Post: #1

Quote:Junior's pawnshop sits alongside a faceless strip mall, across the street from a cement fortress - the sheriff's office - 30km north of Miami's South Beach. Inside a steady stream of people come in to sell off their possessions. There's a stack of palmtop computers, brand new Bose speakers and so many Guess watches that Junior won't take them any more. "I get the guy who drives up in the Bentley, and the people who walk in. No one has cash."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/....useconomy

If you hold dollars or houses, both decreasing in value, your wealth is evaporating before your eyes.

I put some money in foreign currencies (everbank.com) but besides buy a safe and stock up on gold, i will be hammered along with the rest of the middle class.



Good resource: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Post: #2

Gold hasn't been doing so well recently and it seems to be stuck in the below 850-1000 range. Sometimes pops a little above then then heads back down. The dollar has actually been rallying, the oil bubble bursted as I predicted. Whether it'll last who knows, there've been a lot of times in the last few years I thought the dollar was rallying back and it was just taking a step forward prior to 2 steps back. This one may be no different. We'll see. I came very close to diversifying into foreign currency through everbank, but I held off because I figured if I didn't do it a few years ago, I'm just a Johnny come lately that will probably lose his ass. As the European economies continue heading into recession, they will have to start lowering rates which will cause a dollar rally.

As for those people pawning their consumer goods, they are getting what just deserts. They were foolish enough to pull equity out of their artificially inflated home prices and go on a spending spree. Now it's time to pay the piper.

Post: #3

I didn't put money into the Euro... all the pundits said it was overvalued. I focused on the Yen, Norweigan Krohne, Swiss Franc, and somewhat regrettably, the Australian Dollar. All fiat currencies will eventually fall though and this diversification is just a play at preserving my money instead of investment. I don't want to put my eggs all in one basket (the dollar). If the dollar goes up, I win on my foreign currency holdings, and if the dollar goes down, vice versa. My wealth should remain pretty stable barring worldwide currency failure.

In the end though investing is gambling and i'm not going to kid myself with gaining riches. I believe markets are rigged (Plunge Protection Team) and investment is better suited in businesses or real assets.

As for gold I've been thinking about backing the truck on CEF for my IRA this week or the next, which is a canadian gold trust that holds physical gold and silver. It's doubtful gold will go under 750/ounce. If you want to get into gold fever then read Sinclair.. http://www.jsmineset.com/

I'm a believer in peak oil but with a global recession i have no idea what that will do to the price of oil in the next three years.

Right I'm thinking of going for a Brazilian Real 3 month CD (pays 6%) but am nervous to pull the trigger as recession will spread to emerging economies and their central banks will probably lower interest rates. The 2.75% my internet bank offers is not very appealing though.

Post: #4

You don't even have to go through a gold trust if you have an IRA. If your IRA custodian offers it, you can go straight for some gold currencies still in circulation (link).

Post: #5

(08-14-2008 12:05 AM)Roosh Wrote:  If the dollar goes up, I win on my foreign currency holdings, and if the dollar goes down, vice versa. My wealth should remain pretty stable barring worldwide currency failure.

I'm a bit confused about something. If the dollar goes up versus other currencies, you've lost wealth since you took some of your wealth out of an appreciating asset. You've missed an opportunity cost of that money that is tied up in foreign currencies. That money could be an an appreciating dollar. That's assuming the dollar is at or near it's low and someone just diversifying. That may not be the case, I'm just making a hypothetical assumption.

Quote:I'm a believer in peak oil but with a global recession i have no idea what that will do to the price of oil in the next three years.

There is peak oil and I think the trend will generally be upward, but it's hard to argue that the price increases we've seen in the last year or two is anything but pure speculation. Gas prices traditionally peak during summer and start heading down after Labor Day so I think it's entirely possible to have under $100 a barrel by the end of fall.

Quote:Right I'm thinking of going for a Brazilian Real 3 month CD (pays 6%) but am nervous to pull the trigger as recession will spread to emerging economies and their central banks will probably lower interest rates. The 2.75% my internet bank offers is not very appealing though.

