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whateverfuckit · 2015-12-15 01:27:00 · #2407
Bitcoin is just a variation on the ages old Pyramid scheme.

The people who saw incredible returns have long since cashed out.

Whatever money you make on Bitcoin today is NOTHING compared to what the "ground floor investors" received.

Bitcoin is just as likely to plummet in value as it is to soar. The problem with "Bitcoin enthusiasts" is they have the mindset of a gambler: Just one more throw of the dice, one more hand. Just let me wait for one more bubble, let me buy Bitcoin one more time.....

One day, and I'm betting sooner than you think, it's going to come crashing down.

For those who believe that Bitcoin is going to replace "real" currency: A question for you:

If the US Dollar aka the worlds reserve currency, collapses, what are you going to trade or sell your Bitcoins for? Worthless US dollars? You think someone is going to sell you food for Bitcoin? I doubt it....

My point is, Bitcoin is fine, if you only invest what you can afford to lose, and you FULLY EXPECT to lose your investment. I'm only offering words of caution.


TL;DR: If you're investing in BC, don't get greedy. Make your returns and sell. Be happy with whatever money you make.

Full disclosure: I have not invested in BC and have no financial incentive in any "alt currency".
JayJuanGee · 2015-12-15 02:08:00 · #2408
(12-15-2015 01:27 AM)whateverfuckit Wrote:  Bitcoin is just a variation on the ages old Pyramid scheme.

The people who saw incredible returns have long since cashed out.

Whatever money you make on Bitcoin today is NOTHING compared to what the "ground floor investors" received.

Bitcoin is just as likely to plummet in value as it is to soar. The problem with "Bitcoin enthusiasts" is they have the mindset of a gambler: Just one more throw of the dice, one more hand. Just let me wait for one more bubble, let me buy Bitcoin one more time.....

One day, and I'm betting sooner than you think, it's going to come crashing down.

For those who believe that Bitcoin is going to replace "real" currency: A question for you:

If the US Dollar aka the worlds reserve currency, collapses, what are you going to trade or sell your Bitcoins for? Worthless US dollars? You think someone is going to sell you food for Bitcoin? I doubt it....

My point is, Bitcoin is fine, if you only invest what you can afford to lose, and you FULLY EXPECT to lose your investment. I'm only offering words of caution.


TL;DR: If you're investing in BC, don't get greedy. Make your returns and sell. Be happy with whatever money you make.

Full disclosure: I have not invested in BC and have no financial incentive in any "alt currency".


If you haven't invested in BTC, then I wonder why you feel it is necessary to participate in the bitcoin thread?

Oh? to warn everyone not to get involved in a pyramid scheme.

Your comments show that you are really not too knowledgable about bitcoin, especially when you seem to be throwing out a lot of canned arguments that have been addressed several times in this thread, but wait you do not want to waste your time, reading the thread, and instead, you want to just save us, or save potential innocent RVF'ers from being scammed by the earlier investors.

I wished you could at least come up with a bit better (possibly more informed argument to denigrate bitcoin besides the superficial claims you made including the pyramid scheme one.

Regarding crashing, that wet dream scenario of yours is becoming less and less likely, and more likely we are going to witness crashing upwardly - because it is becoming more and more clear that bitcoin has already entered into a bull market, so whether guys are considering long or short term investments there is currently a lot of action and a lot of additional potential.

I do seem to agree with you regarding one of your points, and that is even though, in this thread most guys have not really been into giving financial advice, many times there have been suggestions that guys should not invest more than they can afford to lose, but that is the case with any investment and any diversification plan.
BBinger · 2015-12-15 03:06:00 · #2409
(12-15-2015 02:08 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Regarding crashing, that wet dream scenario of yours is becoming less and less likely, and more likely we are going to witness crashing upwardly - because it is becoming more and more clear that bitcoin has already entered into a bull market, so whether guys are considering long or short term investments there is currently a lot of action and a lot of additional potential.

I do seem to agree with you regarding one of your points, and that is even though, in this thread most guys have not really been into giving financial advice, many times there have been suggestions that guys should not invest more than they can afford to lose, but that is the case with any investment and any diversification plan.

For what little it's worth it qualitatively feels like the fall of 2012 all over again.
whateverfuckit · 2015-12-15 03:10:00 · #2410
Ok, you can keep believing Bitcoin will make you a multi-million(billion?)aire. Whatever helps you sleep at night....

