(08-26-2015 12:19 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  To me it seems that to date, so far, there is little to no evidence that the appearance of possible Bitfinex shenanigans is approaching MTGOX levels... but I agree that your implication remains correct, and that is that there are opportunities for fraud, and from time to time, there is the appearance of some fishy behaviors.. and also, we may NOT really know or be able to know for sure about whether or if we are being GOXed until it is too late.

Depending on how deep you want to go down the rabbit whole you can read up on Zhou Tong's Bitcoinica source code upon which Bitfinex is based (The code was "Open Sourced"). In a lot of ways Bitfinex's earliest history is still more shady than Gox's but Bitfinex has so far persisted by being smaller until recently.

Very recently though the fact that there have been negative trading spreads on Bitfinex because orders are being skipped over and chaos is happening all around on their platform is exactly what was seen with Mt Gox in 2013, but became especially noticeable in April 2013. Gox was already well into its Zombie phase by then having lost 400,000 Bitcoin about 2 years earlier.

There are times for taking the agnostic "may or may not know" position. Should I try this restaurant is one. Bitfinex at the moment seems like more of a checking to see if a gun in loaded by looking down the barrel situation. You have to remember a lot of the people who seriously lost in the Gox collpase had been trying to get out of Gox since late 2012 and occasionally earlier. There's even a lot of similarity in the excuses with the whole "servers aren't scaling up to the volume" spiel.

(08-26-2015 09:29 PM)BBinger Wrote:  

(08-26-2015 12:19 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  To me it seems that to date, so far, there is little to no evidence that the appearance of possible Bitfinex shenanigans is approaching MTGOX levels... but I agree that your implication remains correct, and that is that there are opportunities for fraud, and from time to time, there is the appearance of some fishy behaviors.. and also, we may NOT really know or be able to know for sure about whether or if we are being GOXed until it is too late.

Depending on how deep you want to go down the rabbit whole you can read up on Zhou Tong's Bitcoinica source code upon which Bitfinex is based (The code was "Open Sourced"). In a lot of ways Bitfinex's earliest history is still more shady than Gox's but Bitfinex has so far persisted by being smaller until recently.

Very recently though the fact that there have been negative trading spreads on Bitfinex because orders are being skipped over and chaos is happening all around on their platform is exactly what was seen with Mt Gox in 2013, but became especially noticeable in April 2013. Gox was already well into its Zombie phase by then having lost 400,000 Bitcoin about 2 years earlier.

There are times for taking the agnostic "may or may not know" position. Should I try this restaurant is one. Bitfinex at the moment seems like more of a checking to see if a gun in loaded by looking down the barrel situation. You have to remember a lot of the people who seriously lost in the Gox collpase had been trying to get out of Gox since late 2012 and occasionally earlier. There's even a lot of similarity in the excuses with the whole "servers aren't scaling up to the volume" spiel.

Point taken. You, BBinger, seem to have looked into this matter more than me; however, for quite a long time a lot of us have suspected quite a bit of shenanigans with a lot of the chinese (whether mainland or hongkong or not) exchanges in terms of their volume and that there had been admissions that some of the volume was NOT real. In any event, if there is faking of volume, then sometimes there may be some fractional reserve shenanigans as well.

I doubt that I am purposefully playing agnostic, I am just attempting to figure out the extent to which some of the problems with the bitfinex exchange was playing into the downward price pressures, along with the other factors that I mentioned. Surely with any exchange, bitcoin can get into trouble when the exchange owners lack integrity and maybe are being irresponsible with the funds of their users.... but possibly more than 95% of the various exchanges and other entities that are holding the coins of supposed bitcoin owners are built around various kinds of trust systems and accordingly centralization... therefore, I already understand the law of numbers that causes a certain amount of risk that some of them are going to go rogue from time to time (or otherwise get caught in their ponzi scheme attempts within bitcoin, in which they are NOT safeguarding coins and/or holding as many coins as they claim to have on behalf of their users).