Tell me about it! Damn Bernanke. I used to get nearly 5% through emmigrant direct, now it's 2 point something.

Post: #6

On the subject of fiat currency problems, is there anywhere I can order one of these Zimbabwe notes just for the novelty?

Post: #7

Quote:I'm a bit confused about something. If the dollar goes up versus other currencies, you've lost wealth since you took some of your wealth out of an appreciating asset.

Yes but I've gained wealth on the existing dollars if i use those stronger dollars abroad. So in the end it's close to a wash for me.

But lets take the guy who kept everything in dollars. If the dollar goes up, he has gained more than i have.

Post: #8

http://www.virtualbank.com has better interest rates on cds then 2.75%

Post: #9

(08-14-2008 11:54 AM)speakeasy Wrote:  There is peak oil and I think the trend will generally be upward, but it's hard to argue that the price increases we've seen in the last year or two is anything but pure speculation. Gas prices traditionally peak during summer and start heading down after Labor Day so I think it's entirely possible to have under $100 a barrel by the end of fall.

I don't think so. Speculation didn't really have anything to do with the price of oil going up; it was increased demand from India and China. (http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/01/news/eco.../index.htm) If speculation were to blame for driving prices up, we would have seen demand drop in other countries aside from the US.

Mexico's and Russia's production has decreased over the past year and will continue to do so as demand continues to surge in Asia. Long-term, I'd bet on oil continuing to increase in price. I wouldn't be surprised if it doubled in the next 2 years.

I don't really buy into the idea of "peak oil" in the same way that the "9/11 was an inside job" crowd does; I'm more in the camp of energy investment banker Matt Simmons (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fo3sxhBylw). I Do think that production will continue to decline as demand increases in emerging markets, but I don't foresee a complete economic collapse any time soon.

Post: #10

(08-16-2008 06:06 PM)Eric Wrote:  I don't think so. Speculation didn't really have anything to do with the price of oil going up; it was increased demand from India and China. (http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/01/news/eco.../index.htm) If speculation were to blame for driving prices up, we would have seen demand drop in other countries aside from the US.

I don't agree. The demand for oil didn't rise by such a factor in the last 2 years to justify a doubling of oil prices. The math just doesn't work. What happened is there was a commodities bubble. It wasn't just oil, but it was food commodies, gold, silver and other metals. After the real estate bubble bursts, and the credit market crashed, people needed safe havens to put their money in. They can't put it in cash because inflation is high and interest rates low, you'd be losing money. People then turn to tangible assets. Real estate was cooked so they turned to commodities. Now commodities are in a bear market.

Post: #11

(08-13-2008 10:21 PM)Roosh Wrote:  I put some money in foreign currencies (everbank.com) but besides buy a safe and stock up on gold, i will be hammered along with the rest of the middle class.

+1 to gold

Around $1700 now, if China and India keep buying and buying at current volumes and finds/stocks don't increase, the price will keep rising, never thought it would go up so far and so fast, where will it stop?

"Lifes about, shooting your load"

Post: #12

The dollar is a bad place to have your money, but U.S. real estate prices will recover. Buffett recommended residential real estate a while ago.

Post: #13

I bought Zillow about 2 weeks ago! so far so good

Post: #14

(08-18-2008 01:06 AM)speakeasy Wrote:  

(08-16-2008 06:06 PM)Eric Wrote:  I don't think so. Speculation didn't really have anything to do with the price of oil going up; it was increased demand from India and China. (http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/01/news/eco.../index.htm) If speculation were to blame for driving prices up, we would have seen demand drop in other countries aside from the US.

I don't agree. The demand for oil didn't rise by such a factor in the last 2 years to justify a doubling of oil prices. The math just doesn't work. What happened is there was a commodities bubble. It wasn't just oil, but it was food commodies, gold, silver and other metals. After the real estate bubble bursts, and the credit market crashed, people needed safe havens to put their money in. They can't put it in cash because inflation is high and interest rates low, you'd be losing money. People then turn to tangible assets. Real estate was cooked so they turned to commodities. Now commodities are in a bear market.

