Post: #1

I am kind of hesitant to post this thread as I can see it turning into a political shouting match.

But then again, someone was going to post it anyways.

Let's try to keep in civil, but I am curious from a non-emotional standpoint, who you guys think is going to win the election.

To keep it on the level, look at it from a betting standpoint.

Who do you guys think will win, and why (not who is the better candidate in your opinion, because let's face it, they all suck)?

Who will win the Republican Nomination?

And do you think whoever that is can beat Obama?

What percentage of the vote do you think each will get?

Post: #2

Republican Primary: Rick Perry.

Primary election: Obama, with ~45% of the vote. Perry, with ~32%, and Ron Paul with around ~10%. Obama wins.

Post: #3

Republican: Romney
President: Romney

If Romney isn't the Republican nominee, Obama wins.

Here's what the market thinks: http://intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84328

Post: #4

Interesting.

Romney seems like kind of an obvious choice, I mean, he kind of looks like a "president" which might be the most important factor in these elections.

However, I think he is going to get bloodied on Health Care and the Mormon thing by the right.

So it is hard for me to envision him pulling it out.

Post: #5

Romney is the only Republican I'd consider even remotely able to win. However, I am not sold his party wants him. With Romney it seems like there is an endless stream of people who keep pushing new candidates. Don't like Bachmann? Here's Perry. Don't like Perry? Maybe we can recruit Christie. Oh, hell, let's just go with Herman Cain.

There's something about Romney that just doesn't catch fire with the GOP electorate. There is a very strong "anyone but Romney" movement. This will become very evident when the test of strength ends and candidates start dropping out. With each candidate who leaves, you're going to see very few of those voters in the next primary state move to Romney. Instead, they will gravitate to whoever is considered the best of the rest.

The big thing Romney needs to do is blow it out of the water early. If he's still scrapping with anyone else after South Carolina, he's toast. Otherwise, he has to pray the others stay in the race and just keep muddying the waters. The downside is, if that plays out somehow, the GOP could end up in a contested convention.

FTR, standing Rick Perry, an incoherent Texas governor, next to Barrack Obama is a formula for the Dems winning a 1964 style election. The last thing the GOP wants is to stand up W 2.0 next to the First Black President ™.

I think the GOP badly underestimates how well Michelle Bachmann could do. She comes off as more stable than her portrayal in the media. And most media attacks against her can be deflected with the gender card. That said, she has zero momentum since Perry got in.

As suddenly incompetent as the GOP has become (the days of Tom Delay and 98% voting loyalty in Congress seem loooong gone), I'd take even money on a contested primary with the Tea Party causing the whole thing to fail in acrimony and not nominate a candidate. The Tea Party ethos, especially at the ground level, is very destructive and anti-everything.

Bear in mind, I am a social liberal-libertarian and a Clinton economic type Dem. Feel free to sprinkle my views with the necessary grains of salt they require. I am rooting for the GOP's barn to burn entirely to the fuckin ground.

Post: #6

I won't be voting again, nor will I be watching TV due to the increase of ads as we near 2012. However, I do enjoy the chaos of elections, especially in Presidential elections. It's like I can almost feel America TRYING to get past their apathy and progress as a country. Difficult to explain but I enjoy the collective unity/disunity of elections. Similar to how I feel the week before the Super Bowl among fans whose teams are involved. The spirit of competition creates a high.

That being said, I believe that the GOP can run out anybody against Obama and win. Of course it won't be that close, but Perry/Romney/Paul, either of the three will beat an incumbent like Obama in a recession.

Post: #7

Is it just me or does it seem like the Democratic base has zero momentum?

It seems like after Obama got elected, the left was so relieved and exhausted that it has no fight left (so to speak).

Obama has been almost exactly like Bush on so many levels that the left again seems like it has no wind in its sales.

Or do you think it is lying in wait and will rise up closer to the election?

Thoughts?

Post: #8

(09-27-2011 12:33 AM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  Is it just me or does it seem like the Democratic base has zero momentum?

I've been a Democrat for so long I can tell you one basically truth about Dems: the Dems attract a lot of young, low information voters who are too fucking dumb to realize how mid-term and municipal elections work.

I've long respected the way the GOP fights for the little stuff. Country seats that control voter rolls. Redistricting. Procedures to control votes in Congress.

The GOP is like a basketball team that fights for rebounds all game long. The Dems are a team that throws up three-pointers and drives the lane, but can't play the physical game for shit on missed shots and eats a lot of blocks.

As a Dem, when you look at things like how operatives like Rollins used to roll hard into New Jersey with dirty money for pastors in the 80s to keep their people home, it makes you just shake your head at how fucking limp the entire Democratic operation is.

That said, never underestimate the value of dumb idealists who think they're fighting evil. I mean, all they did was deprive America of a second Clinton presidency.

Post: #9

Mycleverid, interesting point about Romney vs. the rest. If you're right, it's good for Romney if none of the other candidates bow out, because they're sharing the not-Romney votes.

