(07-10-2016 01:56 PM)BBinger Wrote: Happy halving everybody. The biggest action so far from this has been the revelation that Bitcoin is deeply fatshaming. Still the rest of the year should be a wild ride starting in September.
Don't forget to HODL!
(07-10-2016 07:36 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:(07-10-2016 01:56 PM)BBinger Wrote: Happy halving everybody. The biggest action so far from this has been the revelation that Bitcoin is deeply fatshaming. Still the rest of the year should be a wild ride starting in September.
Don't forget to HODL!
Yeah. That fatshaming is an interesting kind of way of framing the situation.
I take it that you are using September as a kind of reference point for the next price increased based on how long you expect for the results of the lessening of the supply to be felt, or is there some other reason that you are projecting September for such?
(07-12-2016 01:48 PM)BBinger Wrote:(07-10-2016 07:36 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:(07-10-2016 01:56 PM)BBinger Wrote: Happy halving everybody. The biggest action so far from this has been the revelation that Bitcoin is deeply fatshaming. Still the rest of the year should be a wild ride starting in September.
Don't forget to HODL!
Yeah. That fatshaming is an interesting kind of way of framing the situation.
I take it that you are using September as a kind of reference point for the next price increased based on how long you expect for the results of the lessening of the supply to be felt, or is there some other reason that you are projecting September for such?
That and looking at the last halving. Was in November gradually started being felt in price by late December, but broke loose February through March. Given that 3/4 as opposed to half of all Bitcoins have been mined as well as more and largely different players being involved now the supply squeeze could hit differently this time. Anywhere from August through January.
Sure Mt Gox is gone as a nexus of instability, but Bitfinex is likely to enter its death throes and play a similar role.

(07-14-2016 11:50 AM)jamaicabound Wrote: I sold off a large percentage of my coins. I was just looking at the charts. I don't know that it will reach back here but my personal feeling right now is I'm not comfortable buying back in until we get back to $580, if we do. I could be totally off base and it could continue rising from here but personally not comfortable rebuying my big position back in until $580
(07-14-2016 02:53 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:(07-14-2016 11:50 AM)jamaicabound Wrote: I sold off a large percentage of my coins. I was just looking at the charts. I don't know that it will reach back here but my personal feeling right now is I'm not comfortable buying back in until we get back to $580, if we do. I could be totally off base and it could continue rising from here but personally not comfortable rebuying my big position back in until $580
What kinds of percentages of BTC are you talking about selling, jamaicabound? From your description, it sounds like more than 75% of your holdings, no?
I can kind of recognize what you are saying, when you are looking at some of the charts and the rate of bitcoin's price growth, and in that regard, maybe $580 would be a bit more reasonable place to be, based on a kind of traditional assessment of the asset, or at least another test of $580 before either continuing upwards price movement or even flat.
On the other hand, bitcoin is not really any kind of traditional asset, and has a very decent potential to experience another exponential upwards price spike at any moment, that could take us 5x, 10x or maybe some smaller stepping stone before making such movement, and in that regard, I have difficulties selling any significant amount of my BTC holdings at these mid-$600s prices, and my holdings remain a bit bias stacked in favor of upwards. I have projected ranges of holdings for myself at various price points, which currently is 85% to 96%, and my current BTC to fiat is a bit over 95% (which is very near the top of the range, which could be a bit too exuberant) .
I continue not to really know short-term price directions either, especially the shorter the term of prediction the more difficult it is to know.
Part of the additional difficulty in predicting either price direction comes when we are continuing to experience a relatively low level of trade volume (which I think remains the current case, in spite of little volume spikes here and there, they are not sustained for more than a day or so), so if there is some kind of desire by either side to push BTC prices upwards or downwards, they could likely do it in the short term and even achieve a 5% or greater movement in either direction without much difficulties.
I was telling my GF yesterday that I thought that over the previous few days since price had moved up from the $640s to $678 and then back down to the mid $650s on relatively low volume, that there was pretty decent momentum to at least get into the $640s, especially if there were just a pick-up spike in volume for the shorter term, but instead the price bounced back into the $660s.. and remains in the lower $660s as I type.
I would say currently (looking back at the last month and a half of so) that BTC prices are largely unpredictably floating in about a $550 to $750 range, and they could bounce around quite a bit in that range and to still stay in that very large range.
