(06-03-2014 07:09 PM)pants Wrote:  Anyone picked up some darkcoins?
If they actually adds another layer of anonymity, I assume they will go a lot higher than where they are atm.

My understanding has been that darkcoins were pre-mined to some extent, which likely places them in the pump and dump category, rather than having a solid and serious long term potential.

NONETHELESS, there may still be considerable upside potential with darkcoin... if they are able to build network momentum.

Certainly, I do NOT proclaim to be any alt-currency expert, and here, I am just repeating what I believe to be the case regarding the darkcoin situation.

Pants: Did you pick up some darkcoins?

(06-04-2014 01:05 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(06-03-2014 02:27 PM)strengthstudent Wrote:  Apple news is huge and it is hitting mainstream now.

I don't think we will stay in 600$...

I just went to the Apple website, and I have NOT yet seen any new apps, yet. I suppose it may take a few weeks for new apps to be approved in the event that the Apple policy clarification really means that they are going to be more accepting of crypto-currency money transmitting and storage apps.

(06-03-2014 04:08 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  If Apple gets involved here we'll see 1000+ BTC again soon as the hipsters will start buying it with their parents money.

This Apple clarification that seems to be an expansion of crypto application acceptance does seem like pretty big deal, yet I question whether there is going to be any short term positive price effects. Well, maybe I am cheating b/c some time has already passed since the news came out and the price went down. Nonetheless, my thoughts were the same as soon as I heard the news that it was NOT going to be big enough news to cause any kind of BTC price rally.

Nonetheless, there seems to be multiple positive news and developments in the bitcoin space.. .and the general positive direction in the bitcoin prices over the past few weeks. Of course, we are going to witness ups and downs in price b/c there is NO straight lines in any market.

Actually, I was thinking that one way to determine that Apple had reverted its policy to be more accepting of various bitcoin transmitting and/or storage applications would be to see the Coinbase app returned to the store, or the Blockchain app (I have both of those apps on my IPhone before they were removed from the app store). Those two apps, for example, have already been developed, but as of today's date, they have NOT yet returned to the app store.

There may be some other apps that have already been developed or that are new that would be good indicators that Apple is paying more than just lip service to a more accepting policy towards crypto apps.

One thing that remains puzzling about reading these particular tea leaves about what Apple did, or about what Apple is going to do, or about Apple's future disposition towards various crypto applications is that I have NOT heard about Apple making any clear and/or unambiguous direct statements regarding its policies in this direction - and coyness seems to be one of Apple's character traits.

just received an email from Circle

(06-04-2014 08:41 PM)brg444 Wrote:  just received an email from Circle

I got that e-mail, too, so I suppose the e-mail confirms that Circle still has us on their invite list.

Someone else can chime in to answer this if they want, but i am of the sense that currently, BTC is priced through exchanges, and whatever price pressures that are made through the exchanges by various forces who have BTC or fiat to bring to bear on the price.

Even though some BTC transactions take place off of the exchanges (and likely use exchange prices to determine rates), those off exchange BTC transactions, sooner or later, make their way onto the exchanges.

Also there is the dynamics of stolen coins or bots or fake coins or news, public sentiment, public knowledge or governmental regulatory pressures controlling prices, but those dynamics should also be reflected in the exchange activities.

(06-05-2014 01:31 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.0268v1.pdf

HOLY FUCK!!!

I quickly perused the paper, and I am NOT sure whether that paper is conclusive in answering any questions about how bitcoin achieves its price(s).

The paper is highly technical and academic, and I am unclear whether I agree with its various conclusions b/c the author seems to limit the paper's discussion to certain aspects of the influences on bitcoin and fails to discuss other aspects of the influences on bitcoin.

If anyone else believes the paper answers the question about bitcoin price or the future of bitcoin, then pray tell.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000281677

Ebay CEO owns bitcoins

(06-05-2014 08:05 AM)brg444 Wrote:  http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000281677

Ebay CEO owns bitcoins

When the eBay integration of bitcoin is announced we should see a serious uptick in the price of BTC.

Same with paypal integration of bitcoin

Both will happen probably this year.