I'm somewhat sympathetic to the aims of the Tea Party, but in reality, the people who comprise it are idiots. Look at their mouthpieces, like Sarah Palin, Bachmann, Perry, Glenn Beck... Mainstream conservatism is just a pusillanimous series of compromises with liberalism and neoconservatism.

Perry is an idiotic phony conservative, Bachmann is unstable and untrustworthy - the moment I read she promised $2 gasoline, I wrote her off completely. Christie is only fiscally conservative. Cain is interesting, but seems gimmicky and unserious. Ron Paul is visibly insane (though his son is promising). Santorum is promising, but he's yet to experience much success.

Romney is presidential, very intelligent, and reasonably conservative. I'm not sure that Romney will win, but I'm pretty sure he's the only one who can. I'm very happy that Perry's star is falling, and I hope it continues. IMO, given the alternatives, the tea party disdain for Romney is wildly irrational. No one else has a better chance of winning, and it's not clear that Romney is much less conservative than the alternatives.

(09-27-2011 12:33 AM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  Is it just me or does it seem like the Democratic base has zero momentum?

It seems like after Obama got elected, the left was so relieved and exhausted that it has no fight left (so to speak).

Obama has been almost exactly like Bush on so many levels that the left again seems like it has no wind in its sales.

Or do you think it is lying in wait and will rise up closer to the election?

Thoughts?

I almost feel bad for the guy, because there's no way he could have lived up to the hype. I had never seen people so animated by a mere political election. All these liberals were convinced their lives were indelibly changed for the better.

Another problem is that so much of the 'opposition' in this country is totally fucking phony. People only object to a policy when it's not their party running the government. Obama enters office, and all the liberals quit protesting the war. Bush enters office, fiscal conservatism goes out the window. Both sides get so drunk with power they can't remain loyal to their principles, to the very ideas for which they campaigned. Only the people who have given up on mainstream credibility buck their party for principle. Eg, see http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arch...on/244103/ .

One of my favorite writers said that McCain's loss in 2008 was essential for keeping conservatism alive in America. Had he won, mainstream conservatives, rubes that they are, would tie themselves in knots defending McCain's non-conservative positions. There would be no room left for a conservative Republican voice.

And Christie is way too fat. Fat chicks already feel way too good about themselves.

Post: #10

Rep ticket - Perry\Cain

Obama will win a second term

Post: #11

it depends on whether or not Christie runs - he will win the nomination if he runs. A week ago I thought Perry was going to win but now I think he's toast. I'm starting to think Herman Cain is going to start flying up the polls. He's saying all the right things for a country that is sick of the old shit.

Post: #12

Ron Paul !!!

Post: #13

(09-27-2011 10:44 AM)Brian Wrote:  A week ago I thought Perry was going to win but now I think he's toast.

Man . . . in politics, you can't ride the highs and the lows too much.

Looking back at the 2008 Dem primary, one of the more impressive things about Obama was how he handled the ups and downs. All along his people had an analysis showing from February to the convention that they had a narrow advantage. They didn't freak, they stuck to their plan and their math, and they won.

The biggest problem for the GOP brand is what happens if all this descends into disarray. That would feed heavily into the existing narrative about the Tea Party. And considering the Tea Party will primary and nuke more GOP candidates in the House and Senate, there will come a point where the general public starts to wonder just what the hell the Republicans are doing.

The Republicans used to be good at projecting unity for the cameras. They have a lot riding on the 2012 convention.

Post: #14

I sometimes think there is no way for Obama to win.

But then when I see and think about him up on stage VS Romney, Perry or even Christie, I think he looks pretty damn good.

He is the "brand" recognition, and he still is a pretty damn good "fiery" speaker.

Post: #15

I dont think its really riding the highs and lows w/Perry, its more that he was leading w/o really doing anything and once he had to perform he didnt perform so well. Also, if you look back at many of the past primaries its quite common for the person that ultimately won to be nowhere near the top 12-18 months out. Romney will be around for awhile because he is steady and consistent but I wouldnt be surprised at all if Cain or Christie (if he runs) won because their messages and themes (cut spending, anti government) are going to be the themes that people want to hear given the current circumstances.

Post: #16

(09-27-2011 11:35 AM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  I sometimes think there is no way for Obama to win.

But then when I see and think about him up on stage VS Romney, Perry or even Christie, I think he looks pretty damn good.

He is the "brand" recognition, and he still is a pretty damn good "fiery" speaker.

If Obama wins this country is officially toast. We will be broker then Greece before 2014. And if you dont think he can win consider the majority of American voters are morons. That being said, I think the economy will continue to decline and I think Romney, Christie, and Cain would do very well in a debate vs. Obama. Perry I'm not so sure about. But Christie would shred him like he does the idiots in the teachers union. Cain would be able to take a lot of the black vote, and both he and Romney have some actual real world business experience.

Post: #17

"And if you dont think he can win consider the majority of American voters are morons."

The "moron factor" is a tricky one to predict.

It seems they vote on both sides.

Post: #18

(09-27-2011 11:07 AM)mycleverid Wrote:  Man . . . in politics, you can't ride the highs and the lows too much.

