they did invent such as gun powder they didn't really exploit.

Quote:-They will progresively destroy the one-child policy,which will overthrow the fears of their elderly population in the future:

That doesn't guarantee anything by itself.

Quote:-The country is emerging in technology an innovation,so they will remain competitive in the global market:

The chinese/han haven't invented anything of global significance since the wheelbarrow. They are near exhausting cheap labour, and manufacturing is start to leave China.

Their economy is plagued with malinvestment and their ruling class hasn't figured out out to placate their population by means other than increased wages, which is under threat with marginal economic growth slowing.

Quote:-China becomes the world's top source of overseas students.That will send millions of students around the world,and as you can see,they will implement their knowledge later on back to their country or found their own business at the country they decide to settle down:

Which benefits the country they settle in, not China.

Quote:-World leader in building supertalls and skyscrapers,as you can see in this list of current projects across the world,most of them are located in the hundreds of Chinese emerging cities:

Tall buildings aren't a factor in world dominance.

Quote:I have concluded this points based on my own research and asking to chinese people about what they think of the future of their nation.They are convincing that they will go on the right direction.

Most ascending nations are.

Quote:For those of chinese descendance or with a deph knowledge of the nation would be glad to share your thoughts and real facts about it.

China is gong through it's industrial revolution, nothing more. And I mean it's whole socio-economic structure modifies to match this.

The west did this in the early to mid 19th century, Japan did it in the late 19th century, Russia/Soviet Union did this in the mid 20th century, and Korea after WWII.

South America doesn't qualify as it still has too many locked out of being viable industrial nation contributors, though Brazil and Argentina could change very quickly.

So back to China, it now knows what it wants. Looks at vibrant parts of the US, Europe, Australia, Japan, etc,

China now wants this, of course it will lead to increased prosperity and confidence. It's still not leading, and embedding inefficiency by copying the west and obtaining hegemony by undercutting the price.

This most of all displays China isn't confident enough to lead from the front and isn't in a mindset to learn how to be.

The biggest impact on the planet and most of our lives, is that you'd have to say approx 900 million people live industrial/post industrial lives, and demand the corresponding resources.

This number will more than double with China, and nearly quadruple as India looks its doing the same too.

4 times more global oil demand, 4 times more demand for all forms of energy, 4 times water.

As most forms of energy today are currently in the guise of carbon intense, non-renewables, you'd have to cautious what competing demands may lead to.

China still has a culture of the late 19th century when everyone beat it down into humiliating submission and will probably be more chauvinistic when protecting its interests (and desires) this time around.

That said, they are still widely disliked by their neighbours and I'd guess they'll have a hard time winning any major conflict.

Post: #3

In the 80's, everyone said Japan would be unstoppable and thought they'd have bought up most of New York by now. Didn't happen...

Fact is, humans are notoriously bad at actually predicting the future. There's always some unforseen dynamic that comes up, that we explain away after it happened, but nobody predicted in advance.

There are economists and analysts who are more worried about China imploding and the subsequent negative effects of that on the global economy, than they are about it becoming the dominant superpower.

So we can't be too certain about anything - it's probably a decent bet to say they'll experience more growth, development and be a big global player, but so will other countries, and who knows how their unique cocktail of advantages and problems will pan out.

Post: #4

Spent 4 months living in China.

Chinese work very hard, but no work gets done.

The ASEAN nations have a huge opportunity to work together and sideline China. Thailand has a wonderful environment, the Phillies have English speakers and Myanmar, and Vietnam are on the up.

Post: #5

The Chinese are technical powerhouses. Anything that requires constant drilling to become better is their specialty.

In terms of innovation they are stagnant. When it comes to education they are taught to the test to make great test scores, but the current regime and educational establishment is not one that strives to push for innovation.

This is usually why a lot of technical work gets outsourced over there while a lot of companies in North America will structure out the blueprint.

They sure are hard-working though; my inner artist is awestruck at the foundational skills they have mastered over the years.

Post: #6

but what if China gets nuked ???

