(11-04-2015 01:21 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 12:57 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  If the things coming out of China are correct, we might see this continue to rise. There's 11 trillion Yuan in savings accounts in China. Imagine if just 2-3% of that goes into bitcoin.

Can you expand on that, is there a big Chinese push for Bitcoins right now?

Supposedly yes, Zerohedge has been pushing that narrative:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-04...ss-chinese

They even called it in September too hinting that China was planning on instituting capital controls. There's been a subtle surge since then.

Graph from ZH:

(11-04-2015 12:48 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  My God, I was researching this yesterday and about to buy some but wanted to wait a bit to see how it was trending. It was under $400, like $388-$390, now I come back today and it's up $100. Crazy ass market, you go to sleep for 8 hours you can lose your ass with this shit.

It's almost back down to that price right now, so there ya' go ($391 preev).

I want to bookmark this post in this thread. Very interesting. I'll have to think more about this - he's right, though. The paper is very similar, and yet was written by none other than the NSA.

I'll be curious to see on November 6th if his other theory turns out to be true.

(11-04-2015 10:06 AM)DeeDee Wrote:  The recent coverage by mainstream media will only help increasing the price. Buying now is a risk (that is, if you CAN buy right now), but given the past it will not bungee jump before media coverage has dried out. I suspect it will hit 700 - at least - before the end of the week.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin

hahahahaha

That's a funny term,.... "bungee jump".....

We've been experiencing some bungee jumping today, yet I am thinking that such bungee jumping is a bit less, extreme than it could be, even though it's not over yet.

The $502 high of this morning likely caused considerable excitement amongst the vast majority of people following BTC price movements.

(11-04-2015 11:34 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  So you are in the green now JJG?

In accordance with Stamp prices, on paper, I was in the green for about 30 minutes during the above $500 period. hahahahahaha. However, if I had been able to cash out all of my holdings through Circle, my portfolio was in the black several times during about a five hour window.

I understand that sometimes guys give a lot of attention to whether investment holdings are in the black or in the red, but really all along I had considered my investment in bitcoin as something that compliments my other investments (and really as a hedge), and I have been learning a lot through my bitcoin investment and various tinkerings around with it.

I am fairly certain that my creation of a trading plan and my subsequent bitcoin trading activities is going to bring my average price per BTC down much below $500 over the coming months, as long as BTC does NOT sink way below $200, again....

Anyhow, I seem to have a pretty solid BTC trading system in place that I have been putting into practice since about $250, and this considerable volatility in a variety of unexpected directions has been a very good test for putting my plan into practice and tweaking it.

I expect that my practicing of my BTC trading plan in the coming months is likely going to yield really decent results NO matter the direction of the BTC market (except surely, it would be much harder to protect myself against the possibility of BTC going to zero - except for possibly if I were to recognize such scenario before others and being able to cash out of BTC after such recognition and before others... hahahaha).

bitcoin is just so damn useful I have a hard time seeing it lose significant value again. banking red tape in USA is only getting worse, and apparently Chinese people will start using it as a convenient alternative.

if even a tiny fraction of Chinese started owning bitcoin that would drive the price a lot higher. I think a bad economy only helps bitcoin

(11-04-2015 11:34 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  So you are in the green now JJG?

By the way, Satoshi.

I am NOT sure if you have any meaningful excuse after the price performance of bitcoin over the past week or so, and really seeing the signs of things to come over the past few days.

You should have seen an enormous dip and you should have jumped back in, even if you are jumping in in the upper $300s...

You should be able to recognize that there is really good and really likely upward momentum in the coming weeks and possibly months, if not longer.

So, did you get back in or not?

(11-04-2015 07:31 PM)SunW Wrote:  I want to bookmark this post in this thread. Very interesting. I'll have to think more about this - he's right, though. The paper is very similar, and yet was written by none other than the NSA.

I'll be curious to see on November 6th if his other theory turns out to be true.

The book marked "very interesting" link sounds like pure non-sense to me, and even within the text, it asserts that it is "pure speculation."

pure-speculation = pure non-sense - unless, there is some reasonable basis in reality.



The second article is nonsense, too.

Seems like you, SunW, and your self-proclaimed bitcoin skeptic buddy need to do a little more researching into bitcoin, rather than spreading around pure non-sense fud spreading speculation that makes little to no sense in the whole scheme of things.

(11-05-2015 02:45 AM)Disco_Volante Wrote:  bitcoin is just so damn useful I have a hard time seeing it lose significant value again. banking red tape in USA is only getting worse, and apparently Chinese people will start using it as a convenient alternative.

if even a tiny fraction of Chinese started owning bitcoin that would drive the price a lot higher. I think a bad economy only helps bitcoin

There are a lot of reasons for BTC prices to go up considerably and even to skyrocket from here, and the Chinese situation is only a part of the package of reasons.