I think if Bitcoin were as valuable as you say, the rich and powerful would already have purchased most of it. I highly doubt that you, or any of those who spend their time creating Youtube videos and Blog posts about how valuable Bitcoin is/will be are smarter than the likes of Warren Buffet etc.

Bitcoin value plummeted with Silk Road. That tells me all I need to know. The "value" of Bitcoin is in "anonymity". Which, I agree---there is some value in being able to make semi-anonymous purchases. But not enough that the average person will ever seek to use it as a main or even secondary currency.

And that is the issue---there will never be a point where Bitcoin becomes mainstream, because the AVERAGE person has no use for it. Most people don't even care that the NSA spies on over 300 million people, and you think they will buy up your worthless intangible currency? Please, tell me more jokes, funny man.

The truth about ANY currency is that it's only value is in what people believe it is. If I printed 100 million Monopoly style dollars with my face on them, and then suddenly everyone in America believed them to be of worth, the currency would have value, simply because people give it to it. The dollar, Euro, etc are just paper---barely worth starting a fire with, but people BELIEVE in the value. When faith falls, so does the value. The problem is, there's no reason to put faith into Bitcoin more than any other currency. I can't buy groceries with it, I can't pay rent with it, I can't put up bail with it (yes, I realize there are middle men who offer such services, but that's not the point). Until Wal-Mart or Amazon.com start accepting Bitcoin payments, your currency is a pipe-dream.

With that said, I will take my leave. Your investments are none of my business.
JayJuanGee · 2015-12-15 03:34:00 · #2411
(12-15-2015 02:08 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(12-15-2015 01:27 AM)whateverfuckit Wrote:  Bitcoin is just a variation on the ages old Pyramid scheme.

The people who saw incredible returns have long since cashed out.

Whatever money you make on Bitcoin today is NOTHING compared to what the "ground floor investors" received.

Bitcoin is just as likely to plummet in value as it is to soar. The problem with "Bitcoin enthusiasts" is they have the mindset of a gambler: Just one more throw of the dice, one more hand. Just let me wait for one more bubble, let me buy Bitcoin one more time.....

One day, and I'm betting sooner than you think, it's going to come crashing down.

For those who believe that Bitcoin is going to replace "real" currency: A question for you:

If the US Dollar aka the worlds reserve currency, collapses, what are you going to trade or sell your Bitcoins for? Worthless US dollars? You think someone is going to sell you food for Bitcoin? I doubt it....

My point is, Bitcoin is fine, if you only invest what you can afford to lose, and you FULLY EXPECT to lose your investment. I'm only offering words of caution.


TL;DR: If you're investing in BC, don't get greedy. Make your returns and sell. Be happy with whatever money you make.

Full disclosure: I have not invested in BC and have no financial incentive in any "alt currency".


If you haven't invested in BTC, then I wonder why you feel it is necessary to participate in the bitcoin thread?

Oh? to warn everyone not to get involved in a pyramid scheme.

Your comments show that you are really not too knowledgable about bitcoin, especially when you seem to be throwing out a lot of canned arguments that have been addressed several times in this thread, but wait you do not want to waste your time, reading the thread, and instead, you want to just save us, or save potential innocent RVF'ers from being scammed by the earlier investors.

I wished you could at least come up with a bit better (possibly more informed argument to denigrate bitcoin besides the superficial claims you made including the pyramid scheme one.

Regarding crashing, that wet dream scenario of yours is becoming less and less likely, and more likely we are going to witness crashing upwardly - because it is becoming more and more clear that bitcoin has already entered into a bull market, so whether guys are considering long or short term investments there is currently a lot of action and a lot of additional potential.

I do seem to agree with you regarding one of your points, and that is even though, in this thread most guys have not really been into giving financial advice, many times there have been suggestions that guys should not invest more than they can afford to lose, but that is the case with any investment and any diversification plan.


Exciting times, that's for sure. There's some kind of expression about history not exactly repeating itself, but it rhymes.... and even though I was not in the BTC space during 2012, from what I've read about it, there seem to be some interesting parallels, including a kind of extended down period that was coupled with continuing and ongoing underlying developments that seemed to fuel later price action.
JayJuanGee · 2015-12-15 04:15:00 · #2412
(12-15-2015 03:10 AM)whateverfuckit Wrote:  Ok, you can keep believing Bitcoin will make you a multi-million(billion?)aire. Whatever helps you sleep at night....