What else is there to turn to?

Post: #15

what do you guys think about investing in silver?

Post: #16

I invested in silver and basically storing it now for the long run.

The first post talks about gold being at $1000, that was in 2008.

Post: #17

Both the dollar and the Euro are doomed. What's happening here is very simple. Government bureaucrats and central bankers are flooding the market with paper currency, or bailing out miscreants like Spain and Greece, in the forlorn hope that economic growth will somehow magically appear, actually create some wealth that will make that fiat currency valuable again. They are running on a treadmill that is moving just a bit faster than them, and they are losing ground slowly, but inevitably.

I wish I could buy very long term puts on both the dollar and the Euro -- say, 8-10 year puts. Right now, bankers are in delusion mode. One day -- not tomorrow, not next year, not 3 years from now, but eventually, it will all come crashing down. And it will happen suddenly, almost without warning.

The United States is headed either for another recession, or growth in the 1-2% range. Europe is ossified. It's in emerging markets where growth will occur.

Finally, peak oil. It is amazing this concept is still around, when it has been proven over and over again to be false. There is an astonishing amount of fossil fuel in the earth -- it's all about discovery and extraction methods. And they are constantly improving. 25 years ago, no one would have imagined the kind of deep ocean wells we can drill. We will be burning gasoline 100 years from now, and there will STILL be people talking about peak oil. Fossil fuels are here to stay because they are the most efficient on demand energy source.

Post: #18

(12-04-2012 10:09 PM)Andy_B Wrote:  The dollar is a bad place to have your money, but U.S. real estate prices will recover. Buffett recommended residential real estate a while ago.

+15-20 years maybe, but within that time probably not.

Post: #19

Back in the days when Roosh thought he could share this kind of information on the internet. Oh how times have changed.

(08-14-2008 12:05 AM)Roosh Wrote:  I didn't put money into the Euro... all the pundits said it was overvalued. I focused on the Yen, Norweigan Krohne, Swiss Franc, and somewhat regrettably, the Australian Dollar. All fiat currencies will eventually fall though and this diversification is just a play at preserving my money instead of investment. I don't want to put my eggs all in one basket (the dollar). If the dollar goes up, I win on my foreign currency holdings, and if the dollar goes down, vice versa. My wealth should remain pretty stable barring worldwide currency failure.

In the end though investing is gambling and i'm not going to kid myself with gaining riches. I believe markets are rigged (Plunge Protection Team) and investment is better suited in businesses or real assets.

As for gold I've been thinking about backing the truck on CEF for my IRA this week or the next, which is a canadian gold trust that holds physical gold and silver. It's doubtful gold will go under 750/ounce. If you want to get into gold fever then read Sinclair.. http://www.jsmineset.com/

I'm a believer in peak oil but with a global recession i have no idea what that will do to the price of oil in the next three years.

Right I'm thinking of going for a Brazilian Real 3 month CD (pays 6%) but am nervous to pull the trigger as recession will spread to emerging economies and their central banks will probably lower interest rates. The 2.75% my internet bank offers is not very appealing though.

Post: #20

Quote:If you hold dollars or houses, both decreasing in value, your wealth is evaporating before your eyes.

Check out this. It's a series of pictures with Chinese house-owners who refuse to move out to make way for bigger developments. This is the extreme of when people invest all of their money into their house (however shitty these may look) and then over-value it as a result.

Post: #21

(12-08-2012 03:36 AM)Safado Wrote:  Back in the days when Roosh thought he could share this kind of information on the internet. Oh how times have changed.

Nothing has changed. There are many people with far more money than Roosh discussing their investment strategies online. Just tune into CNBC and listen to a Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, or Peter Schiff interview. No big deal.

Post: #22

You can't eat gold, but if the time comes you can make others eat lead.