(05-12-2017 02:59 PM)Stun Wrote:  ^ Pretty good prediction. BTC and ETH are plummeting. Not to suggest they won't rebound later today, but BTC is currently down $175 on the day.

I tend to engage in a similar kind of personal analysis whether the price is going up or down as I did in post 4200 .

Maybe some RVF guys find my method to be kind of irritating because I am always kind of on the fence in regards to short term predictions. After the price goes beyond certain thresholds, then you have to kind of reanalyze what you believe to be the probabilities within that new price range. The same could be applied to ETH or any other coin that you can attempt to get some kind of grasp about probabilities - or whether the coin might be overpriced or underpriced.

I reset some of my orders a little bit to prepare for down (just spreading out my buy increments a little bit, and the short term change in price direction helped to facilitate that rethinking)

(05-12-2017 03:13 PM)void Wrote:  Check out the Vault 7 thread, there is an encrypting ransomware demanding BTC for decryption. Either the recent explosion BTC/$ was influenced by this, or the bubble will get pumped even more.

Do you have a link?

(05-12-2017 04:18 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-12-2017 03:13 PM)void Wrote:  Check out the Vault 7 thread, there is an encrypting ransomware demanding BTC for decryption. Either the recent explosion BTC/$ was influenced by this, or the bubble will get pumped even more.

Do you have a link?

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-61614...pid1569748

(05-12-2017 03:45 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

(05-12-2017 01:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Surely, the Bitfinex withdrawal situation is taking a long time to resolve.

The below thread reflects on an announcement that Bitfinex made today, which is largely just saying that they have the same problem, but they are are going to allow one time withdrawals of fiat (anticipating still that they are going to be able to resume "normal" operations in the near future).

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/...ls_update/

Thanks for bringing this up JJG. Bitfinex users have been limited to crypto-only deposits and withdrawals for several weeks now, and I imagine given the exchange's history the inability to move fiat must have caused quite a bit of discomfort in anyone who had been using the exchange.

If you've been watching prices go up and up, but you've been unable to cash out for a month, and then suddenly you're given the option...well, I'm not surprised people are taking this opportunity to withdraw fiat.

If that's the situation though, then this latest correction is more of a case of weak hands exiting the market. I imagine there will be some very excited Chinese/Japanese folks waking up in a few hours eager to grab some (relatively) cheap coins. So maybe as the Bitfinex news trickles out we'll see a sustained drop, followed by a new run up to $2k.

Or this is the beginning of the crash and we're on our way back down to ~$1,000. At this point neither would surprise me.

Surely the price can reverse at any time - and blame that on people with a lot of money (aka manipulators); however, the trend is your friend, and sometimes even the manipulators have difficulties controlling the extent of pumps or corrections.


My tentative down analysis is that continued down is a bit more likely than up, and at this point, I am thinking that the next point of support would be around $1,630 - if that is broken, then $1,500 would be the next one after that. If $1,500 is broken, then maybe $1,200 to $1300-ish. $1000 to $1100 would come after that as the next area of support. So I am not saying that breaking down or below $1,000 is not possible, but we have to get through at least 3 areas of support... not impossible, but I think that we gotta start breaking through those before you start to get too fearful of $1,000 - sure, things can also happen quickly in bitcoin landia, too... but I would consider support to be pretty decent in the $1,200 to $1,300 price range... but who knows.. if the case ends up playing out differently?

(05-12-2017 04:32 PM)void Wrote:  

(05-12-2017 04:18 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-12-2017 03:13 PM)void Wrote:  Check out the Vault 7 thread, there is an encrypting ransomware demanding BTC for decryption. Either the recent explosion BTC/$ was influenced by this, or the bubble will get pumped even more.

Do you have a link?

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-61614...pid1569748

Thanks for that link - surely several guys may have known your reference, but I had not read through that thread, and yes BTC has been amongst the most favorite of vehicles for randsomware for quite a long time, now.

Probably other cryptos could be used too, but bitcoin tends to be the most liquid and accordingly, likely the most vehicles that are available to mix your coins.

