(02-21-2014 09:15 PM)Hencredible Casanova Wrote: If you're implying that Syria exports more oil than Sudan, then that is incorrect.Syria is important to Russia because of the pipelines that run through it. The same with Iran. Russia has been very successful in the past 5 years at controlling all of the oil transit into the EU, thereby guaranteeing our future revenue from oil and gas sales.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cou...il_exports
In fact, one of the main contentious issues between Sudan and South Sudan is that the only way for South Sudan to export its oil is through Sudan's pipelines that go out to Port Sudan where it's shipped out.
As for no one being interested in Sudan, that's not true. Its leader (dictator) Omar Al-Bashir has a warrant out for his arrest from the International Criminal Court (ICC) because of alleged war crimes in Darfur. It's so bad that when he recently flew to China for a meeting with its leadership, he had to stop his presidential plane in Iran and figure out a new route because many countries in Central Asia would not allow his plane in their airspace because of the existing warrant.
Also, he's had to nix UN appearances for fear he might be arrested if he showed up in New York.
China and other countries have major economic investments in Sudan related to its oil. That's Sudan's top export.
Also, Russia has vast quantities of oil and natural gas to meet its energy needs entirely. It doesn't require energy imports and is a net exporter.
Ethiopia is a key player in the Horn of Africa. It has the largest population in Africa after Nigeria. It receives vast sums of western aid, both economic and military. Its capital is the seat of the African Union.
Ethiopia is also a longstanding US ally, having been an ancient Christian nation in a region of hostile actors. For example, the US used Ethiopia as a proxy to invade Somalia in an effort to root Al-Shabab a few years ago. Ethiopia also allows US drones to fly over its airspace to spy and attack terrorists in Somalia.
(02-21-2014 09:15 PM)Hencredible Casanova Wrote: I've never heard that Putin was misquoted when he said that. Even then, I don't think the collapse of the Soviet Union was as severe to Russia as the loss of lives it incurred during WWII, let alone the myriad other events in the 20th century at large (i.e. Holocaust).Then you probably didn't watch the national address that the quote came from...
Quote:I consider the development of Russia as a free and democratic state to be our main political and ideological goal. We use these words fairly frequently, but rarely care to reveal how the deeper meaning of such values as freedom and democracy, justice and legality is translated into life.http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2...7086.shtml
Meanwhile, there is a need for such an analysis. The objectively difficult processes going on in Russia are increasingly becoming the subject of heated ideological discussions. And they are all connected with talk about freedom and democracy. Sometimes you can hear that since the Russian people have been silent for centuries, they are not used to or do not need freedom. And for that reason, it is claimed our citizens need constant supervision.
I would like to bring those who think this way back to reality, to the facts. To do so, I will recall once more Russia’s most recent history.
Above all, we should acknowledge that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century. As for the Russian nation, it became a genuine drama. Tens of millions of our co-citizens and compatriots found themselves outside Russian territory. Moreover, the epidemic of disintegration infected Russia itself.
Individual savings were depreciated, and old ideals destroyed. Many institutions were disbanded or reformed carelessly. Terrorist intervention and the Khasavyurt capitulation that followed damaged the country's integrity. Oligarchic groups – possessing absolute control over information channels – served exclusively their own corporate interests. Mass poverty began to be seen as the norm. And all this was happening against the backdrop of a dramatic economic downturn, unstable finances, and the paralysis of the social sphere.
(02-21-2014 09:15 PM)Hencredible Casanova Wrote: Many Russian youth despise Putin and his dictatorship. I'm not saying Russia wants to be European or part of the EU, but I think if Ukraine were to have an association with the EU, so would Russia eventually.Putin was hated among some groups of young people for a short period of time, but that phase has passed. Anyone who is in the country knows that. Actually, Russians don't care a lot about politics; only about what directly affects them.
(02-21-2014 09:15 PM)Hencredible Casanova Wrote: Polish-American statesman Zbigniew Brzeinski was on Charlie Rose saying the same thing.That's the same rhetoric he's been spinning for the past 30 years. His job was to come up with strategies to bring down Russia, and he was successful at it. Now the game is different but he hasn't updated his ideology. He's still talking about power spheres and missing the point that the game is now hydrocarbons and trade.
(02-21-2014 10:44 PM)rastignac Wrote: I have been looking at the Ukrainian ethnic and linguistic demographics available on Wikipedia and I invite others to if you want detail. It is tempting to round up to 50/50 to explain the countries linguistic and ethnic splits but it isn't quite right.IF you look you wil lsee Odessa the city is very dark. means Russia nspeaking. The Odessa region is pro Russian, but there are Romanian, Bulgarian, and Moldovan speakers in the oblast.
Ethnicity
- Nationally, less than 18% of the people are ethnically Russian. almost 78 (77.8)% are Ukrainian ethnically. (I have no idea how these surveys dealt with race mixtures, which are so common in FSU.) Well below 50/50.
- The only regions with a majority Russian ethnic population is Crimea. There, less than a third (24.3%) of the people are ethnic Ukrainians.