Post: #7

I love hearing views on the major economies from people in different countries. In america we are so brainwashed we typically remain oblivious until someone from another country ridicules us for being ignorant. A common belief is that Germany would have taken over the world in WW2 if it wasnt for us Americans. What a load of crock. There may be potential for China to overtake the US. It makes sense on paper, but I dont dare form an opinion with the biased information I get here in the states. Id rather hear what intelligent people seperated from our propaganda have to say on the matter.

Post: #8

China will be a superpower eventually, if it isn't already, but your arguments are flawed.

(08-14-2013 07:01 AM)Kristian Wrote:  ...[The Chinese] know how to wisely face their problems in a silent and collective way.

There are a lot of protests, you just don't hear about them.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international...ay/250940/

(08-14-2013 07:01 AM)Kristian Wrote:  -They will progressively destroy the one-child policy,which will overthrow the fears of their elderly population in the future:

Even if the one-child policy was repealed today it would take 18 years for the new generation to reach productive age--not exactly a quick fix. Furthermore, mainland Chinese birthrates will likely converge to those seen in Hong Kong and Taiwan--culturally similar regions which never had such a policy. Hong Kong and Taiwan have some of the world's lowest birthrates, well below the replacement rate.

(08-14-2013 07:01 AM)Kristian Wrote:  -The country is emerging in technology an innovation,so they will remain competitive in the global market:

China is good a making patents (and copying) not at innovation. Patents are often created just for the sake of making patents to receive government payouts. The ideas are rarely marketable.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424...38648.html

Here is my experience with Chinese innovation:

http://www.expat-chronicles.com/2012/12/business-china/

(08-14-2013 07:01 AM)Kristian Wrote:  -China becomes the world's top source of overseas students.That will send millions of students around the world,and as you can see,they will implement their knowledge later on back to their country or found their own business at the country they decide to settle down:

I'm skeptical and don't see this being a game changer. I've met Chinese students who've studied abroad but couldn't speak English because they only hung out with other Chinese students. Did they get ideas? Who knows. Besides, I've read that Western universities were flooded with Japanese students during its boom in the 80s; now, not so much. China may follow suit.

(08-14-2013 07:01 AM)Kristian Wrote:  -World leader in building supertalls and skyscrapers,as you can see in this list of current projects across the world,most of them are located in the hundreds of Chinese emerging cities:

This might actually be a cause of worry, not of optimism. According to the Skyscraper Index, an alternative leading economic metric, after tall buildings go up a country's economy often goes down.

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/05/busine...aper-index

China's economy will probably be the world's largest in twenty or thirty years, not five or ten like optimists hope. But by that time India will have taken the spotlight.

Post: #9

The elites are sending their kids abroad for education and buying real estate abroad.

Check out the nationality of California real estate sales. Chinese nationals are responsible for much of the price rebound since the downturn.

Post: #10

(08-15-2013 02:56 PM)Camel Wrote:  China will be a superpower eventually, if it isn't already, but your arguments are flawed.

(08-14-2013 07:01 AM)Kristian Wrote:  ...[The Chinese] know how to wisely face their problems in a silent and collective way.

There are a lot of protests, you just don't hear about them.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international...ay/250940/

(08-14-2013 07:01 AM)Kristian Wrote:  -They will progressively destroy the one-child policy,which will overthrow the fears of their elderly population in the future:

Even if the one-child policy was repealed today it would take 18 years for the new generation to reach productive age--not exactly a quick fix. Furthermore, mainland Chinese birthrates will likely converge to those seen in Hong Kong and Taiwan--culturally similar regions which never had such a policy. Hong Kong and Taiwan have some of the world's lowest birthrates, well below the replacement rate.

(08-14-2013 07:01 AM)Kristian Wrote:  -The country is emerging in technology an innovation,so they will remain competitive in the global market:

China is good a making patents (and copying) not at innovation. Patents are often created just for the sake of making patents to receive government payouts. The ideas are rarely marketable.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424...38648.html

Here is my experience with Chinese innovation:

http://www.expat-chronicles.com/2012/12/business-china/

(08-14-2013 07:01 AM)Kristian Wrote:  -China becomes the world's top source of overseas students.That will send millions of students around the world,and as you can see,they will implement their knowledge later on back to their country or found their own business at the country they decide to settle down:

I'm skeptical and don't see this being a game changer. I've met Chinese students who've studied abroad but couldn't speak English because they only hung out with other Chinese students. Did they get ideas? Who knows. Besides, I've read that Western universities were flooded with Japanese students during its boom in the 80s; now, not so much. China may follow suit.