I recall that there have been some posts on the ransomware and anonymity topic in this thread, but not recently... so thanks for that, void.

Overall seems like a decent and healthy dip. 15% at it's maximum from $1,890 to $1,600, and in the past few hours prices have been largely between about $1690 and $1740.

If we do not get more dip (back into the mid to lower $1,600s), then to me, this current scenario seems pretty bullish...

Once we started dipping and it appeared that prices broke below $1,630, I had a decent feeling that we were going to be going into the $1,500s and perhaps testing support in the lower $1,500s... but it seems that buying support at higher levels was greater than I had anticipated and buying pressure has remained quite strong, even at these seemingly high - and really amazingly, ATH price territories.

By the way, we also seem to have another pattern emerging, or my feeling of a need to make a reassessment of my own conclusions regarding trade volume, which I would characterize as getting into the significantly above average levels.

I believe that it is difficult to assess the impact of trade volumes when looking at a few weeks at a time, but now if we look back at the weekly trade volumes since the beginning of the year, we have about 14 out of 21 weeks being fairly decently high levels, including the past couple of weeks.

I understand that in the past, I had asserted that overall, the trade volume was mediocre, and that was looking at mostly a few weeks at a time, but I am getting the sense of passion and the sense of consistency here, and I have to tweak my conclusion.. to assert that overall the trade volume level seems to be coming into the significantly higher than average territory, especially if we account for the whole past 21 week period.

We may get consolidation, here, too, but I am thinking that the odds for consolidation in this area are not very good.

We are getting a bit better (or more favorable) odds that BTC prices will be returning up and returning to test the $1890 ATH.. and pushing to test $2k.

I don't want to get ahead of myself, but if we go above $2k, then the next resistance points will likely be in the $2300 to $2500 arena).

In other words, this does not seem like a good consolidation price area because there is too much disagreement about the BTC price, which means that we gotta break either upwards or downwards, and since we experienced the mediocre but healthy 15% correction in the past day, I am a bit inclined to think that the scale is tilting slightly in favor of more upwards from here.. maybe just slightly more favorable towards upwards and testing the ATH in the coming week or two-ish.

This seems to be a fairly bitcoin bullish tweet regarding the apparent testing of rootstock - which enables decentralized smart contracts on bitcoin - which could take away quite a bit from Ethereum - if bitcoin accomplishes smart contracts in a secure and decentralized way..


https://twitter.com/RSKsmart/status/863418813097881600
which leads to http://www.rsk.co/

Correction normal and expected. Some alts up which is quite incredible. Other alts finally going down a bit. But still way above their pre-pump levels. LTC has a rough head and shoulders pattern on the 4H chart with ~23 being the break down point.

(05-16-2017 12:19 AM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Correction normal and expected. Some alts up which is quite incredible. Other alts finally going down a bit. But still way above their pre-pump levels. LTC has a rough head and shoulders pattern on the 4H chart with ~23 being the break down point.

I agree with you about bitcoin. Even though we remain in a kind of range, we are still getting a pretty decent sized correction while still maintaining a really high price territory.

If you think about it, yesterday's daily weighted average price closed at $1723.51, which is still 5th place on the ATH chart - even though some of us might be getting a feeling that bitcoin price is dropping a lot, it is still quite up there... and maintaining a pretty good "up there"... seemingly strong ongoing buying and fairly decent trade volume on the weekly, 3day, 1 day and the 12 hour. If we have those top four, I am not sure if there is a necessity to look at trade volume in a more micro-level, especially having decent levels on the top four time line measures.

My most recent thinking, that I kind of plotted out several days ago in another bitcoin thread, was that I was thinking that we were pretty decently likely going to have another upwards break to test the $2k resistance, but we would need to get into the $1820 area in order for that break upwards to seem more likely. Then I was thinking that the odds were pretty decent that we would have one more failure to breach $2k with any kind of meaning - beyond possibly some kind of short term spike above, then at that point, it would be healthy to experience a 20 to 40% correction, which could also be fairly short term in duration.