Dang we got zinged by profit taking. I wonder if the rally will continue...

(11-05-2015 02:46 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 11:34 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  So you are in the green now JJG?

By the way, Satoshi.

I am NOT sure if you have any meaningful excuse after the price performance of bitcoin over the past week or so, and really seeing the signs of things to come over the past few days.

You should have seen an enormous dip and you should have jumped back in, even if you are jumping in in the upper $300s...

You should be able to recognize that there is really good and really likely upward momentum in the coming weeks and possibly months, if not longer.

So, did you get back in or not?

Nope I didn't. This looks a lot like the litecoin pump in July. This is all very entertaining though.

I sold off a little bit just to take some profits. I don't want to miss out on any potential quick rise like back in 2013 but the way things have been going the past year it seems like the thing to do is loadup when its low, ride it to the high dump coins and wait for the next fall. I got a stash of coins I'm keeping for the longterm but like swing tradin as well when we ggot this up and down thing going on.

(11-05-2015 03:21 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  Dang we got zinged by profit taking. I wonder if the rally will continue...

None of us now the know the price direction for sure, but if you study the charts, you should be able to decern that these are truly interesting times for bitcoin. The volume is humungous, and surely no small set of entities can really contain the price of bitcoin for very long.

Just like a lot of other people watching the price direction of bitcoin, I really am not sure, yet we should all understand that big financial interests are participating in the fed bitcoin auction today, and there may be some incentive on the margins for some of those big players to attempt to control, to some extent the price of bitcoin during the auction. after the auction, there may be some release, which may cause the price to go upward. no guarantees of course.

(11-05-2015 12:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(11-05-2015 03:21 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  Dang we got zinged by profit taking. I wonder if the rally will continue...

None of us now the know the price direction for sure, but if you study the charts, you should be able to decern that these are truly interesting times for bitcoin. The volume is humungous, and surely no small set of entities can really contain the price of bitcoin for very long.

Just like a lot of other people watching the price direction of bitcoin, I really am not sure, yet we should all understand that big financial interests are participating in the fed bitcoin auction today, and there may be some incentive on the margins for some of those big players to attempt to control, to some extent the price of bitcoin during the auction. after the auction, there may be some release, which may cause the price to go upward. no guarantees of course.

Agreed, after playing with penny stocks what appeared to happen was some clear profit taking occurring. The volume was staggering though I'm holding onto my GBTC shares in my account. Initially the loss today was rough but it retracked quite a bit. The current loss i have is acceptable. I'm planning on holding until Monday. Hopefully we can see some extra love.

(11-05-2015 05:32 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(11-05-2015 02:46 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(11-04-2015 11:34 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  So you are in the green now JJG?

By the way, Satoshi.

I am NOT sure if you have any meaningful excuse after the price performance of bitcoin over the past week or so, and really seeing the signs of things to come over the past few days.

You should have seen an enormous dip and you should have jumped back in, even if you are jumping in in the upper $300s...

You should be able to recognize that there is really good and really likely upward momentum in the coming weeks and possibly months, if not longer.

So, did you get back in or not?

Nope I didn't. This looks a lot like the litecoin pump in July. This is all very entertaining though.

Now, you are really talking like a novice.

I understand that you are a bit disgruntled about Bitcoin and the nearly two year long bear market that appears to have concluded, and possibly even a bit butt hurt regarding your own situation to sell at a pretty low point where you should have either been holding or buying; however, you should realize that Bitcoin is not litecoin, and you are in almost pure denial when you attempt to make such analogies.

The whole situation of the past week is not only entertaining, it is considerably enticing... and a guy does not have to play balls to the walls investing to take part in a situation that has considerable upside potential.

You can invest $100, $500, $1000 or $10,000 and see what happens. You do not have to mortgage your house in order to participate in this bitcoin situation... especially if you already have the knowledge and the various accounts set up. Furthermore, if you invest at reasonable levels and keep your total investment portfolio diversified, then you will not become too attached to the success or failure of one particular asset.

(11-05-2015 09:41 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  I sold off a little bit just to take some profits. I don't want to miss out on any potential quick rise like back in 2013 but the way things have been going the past year it seems like the thing to do is loadup when its low, ride it to the high dump coins and wait for the next fall. I got a stash of coins I'm keeping for the longterm but like swing tradin as well when we ggot this up and down thing going on.

That sounds like a fairly decent plan.

I think that we need to prepare, to the best of our ability for the price to go in either direction, and if you are also calculating in the possibility for a late 2013-like rise, then that is especially good. Sometimes people get too caught up in the more recent history, and with bitcoin, it is better to look at it also from the longer term.

If a guy only looks at what occurred from early 2014 to present, then he would increase his chances of employing an incorrect and overly bearish investment strategy.