I mean it seems that we have a bit of a low volume battle here. Bears would like prices to go back below $500 and bulls would like prices to go above into the $800s at least. It also seems that whenever there are spikes in volume, those spikes remain attempts to push the price down, and then come all at once to attempt to make such downward price pushes, but the prices trickle back up on relatively lower volume.. and accordingly, it seems that Bulls have a bit of an advantage overall because of the upward dynamics and because the bears really would have liked to have kept prices below $500 for a lot longer, but they lost control of that situation and seem to be having difficulties even getting prices to go below $600 for any extended period of time.. take the last push to $540 on 6/22.. the prices were below $600 for only about 1 day total, and there were several unsuccessful attempts thereafter to try to bring prices below $600.. .
Accordingly, our previous range for about the whole beginning of 2016 up until the end of May was $360 to $460.... and we broke out of that range... and kind of seemingly no return absent some really major negative situation.
So, sure it is possible and within possible reason to go down to $580 or lower, but I certainly would not hold my breath for such to occur.
Hypothetically, if I were to sell any significant percentage of my BTC holdings in the mid $600s today, I would probably be buying back about 20% of what I had sold for every about $20 drop, just to be safe, because like I mentioned, there have already been several unsuccessful attempts to go below $600, and whether this next attempt (if such an attempt comes) would be successful to go below $600 remains quite unclear and even seems to be a bit against the odds...
Any further explanation or assessment from you jamaicabound would be appreciated, or from anyone, even if the assessment goes contrary to what I am asserting, which is a bit more on the bullish end of things.
(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:(07-14-2016 02:53 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:(07-14-2016 11:50 AM)jamaicabound Wrote: [edited out][edited out]
Hey buddy, yeah honestly my moves with Bitcoin are more gut decisions than based on any type of hard numbers, although I feel like historically just from looking at charts as well as kind of taking into consideration current events and just overall support for BTC that I'm fairly decent at predicting or guessing trends.
)(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote: I had kind of touched on it in a previous post but I was swing trading bitcoins back in the 2015.
(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote: Prior to Novermber 15 bought in a little over 300 sold for 400. Waited for the drop back to 350 then in december sold for like 440 or so. Bought back in in the 380 range in Jan, etc.
(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote: Honestly prior to the recent runup prices had been kind of stagnent and I kind of got busy with other things and totally forgot about Bitcoin. I heard about the price spike and decided to selloff like 90% of my holdings.
Looking back I wish I hadn't because it's kind of stupid selling off taking gains just to buy back in but I guess I was anticipating or hoping for another dip/buying opportunity and wanted to take some profits and get back in with a bit of extra money to buy a few more coins.
(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote: I'm a believer in Bitcoin for the longterm. I really have any concrete numbers in mind but honestly in the next 5 or 10 years I could see it being back to the $1200 days or even something crazy like 20k a coin, I just really don't know so for that reason always wanted to keep a pretty good stock of coins as I think it's only going to continue to go up.
(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote: Everyone hates merchant processors, bitcoin solves that problem. The marijuana industry is another example, they are locked out of banking and there's a solution to processors refusing to work with that and other "high risk" industries. My current business is paying almost 7% in merchant processing because were high risk despite not having had a chargeback in over 3 years while doing thousands of transactions a year over 2.5 million. Recently a processor told me I'm high risk because I had one chargeback of $157 out of like hundreds of successful transactions totaling over 2 million. Now banks like Chase are getting all finicky over international wires, closing down the ability of small businesses to wire money. The lack of someone being able to control bitcoin has so many applications for business we just need more people to use it so it becomes a practical platform for payments.
(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote: Honestly I kind of broke my own rule by selling off as much as I did. I basically said I never wanted to fall below 20 btc min.

(07-14-2016 05:44 PM)booshala Wrote: Jeezus, 7% merchant services?? I have a restaurant, and luckily most of the customers pay with debit cards when they're using plastic so the aggregate fee is like 1.14%... What kind of business is it if you don't mind sharing?
(07-14-2016 06:38 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:(07-14-2016 05:44 PM)booshala Wrote: Jeezus, 7% merchant services?? I have a restaurant, and luckily most of the customers pay with debit cards when they're using plastic so the aggregate fee is like 1.14%... What kind of business is it if you don't mind sharing?
Are you sure that you are getting 1.14%?
I understand 7% is high.... and jamaicabound had said something about a high risk business (which could be drug dispensers or something like that).
