(06-17-2016 09:55 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:(06-17-2016 01:27 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Anyone else have a prediction or observation regarding our current state in bitcoin?
Prediction: Bitcoin breaks $1,000 before or just after the halving.
Causes: The upcoming halving, Brexit worries, Chinese capital controls, expanded internet/smart phone access in Africa, Venezuelan apocalypse/hyperinflation, comparably low returns to stocks and other general economic malaise, uncertainty regarding the U.S. presidential election, fears about another global economic crash(another housing bubble, or student loans, or more national debt defaults, etc.)
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I don't want to be a broken record, but seeing as there will likely be plenty of newcomers to this thread in the near future I'd like to re-post my prediction/observation from back in January:
Quote:The Gartner Hype Cycle describes the visibility and adoption of a new technology over time:
1. Technology Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories鈥攐ften accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; most don't.
3. Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.
4. Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.
5. Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology鈥檚 broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.
Let's compare the Hype Cycle to bitcoin's progress thus far:
Hype Cycle:
Bitcoin in USD, 2009-present (updated to June 17th 2016):
It is my firm belief that we have exited the Trough and are now well into the Slope of Enlightenment.
I say this not only due to the recent surge in price, but also
1) the large increase in venture capital investments/Bitcoin startups
2) heightened visibility and (semi-) mainstream adoption worldwide leading to an exponential increase in bitcoin's network effect
3) a decrease in fear and skepticism due to Bitcoin's longevity and stubborn refusal to die
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While I bought a good number of coins back in February, I've been doing well enough financially that I am considering moving more of my cash into Bitcoin.
I certainly don't see it going down any time soon, what with all the reasons listed above, and even though the tax implications in the U.S. disincentivize selling in the short-term (< 1 year), it's easy enough to switch out coins for cash should an emergency occur.
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Very interested to see what thoughts other RVF Bitcoiners have to share. A devil's advocate-type approach to my unbridled enthusiasm would certainly be appreciated.
(06-17-2016 12:44 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: As you likely realize, I'm largely in agreement with your point of view; however, I would quibble a little bit with your suggesting that $1,000 is some kind of pivotal or meaningful point for bitcoin....
Quote:Regarding your other personal investment thinking.. you could be correct that lump sum may be o.k... but it may be a bit better to consider part of that money as lump sum and another part as dollar cost averaging...
Quote:By the way is some of your lump sum funding currently available.. like within days, or will it take some time to get access to it?
(06-17-2016 02:47 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:(06-17-2016 12:44 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: As you likely realize, I'm largely in agreement with your point of view; however, I would quibble a little bit with your suggesting that $1,000 is some kind of pivotal or meaningful point for bitcoin....
You're right in that $1k is a rather arbitrary number, but people tend to think in terms of nice, round numbers (especially in powers of 10), and it's my hunch that many subconsciously consider $1k a sort of "ceiling" that, once broken, may see the release of some pent-up demand. This is of course referring more to the latest bitcoin bandwagoners, not the folks who were around in 2013 to see that spike.
Quote:Regarding your other personal investment thinking.. you could be correct that lump sum may be o.k... but it may be a bit better to consider part of that money as lump sum and another part as dollar cost averaging...
That's essentially my thinking.
I still have a large amount of fiat cash I've always kept as an "emergency" fund, but with my current financial situation having improved so rapidly there's really no reason to leave it all sitting in an online savings account that doesn't even beat inflation. I figure I'll move ~50% to bitcoin by buying the dips when/if they occur over the next week or so.
Quote:By the way is some of your lump sum funding currently available.. like within days, or will it take some time to get access to it?
I have my all my coins in a mix of Circle and Coinbase accounts. Been meaning to create a paper wallet for the bulk of it but haven't found the time yet.
With all the changes lately I'm wondering if that's still the best option, or if I should just open another type of wallet or two and spread the risk across multiple third parties, should I need to access the coins for some reason.
(06-18-2016 05:10 PM)el mechanico Wrote: Jays mom must've sold off a few hours ago.

(06-18-2016 04:15 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Where are the Ethereum comparison/contrasts now?Yep that was me. Don't know if you remember me JJG, I'll apologize to you how I reacted and for being too much into ethereum. I guess I was kinda blided because it did actually make me 3x.
(06-19-2016 03:46 PM)Tresdus Wrote:(06-18-2016 04:15 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: Where are the Ethereum comparison/contrasts now?Yep that was me. Don't know if you remember me JJG, I'll apologize to you how I reacted and for being too much into ethereum. I guess I was kinda blided because it did actually make me 3x.
I sold all my ethereum couple months back. All in BTC now.
(06-19-2016 03:46 PM)Tresdus Wrote: Don't know if you remember me JJG,
(06-19-2016 05:05 PM)el mechanico Wrote: Jay please tell me what you do for a living. It would take me all morning to write that all out and you do something of that nature in every response. Send me a pm I'm curious.
(06-19-2016 06:29 PM)Perfectionist Wrote: What is the best and safest way to buy bitcoins... and what do you guys use to moniter its price etc...
(06-21-2016 02:09 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: I still think that these are all decent buying opportunities in the $600s, so long as you also prepare for the possibility that BTC prices could be continuing a bit lower before we resume the likely upwards. Thoughts anyone?
(06-16-2016 10:22 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:(06-16-2016 09:42 PM)Seth_Rose Wrote: My dad actually was just asking if I could set a stop-loss for Bitcoin--I didn't think I could for Coinbase. I should probably look into this further...
Well, since you already have a Coinbase account, it is easy to transfer some or all of those funds onto the Coinbase exchanged (also called GDAX)... There is a link on the bottom of their page, and since they are co-owned the transfer is immediately effective.
Once you transfer whatever amount of BTC onto GDAX, then you can set up a stop sell or stop buy... So, yep, there are tools available for that through Coinbase's exchange GDAX.
So far, I do not use those stop loss tools, so I would not be able to speak about any personal experiences that I have with those, except to see the feature is available and just to remind you that bitcoin prices can sometimes swing fairly wildly, but it may not mean that you want to trigger your stop in those conditions... but anyhow, you can consider that volatile swings in the price could cause unwanted triggering of such stop orders depending upon how you set them up, of course.
(06-21-2016 03:13 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:(06-21-2016 02:09 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote: I still think that these are all decent buying opportunities in the $600s, so long as you also prepare for the possibility that BTC prices could be continuing a bit lower before we resume the likely upwards. Thoughts anyone?
Agreed. I've been buying .25 here and there as prices drop. I figure it's only a matter of time before they head upwards again, too many factors that make BTC such a great investment at the moment.
(06-22-2016 01:55 PM)jamaicabound Wrote: I had kind of tuned out to Bitcoin for the past few months, I had been buying on dips below say $400 and just flipping at $450. I had built it up to about 30 coins and wish I would have kept sitting on some. Last time I checked I sold some off for about a $70 profit per coin. Just recently was bored and Googled bitcoin and was shocked to see where price was, sold off my remaining 9 coins or so for a nice little profit but kicking myself for not having kept more, my initial plan was to never drop below 20. I'm looking to buy back in but waiting to see if current prices hold. I have a feeling we'll be back around $550 soon.