(11-05-2015 01:08 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  

(11-05-2015 12:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(11-05-2015 03:21 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  Dang we got zinged by profit taking. I wonder if the rally will continue...

None of us now the know the price direction for sure, but if you study the charts, you should be able to decern that these are truly interesting times for bitcoin. The volume is humungous, and surely no small set of entities can really contain the price of bitcoin for very long.

Just like a lot of other people watching the price direction of bitcoin, I really am not sure, yet we should all understand that big financial interests are participating in the fed bitcoin auction today, and there may be some incentive on the margins for some of those big players to attempt to control, to some extent the price of bitcoin during the auction. after the auction, there may be some release, which may cause the price to go upward. no guarantees of course.

Agreed, after playing with penny stocks what appeared to happen was some clear profit taking occurring. The volume was staggering though I'm holding onto my GBTC shares in my account. Initially the loss today was rough but it retracked quite a bit. The current loss i have is acceptable. I'm planning on holding until Monday. Hopefully we can see some extra love.

Hey Beast. Is that your only investment in BTC? You should consider some various ways to directly invest in BTC in order to have greater flexibility. I understand that sometimes guys do not want to pay that close attention, but it may give you some greater control and some greater utility to have at least a small amount of BTC in various accounts.... even if it is merely $100 or so per account.

(11-05-2015 01:18 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(11-05-2015 01:08 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  

(11-05-2015 12:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(11-05-2015 03:21 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  Dang we got zinged by profit taking. I wonder if the rally will continue...

None of us now the know the price direction for sure, but if you study the charts, you should be able to decern that these are truly interesting times for bitcoin. The volume is humungous, and surely no small set of entities can really contain the price of bitcoin for very long.

Just like a lot of other people watching the price direction of bitcoin, I really am not sure, yet we should all understand that big financial interests are participating in the fed bitcoin auction today, and there may be some incentive on the margins for some of those big players to attempt to control, to some extent the price of bitcoin during the auction. after the auction, there may be some release, which may cause the price to go upward. no guarantees of course.

Agreed, after playing with penny stocks what appeared to happen was some clear profit taking occurring. The volume was staggering though I'm holding onto my GBTC shares in my account. Initially the loss today was rough but it retracked quite a bit. The current loss i have is acceptable. I'm planning on holding until Monday. Hopefully we can see some extra love.

Hey Beast. Is that your only investment in BTC? You should consider some various ways to directly invest in BTC in order to have greater flexibility. I understand that sometimes guys do not want to pay that close attention, but it may give you some greater control and some greater utility to have at least a small amount of BTC in various accounts.... even if it is merely $100 or so per account.

I have a few bitcoins that I am planning on using for... other things. It's the only reason I realized there was a bitcoin rally. However I don't have enough free cash to play with to capture any swings through the exchanges and quite honestly I don't really trust the major exchanges especially with what happened to Mt. Gox and the like of those companies even though I get the impression Coinbase isn't going anywhere.

I had some free cash in my IRA and decided to play this swing trade. I wouldn't call my stake an "investment" in any sense of the word. I'd call it a speculation. I definitely can see the value of this sky rocketing during some sort of market collapse or a sovereign currency crisis (Greece, China, etc) which would make for a ripe profit taking opportunity. Over the long term, I'd keep my cash and investments in USD or GBP .

Actually, the Fed Auction ends in about 15 minutes... here's a link to the notice

http://www.usmarshals.gov/news/chron/2015/100515.htm

(11-05-2015 01:31 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I have a few bitcoins that I am planning on using for... other things. It's the only reason I realized there was a bitcoin rally. However I don't have enough free cash to play with to capture any swings through the exchanges and quite honestly I don't really trust the major exchanges especially with what happened to Mt. Gox and the like of those companies even though I get the impression Coinbase isn't going anywhere.

I had some free cash in my IRA and decided to play this swing trade. I wouldn't call my stake an "investment" in any sense of the word. I'd call it a speculation. I definitely can see the value of this sky rocketing during some sort of market collapse or a sovereign currency crisis (Greece, China, etc) which would make for a ripe profit taking opportunity. Over the long term, I'd keep my cash and investments in USD or GBP .

I can definitely relate to anyone who says that they only have so much capital to invest in any one asset; however, with bitcoin, you create an account, and invest as little as $1.

Regarding exchanges, there is considerable consensus that MT GOX was a fiasco and a really crazy and out of control exchange. And, really, you should not compare a lot of the contemporary exchanges to MT GOX, because there are a whole hell-of-a lot of credible exchanges that have been entering the bitcoin scene... including Coinbase and Circle and Gemini. Even Bitstamp seems to have quite a bit of credibility.

Yes, there may be additional instances of exchange failures and fraud, but those potential instances should not stop guys from taking some steps towards investing what they can and how they see probabilities and expected value (EV).