- The other regions with strong Russian ethnic populations are Lugansk, Donetsk and Odessa, but each is still majority (56-63%) ethnic Ukrainian.
- Other regions where Yanukovich (like Kharkiv) did well were 70-80% ethnically Ukrainian. Regions where he did poorly are on average 90% Ukrainian.
Language
- Folks have pointed out here that Russian is the language of cities, of business and culture. Ukrainian is a peasant language. This is probably the most important fact. The exception, to my experience, is Lviv where the language of the city (and culture) is Ukrainian.
- Historically (in the immediately pre-Soviet era), Ukrainians, speaking Ukrainian, were poor peasants. The cities were strongly Jewish (business) and either Polish, Austrian or Russian (depending on which country was ruling or administering Ukraine at the time.
Spoke Ukrainian at home:
Spoke Russian at home:
- Native language - the language you used in your home - is majority Russian only in Crimea (77%), Lugansk (68%) and Donetsk (75%). In places like Odessa, Dnipropretovsk and Kharkiv region it is strong but still below half. In the major cities it is strong.
From the board perspective, we can of course only counsel people to learn Russian. It is the language of the cities (the dark brown dots on the map). Ukrainian might be good for "village game" but damn, that seems like a lot of work! Girls are conservative.
Voting demographics (age and region) would be another discussion.
(02-21-2014 11:24 PM)jimukr104 Wrote: IF you look you wil lsee Odessa the city is very dark. means Russia nspeaking. The Odessa region is pro Russian, but there are Romanian, Bulgarian, and Moldovan speakers in the oblast.I think he was talking about Odessa Oblast, because the city itself is definitely Russian speaking. I had to read it a few times to pick that up.
(02-21-2014 11:24 PM)jimukr104 Wrote: Whats the difference between a Russian and Ukrainian? Its not a separate race.The eastern Slav ethnic group is a mixture of different cultures... hence why Hitler considered subhuman,.The Slav is already a mix, there is really no difference between a belarussian, Russian or Ukrainian.. its seems it more of a designation based on geographic locationThat's one of the larger problems with the surveys that data is based on. What will they answer if you ask "Кто Вы по-национальности?" I think the answer will usually be whatever the cover of their passport says.
(02-21-2014 11:49 PM)DaveR Wrote:Exactly... many of the immigrants to NYC from Ukraine who came right after the break up even will say they are Russian if asked.(02-21-2014 11:24 PM)jimukr104 Wrote: IF you look you wil lsee Odessa the city is very dark. means Russia nspeaking. The Odessa region is pro Russian, but there are Romanian, Bulgarian, and Moldovan speakers in the oblast.I think he was talking about Odessa Oblast, because the city itself is definitely Russian speaking. I had to read it a few times to pick that up.
(02-21-2014 11:24 PM)jimukr104 Wrote: Whats the difference between a Russian and Ukrainian? Its not a separate race.The eastern Slav ethnic group is a mixture of different cultures... hence why Hitler considered subhuman,.The Slav is already a mix, there is really no difference between a belarussian, Russian or Ukrainian.. its seems it more of a designation based on geographic locationThat's one of the larger problems with the surveys that data is based on. What will they answer if you ask "Кто Вы по-национальности?" I think the answer will usually be whatever the cover of their passport says.
Then you have the issue of determining what "Ukrainian" nationality is. Clearly there are a lot of differences between a L'vov Ukrainian and a Donetsk Ukrainian.
What about bilingualism and mixed languages? A lot of people in the Donbas say they speak Ukrainian, but it's actually Surzhik - they speak Russian with a Ukrainian accent and Ukrainian words mixed in.
(02-22-2014 12:07 AM)jimukr104 Wrote:(02-21-2014 11:49 PM)DaveR Wrote:Exactly... many of the immigrants to NYC from Ukraine who came right after the break up even will say they are Russian if asked.(02-21-2014 11:24 PM)jimukr104 Wrote: IF you look you wil lsee Odessa the city is very dark. means Russia nspeaking. The Odessa region is pro Russian, but there are Romanian, Bulgarian, and Moldovan speakers in the oblast.I think he was talking about Odessa Oblast, because the city itself is definitely Russian speaking. I had to read it a few times to pick that up.
(02-21-2014 11:24 PM)jimukr104 Wrote: Whats the difference between a Russian and Ukrainian? Its not a separate race.The eastern Slav ethnic group is a mixture of different cultures... hence why Hitler considered subhuman,.The Slav is already a mix, there is really no difference between a belarussian, Russian or Ukrainian.. its seems it more of a designation based on geographic locationThat's one of the larger problems with the surveys that data is based on. What will they answer if you ask "Кто Вы по-национальности?" I think the answer will usually be whatever the cover of their passport says.
Then you have the issue of determining what "Ukrainian" nationality is. Clearly there are a lot of differences between a L'vov Ukrainian and a Donetsk Ukrainian.