On the down side, the bottom of the range is currently about $1600, so a double bottom is certainly within the reasonable short term cards, and at this point, breaking below $1580-ish could bring us into the $1300 to $1400 territory - but it does seem that buying pressure is considerable, so currently, I am not thinking that breaking below $1580 in the short term is too likely - like maybe less than 40%..

Regarding the alt connection with BTC - we remain in quite uncharted territory and the seg wit activation on LTC could cause it's head and shoulder pattern to play out a bit more bullishly than otherwise anticipated.

Like you seem to mention, the other alts are currently coming down a bit, but overall their current performance seem to be in a kind of wait and see pattern - and largely maintaining against bitcoin - except for the Ripple anomaly - which I kind of question the extent to which Ripple should be classified as an alt - because of the degree of its centralization.

I am with you on alts, and I would not be surprised with price breaks in either direction... or even scenarios in which bitcoin's share plummets from its current state of about 50% to 30% or lower would not be shocking to me or even necessarily bearish for bitcoin - although other RVF guys seem to give a lot more weight to bitcoin's amount of market share as being relevant. I consider that overall market share picture to be somewhat misleading and irrelevant in this kind of pump scenario because we should already realize that there is nearly an infinite amount of fiat that could be pumped into these various cryptos from a large number of sources that cause misinformation about the importance of market share, and that pumping of fiat into various alts (whether smoke and mirrors or substantively meaningful) does not really take away from the importance and the power of bitcoin in the larger scheme of things.

Regarding bitcoin's relevant market share, I heard one commentary, recently, that seemed to have some resonance with me, and that is that a few years ago (even late 2013), banks and governments were barely paying attention to bitcoin, but now, they are paying attention.. .hahahahaha.. The real threat of bitcoin has become somewhat real - even though through 2014 and 2015 they could kind of "write it off" as a failing phenomenon, but lucky for us, those assessments were wrong because they failed to see the underlying power and development and since late 2015 have been mostly inept in keeping bitcoin down even with the persistence and power of the ongoing scaling debate narrative.

Here are a couple of articles from the past couple of weeks that discuss the relative value of bitcoin's share in the total market capitalization and make similar points to what i had been making earlier regarding the deceptive nature of the importance of bitcoin's shrinking share of that total marketcap.

https://blog.sia.tech/want-to-deflate-th...0f7f1e1ec4

https:[email protected]/why-the-bi...ae324ee2ac

Bitcoin's market dominance is now under 50%. Very big deal.

If Apple loses half its market share to a competitor like Samsung, would anyone with an objective mind brush that off as a "deceptive", and not important?

News!

(05-16-2017 11:49 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Here are a couple of articles from the past couple of weeks that discuss the relative value of bitcoin's share in the total market capitalization and make similar points to what i had been making earlier regarding the deceptive nature of the importance of bitcoin's shrinking share of that total marketcap.

https://blog.sia.tech/want-to-deflate-th...0f7f1e1ec4

https:[email protected]/why-the-bi...ae324ee2ac

Here, I think it may be prudent to highlight some of the points of the above two links. The first one:

https://blog.sia.tech/want-to-deflate-th...0f7f1e1ec4

This one points out how there can be various deceptive practices regarding the valuation of a coin's price and/or market cap by: 1) total supply and circulating supply and 2) inflation information.

Various alt coins engage in deceptive practices regarding that information and frequently potential investors are mislead by the information that they are able to find.


The second one:
https:[email protected]/why-the-bi...ae324ee2ac

This article points out the premise of the erroneous conclusion that bitcoin is losing importance because of its loss of marketcap share. It outlines the argument that are made about bitcoin's loss of utility, but then points out that the alts are not really providing the utility that bitcoin is supposedly lacking, while at the same time the alts are manipulating perceptions and market caps.

My summary may not have done justice, but each of the articles makes very decent points that can assist guys to determine how to allocate their investment and consider current upside potentials and risks, whether considering bitcoin or some combination of alts.