For example, if you believe that there is a 1% chance that Bitcoin can reach $4000 or more in the future (such as the next 2-4 years) (that is a 10X return), then you should consider putting some proportional amount of your investment into bitcoin - even if you are dollar cost averaging $1 per week into it.... or some other amount that makes you more comfortable.

(11-05-2015 01:09 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Now, you are really talking like a novice.

I understand that you are a bit disgruntled about Bitcoin and the nearly two year long bear market that appears to have concluded, and possibly even a bit butt hurt regarding your own situation to sell at a pretty low point where you should have either been holding or buying; however, you should realize that Bitcoin is not litecoin, and you are in almost pure denial when you attempt to make such analogies.

The whole situation of the past week is not only entertaining, it is considerably enticing... and a guy does not have to play balls to the walls investing to take part in a situation that has considerable upside potential.

You can invest $100, $500, $1000 or $10,000 and see what happens. You do not have to mortgage your house in order to participate in this bitcoin situation... especially if you already have the knowledge and the various accounts set up. Furthermore, if you invest at reasonable levels and keep your total investment portfolio diversified, then you will not become too attached to the success or failure of one particular asset.

The different between litecoin and bitcoin is not big, basically they are almost identical. I think you should know this. $360 now. Do you regret not selling at $500 or are you hoping for another jump up?

I have no intention to buy back into bitcoin for reasons I've already explained in this thread.

(11-06-2015 01:06 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  The different between litecoin and bitcoin is not big, basically they are almost identical. I think you should know this.

Yes, litecoin does not add anything to bitcoin, it is very much an imitation; however, bitcoin came first and has the first comer advantage and the network advantage. lite coin is not really going to take any market share from bitcoin; however, it can more easily be used as a pump and dump because its marketcap is about 3% of bitcoin's. Mere size alone make a considerable difference, in terms of a lot of things, including development around the platform, acceptance and liquidity, etc.

(11-06-2015 01:06 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  $360 now. Do you regret not selling at $500 or are you hoping for another jump up?

Now, you seem to be converting into one of those disgruntled naysayers... suggesting that a person is worse off for not having had traded the market at certain peaks. If you have read even a fraction of my posts, you should realize that I do not roll with balls to the walls style trading.... and I only recently started trading and only a portion of my total holdings.

Accordingly I am currently able to make money no matter the direction of the market. No I do not make as much as someone who can time the market and trade his whole holdings, but I am really not attempting to time in any large sort of way. I am attempting to stic with a fairly conservative approach.

I have allocated sell amounts up the price line and I have preallocated buy amounts down into the $200s. At this point, I do have to continuously make adjustments with my plan and frequently reassess the plan and situation, and I anticipate it will become easier when my portfolio gets into the black - which currently seems like it could occur either from BTC prices rising or by my trading efforts sufficiently bringing down my average cost per BTC. Prices going up would be the quickest way to bring my portfolio into the black, and i have the sense that bitcoin will be going back into the $500s and quite beyond in the near future.... the nearly $200 move up in 24 hours and the extensive price battle that seems to be ongoing in recent days, seem to be very good signs that prices will be moving above $500 soon... but my continued stay in bitcoin does not require BTC prices to go above $500 any time soon. I can keep up my current strategy, too, which seems to be working fairly well for me in the past 4 weeks when the price returned above $250

(11-06-2015 01:06 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  I have no intention to buy back into bitcoin for reasons I've already explained in this thread.

O.k. That's fine. I thought that you said that you had regrets about selling your BTC in the mid-$200s, but if you do not have regrets, then you can stick with your plan to stay out of bitcoin. Surely, that's your choice, and you shouldn't invest in anything that you do not feel optimistic about its prospects - whether short-term or long-term.

Dang looks like I got burned for my GBTC purchase. Very clearly a pump and dump with what happened recently.

(11-06-2015 09:03 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  Dang looks like I got burned for my GBTC purchase. Very clearly a pump and dump with what happened recently.

Yeah i'm glad I didn't jump in right away, after I saw it fly up $100 in a night I knew the crash was coming soon. If it goes back down to $250 or $300 i'd probably jump in though

(11-06-2015 09:03 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  Dang looks like I got burned for my GBTC purchase. Very clearly a pump and dump with what happened recently.

If GBTC largely follows BTC prices, then I would hardly characterize recent events as a "pump and dump."

Surely there is considerable volatility in recent times, and each of us needs to determine the extent to which we are investing long term or short term. In recent days, hundreds of millions of dollars of value (and even into the billions if you credit some of the Chinese trading) has been trading on a daily basis. It's well over ten times, but if you look at the weekly graphs, this week is approaching 30 x normal volume. The trading activity is a bit parabolic, and really it does NOT appear to be done soon, accordingly, a lot of money is likely to be made during these times of volatility, and especially the ones who are purely guessing and acting on short term emotions are likely to get burned first and worst.