O.k. I will concede from your overall comments that you do not seem to be dumb, but you are spewing out a lot of what seem to be unsubstantiated, ill-begotten and seemingly hateful and judgemental attacks. I still don't really understand why you feel some need to jump into this thread to inform us that we have pie in the sky pipe dreams.

I don't think that in any recent time any of us here have been arguing or asserting that bitcoin is going to make guys into millionaires or billionaires, but I suppose that it is a logical extension of some of the assertions in this thread and other bitcoin threads that you may have been reading.







(12-15-2015 03:10 AM)whateverfuckit Wrote:  I think if Bitcoin were as valuable as you say, the rich and powerful would already have purchased most of it. I highly doubt that you, or any of those who spend their time creating Youtube videos and Blog posts about how valuable Bitcoin is/will be are smarter than the likes of Warren Buffet etc.
you seem to be oversimplifying in your attempt to create strawman arguments. There are various investors in bitcoin, of course, and surely mainstream is taking some time to come over to bitcoin; however, there is increasing evidence of adoption and interest of mainstream - even if warren buffet doesn't happen to be on board, yet. You know not everyone needs to jump on board for bitcoin to be successful and it is already successful in a lot of ways and continuing to be developed..

you can recognize innovations in the space or you can fight the innovations or you can attempt to get involved. There are a lot of variations to any persons chosen involvement, and bitcoin can have a variety of contributions whether you endorse it or fight it in your various apparently bitter ways.




(12-15-2015 03:10 AM)whateverfuckit Wrote:  Bitcoin value plummeted with Silk Road. That tells me all I need to know. The "value" of Bitcoin is in "anonymity". Which, I agree---there is some value in being able to make semi-anonymous purchases. But not enough that the average person will ever seek to use it as a main or even secondary currency.

Maybe we draw different conclusions from various incidents surrounding silkroad, but silkroad did seem to serve a certain catalyst in bringing various good and bad attention to btc including showing some market potential with BTC




(12-15-2015 03:10 AM)whateverfuckit Wrote:  And that is the issue---there will never be a point where Bitcoin becomes mainstream, because the AVERAGE person has no use for it. Most people don't even care that the NSA spies on over 300 million people, and you think they will buy up your worthless intangible currency? Please, tell me more jokes, funny man.

Again different uses for different folks and BTC does not need to become mainstream to be successful - even though mainstreaming BTC would cause a lot more exponential growth, if that were to occur.





(12-15-2015 03:10 AM)whateverfuckit Wrote:  The truth about ANY currency is that it's only value is in what people believe it is. If I printed 100 million Monopoly style dollars with my face on them, and then suddenly everyone in America believed them to be of worth, the currency would have value, simply because people give it to it. The dollar, Euro, etc are just paper---barely worth starting a fire with, but people BELIEVE in the value. When faith falls, so does the value. The problem is, there's no reason to put faith into Bitcoin more than any other currency. I can't buy groceries with it, I can't pay rent with it, I can't put up bail with it (yes, I realize there are middle men who offer such services, but that's not the point). Until Wal-Mart or Amazon.com start accepting Bitcoin payments, your currency is a pipe-dream.

It's almost as if you are pick ing out arguments from 2011.. hahahahaha

Shows some of the superficiality of either your knowledge or the trolling nature of your comments to be striving to stir shit without really having any vested interest (or what exactly is your vested interest that you feel such a need to come out with your various superficial bs arguments.

Yes, bitcoin naysayers like to harp on currency arguments, etc etc... currency is only one aspect of bitcoin, and surely one of the features is that it can be a currency... but it can also be a storage of value.

Bitcoin is being used in a variety of areas nowdays wit increasing number of vendors and also various credit card like additions that will allow people to pay with bitcoin and the merchant may not know it because they receive cash. you can use bitcoin to pay anywhere people are willing to accept bitcoin... and there are some services, including circle that there are no fees, and buying and selling is the same rate, which can cause fairly seemless paying with bitcoin, once the recipient is set up.




(12-15-2015 03:10 AM)whateverfuckit Wrote:  With that said, I will take my leave. Your investments are none of my business.

Well yeah... it does seem that you are sticking your nose in without any good reason except maybe to lecture guys following this thread.... and also making a bunch of mainstream arguments against bitcoin that have been addressed a multitude of times in this thread.
SunW · 2015-12-15 07:08:00 · #2413
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!
Quote:As recently as September 2014, the Fed pledged to eventually "hold no more securities than necessary," in its "normalization" plan, a level widely interpreted as close to its pre-crisis $900 billion size.