I doubt that a whole hell of a lot of RVF members have coins on Bitfinex, and actually this thread has been pretty inactive since about mid-to-late-2014, when more and more ex-active members in the thread seemed to have become more and more disenchanted with bitcoin. In any event, I can relate, and I understand that some of the guys who had previously been following the thread become a bit more disinterested as their portfolios of bitcoin related ventures went more and more into the red.
Sometimes, there seems to be a tendency for guys to only claim winnings etc or that they are winning in their investment... and surely, difficult to accomplish that in bitcoin in the past more than 18 months....

Anyhow, I have NO real disagreement with your overall point about Bitfinex, and the likelihood that their words do NOT really accurately describe facts, and they are likely trying to keep a sinking ship together - even though it is possible that they may have a different outcome than MTGOX... I don't know.... I guess part of my point is that NO two situations are likely to be exactly alike..

You know the saying that goes something like this: "even though history does NOT repeat itself, it surely does have a tendency to rhyme"

Really, if you review BTC's prices since the beginning of this calendar year, for the most part, the price has been bouncing around between $220 and $290 for a large majority of the time, with a few outbursts outside of that range. Surely, the negative price pressures of the past few weeks causes one to wonder whether there is going to be another push towards the lower $200s, while at the same time, BTC prices have NOT spent too much time below $220 in the past 8 months, and really the previous time that BTC prices were below $220 was October 2013... and in April 2013 - and at those times, those were all time highs of BTC prices never previously seen...

So, up or down, that is the ever present question?

In the last couple of weeks, I kept thinking that there may be another push towards $210-ish and possibly even a bit lower - maybe testing the $200 resistance point... but in the last few days, the BTC bulls have been able to beat back the BTC bears to defend prices remaining above $225.

Over the past few months ive been fairly correct in where the price has moved. I think their might be a small price surge within the coming months but for the most part the price is going to stay around its current point.

Because of the limited news and the stable financial markets at the moment, the only thing someone buying bitcoin can do is predict investor behaviour. I might be buying a few bitcoins again in the next few days.

Holding onto bitcoin long term is very risky which is why I am buying and selling fast when I do get involved. Bitcoin has had a lot of negative press over the years and also the massive speculation in price up to over $1000 a few years ago would have caused many of the less informed investors losing a lot of money leaving only a small amount of smart well informed investors making a lot of money.

If bitcoin is going to have an increase in price back into the $300's and $400+. It needs some news which will really spark investor confidence.

(09-01-2015 07:23 PM)Grind Wrote:  Over the past few months ive been fairly correct in where the price has moved. I think their price be a small price surge within the coming months but for the most part the price is going to stay around its current point.

Because of the limited news and the stable financial markets at the moment, the only thing someone buying bitcoin can do is predict investor behaviour. I might be buying a few bitcoins again in the next few days.

I wouldn't characterize financial markets as stable at the moment, but certainly, I am NO expert. I thought that there has been a considerable decline in China markets, and questions regarding how that decline would affect global markets, and in the last few weeks there was considerable decline, world-wide, with a bit of staving off, yet ongoing concerns regarding whether overall markets are going to fall into a period of decline.

Since you (Grind) are considering buying bitcoin in the near future, it sounds as if you are more convinced that btc prices will be going up, rather than down.... or do you merely consider purchasing of BTC to be a hedge against other investments that you are making?

Any purchases I make of bitcoin will most likely be very short term because I believe (currently) prices have a higher probability of dropping instead of rising. Investor confidence isn't very high right now imo because so many people have lost a lot of money either from exchanges suddenly disappearing or the massive pump and dumps.

When I say stable I mean it in a way that the current financial situation has not had any massive changes for better or worse lately. Something needs to happen if people besides the hardcore believers will begin to reinvest in btc. But I think that relates more to its acceptance and usage in society.

(09-02-2015 08:04 AM)Grind Wrote:  Any purchases I make of bitcoin will most likely be very short term because I believe (currently) prices have a higher probability of dropping instead of rising.

From your profile, I am, presuming that are subject to USA tax laws, and in that regard, I have the sense that the USA tax law interpretation/clarification from March 2014 has created various discincentives for the transactional uses of bitcoin for various purchases, when it asserted that bitcoins should be treated as commodities (like gold).