(06-05-2014 01:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(06-05-2014 01:31 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.0268v1.pdf

HOLY FUCK!!!

I quickly perused the paper, and I am NOT sure whether that paper is conclusive in answering any questions about how bitcoin achieves its price(s).

The paper is highly technical and academic, and I am unclear whether I agree with its various conclusions b/c the author seems to limit the paper's discussion to certain aspects of the influences on bitcoin and fails to discuss other aspects of the influences on bitcoin.

If anyone else believes the paper answers the question about bitcoin price or the future of bitcoin, then pray tell.

Honestly I didn't read more than the topics myself. If you've read it JJG maybe you could break it down a little.


The market fundamentals isn't that hard to understand. More buyers than sellers, price go up. More seller than buyers, price go down.

(06-05-2014 12:47 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(06-05-2014 01:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(06-05-2014 01:31 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.0268v1.pdf

HOLY FUCK!!!

I quickly perused the paper, and I am NOT sure whether that paper is conclusive in answering any questions about how bitcoin achieves its price(s).

The paper is highly technical and academic, and I am unclear whether I agree with its various conclusions b/c the author seems to limit the paper's discussion to certain aspects of the influences on bitcoin and fails to discuss other aspects of the influences on bitcoin.

If anyone else believes the paper answers the question about bitcoin price or the future of bitcoin, then pray tell.

Honestly I didn't read more than the topics myself. If you've read it JJG maybe you could break it down a little.


The market fundamentals isn't that hard to understand. More buyers than sellers, price go up. More seller than buyers, price go down.

Believe it or NOT, even though it may sometimes seem that I am spending 24/7 on bitcoin/crypto coin research, I ONLY have so much time each day to be able to read some of these kinds of materials.

Don't get me wrong, I do appreciate the article, and that the article shares a perspective regarding bitcoin, and I do NOT really claim to understand all of the points of the article. In that regard, other people may come to conclusions that differ from my perusing the article.

When I read claims in the article, such as, the Chinese BTC market does NOT affect the USD bitcoin market, I give less credibility to the article, and I feel less inclined to thoroughly read such articles in close detail.

Also, this particular article claims that bitcoin is NOT a safe haven for storing value, so in that regard, the article seems inadequately account for diversification of assets investing (which many more sophisticated investors are going to diversify their value storage to some extent, and consider probabilities of pay outs for various classes of investments). Bitcoin may be risky, but as a diversified asset, there is considerable possibilities for storing value and for paying off.

The article does NOT really get into much of the dynamics of the affects of the political and the regulatory attempts and the difficulties and potential underlying hostilities that have existed with bitcoin b/c of the difficulties of governments and or other status quo institutions, such as banks, in controlling the peer to peer nature of bitcoin. In this regard, the article lacks discussion of the threats to the status quo regarding potential wealth redistribution.

I find too much emphasis and attempt to emphasize mathematics to achieve validity of claims, when in fact the mathematics of the dynamics of bitcoin need to be taken with a grain of salt, given the other political and other human dynamics that are involved in markets that are NOT strictly predictable in mathematic terms....

NONETHELESS, I do appreciate some of the mathematical discussions that are involved with Metcalfe's law.. and Metcalfe's law predicts some of the exponential potential of bitcoin pricing and value and utility based on adoption and the networking effect causing exponential growth b/c of increased bitcoin adoption.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law

Though the article makes some mentions of increased interest in bitcoin, the article does NOT really get into any kind of specific discussion of the impact of metcalfe's law or the networking effect on the dynamics of bitcoin.

Additionally, even though this particular article is published on 6/2/14, some of its graphs and claims date back to the status of the bitcoin market between September 2011 and February 2014, which causes me some hesitation about thoroughness of the claims.

JJG, no I did not buy any DarkCoins, would have if I was still as interested in crypty as I was a year ago. Not saying I believe anything less now, when CEO of Ebay hints about bitcoin integration, it is time to buy.


This video got me some of my stoke back!

(06-05-2014 07:48 PM)pants Wrote:  JJG, no I did not buy any DarkCoins, would have if I was still as interested in crypty as I was a year ago. Not saying I believe anything less now, when CEO of Ebay hints about bitcoin integration, it is time to buy.