Today as the long-anticipated rate lift-off draws close, the central bank appears to be warming to the idea of a sizeable balance sheet.
"Look, we're not changing our mind about what we said we were going to do. We've just recently decided that we're not going to do what we said." LMAO!

My economist friends are beginning to realize I was right - the Fed can't do what it had said. They were "shocked" by this admission. I so so so agree with whateverfuckit, when you compare the integrity of the Federal Reserve and the US monetary system to bitcoin, obviously the Federal Reserve can be trusted to do the right thing.
DamienCasanova · 2015-12-15 10:50:00 · #2414
The "Wright is Nakamoto" story gets weirder....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-14...more-valua

Last Wednesday, we brought you the story of Craig Steven Wright who was “outed” by Wired and Gizmodo as Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous founder of bitcoin.

Hours after two articles pegged Wright as the man behind the myth, Australian authorities moved in, raiding the residence “Cold fish Craig” (as he was known in his neighborhood) rented with his wife and conducting searches and interviews at his businesses.

Apparently, Australian tax authorities had questioned Wright in the past and according to a number of sources (and documents obtained by Wired and Gizmodo), there appears to have been some manner of dispute over how his bitcoin holdings should be taxed. The attention accorded to Wright on the heels of the two articles published late last Tuesday might have prompted the ATO to move in once and for all, although authorities claimed at the time that there was no connection between the new “revelations” about Wright’s identity and the raids.

Now, we get the latest twist in what is already a fairly bizarre story, as The Australian says that in May of 2013, Wright attempted to buy some $85 million in gold and software from Mark Ferrier, who at the time was working on a deal whereby his MJF Mining would obtain 50% of the gold discovered by ASX-listed goldminer Paynes Find Gold.

Apparently, Paynes needed machinery which Ferrier - via MJF - was willing to provide in exchange for a claim on any future discoveries. According to the Australian, “Mr Ferrier is alleged to have told Mr Wright gold was good security in the event the ‘funny money’ of Bitcoin failed.” Here’s what supposedly happened next:

Mr Wright has alleged payments were made in August 2013 of $38.8m — then the equivalent of 245,103 Bitcoin — for Siemens software and gold from Paynes. He then claimed payments were made to Mr Ferrier of $20.3m — or 135,100 Bitcoin — in September 2013 for the “core software” from Al-Baraka. In September that year Mr Ferrier was arrested in Perth and the gold partnership with Paynes was discontinued.



In December 2013 Mr Wright filed actions in the Federal Court and NSW Supreme Court suing for his share of the gold, claiming the sum of $84.42m based on the market value of the alleged Bitcoin payments for the gold.

Paynes' annual financial report for the year ending June 30, 2014 contains the following passage about the partnership:

The company terminated a mining services and profit sharing agreement with MJF on October 1, 2013. Mr. Mark Ferrier has lodged a statement of claim with the District Court of New South Wales, claiming an amount of $279,621 related to the loss of profits from the small scale mining.The company considers the claim to be completely false.

Here's an excerpt from a transcript of an ATO meeting that tells part of the story (this is from a John Chesher, who was Wright's accountant):

Craig Wright was speaking in a conference in Melbourne. He was giving a talk about Bitcoins and mining. He was then approached by a man by the name of Mark Ferrier and that was how they met. This was how the relationship was formed. They started talking. Craig Wright told Mark Ferrier that he wanted to start up a Bitcoin bank. They then started emailing. Mark Ferrier told him that he knew someone who could help him start up the bank. This was all done in early June 2013. Everything was done very quickly- most of it was done in one weekend. Craig Wright, with the help of Mark Ferrier, agreed to purchase banking software from Al Baraka. Mark Ferrier also convinced him to purchase gold ore.


He also offered Ian Ferrier’s services to Mark Ferrier. Ian Ferrier is Mark Ferrier’s father. Before engaging in Mark Ferrier’s services, Craig Wright had conducted lots of checks on him and everything came up clean. So in essence, Craig Wright wanted the banking software and Mark Ferrier wanted Bitcoins. Around mid-July/August,

Craig Wright released funds from an entity located in the UK to MJF Consulting. This was all going through a server located in Central West Africa. Mark Ferrier was then arrested in September 2013. Craig Wright then started to take action to protect his own rights. Your director, Des McMaster has informed us that ASIC documents show that Mark Ferrier was only put on as a director for one day. Craig Wright then contacted Pitcher Partners in Brisbane and asked them for an explanation. We found out that Mark Ferrier was never a director. The address that he had on ASIC was false as well. Craig Wright was able to get hold of the banking software and automation system. He has everything but not the gold ore. He was expected to receive the gold ore in 2015 but now that’s not happening as the gold can’t be delivered.