(08-14-2013 07:01 AM)Kristian Wrote:  -World leader in building supertalls and skyscrapers,as you can see in this list of current projects across the world,most of them are located in the hundreds of Chinese emerging cities:

This might actually be a cause of worry, not of optimism. According to the Skyscraper Index, an alternative leading economic metric, after tall buildings go up a country's economy often goes down.

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/05/busine...aper-index

China's economy will probably be the world's largest in twenty or thirty years, not five or ten like optimists hope. But by that time India will have taken the spotlight.

I'm curious about the one child policy.

Taiwán nd Hong Kong don't have one child policy and they have so low birth rate?Its very strange!

What will happen with India?I don't think It will rise so much in the economical aspect

Post: #11

(08-15-2013 03:20 PM)JimNortonFan Wrote:  The elites are sending their kids abroad for education and buying real estate abroad.

Check out the nationality of California real estate sales. Chinese nationals are responsible for much of the price rebound since the downturn.

I read somewhere that because of our policy of free market property rights that China will eventually buy up all of Manhattan and Wall Street (same place?). They'll buy up all of our available big ticket real estate and our national parks from the Gov in exchange for massive debt forgiveness. An economic invasion if you will. And because of our open market, it'll all be legal.

As to the larger point of China's innovation, they are suffering from brain drain, just like India. The best and the brightest move west for a better life. As the middle and upper classes expand this will ease and they will become more competitive. However, they need to encourage more free thinking to make this happen, which is dangerous given the massive number of peasants in the country who could take it the wrong way and start a revolution.

Post: #12

(08-15-2013 10:23 PM)Mack Four Wrote:  I read somewhere that because of our policy of free market property rights that China will eventually buy up all of Manhattan and Wall Street (same place?). They'll buy up all of our available big ticket real estate and our national parks from the Gov in exchange for massive debt forgiveness. An economic invasion if you will. And because of our open market, it'll all be legal.

Again though, exactly the same was predicted for Japan in the 80's/90's... world-class economists wrote books on Japan as the new world superpower... and it didn't happen. In fact they hit a 15 year slump. Fact is humans just aren't that good at predicting these things.

BTW, government debt isn't like other kinds of debt. When your major competitor owns all your debt, it's as much a problem for them as you. It's not the leverage you would expect it to be:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/20...ty-threat/

Post: #13

(08-15-2013 10:23 PM)Mack Four Wrote:  I read somewhere that because of our policy of free market property rights that China will eventually buy up all of Manhattan and Wall Street (same place?). They'll buy up all of our available big ticket real estate and our national parks from the Gov in exchange for massive debt forgiveness. An economic invasion if you will. And because of our open market, it'll all be legal.

The smartest thing to do would be to allow that. let them pay premium prices, then crash the property market once again, devaluing their assets, and the ol' U.S with a fist full of dollars from their sold property buys it back again on the cheap.

Post: #14

OP seems mostly right. I agree. China will overtake the US in 10-20 years or so. They will have a lot of unique problems, same stuff that plagues all developed countries. Right now, China can copy, piggyback & take a piss while US/Europe/Japan have to take the lead globally. That's no strategy when you're #1. I'm excited about China's rise. There might be big problems -- geopolitics, communism, pollution, resources, yadayada --, but the big picture is that 1 in 5 people on earth will join the developed world. They're very welcome, IMO.

It'd be also be great if the West would meet a real competitor. Since the Soviet Union collapsed we've moved into a mind-numbing spectacle of sideshow politics which must annoy any normal man; wars on backwaters like Afghanistan, all sorts of gay stuff, feminist whining, sensitivity training, animal rights, Islamophobia and whatnot. The whole AltRight blogosphere seems like a response to all this. It's time to get serious again and competition with China might do the trick. We can't be focused upon the Phelps-church or Oprah's shopping bag snub when we're competing with a real rival.