In that regard, each of us is responsible to report gains/losses when we buy and sell bitcoins. Surely, it is possible, that a guy could get away with ignoring some of these reporting requirements if his gains/losses are somewhat de minimus - maybe a bit lower than $1000 or so for a year

Accordingly, I have engaged in a few practices to hopefully stave off any short-term reporting requirements - however maybe in the future, my reporting requirements may change, in the event that bitcoin were to greatly appreciate in value and I would feel compelled to cash some out to realize some of the gains. wishful thinking?

My practices/considerations have been:

1) immediately replace any bitcoins that I use in the making of purchases in order that I do NOT realize any gain and accordingly do NOT feel any need to report.

2) If I receive bitcoin in a business related transaction (for the payment of a good or service), immediately cash out any amount of that bitcoin that I will be needing within the short term (1-3 months) in order that I do NOT realize any gain. Hold on to any amount that I want to consider as long term investment.

3) Largely attempt to hold any BTC investment for more than a year in order to cash out at the long term capital gains rate (if I were to cash out within the USA - see point #4).

4) Save BTC largely for the purposes of travel and cashing out in overseas locations. My understanding is that gains/losses realized outside of the USA are NOT subject to USA tax reporting requirements.

(09-02-2015 08:04 AM)Grind Wrote:  Investor confidence isn't very high right now imo because so many people have lost a lot of money either from exchanges suddenly disappearing or the massive pump and dumps.

Yes, that makes sense, and you could be correct that there may be a bit more downward price movement in the coming months, even though as I outlined in my earlier post, I have the sense that there has been considerable difficulties in the past couple of years (and especially the past 8 months) to get BTC prices to go below $220 for any extended period... but surely, if there is a continued grinding away at confidence, there could be some potential for prices to go below $220 and to remain there for a while (I remain fairly doubtful of prices going and/or staying below $220 for any extended period longer than a few days, even though this ongoing fork debate seems to have NOT been resolved yet and still causing ongoing wearing on confidence levels)..

(09-02-2015 08:04 AM)Grind Wrote:  When I say stable I mean it in a way that the current financial situation has not had any massive changes for better or worse lately. Something needs to happen if people besides the hardcore believers will begin to reinvest in btc. But I think that relates more to its acceptance and usage in society.

Well, one thing is acceptance and usage; however, another thing is financial calamity. Whether an increase in BTC prices is dependent on increased needs for acceptance and usage or whether any BTC price increase will come from calamity may be subject to differing opinions. I personally think that there are a lot of advancements in BTC infrastructure in order to support increased acceptance and usage, but possibly that increased usage and acceptance will need to be sparked by some kinds of financial calamity...

In any event, each of us seem to be engaged in a certain amount of speculation and guessing regarding the price direction of BTC, because either downward or upward price movements tend to be caused by a variety of factors and combination of factors that are NOT really completely known before hand. In other words, even though a largely bear market has been ongoing in bitcoin for about 18 months or possibly a bit more, it remains unclear, at this point, whether that bear market has yet come to an end.

Some things take time to evolve or to review and to analyze.

For today (at the moment): Stock market down 1.5%, and Bitcoin up 1%.


For the past six months: stock market is currently down 10%, and bitcoin relatively flat - BTC prices have largely been bouncing in a $220 to $290 price range (which is largely a 7% variance in the bulk of the highs and lows of BTC prices).

If a guy were to find $1,000 in a brown paper bag on the street, and he was otherwise settled in his financial matters and he had some money invested in various diversified places (therefore, the $1,000 could be practically used for investing in either BTC or stock market index funds).


At this point, which one (stock market index funds or BTC) would be the better bet for long term or the short term ?

Yes, where to put the $1,000 will depend in part on the guy's overall portfolio and his perception of risk and perception of one of the investments versus the other.

Today I discovered that I had been working with a misunderstanding of the “no fees” policy of Circle.