Craig Wright has also contacted Ian Ferrier. Ian Ferrier advised us that he has not spoken to Mark Ferrier for 2 years and wants nothing to do with him. We have a case against MJF Consulting with the Supreme Court of NSW and also the Federal Court. The case with the Federal Court is for deceptive conduct against Mark Ferrier personally as an individual.


Due diligence was conducted on Mark Ferrier before we engaged him. We have done all we could to protect ourselves. If you look at the transactions made, you will see that every transaction was pegged against the currency exchange rate at the time. Craig Wright has already advised you that the accounting method for this personal enterprise should be changed from cash to accruals. The accounts should be on accruals from the start of the 2013 income year. Craig Wright has previously informed the ATO of this. We have previously been dealing with ATO officers from different sites at first, e.g. some initial work was being conducted from the Hurstville office, Brisbane office etc. But then Des McMaster made a decision for all the audits to be done from Parramatta. The audits were then being conducted by Celso. I am uncomfortable with the fact that Des McMaster is looking after these audits. We have had past dealings with him in the previous audits.

For those interested in attempting to get to the bottom of this, you can read more here (just use a word search for "Ferrier), and we're sure they'll be much, much more revealed as time goes on, unless of course the Craig Wright story goes the way of all other Satoshi Nakamoto discovery claims (see Newsweek).

What's immediately interesting however is that while Ferrier might not have "actually wanted any Bitcoin," (to quote Wright), it does seem clear that Wright did and still does, want gold.

The takeaway: if you believe Wright is Satoshi, then the founder of bitcoin is skeptical enough of his creation's intrinsic value compared to hard assets that he was at one time willing to trade a sizeable portion of his cryptocurrency wealth for physical gold.

Trade - or "mine", as it were - accordingly.
SunW · 2015-12-15 13:17:00 · #2415
Craight Wright isn't Satoshi.

The real purpose of labeling Wright as Satoshi was as I put it:
Quote:The real reason for discovering the bitcoin founder is to smear the idea - that's what they really want. Look how many media stories now are writing "He invented bitcoin to avoid taxes" or "He created bitcoin because he's bankrupt." None of them realize the idea's value; these people are completely incapable of thought.
And you quote media saying, "See, even he knew it was a scam; he bought gold!" So let's review:
  • Satoshi created bitcoin because he's bankrupt.
  • Satoshi created bitcoin to avoid taxes.
  • Satoshi created bitcoin to scam people.
  • Satoshi created bitcoin because I don't know basic economics.

And I'm going to believe all of this cuz journalists said so!

If Craig Wright bought gold at the time that that article states, that means bitcoin was around $100ish while gold was in the $1500-1600 range. No wonder the stupid fuck is bankrupt.
JayJuanGee · 2015-12-15 13:29:00 · #2416
(12-15-2015 01:17 PM)SunW Wrote:  Craight Wright isn't Satoshi.

The real purpose of labeling Wright as Satoshi was as I put it:
Quote:The real reason for discovering the bitcoin founder is to smear the idea - that's what they really want. Look how many media stories now are writing "He invented bitcoin to avoid taxes" or "He created bitcoin because he's bankrupt." None of them realize the idea's value; these people are completely incapable of thought.
And you quote media saying, "See, even he knew it was a scam; he bought gold!" So let's review:
  • Satoshi created bitcoin because he's bankrupt.
  • Satoshi created bitcoin to avoid taxes.
  • Satoshi created bitcoin to scam people.
  • Satoshi created bitcoin because I don't know basic economics.

And I'm going to believe all of this cuz journalists said so!

If Craig Wright bought gold at the time that that article states, that means bitcoin was around $100ish while gold was in the $1500-1600 range. No wonder the stupid fuck is bankrupt.