You started this thread over a year ago, and certainly there have been both upward and downward trends in bitcoin prices, during that time.

The March 2013 bubble and the November 2013 bubble were events that brought considerable public attention to bitcoin. Certainly, it will be interesting to witness whether we are going to have a 2014 bubble, and when that will be... .- if it takes place.

During the downward price trends, it surely can cause anxiety concerning whether or if bitcoin prices are going to rise again.... Hopefully, by no later than August or September, we will have some big movements upward in bitcoin prices - though no one really knows.

To the extent that whales force the price down, there remains a question for how long they can keep the price down before the price just booms upward. Yet, the upward price boom is NOT guaranteed, even though it is anticipated.

There are probably around 1 million bitcoins for which are unaccounted (600k Gox coins and various seized coins seized by US govt), and nearly 1 million coins held in satoshi's accounts. Either of those BTC stashes could be used for nefarious purposes, though doubtful that the satoshi stash would be used in any way to negatively affect bitcoin prices or stability.

About 1/3 of my expected lump sum fiat has arrived in my account... which is about $20K. I'm thinking to split this fiat into 3 purchases of 10BTC each. So If I buy the first 10BTC, $648 is the rate on coinbase. Surely, if I can rest assured that the price is gonna get cheaper, then I will wait to buy more, but I get too nervous waiting.

No one ever really knows for sure where the BTC price is going to go... and we gotta be careful about being greedy, especially when the price seems poised to go up.... so if I buy the first 10 BTC, then go to sleep, wake up see where the price is at and maybe buy the next 10 BTC? Then wait a few hours and then buy the next 10BTC? That's about what I believe I can get for $20K, at the current price.. right around 30BTC..

People expect we are on the edge of the next bubble. Even if we are not, the expectation of people might make it real. According to the previous bubble charts, we should be in the "flat-phase" from ½ month to 2 months.

http://i.imgur.com/fzzVrGp.png

(06-09-2014 04:45 AM)strengthstudent Wrote:  People expect we are on the edge of the next bubble. Even if we are not, the expectation of people might make it real. According to the previous bubble charts, we should be in the "flat-phase" from ½ month to 2 months.

http://i.imgur.com/fzzVrGp.png

I had seen those charts, too, and I was thinking that the charts were a reasonable depiction of the current state of affairs and expectations in BTC land.

Yes, we know that there is a possibility that something quite divergent may occur, but that projection within those charts seems to be as reasonable, if NOT more reasonable, then other possibilities.

So I am expecting a total of $60k to come in my direction (not sure when exactly). I received $20k in my bank account a few hours ago.... and I am thinking of just making my BTC purchases with the fiat that I have at my disposal in thirds... within the next day or so...

I cannot see any decent rationale to protract my purchase of BTC (especially at current prices and with current pressures)... and especially also since I am expecting some more fiat to come my way.. and I would NOT want to miss an opportunity to buy some BTC NOW at these prices when they seem likely to go to $700 or more in the near future.

Seems to following my prediction so far.

Bumping its head on resistance at $660

(06-09-2014 07:47 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  Seems to following my prediction so far.

Bumping its head on resistance at $660

To be more direct: This post (and your several other posts making similar assertions) makes nearly NO sense concerning a supposed predictive ability when it comes to BTC prices.

^ lol yes but they're where he wants it be so makes perfect sense.

I predict 691 as a high and I will sell all my shit cause I'm bored. Unless it goes past 800 then I will frantically buy back in.

(06-09-2014 08:36 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ lol yes but they're where he wants it be so makes perfect sense.

I predict 691 as a high and I will sell all my shit cause I'm bored. Unless it goes past 800 then I will frantically buy back in.

I have NO problem with BTC predictions or projections or making plans about what to do regarding buying, selling or hodling, and I am guilty of making various kinds of predictions of BTC price direction(s) on a frequent basis and even changing my predictions based on ongoing BTC price movements.

On the other hand, i see no real purpose to assert the extent to which my prediction is correct, yet I know several guys have a tendency to make those kinds of proclamations.

Regarding UR plan to remove yourself from the BTC fun: you seem to be betting that there is NO real long-term security in BTC, and accordingly, you would prefer to put your fiat somewhere else or to spend it.