(05-16-2017 01:27 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Bitcoin's market dominance is now under 50%. Very big deal.

If Apple loses half its market share to a competitor like Samsung, would anyone with an objective mind brush that off as a "deceptive", and not important?

News!

Are you providing that article in response to points in my last two posts and the two articles that I provided?

The conclusions of your article and my articles seem to be coming to opposite places, no?

Your article bolsters the idea of the importance of the market share and bitcoin's supposed loss of market share, and my articles rebut the importance of that relative market share and describe various forms of deception, manipulation and marketing that is taking place in regards to those kinds of market share arguments.

Sure, there is some overlapping of shared facts in the articles, but arriving at some differing conclusions that can be confusing, no?

Doesn't the Forbes article come off as a bit misleading? Pumping Ethereum and dumping on bitcoin?

And, really the acknowledgement of the recent Ripple effect within the Forbes article.. I mean that with Ripple you have a bank coin that is obviously manipulated and pumped and premined and lacking in circulating coins and may not even really fit well into the crypto space that is contributing to alt coin market cap inflation numbers.

Wouldn't we take this info regarding loss of bitcoin market cap with a grain of salt rather than considering it some kind of reason to PANIC regarding the supposed demise of bitcoin? Actually, the information may be quite bullish for bitcoin to witness the extent to which various coins are pumped and manipulated in order to attempt to discredit bitcoin, no?

In the end, hopefully guys are able to sort through some of the confusion in order to attempt to figure out their own comfortable allocation levels (and hopefully RVF guys are not tricked by misleading information too much out of their coins - by either not investing when they could have or selling too soon or too many of their coins).

(05-16-2017 01:27 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Bitcoin's market dominance is now under 50%. Very big deal.

If Apple loses half its market share to a competitor like Samsung, would anyone with an objective mind brush that off as a "deceptive", and not important?

News!

That was faster that I expected! From 90 % to 50 % in what? A few months? Probably unimportant to the average bitcoin bull.

Just found some live pics of BTC vs ETH in the ring that I want to share with you guys:



As you can see, BTC is falling like a rat's ass.

But this is not enough.

I also found some pics of the ripple bull in action - look closely:




Bitcoin below 40 % before the end of this month? This guy is waiting for it:

Bitcoin should break out in the next 7 days. Get ready.

(05-16-2017 04:04 PM)SunW Wrote:  Bitcoin should break out in the next 7 days. Get ready.

You mean up?

Above $2k? Above $2,300? Above $3k?

Remember around the turn of the year that you had only predicted $1,800 in 2017? Are you revising your prediction to higher levels?

Please enlighten us mere mortals.

(05-16-2017 03:42 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 01:27 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Bitcoin's market dominance is now under 50%. Very big deal.

If Apple loses half its market share to a competitor like Samsung, would anyone with an objective mind brush that off as a "deceptive", and not important?

News!

That was faster that I expected! From 90 % to 50 % in what? A few months? Probably unimportant to the average bitcoin bull.

Just found some live pics of BTC vs ETH in the ring that I want to share with you guys:



As you can see, BTC is falling like a rat's ass.

But this is not enough.

I also found some pics of the ripple bull in action - look closely:




Bitcoin below 40 % before the end of this month? This guy is waiting for it:

Here's an interesting thread in which folks are talking about this topic.. in essence the theme of the thread is that shitcoin pumpers are using misleading information to attempt to denigrate bitcoin.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1920097.0

It is actually a bit ironic that Bitcoin prices continue to remain so bullish in spite of record high levels of backlog and unconfirmed transactions in recent times.


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...s_now_why/

I have even experiences some of this myself, and it is very frustrating to take several days for confirmation.

Regarding BTC price, on the contrary, in the past, we have seen some evidence that if it becomes more and more difficult (time consuming) to move coins to exchanges, then the exchanges may run out of coins for sale, which will also have a tendency to drive up BTC prices. I am not sure about the extent to which this is a reality, but historically bitcoin could be moved within less than an hour to various exchanges and to dump them, and now if it is taking a day or even three days for coins to confirm, then exchanges may run out of coins for sale and cause additional upwards pressures on BTC prices.