The amount of attention of this Craig Wright matter is beginning to seem like a purposeful distraction - at least something for mainstream media and various bear trolls to latch onto to attempt to achieve a variety of purposes, including at least the following:

1) denigrate bitcoin (including maybe attempting to bring down the upwardly bound price)
2) pursue distracting topics
3) circulate some disinformation (or FUD spreading) regarding bitcoin
SunW · 2015-12-16 09:01:00 · #2417
There's a possibility that metals are up because the Fed has leaked its intentions to not raise rates. Today might be an interesting day for bitcoin as well.
JayJuanGee · 2015-12-16 11:37:00 · #2418
(12-16-2015 09:01 AM)SunW Wrote:  There's a possibility that metals are up because the Fed has leaked its intentions to not raise rates. Today might be an interesting day for bitcoin as well.


I believe that the official announcement is at 11am eastern time, and some question answer commentary after 11:30am... so whatever announcement could cause some reaction - especially if it either varies from the leaks or if it has not already been factored in because of the leak
JayJuanGee · 2015-12-16 11:58:00 · #2419
(12-16-2015 11:37 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(12-16-2015 09:01 AM)SunW Wrote:  There's a possibility that metals are up because the Fed has leaked its intentions to not raise rates. Today might be an interesting day for bitcoin as well.


I believe that the official announcement is at 11am eastern time, and some question answer commentary after 11:30am... so whatever announcement could cause some reaction - especially if it either varies from the leaks or if it has not already been factored in because of the leak



Based on the article that you provided and the potential that the news has already been priced in by the big players, I get the sense that the announcement is going to be uneventful.....

On the other hand surely these kinds of announcements can be used as ways to cause hesitancy in the various affected markets and also to thereafter cause exaggerated effect if there is some nugget of (feigned) "surprise" in the announcement.
SunW · 2015-12-16 14:30:00 · #2420
Bitcoin just saw it's first interest rate increase. And it didn't care.

This is what I wanted to see because it tells me more about who is using bitcoin. Great day for bitcoin users everywhere!
BBinger · 2015-12-17 01:17:00 · #2421
(12-15-2015 01:29 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  The amount of attention of this Craig Wright matter is beginning to seem like a purposeful distraction - at least something for mainstream media and various bear trolls to latch onto to attempt to achieve a variety of purposes, including at least the following:

1) denigrate bitcoin (including maybe attempting to bring down the upwardly bound price)
2) pursue distracting topics
3) circulate some disinformation (or FUD spreading) regarding bitcoin

Hoaxtoshi's attention whoring popped up on the radar earlier this Fall. The simplest motivation behind his act seems to be he was using the nonsensical "trust" as loan collateral. He definitely has that record of doing stupid shit around Bitcoin roughly late 2011-2013.

Let us all never forget that time Zero Hedge earnestly promoted Dogecoin.
SunW · 2015-12-20 11:30:00 · #2422
(12-16-2015 02:30 PM)SunW Wrote:  Bitcoin just saw it's first interest rate increase. And it didn't care.

This is what I wanted to see because it tells me more about who is using bitcoin. Great day for bitcoin users everywhere!

This morning, bitcoin finally felt a 4% correction (though it's recovering off an on from it). I suspect this may be the reason behind this morning's correction. It might be spun as related to interest rates, but bitcoin didn't react at all to the Fed this week.

It will be interesting to see what REIT funds do now. They may jump.
JayJuanGee · 2015-12-20 14:37:00 · #2423
(12-20-2015 11:30 AM)SunW Wrote:  
(12-16-2015 02:30 PM)SunW Wrote:  Bitcoin just saw it's first interest rate increase. And it didn't care.

This is what I wanted to see because it tells me more about who is using bitcoin. Great day for bitcoin users everywhere!

This morning, bitcoin finally felt a 4% correction (though it's recovering off an on from it). I suspect this may be the reason behind this morning's correction. It might be spun as related to interest rates, but bitcoin didn't react at all to the Fed this week.

It will be interesting to see what REIT funds do now. They may jump.


Don't get me wrong, SunW. I do believe that there can be some value to discuss various bitcoin price performance dynamics in connection with various other broader macro-economic dynamics.. especially related to monetary policy dynamics or any dynamics connected with storage and/or transfer of value dynamics. At the same time, your earlier recognition that bitcoin prices did not directly react to the announced interest rate "hike" seems to be on point.

Certainly, my thoughts are not original in this regard, and when BTC prices had been hovering largely in the $450 to $465 range for about a wee on relatively moderate levels of trade volume, there was building considerable tension for a break out in either direction... but even though we are really considering that BTC has transitioned into a bull market, there is pretty decent rationale (and even more so after the fact) that a downward correction and/or profit-taking was not too out of the ordinary regarding expectations.

