Wow... it's been a while since we had some of you ponzi scheme nutters in here.
[b]2) no underlying value like gold: ... Based on your statements, since it appears that you do not really seem to understand some of the basic features of bitcoin, I don't really want to get into the intricacies of bitcoin's values but one summary of them is that bitcoin is one of the only phenomenons that meet this definition of an asset class that is vehicle for secure decentralized and immutable storage and transfer of value. Name one other asset class that competes with bitcoin under those terms, and therefore, bitcoin brings some features that no other asset has (there is value with that, hello?)
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Of course you "don't really want to get into the intricacies of bitcoin's values" because the only underlying value is that other people believe it has value.
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I don't want to get into the intricacies because I have already written in thousands of pages in this thread related to the topic or provided various links of information related to the topic.
Sure you can boil down almost any value to the fact that it has value based on people thinking that it has value, but there is more to it than that simplified boiling down.. including actual facts.. actual tangibilities, even though bitcoin itself is not a tangible and physical item it still is a tangible phenomenon that has been invented that is similar to the internet with a value component that has been attached and cannot be duplicated. that is one of the problems that satoshi solved in cryptology. In the past, whenever something digital had been created, such as a coin, it could be duplicated and inflated, but the combination of cryptology and peer to peer proof of work solves the duplication of coin problem... that part is an amazing new contribution of bitcoin and it has value in and of itself.. especially in this modern age of computers and in this modern age of mobility... and with world events as they are with governments having a war on cash while inflating their own cash systems, etc etc etc.
(02-12-2017 07:16 AM)_Cicero Wrote: This is a bubble, like the Tulip Craze, stocks in the 1920s, the Nifty Fifty, the Tech bubble in the 1990s, housing bubble, etc. Note that these bubbles can persist for some time.
O.k. sure fair enough that bubbles can persist for "some time", and let's say that sometime is 1 week or 100 years, in the mean time, we can still invest in such a situation.
Even though I am conceding that bubbles can persist for a long time, I am not conceding that bitcoin is a bubble. But I am conceding that hypothetically if bitcoin were a bubble like you proclaim, it is possibly true that we might not know about it being a bubble until after the fact that it pops, and at that point we would be able to conclude that it was a bubble.
People can have varying views about the value of an asset, and I just don't think that there are sufficient facts to establish that bitcoin is a bubble based on a kind of ponzi scheme as you are suggesting... and so there is nothing wrong with having varying opinions and investing according to your view of the situation.
If you read any of my posts in this thread, you may gather that I have already disclosed quite a bit about my own investing approach which contains an underlying assumption that over time bitcoin is going to continue to go up in value.. but I do not really attempt to know or predict short term price movements so I attempt to protect myself from price movements in both directions. Therefore, I buy on the way down and I sell on the way up. So I have been tending to stack both fiat and bitcoin.
Accordingly, RVF guys should be able to chose the proportion of their funds in which they invest. My initial target was to invest 10% of my quasi-liquid assets into bitcoin, and it took me about a year to achieve my initial goal (which was about by the end of 2014); however, bitcoin prices remained somewhat surprised through 2015 in the $200 arena, so I continued to accumulate coins during this time with dollar cost averaging (nothing that would break the bank.. but enough that it continued to add value to my overall holdings). Those lower prices and my continuing to just put in "spare" money caused me to put in quite more than my initial target and I could not really justify selling either because my overall investment was quite bit more than the value if I had sold.. In other words I was about 60% in the red at the lowest point.
I think that due to bitcoin's price appreciation over the past 16 months or so, my holdings have gone from a bit over 10% to my liquid assets to more than 30% of my semi-liquid assets. My portfolio is also now 150% in the green.. so there was a considerable upturn in prices, so I continued to sell on the way up and to buy on the way down.
And yeah, I will concede that volatility can be stressful, even though upward volatility seems to be less stressful than downwards volatility, but there can still be personal investment strategies that attempt to safeguard and to individualize your strategy to your own finances, views and risk proclivities.
(02-12-2017 07:16 AM)_Cicero Wrote: The technological problem bitcoin solved is impressive, but other digital currencies can do what Bitcoin does.
Yes, it is possible that some day, another crypto could surplant bitcoin's market lead, but the fact of the real world remains that systems are currently being extensively built upon bitcoin.. so yeah, if the some day does come, then anyone can hedge or move investments to that other crypto.
I am glad that you are conceding that there is something "impressive" about bitcoin, but I still think that you are undervaluing how difficult it is to replicate networking effects that bitcoin has achieved.
Here is a description of 7 network effects in bitcoin as described in an article by Trace Mayer.
http://www.thrivenotes.com/the-7-network...f-bitcoin/
1) Speculation
2) Merchant Adoption
3) Consumer Adoption
4) Security
5) Developer Mindshare
6) Financialization
7) Adoption as a World Reserve Currency
Of course you do not need all seven networking effects for something to have intrinsic value and to rise above being a "ponzi" scheme.
(02-12-2017 07:16 AM)_Cicero Wrote: Clearly, there are a lot of "true believers" in it, which means that the price won't go to zero tomorrow, but eventually all these cryptocurrencies must go the way of Sexcoin.
Bitcoin is based on more than just true believers, but surely it does help to have some true believers, and your attempt to equate bitcoin with sexcoin seems to miss some of the nuances of value that are actually present with bitcoin rather than some imitation that just plays on an attractive theme but adds no real value in the same way that bitcoin does.
(02-12-2017 07:16 AM)_Cicero Wrote: If the true value of Bitcoin is that more people know about it than they know about Litecoin, Ripple, or Monero, then it's going to be a volitile investment.
Of course, bitcoin is going to continue to be very volatile. It is a pretty small market cap. People know a lot more about bitcoin than they do about the other alts that you have named, and those alts are a lot newer than bitcoin, so their market share is much smaller and even more easy to manipulate. As bitcoin grows in market cap it will continue to be volatile, but I will concede that I would expect bitcoin to continue to be considerably volatile for at least another 100x increase in market cap (which may or may not happen), but as the market cap goes up volatility will go down, but there still remains a long way to go before volatility is anywhere near "low" levels in bitcoin.
Like I said, I attempt to protect myself from some of the volatility, but even I can get a bit stressed about some of the ongoing volatility that is expected to continue.
(02-12-2017 07:16 AM)_Cicero Wrote: I'll check out Bitfinex, and google how to short...
If you are not a skilled shorter then you are likely to run into some troubles, and especially since you seem to compounding the matter by wanting to short something that you seem to not understand.
But, yeah, I don't really have any problem with people betting against bitcoin.
I think that more or less the easiest way would be that you buy some bitcoin and you send it to Bitfinex (of course after you open an account), and then you create your bet against bitcoin. You may have limits about how much you can bet, and as your account is established, you can increase your limits of how much you can bet.
I personally do not engage in leveraging bets of that sort because I never have enough confidence in either price direction.