(05-16-2017 04:12 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 04:04 PM)SunW Wrote:  Bitcoin should break out in the next 7 days. Get ready.

You mean up?

Above $2k? Above $2,300? Above $3k?

Remember around the turn of the year that you had only predicted $1,800 in 2017? Are you revising your prediction to higher levels?

Please enlighten us mere mortals.

For this year, above $1825 is where we should be (it's already been at $1860). This will be a TA pop, not sure how high.

(05-16-2017 05:04 PM)SunW Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 04:12 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 04:04 PM)SunW Wrote:  Bitcoin should break out in the next 7 days. Get ready.

laugh5:

You mean up?

Above $2k? Above $2,300? Above $3k?

Remember around the turn of the year that you had only predicted $1,800 in 2017? Are you revising your prediction to higher levels?

Please enlighten us mere mortals.

For this year, above $1825 is where we should be (it's already been at $1860). This will be a TA pop, not sure how high.

You are sounding a bit timid - maybe not bearish, but you are not venturing very far in the upwards direction.

I could understand if you suggest that 2017 will not provide for a breaking through of $2k resistance, but the ramifications of that seem to be quite bearish.

Do you admit, or not that BTC prices cannot stay anywhere in a $1400 to $1900 price territory without first breaking above or below first?

SunW? We are in price battle territory, no?

BTC is way, way , way too immature to reach any kind of market stability, unless there is an up and a down first. We have only experienced the up recently, so either we get down from here and then stabilize in the supra $1k territory, or we get further up and beyond $2k, no?

SunW? Anyone?

It makes little sense that BTC is not ramping up for some kind of price battle - and don't tell me that this battle might not be connected with some of the hyperbole in the alt coin space.

I am not suggesting that I know which way this is going, exactly, but we cannot really be timid in our predictions, right now, right? Isn't the whole underlying money coming into crypto priming the battle pumps in the whole crypto space, including BTC?

Whether any of the crypto bubbles pop, and whether there is going to be correlation or reverse correlation between BTC and other coins is going to be an interesting set of upcoming events, and to see which coin(s), if any, may come out on top or not. Battles tend to not be pretty, and there may be some blood in the streets, and which ones are going to come out the most bloodied or the most unscathed?

(05-16-2017 04:16 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 03:42 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 01:27 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Bitcoin's market dominance is now under 50%. Very big deal.

If Apple loses half its market share to a competitor like Samsung, would anyone with an objective mind brush that off as a "deceptive", and not important?

News!

That was faster that I expected! From 90 % to 50 % in what? A few months? Probably unimportant to the average bitcoin bull.

Just found some live pics of BTC vs ETH in the ring that I want to share with you guys:



As you can see, BTC is falling like a rat's ass.

But this is not enough.

I also found some pics of the ripple bull in action - look closely:




Bitcoin below 40 % before the end of this month? This guy is waiting for it:

Here's an interesting thread in which folks are talking about this topic.. in essence the theme of the thread is that shitcoin pumpers are using misleading information to attempt to denigrate bitcoin.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1920097.0

author'Enjorlas Wrote:Keep fooling yourselves Bitcoiners. You are about to get a hard lesson in free markets when people start moving away from the freak show that Bitcoin has become. Ethereum is where Bitcoin was just 5 months ago. You can't rely on the Bitcoin brand name forever.

#Adapt or Die

(05-17-2017 03:44 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 04:16 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 03:42 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(05-16-2017 01:27 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Bitcoin's market dominance is now under 50%. Very big deal.

If Apple loses half its market share to a competitor like Samsung, would anyone with an objective mind brush that off as a "deceptive", and not important?

News!

That was faster that I expected! From 90 % to 50 % in what? A few months? Probably unimportant to the average bitcoin bull.

Just found some live pics of BTC vs ETH in the ring that I want to share with you guys:

[https://media.giphy.com/media/l2SpT69I8CViC00zC/giphy.gif[/img]

As you can see, BTC is falling like a rat's ass.