Anyhow, a lot of the regular merchant services will advertise low rates, and even advertise rates that are below 2% etc; however, a lot of that is bullshit because by the time you add up all the various other bullshit and hidden charges and monthly charges and all the other random and difficult to decipher shit that they throw into your monthly bill, you are lucky to get out of there with a 4% to 6% charges in compared to the amount of items charged. I think that is why some merchants will not take certain credit cards, and American Express is one of the notorious additional charges... But, anyhow, maybe a business that is doing higher volume of transactions will achieve some lower on the spectrum of charges, maybe?
I think that square has become so competitive in the merchant service space because they charge a flat 2.75% fee for everything and any kind of card whether debit or credit, everything is the same, so I would be surprised if you are actually achieving merchant service fees that are beating out square's flat rates...
(07-14-2016 08:03 PM)booshala Wrote:(07-14-2016 06:38 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:(07-14-2016 05:44 PM)booshala Wrote: Jeezus, 7% merchant services?? I have a restaurant, and luckily most of the customers pay with debit cards when they're using plastic so the aggregate fee is like 1.14%... What kind of business is it if you don't mind sharing?
Are you sure that you are getting 1.14%?
I understand 7% is high.... and jamaicabound had said something about a high risk business (which could be drug dispensers or something like that).
Anyhow, a lot of the regular merchant services will advertise low rates, and even advertise rates that are below 2% etc; however, a lot of that is bullshit because by the time you add up all the various other bullshit and hidden charges and monthly charges and all the other random and difficult to decipher shit that they throw into your monthly bill, you are lucky to get out of there with a 4% to 6% charges in compared to the amount of items charged. I think that is why some merchants will not take certain credit cards, and American Express is one of the notorious additional charges... But, anyhow, maybe a business that is doing higher volume of transactions will achieve some lower on the spectrum of charges, maybe?
I think that square has become so competitive in the merchant service space because they charge a flat 2.75% fee for everything and any kind of card whether debit or credit, everything is the same, so I would be surprised if you are actually achieving merchant service fees that are beating out square's flat rates...
Yeah it's roughly 115 basis points after everything... for example if my gross monthly CC revenue is $200k, my merchant fees come out to around $2500-$3000 all in after the garbage fees.
My current provider gunned hard for my business and gave me rock bottom rates to make me switch. After a few months, there were some server shut downs and they felt obligated to cut a lot of the PCI and junk fees out as well. The fee is also very low because 90% of the plastic that comes through is debit which has a very low surcharge.
Square's rates are terrible for my business, I'd never even consider them unless I had some low grossing business like a small cafe or food truck.
(07-14-2016 11:12 PM)nmmoooreland20 Wrote: Really want to buy some Ether on Ethereum, but can never get the chain to fully download. Not using an SSD, so that might be the problem. Anyone else run into this?
(07-16-2016 06:17 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:(07-14-2016 11:12 PM)nmmoooreland20 Wrote: Really want to buy some Ether on Ethereum, but can never get the chain to fully download. Not using an SSD, so that might be the problem. Anyone else run into this?
I think that I may have heard of Ethereum....
It's one of those crypto currencies, no? Kind of like bitcoin, but not?
I kind of recall that there could be some kind of relationship to bitcoin.
(07-16-2016 06:17 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:(07-14-2016 11:12 PM)nmmoooreland20 Wrote: Really want to buy some Ether on Ethereum, but can never get the chain to fully download. Not using an SSD, so that might be the problem. Anyone else run into this?
I think that I may have heard of Ethereum....
It's one of those crypto currencies, no? Kind of like bitcoin, but not?
I kind of recall that there could be some kind of relationship to bitcoin.
(07-18-2016 08:25 AM)nmmoooreland20 Wrote:(07-16-2016 06:17 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:(07-14-2016 11:12 PM)nmmoooreland20 Wrote: Really want to buy some Ether on Ethereum, but can never get the chain to fully download. Not using an SSD, so that might be the problem. Anyone else run into this?
I think that I may have heard of Ethereum....
It's one of those crypto currencies, no? Kind of like bitcoin, but not?
I kind of recall that there could be some kind of relationship to bitcoin.
There is a cryptocurrency component to it ("Ether") but it's also a whole platform for decentralized contracts, and applications overall. I wanted to investing half of my cryptocurrency allocation to Ether, for the larger upside (in my view) and half in bitcoin, but haven't been able to load Ethereum completely on my computer. Did just purchase my stash of BTC though (unfortunately after the bump, since I got busy yesterday).