That downward BTC price correction could have coincidentally (and maybe opportunistically) occurred at time of the Fed announcement (which could have confused us regarding correlation and causation). The fact of the matter remains that BTC prices had been sitting stable within the price range of approximately 100% appreciation on a three month time horizon,and even though it seems that continued upward is in the coming month or two, it would not necessarily be unreasonable to experience either a short period of downward or even some flatward direction for some time.

Personally, I would feel better for my own overall BTC portfolio if prices were to continue upwards, but I also believe that anything above $300 or $320 is fairly bullish, and I am really doubtful even if below $350 is anywhere in the near future, absent some fairly substantial negative developments... We have been continuing to see a lot of good news and developments in the bitcoin space, and whatever bad news have seemed as sort of blips on the radar in comparison.

Today's trade volume is certainly picking up pretty decently in this $440-ish price range, so we may continue to see some interesting price movements and/or action through this week and possibly taking us through the end of the year with continued increasing trade volume and ongoing volatility. I get the sense that the bitcoin space is NOWhERE near agreement, at this time, concerning BTC's price.
JayJuanGee · 2015-12-25 20:29:00 · #2424
We haven't seen too much action in Bitcoin's price movements in recent days....


For my manual BTC buys, below is my tentative buying plan at the moment, if price goes in that direction:

$409.00 1.22249389 $500.00
$414.00 1.20772947 $500.00
$419.00 1.19331742 $500.00
$424.00 1.41509434 $600.00
$429.00 1.39860140 $600.00
$434.00 0.92165899 $400.00
$438.00 0.79908676 $350.00
$443.00 0.45146727 $200.00
$448.00 0.66964286 $300.00
$453.00 0.66225166 $300.00



Below is my tentative current selling plan, for manual sells, if the price goes in that direction:


$464.00 $500.00 1.077586207
$472.00 $500.00 1.059322034
$478.00 $500.00 1.046025105
$482.00 $500.00 1.037344398
$489.00 $1,000.00 2.044989775
$499.00 $1,000.00 2.004008016


If the price moves fast in one direction or another, then I refrain from action and either lump my buys or sells or otherwise tweak my plan considering my anticipation of then upcoming price movements.
SunW · 2015-12-26 10:36:00 · #2425
Finally have some negative direction. I hope bitcoin continues to fall as I'd like to snap up some more in the $100-200 range. I still think it will be a while before we get there though.
JayJuanGee · 2015-12-26 12:09:00 · #2426
(12-26-2015 10:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Finally have some negative direction. I hope bitcoin continues to fall as I'd like to snap up some more in the $100-200 range. I still think it will be a while before we get there though.


Your comment seems quite premature.

Your valuation and price projection seems quite detached from the reality of the current situation, because I doubt that the current downward price correction (currently down to $412 from $455, yesterday) rises to the level of a trend reversal...

Accordingly, I believe that we remain in a bull market, and you would be lucky to pick up coins for less than $350.

On the other hand, if prices were to go below $320 in this current downward correction, I would reassess my current assertion regarding the bull market status.

I do agree that due to the smallness of its nature, the BTC market continues to experience over correction and extremes...
HD668B · 2015-12-26 12:36:00 · #2427
No idea why this thread isn't closed yet, with guys wishing their investment would go lower so they can average-down again (maybe to finally get out of the trade) ?!?!
And the second somebody else gives a different opinion, he is censored since "he doesnt even own bitcoins".
JayJuanGee · 2015-12-26 13:09:00 · #2428
(12-26-2015 12:36 PM)HD668B Wrote:  No idea why this thread isn't closed yet, with guys wishing their investment would go lower so they can average-down again (maybe to finally get out of the trade) ?!?!
And the second somebody else gives a different opinion, he is censored since "he doesnt even own bitcoins".


Any guy having an experienced-based opinion regarding bitcoin or his investment in it or considering investment in it, is welcome to assert it in this thread.

There is no dominant school of thought in this thread regarding BTC investment strategies or approaches, even though I have my own various opinions that I have asserted from time to time in various parts of this thread and you have apparently read some of my various opinions, and maybe you even disagree with my investment approach, but you are not exactly getting to the substance of your disagreement(s), if any.