But this is not enough.

I also found some pics of the ripple bull in action - look closely:

[https://media.giphy.com/media/cVcXJ0eY9cWEU/giphy.gif[/img]


Bitcoin below 40 % before the end of this month? This guy is waiting for it:

[https://media.giphy.com/media/26gJAzOW1B7EdvWRG/giphy.gif[/img]

Here's an interesting thread in which folks are talking about this topic.. in essence the theme of the thread is that shitcoin pumpers are using misleading information to attempt to denigrate bitcoin.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1920097.0

author'Enjorlas Wrote:Keep fooling yourselves Bitcoiners. You are about to get a hard lesson in free markets when people start moving away from the freak show that Bitcoin has become. Ethereum is where Bitcoin was just 5 months ago. You can't rely on the Bitcoin brand name forever.

#Adapt or Die

[https://media.giphy.com/media/f7R5tM4LOoTDO/giphy.gif[/img]

I don't understand why you feel that there is some kind of competition going on.

Let the market's play out. Let people decide where to put their money.

I am comfortable with my bets, and I am comfortable making various adjustments along the way, as I see fit.

There remains a lot of action in bitcoin, currently.

I feel a lot better that I spread out my buy and sell orders, and they are not being triggered as frequently - yet even spreading out my orders, I personally continue to experience that there remains a lot of ongoing volatility - $100 price moves within hours.

I've predicted that bitcoin will lose market shares for several years, and during all this time have you been mocking and insulting me. Now this is happening and I can't say more than I told you so. If you feel good about doing 5x, then be happy right now. But your passive aggressiv style of manipulating other members of the facts regarding bitcoin is in my opinion unacceptable.

(05-17-2017 01:31 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  I've predicted that bitcoin will lose market shares for several years, and during all this time have you been mocking and insulting me. Now this is happening and I can't say more than I told you so. If you feel good about doing 5x, then be happy right now. But your passive aggressiv style of manipulating other members of the facts regarding bitcoin is in my opinion unacceptable.

Most likely you misunderstand, and put too much personal into the matter, whether it is the importance of predictions or the importance of opinions.

Any of us can have opinions and express them and hopefully back them up with facts and logic, but sometimes guys merely express their conclusions, and that is a matter of style.

Furthermore, I doubt that I denied any kind of prediction regarding how much market share bitcoin will have and whether it will lose market share, and I really do not know those kinds of things or how they will play out.

Regarding market share, frequently, I have made the point regarding that one factor receiving way more attention and weight than it deserves - especially now, if anyone is lumping in Ripple, as if that were some kind of meaningful measure of bitcoin dilution. Do you want to count Ripple as a serious competitor to bitcoin?

Further, did you look at my comments and the information of the links in my 4218 post
There is some interesting substantive discussion in those linked articles, and sure, the conversation need not stop there, rather than getting diverted into feelings, right?

Finally, even though in the past I have asserted that you are engaged in trolling, I have no problem letting bygones be bygones, to enter into a truce and attempt to engage in substantive sharing of bitcoin related information that can help guys to be better informed about bitcoin and the extent to which they may want to put any of their eggs in the bitcoin basket - versus some other crypto basket versus some other traditional investment.

Currently, there should be a lot of excitement in the bitcoin space.

Yesterday, while prices were in the lower $1700s, I had mentioned the price range of $1,580 to $1,820 and that a break out in either direction would kind of indicate the likelihood of the next direction.

Boy, we get an upward retrace of $100 and above $1,820 so quickly... so looks like decent chances of continuing UP..

And, a couple of hours ago, Bitfinex was actually within $14 of breaching it's ATH of $1,908.

At this point, I would not be surprised if we get a test of $2k within the next 1-3 days..

I expect there to be a pretty decent amount of resistance in the $2k territory - so I would be a bit surprised if we were able to break above $2k very easily... so we could have a decent sized correction from there (15% or more) but I do not have too many doubts about the likelihood of an imminent test of that $2k area resistance.