Looking back at the 2008 Dem primary, one of the more impressive things about Obama was how he handled the ups and downs. All along his people had an analysis showing from February to the convention that they had a narrow advantage. They didn't freak, they stuck to their plan and their math, and they won.

There weren't mountains and valleys for Obama really. He started off as the charming underdog. Hillary Clinton had the overwhelming support of the liberal establishment. But as the primaries inched closer, Obama's camp grew in size and fervor, and became hugely popular at Clinton's expense.

Christie has no class. I couldn't stomach voting for him. It would be funny seeing Cain debating Obama. Cain's got a strong style. Reminds me a little of Phillip Banks.

Post: #19

I dont think its fair to say Christie has no class. He just doesnt kiss the ass of all the people out there who think they deserve it.

That being said, Christie isnt running.

Post: #20

(09-27-2011 12:18 PM)Brian Wrote:  I dont think its fair to say Christie has no class. He just doesnt kiss the ass of all the people out there who think they deserve it.

That being said, Christie isnt running.

He is a prole. He says things like "Get the hell off the beach," sans tie, as the sitting governor of New Jersey. I believe our leaders should inspire us to greatness, not make us comfortable with our own mediocrity. He looks like



Then again, Americans are obsessed with having a leader they could 'have a beer with.' And most Americans are overweight...

If you want to kick ass with class, see Enoch Powell.

Post: #21

I predict things will get weird on the GOP side. Palin will enter the race in October. Yes, she's a hillbilly nutjob, but country people (read: Tea Partiers) love her. The GOP primary schedule goes through states that house a lot of her supporters. Palin has her own political action committee and won't be hurting for money during the primaries. I predict Palin and Romney as the top two with Ron Paul running third.

Romney can't win over the GOP base because of the "two 'M's." He's Mormon and from Massachusetts. That's a tough sell to primary voters in the south and in flyover states who are usually more conservative than your mainstream Republican.

Paul will continue to be ignored by the mainstream media. I'd be very surprised if he ran as a third party as Paul is more about the Libertarian movement than about gaining power. Running as a third party would hand Obama a second term and Paul knows this. Paul is setting the ideological table for polished Libertarian politician in the future.

In a general election, as most of us know, Palin can't connect with a majority of Americans. Anyone in a big city, any minorities, any modern American feminist, anyone with critically-thinking mind will shun her. Despite the lousy economy, the numbers just don't add up for Palin. Even if they did...

Never bet against a politician who cut his teeth in the City of Chicago. For all of his current problems, Obama is a top-flight campaigner who will act the part of competent, charismatic, problem-solver one more time to hold on for a second term.

Post: #22

(09-27-2011 12:18 PM)Brian Wrote:  I dont think its fair to say Christie has no class. He just doesnt kiss the ass of all the people out there who think they deserve it.

That being said, Christie isnt running.

He's physically disgusting. This is all about TV.

The Repubs have become so blatantly a single-issue party, totally for the rich -- 'no more taxes no matter what' to the exclusion of any other issue-- there's really nothing for them to campaign on but that.

Obama nailed Osama, kept the wars going for the hawks, so defense isn't a weakness.

Wild how the central point apparently how they found the civilian murdering POS was that the house had NO INTERNET and I think no phone.

You could speculate that W's staff wouldn't be moderninity oriented enough to be looking for that, to spot that.

I'm a full on pinko, I was hoping we'd have some real class warfare besides the slow bleeding of the bottom 80% for the top 1%

Obama wins. Clearly so much smarter, and also more cold as a leader of a great nation needs to be.
Now if the Repubs still had someone with some class, like Eisenhower, and campaigned on genuine economic conservatism instead of acting as the PR arm of the kleptocrats, there might be a race.

But then they all wouldn't be getting massive money from the War Machine.

Post: #23

If someone gets elected who claims it was "God's will", I'm expatriating immediately.

If Obama wins, I'm expatriating at a slightly more leisurely pace.

Post: #24

(09-27-2011 12:51 PM)basilransom Wrote:  

(09-27-2011 12:18 PM)Brian Wrote:  I dont think its fair to say Christie has no class. He just doesnt kiss the ass of all the people out there who think they deserve it.

That being said, Christie isnt running.

He is a prole. He says things like "Get the hell off the beach," sans tie, as the sitting governor of New Jersey. I believe our leaders should inspire us to greatness, not make us comfortable with our own mediocrity. He looks like



Then again, Americans are obsessed with having a leader they could 'have a beer with.' And most Americans are overweight...

If you want to kick ass with class, see Enoch Powell.

If Christie goes with a "I am fat. You the American People are fat. Let's all be fat together!!!" campaign slogan, I think he would win by a landslide (so to speak).

Post: #25

if Christie went with "we're broke, lets face reality and deal with the problem" like he did in NJ he'd win. granted he's fat but so is most of America, and most Americans are much more concerned with the fact that are 15 Trillion deficit is growing exponentially then what the President weighs.

Obama will go down as one of, if not the, worst presidents ever.