Your expectation(s) about the direction of BTC could be true; however, I am of the belief that BTC remains a fairly decent investment vehicle, in the whole scheme of possible investments.... and at the moment, I see NO real reason NOT to ride this bad boy for a couple more years - especially given the continued developments of the bitcoin space. I really do NOT recognize any meaningful downfall bitcoin, even though there has been manipulation and even though there has been a few troubling events in the past 6-7 months. I remain of the view that the positive potential outweighs the negative, yet if some better investment comes along, I would NOT be opposed to transferring some or all of my bitcoin investment into that better investment, so long as I recognize such.

Either one of us could be correct about the direction of BTC, yet I recall you stating several times, that you were more of the trading inclination regarding your BTC involvement, rather than a longer-term HODLER.

Really to me, it does NOT matter too much whether a guy chooses to play short-term or to bet long-term or which one of the guys is correct about the most prudent course of action regarding BTC investment(s) b/c either way, each of us is making a choice for himself about how to invest his money and/or time.

What's your timeline for the expected $691 and exit, within the next week or two? Actually, BTC has already been at that $691 price point on bitstamp recently, in the past couple of weeks; however, I imagine you are projecting BTC-e prices - for your exit price?

On the other hand, if you put your sell order in on BTC-e at $691 (or some price point of that range), then do you get BTC-e to send you your fiat, or do you have another means to convert from BTC into fiat or are you going to convert into some alternative crypto investment?

(06-09-2014 09:05 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(06-09-2014 08:36 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ lol yes but they're where he wants it be so makes perfect sense.

I predict 691 as a high and I will sell all my shit cause I'm bored. Unless it goes past 800 then I will frantically buy back in.

I have NO problem with BTC predictions or projections or making plans about what to do regarding buying, selling or hodling, and I am guilty of making various kinds of predictions of BTC price direction(s) on a frequent basis and even changing my predictions based on ongoing BTC price movements.

On the other hand, i see no real purpose to assert the extent to which my prediction is correct, yet I know several guys have a tendency to make those kinds of proclamations.

Regarding UR plan to remove yourself from the BTC fun: you seem to be betting that there is NO real long-term security in BTC, and accordingly, you would prefer to put your fiat somewhere else or to spend it.

Your expectation(s) about the direction of BTC could be true; however, I am of the belief that BTC remains a fairly decent investment vehicle, in the whole scheme of possible investments.... and at the moment, I see NO real reason NOT to ride this bad boy for a couple more years - especially given the continued developments of the bitcoin space. I really do NOT recognize any meaningful downfall bitcoin, even though there has been manipulation and even though there has been a few troubling events in the past 6-7 months. I remain of the view that the positive potential outweighs the negative, yet if some better investment comes along, I would NOT be opposed to transferring some or all of my bitcoin investment into that better investment, so long as I recognize such.

Either one of us could be correct about the direction of BTC, yet I recall you stating several times, that you were more of the trading inclination regarding your BTC involvement, rather than a longer-term HODLER.

Really to me, it does NOT matter too much whether a guy chooses to play short-term or to bet long-term or which one of the guys is correct about the most prudent course of action regarding BTC investment(s) b/c either way, each of us is making a choice for himself about how to invest his money and/or time.

What's your timeline for the expected $691 and exit, within the next week or two? Actually, BTC has already been at that $691 price point on bitstamp recently, in the past couple of weeks; however, I imagine you are projecting BTC-e prices - for your exit price?

On the other hand, if you put your sell order in on BTC-e at $691 (or some price point of that range), then do you get BTC-e to send you your fiat, or do you have another means to convert from BTC into fiat or are you going to convert into some alternative crypto investment?

By the way, I am thinking that I will be rewarding myself with a RVF gold membership when BTC reaches $750-ish... Don't hold me to an exact number b/c if BTC prices are moving rapidly, then I may be engaging in some trading...