What about bilingualism and mixed languages? A lot of people in the Donbas say they speak Ukrainian, but it's actually Surzhik - they speak Russian with a Ukrainian accent and Ukrainian words mixed in.
It is also confusing..my wife isn't even sure what she is. I KNOW I am Russian because my family immigrated from the Stalingrad area, but technically we were on the territory of Ukraine and there is a village named after my last name in Western ukraine(we were of high rank) so we are all suffering an identity crisis.
Yeah I SEE what he meant about Odessa oblast.. but Odessa oblast actually has sections that speak Romanian, Bulgarian, Moldovan at the borders(although Bulgaria doesn't border). Heck there are some Greek ethnics even. i think much of South Ukraine is like that since it was Ottoman empire territory.
One of the reason Ukraine doesn't allow dual passports is because they are terrified that half the country will try to get a Russain passport. Since the industrial east is mostly urban I am sure even those who might have started out Ukrainian married a Russian and the kids are now Ukrainian since born in Ukraine but thinks he/she is Russain .
IMHO I think the split should be done and over with it. It seems that the nationalist will protest any time a leader gets voted in from the East.. so Ukraine has no chance of being a real Democracy.
Yanuk has a better change winning re election than any of those opposition leaders atm.That's why the extremists want him to resign.
(02-22-2014 09:28 AM)rastignac Wrote: The Ukraine/Russian tagging going on these surveys likely is related to twentieth-century migration under Soviet rule.
(02-22-2014 09:28 AM)rastignac Wrote: Odessa oblast is wild:Also remember that Odessa is a very young city - around 220 years old.
Odessa city - primarily native Russian speaking (the red patch on the coast).
Odessa Oblast (especially below Moldova)- Russian, Ukrainain, Albanian, Moldovan/Romanian, Bulgarian, Gagauz - shows the Ottoman diversity jimukr104 talks about.
![[Image: 474135565.jpg?w=940&h=626]](http://wpmedia.news.nationalpost.com/2014/02/474135565.jpg?w=940&h=626)
![[Image: ukraine-33.jpg?w=940&h=613]](http://wpmedia.news.nationalpost.com/2014/02/ukraine-33.jpg?w=940&h=613)
![[Image: ukraine-yulia-tymoshenko.jpg?w=940&h=705]](http://wpmedia.news.nationalpost.com/2014/02/ukraine-yulia-tymoshenko.jpg?w=940&h=705)
(02-22-2014 11:08 AM)RexImperator Wrote: The news reports are rather confusing but I just read that protesters (maybe revolutionaries would be a better term... but I suppose there is no truly neutral term) took control of the presidential palace.
(02-22-2014 10:52 AM)MHaes Wrote: I don't see why Americans are complaining even if we organized a coup in the Ukraine. If we did, there are obviously US interests at stake there. And even if those interests are only directly affecting some US corporation or something, so what? It will obviously increase their revenues, and that cash that would have been going into the Russian economy will now be trickling into the US economy. It's a win for us.Yes, it's a win for America. Today they added a few million to the number of people who already hated your country. What was previously an internal conflict can now be blamed on Americans and Europeans.
![[Image: 379093_original.jpg]](http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/zyalt/10761149/379093/379093_original.jpg)
(02-22-2014 11:21 AM)DjembaDjemba Wrote: Feminism, tourism, Russia, America, EU, non of those mean anything to the average person. They want work, food on the table, a descent standard of living.
(02-22-2014 11:21 AM)DjembaDjemba Wrote: Feminism, tourism, Russia, America, EU, non of those mean anything to the average person. They want work, food on the table, a descent standard of living.So, can we assume that the South/East of the country don't want those things, since they made up only 7.4% of the 'protestors'?
(02-22-2014 11:51 AM)DaveR Wrote:(02-22-2014 11:21 AM)DjembaDjemba Wrote: Feminism, tourism, Russia, America, EU, non of those mean anything to the average person. They want work, food on the table, a descent standard of living.So, can we assume that the South/East of the country don't want those things, since they made up only 7.4% of the 'protestors'?
(02-22-2014 11:46 AM)RexImperator Wrote:(02-22-2014 11:21 AM)DjembaDjemba Wrote: Feminism, tourism, Russia, America, EU, non of those mean anything to the average person. They want work, food on the table, a descent standard of living.
I think it's often the same thing from ancient times up until today. A country can be ruled by a group of elites, but once the masses believe that those elites are only running things in a selfish manner for their own benefit without regard to the common good, trouble is in store. The tipping point usually comes once economic growth severely stagnates.
(02-22-2014 12:02 PM)DjembaDjemba Wrote: Looks like the south/east region has a higher per capita income, lower unemployment, and is more industrialized than the west. If that is really the case, then they simply don't have as much to protest about.There is a clear split between the North/West of the country and the South/East which has existed in every election since independence. It has nothing to do with economics. Rastignac posted some pretty good analysis about it.
(02-22-2014 08:40 AM)Roosh Wrote: One of the better combat videos: http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/0...-kiev.html