I don't understand how supposed censoring has been taking place in this thread, except for some choices of guys not to participate, and possibly your assertion to shut the thread down seems to approach some semblance of censorship.
JayJuanGee · 2015-12-26 14:10:00 · #2429
(12-26-2015 12:36 PM)HD668B Wrote:  No idea why this thread isn't closed yet, with guys wishing their investment would go lower so they can average-down again (maybe to finally get out of the trade) ?!?!
And the second somebody else gives a different opinion, he is censored since "he doesnt even own bitcoins".

Actually, upon further reflection, there is a tiny bit of substance in your earlier post and that touches upon whether, given the current downward BTC price actions, waiting for BTC prices to fall below $200 is a reasonable approach for anyone who recognizes various paradigm changing contributions of bitcoin.

You gotta consider that BTC prices were pushed down in mid-to-late 2014 and held down for 8-9 months of 2015... accordingly, there were a lot of opportunities to get "cheap coins" during most of 2015 and to dollar cost average down any BTC holdings that guys may have had over the years, if they happen to be longer term BTC investors.

Furthermore, the 19 weeks of BTC trade volume upsurge that began around late August 2015 that BTC prices briefly dipped to $198, rose to the level of a trend change from a bear market to a bull market.

And probably, we do not realize whether we have transitioned from bear market to bull market until sometime after the fact, and in this case, I would argue that it became clear that we had transitioned into a bull market around late November, when we experienced the second crossing over of $350.... Whether the bull market will hold may be another story.

Surely, we could wait for sub $200 coins, but to me, that perspective seems too pie in the sky and a better BTC investment strategy, to me anyhow, especially in what seems to be a bull market, seems to be to invest at various price points (including even now), and do not get too greedy and wait too long for the price to come down further, because the general BTC price trend seems to be currently up (even though at the moment we are experiencing a downward price correction).

Accordingly, if you do not wait too long to get into BTC, then you have some investment in BTC, and you can at least sell some off from time to time, if you feel that the price is getting too hot and too high.

No matter what investing in BTC seems risky and I have always been a proponent of some variation and individually tailored version of dollar cost averaging (at least during my participation in this thread), rather than attempting to time and to invest in BTC balls to the walls, which certainly a large number of guys in this forum seem to be quite receptive and willing to embark upon balls to the walls investing strategies in bitcoin... which certainly is their prerogative.
SunW · 2015-12-26 14:14:00 · #2430
(12-26-2015 12:36 PM)HD668B Wrote:  No idea why this thread isn't closed yet, with guys wishing their investment would go lower so they can average-down again (maybe to finally get out of the trade) ?!?!

What are you, some spineless triggered Yale student? If you want something closed because you disagree, you have some hard days ahead.

Quote:And the second somebody else gives a different opinion, he is censored since "he doesnt even own bitcoins".

Who's he? I don't know of anyone being censored.
thisisright · 2015-12-26 15:40:00 · #2431
I have "very-high-stakes" in bitcoin. The following ideas concern only-me. Take your own responsibility if you ever believed/followed them.

- I believe bitcoin price right now is determined by miners selling pressure vs. demand. Miners probably sell 70-80% of their daily btc.

- Demand for bitcoin is very unstable. It rose lately -$500 peak- (which made people think it was a bubble). The reason it went back quickly is due to miners selling pressure. Miners need to sell quickly to pay electricity bills.

- I've talked with a mining guy (high hashing power) and he said they sell the bitcoins they mine as soon as they get them. They have no interest in speculating/investing. They are just here for business. I think most miners are like him.

- The reason we went to $500 -> $350 -> $480 -> $420 (today) is the lack of market making. This is due to: Lack of investors/professional traders and fear and ignorance of bitcoin potential.

- The halving is not priced in. The future is not priced in. Nothing in bitcoin is priced it. It's priced almost daily by supply/demand.

- Most weak hands have already quit the game.

- $1.5million per day of new people getting in is required to keep the current prices. On one hand, it's not a lot of money. On the other hand, it's really a LOT if bitcoin is not getting serious traction. You'll need 10,000 guys daily put $150 into bitcoin to maintain the current prices.

- The halving will result in less supply and make the selling pressure weaker than ever. This will result in a strong bull market and might result in a huge bubble.

- I don't think we are going to see a price bubble (except in the halving) unless a MAJOR event happens that draw dozens of millions to bitcoin.

- price will stabilize around $500-$600 in the half of the next year. It'll double after halving and stay above $1,000.

- If price hit $1,000 I'll sell at least 50% of my holdings. If price hit $1,500 I'm very unlikely to remain in the game.

Have a nice day gentlemen!
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