Besides, "rival"? What about some happy-clappy libertarianism here. The world economy is not zero-sum; China's rise might make a lot of stuff cheaper, more available and interesting. We could even benefit.

I don't think the US should worry too much. Some things like IT/Silicon Valley are impossible to copy. This particular concentration of startups, high-tech, venture capitalists, nice weather, high salaries & continuous innovation will make it a nerd Mekka and Fortune500 machine until the sun absorbs the earth.

Post: #15

(08-16-2013 03:25 AM)Maciano Wrote:  OP seems mostly right. I agree. China will overtake the US in 10-20 years or so. They will have a lot of unique problems, same stuff that plagues all developed countries. Right now, China can copy, piggyback & take a piss while US/Europe/Japan have to take the lead globally. That's no strategy when you're #1. I'm excited about China's rise. There might be big problems -- geopolitics, communism, pollution, resources, yadayada --, but the big picture is that 1 in 5 people on earth will join the developed world. They're very welcome, IMO.

It'd be also be great if the West would meet a real competitor. Since the Soviet Union collapsed we've moved into a mind-numbing spectacle of sideshow politics which must annoy any normal man; wars on backwaters like Afghanistan, all sorts of gay stuff, feminist whining, sensitivity training, animal rights, Islamophobia and whatnot. The whole AltRight blogosphere seems like a response to all this. It's time to get serious again and competition with China might do the trick. We can't be focused upon the Phelps-church or Oprah's shopping bag snub when we're competing with a real rival.

Besides, "rival"? What about some happy-clappy libertarianism here. The world economy is not zero-sum; China's rise might make a lot of stuff cheaper, more available and interesting. We could even benefit.

I don't think the US should worry too much. Some things like IT/Silicon Valley are impossible to copy. This particular concentration of startups, high-tech, venture capitalists, nice weather, high salaries & continuous innovation will make it a nerd Mekka and Fortune500 machine until the sun absorbs the earth.

Yes, I agree with all of these points. The rise of China can be mutually beneficial from an economic standpoint. You're talking about 1 billion consumers who want American stuff.

I do not think a place like Silicon Valley will ever spring up anywhere else in the world.

-

Post: #16

(08-16-2013 03:38 AM)youngmobileglobal Wrote:  Yes, I agree with all of these points. The rise of China can be mutually beneficial from an economic standpoint. You're talking about 1 billion consumers who want American stuff.

Well that's the problem when you don't have a currency that isn't floating.

To buy U.S stuff, you need U.S wages.

If a chinese worker is half as productive, they not only should from a moral point of view, but NEED to be paid half as much. To compensate for aggregate demand.

Every American worker lost because he job is off-shored, is a customer lost. That worker, for a replacement customer, needs that new chinese worker(s) to have the same wage demand, otherwise the American supplier has lost an American customer, and no replacement.

Perhaps you'll rely on the increase dividend from the American company, as it pays lower wages comsensurate to ouput... but people who are loaded and making the decision to collect this much divdend aren't in the business of spending the same amount they gain.

Quote:I do not think a place like Silicon Valley will ever spring up anywhere else in the world.

Well keynesian economics has ben extinct for 30 years, so it will take a while.

APRANet sprung out of the U.S defence force, and the two big players of the post WWII period, Hewlett Industries and Bell lived large on Keynesian spending pumping silicon chip designers galore out of Stanford so they put better and better chips in Werner von Brauns ballistic missiles.

It was a 20-30 year outlay. No private enterprise has a 20-30 year time horizon, so you'll never get it from them. hell.

edit: oh, and the other major factor, VERY liberal land practices. Entrepreneurs excel when their fixed costs are low. Low land costs for them, and their workforce, and cheap utilities which in todyas environment includes telecoms. The western world is full of this areas full of price gougers, barring the Southern U.S states when it comes to cheap land.

Post: #17

(08-15-2013 02:56 PM)Camel Wrote:  Here is my experience with Chinese innovation:

http://www.expat-chronicles.com/2012/12/business-china/

Fantastic article! It's like something out of a horror movie with a business theme. Crazy stuff.