Personally, at this point, I am projecting that we may dabble in the $600 to $700 BTC price range for a few weeks and maybe up to a month, then BTC prices will go up to $750 to $850 for another month or two, and maybe even flash crash down into the $600s, and then will have our next bubble into the $3,000 to $5,000 arena, somewhere around or before mid-2015. Who knows for sure, but that is my current thinking about the direction of BTC prices based on recent BTC price performance and recent BTC news and developments.

(06-09-2014 08:05 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  To be more direct: This post (and your several other posts making similar assertions) makes nearly NO sense concerning a supposed predictive ability when it comes to BTC prices.

First of all I make no assertions to my predictive ability. Like everyone else I am just speculating as to the short term movement of the price. If we pool our collective insight we should be able to trade the movements better. You have a problem with this concept?

When it was 600 I predicted it would bump its head trying to break above 660 and bobble around the 660 mark for a little while.

That's exactly what it has done this week.

If someone were able to accurately tell me what BTC price is gonna do a even one week in advance I would appreciate it - not post an ego offended bitchy post.

Where it breaks from when this pattern of hovering around 660 end I really don't know but hey, if you get so ego offended by a correct prediction of short term behaviour then I guess you must be the real genius so over to you.

(06-09-2014 09:51 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  

(06-09-2014 08:05 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  To be more direct: This post (and your several other posts making similar assertions) makes nearly NO sense concerning a supposed predictive ability when it comes to BTC prices.

First of all I make no assertions to my predictive ability. Like everyone else I am just speculating as to the short term movement of the price. If we pool our collective insight we should be able to trade the movements better. You have a problem with this concept?

When it was 600 I predicted it would bump its head trying to break above 660 and bobble around the 660 mark for a little while.

That's exactly what it has done this week.

If someone were able to accurately tell me what BTC price is gonna do a even one week in advance I would appreciate it - not post an ego offended bitchy post.

Where it breaks from when this pattern of hovering around 660 end I really don't know but hey, if you get so ego offended by a correct prediction of short term behaviour then I guess you must be the real genius so over to you.

I already said that I have NO problem with attempts to make BTC price predictions.

I believe that predictions and prognosticating and the sharing of information and speculation concerning the direction of BTC prices and/or related BTC infrastructure or even alternative crypto currencies can be very helpful for anyone reading or participating in this thread.

Your three or more posts regarding your getting right a BTC prediction or a set of predictions regarding a supposed $660 BTC gravitation point seemed to be quite another story... Maybe there really is some kind of $660 gravitation point, yet I do NOT see it, except for possibly some attempt at a self-fulfilling prophecy, nor do I see much of any added value in repeating several times that you predicted it?

As El Mech suggested, there could be some possible value contained in the post.... yet I remain puzzled, specifically about the value therein...

If other RVF members find utility in those about three posts of yours declaring your BTC price predictive powers, then who am I to question such appreciation that may exist among the membership?

JJG did you buy your 30BTC already? You could put targets like if price drops to $590 $570 and $550 you'll buy 10BTC at each target... And also have some upper roof.. If price touches $700 you'll go all in straight away. What's your strategy?

(06-11-2014 03:35 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  JJG did you buy your 30BTC already? You could put targets like if price drops to $590 $570 and $550 you'll buy 10BTC at each target... And also have some upper roof.. If price touches $700 you'll go all in straight away. What's your strategy?

I understand what you are saying, yet I lack some confidence that prices are going to get that low.. and I get anxious.


Over the last few days, I bought BTC in three increments in the $640s... of about 21BTC in total.

It seems that I have about $6,600 to $6,900 remaining in my BTC investment budget, until my next fiat comes in.

I have been getting the sense that BTC prices are dropping; however, I am a little afraid that BTC prices may NOT go into the $500s... Not sure... of course.

I also need to place my orders manually b/c I use Coinbase.

Maybe with this remaining $6,600 to $6,900 I can place orders in thirds... Maybe $2,200 in the $620s and then $2,200 in the $610s... and still have $2,200 in reserve in case BTC prices go lower....

Of course if I had some confidence that BTC prices were going to go lower, then I would wait for the lower price.

Whenever I get some extra fiat, I get a little anxious about having my holdings in fiat and missing the train. On the other hand, maybe some or all of my new fiat that will be coming in will reach me in the event that BTC prices go lower over the next 2-6 weeks.