Post: #18

chinas rise will have negative net effects on the us. finite resources (food, energy) seeing demand ibcrease 5 fold fold is going to hurt

Post: #19

China is going to have to conquest for resources at some point. They're building up a military right now, including a carrier bought from Russia. It will take a generation worth of time to be able to use it effectively, as well as building support vessels.

I've always felt China was a ticking time bomb due to population density. One aggressive strain of bird flu or similar will decimate their numbers.

Post: #20

(08-16-2013 08:00 AM)clever alias Wrote:  chinas rise will have negative net effects on the us. finite resources (food, energy) seeing demand ibcrease 5 fold fold is going to hurt

(08-16-2013 09:24 AM)Aliblahba Wrote:  China is going to have to conquest for resources at some point. They're building up a military right now, including a carrier bought from Russia. It will take a generation worth of time to be able to use it effectively, as well as building support vessels.

I've always felt China was a ticking time bomb due to population density. One aggressive strain of bird flu or similar will decimate their numbers.

China will exploit and, if necessary, invade Africa for the resources. They already have their hands deep in many African countries. I wouldn't worry about Chinese resource problems.

Post: #21

(08-14-2013 12:24 PM)TopPanda Wrote:  Spent 4 months living in China.

Chinese work very hard, but no work gets done.

The ASEAN nations have a huge opportunity to work together and sideline China. Thailand has a wonderful environment, the Phillies have English speakers and Myanmar, and Vietnam are on the up.

My company is based out of Singapore and I oversee some health and safety inspections with the factories we use in China. I can't tell you how frustrating this feeling is, and you summed it up in 9 words. SO many people work so hard over there and it feels like so little gets done.. The other thing that is crazy about the Chinese (at least in my industry) is that they will straight up look you in the eye and lie to your face. Perhaps these two things go hand in hand. Not saying all Chinese are liars that can't get shit done, its just been a part of my personal experience in the technology industry.

Btw I'm hit or miss with Asian girls (mostly miss), but I've seen some of the most beautiful women in my life - rivaling girls of Kiev - walking around Hong Kong. Another thing I've noticed about working with Chinese women in my field is that they are not leaders at all. They need to be told what to do and then they work their ass off to get it done. Many of the professional Chinese women I come across must be more stressed out than any poor girl working in a sweat shop.

Post: #22

Sure Chinese don't innovate but they don't need to when they can just pay white dudes like 'Martin Zhang' to do it for them.

(08-16-2013 09:24 AM)Aliblahba Wrote:  China is going to have to conquest for resources at some point. They're building up a military right now, including a carrier bought from Russia. It will take a generation worth of time to be able to use it effectively, as well as building support vessels.

This has been happening peacefully for some time. http://www.fastcompany.com/chinastormsafrica
I suspect they're waiting for AIDS to reduce the local populations further before sending settlers.

Post: #23

China at the conquest of Central Asia:

http://chinaincentralasia.com/

Post: #24

China has been heavily investing in resources for years. They have bought into the oilsands heavily.

They let the US do the dirty work in Afghanistan and made off with the bulk of the resources there. Of course I think the west was more worried about keeping the flow of drugs going. So I guess it worked for everybody, except maybe the Taliban.

Post: #25

(08-16-2013 11:20 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(08-16-2013 08:00 AM)clever alias Wrote:  chinas rise will have negative net effects on the us. finite resources (food, energy) seeing demand ibcrease 5 fold fold is going to hurt

(08-16-2013 09:24 AM)Aliblahba Wrote:  China is going to have to conquest for resources at some point. They're building up a military right now, including a carrier bought from Russia. It will take a generation worth of time to be able to use it effectively, as well as building support vessels.

I've always felt China was a ticking time bomb due to population density. One aggressive strain of bird flu or similar will decimate their numbers.

China will exploit and, if necessary, invade Africa for the resources. They already have their hands deep in many African countries. I wouldn't worry about Chinese resource problems.

I wonder what half black, half Chinese 18 year old University girls look like?