For some reason, I had thought that there was a buy sell spread; however, recently, I had been considered receiving regular approximately monthly payments in Bitcoin; however, I considered that the regular monthly receipt of Bitcoin was going to likely exceed my ability to spend those bitcoin. Accordingly, I realized that if I were to end up receiving the BTC on a regular monthly basis, then I was going to have to cash out btc into fiat on a regular monthly basis.

Therefore, I studied more closely into Circle's sell rate, and I that point, I had an ah ha moment. It appears that Circle is using the same rate to buy or to sell BTC.

Therefore, there is effectively NO fee on either end (even though their rate seems to be about consistently about 1% higher than the Stamp rate). Furthermore, it also appears that currently I have a $5,000 weekly sell limit on Circle, which is practically unlimited in terms of my anticipated quantity of need to cash out any btc in the near future. WOW!!!!!!

Accordingly, I have concluded that on my end, if i were to receive any regular monthly Bitcoin payment(s) then at the point of receipt of each payment, I would decide whether I wanted to cash out through Circle immediately into my bank account (all or part) or to hold those BTC until a later time.

I'm glad that I was able to clarify this Circle fees matter (at least for my own understanding) because potentially working with btc on a regular basis (up to $5,000 per week through Circle) appears to be much better than I had originally thought.

I find this linked article to be interesting in the comparison and contrast of regulatory attitudes towards bitcoin.....

A major point seems to be that European countries are generally more receptive and friendly towards bitcoin or cryptocurrencies.

http://www.coindesk.com/why-the-future-o...in-europe/

In recent months (maybe coming up upon a year?), I haven't heard any guys proclaim any sure fired ways to make money in Bitcoin.... like to suggest if there is a kind of pattern in trading, for example, the price goes up during the week and goes down during the weekend? That used to be the old pattern that was suspected, which probably still holds true to some small extent, no?

Except, sometimes it is difficult to make money when you plan in one direction, and then the price goes in the other direction and does NOT come back for several weeks... without really being able to detect, exactly when such price movements are going to take place.

Then getting burned a few times will likely cause "Bitcoin traders" to quit such activities.

Ever feel like your talking to yourself? That's five messages in a row.

(09-12-2015 12:06 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Ever feel like your talking to yourself? That's five messages in a row.

hahahaha...

Actually you are correct, sad as that may be.

For almost the past year, I have been engaging in a dialogue with very few RVF bitcoin personas... almost like writing a journal.

Surely, I understand why even some bitcoin enthusiasts want to step away from bitcoin for a while and just let their investment sit (especially if their BTC portfolio is in the red). Yes, the performance of BTC has been quite dismal in the past about 20 months.

Surely, during the past 20 months some guys may have gotten luck and may have been able to make some money; however, likely the large majority who were making money during that time were either those who had cashed out from having had bought below $200 or those who were real big players who were manipulating the market.... Others who made money were likely exceptions rather than the rule.

Actually, part of the frustration has been that there have been several times in which guys (including myself) jumped in with quite a bit of vigor and asserted that we had reached the bottom... it seems that I mostly started asserting that around the $600 price point, and I continued to assert that as the price went down....

Even though I never really proclaimed to know the direction of the BTC market, implied in my actions (buying vigorously as the price was going down) was that I continued to expect that BTC prices would be going up...

My conduct continues in recent months in the same direction.

In recent days, I engaged in some continued reassessment of my BTC portfolio, and I verified that about 60% of my BTC portfolio was purchased prior to October 2014 - that is mostly between November 2013 and September 2014. That portion of my BTC portfolio was largely acquiring various bitcoins in price territories well above $400 per BTC.

The currently, about 40% of my BTC portfolio that was purchased since October 2014 has been almost exclusively acquired under the $400 price point.

I also had some non-BTC surprise business situations that caused me to largely be unable to invest in BTC for a little more 3 months between parts of January through April of this year. For some of that period, I became frustrated because I had been thinking that I was going to lose some of my ability to acquire more BTC for an extended period; however, by May of this year, I had largely resolved the worst aspects of my own personal tight finances to be able to continue to acquire BTC.

Because of some of my recent review of my total BTC investments, I have engaged in some reconsiderations of sections of my BTC portfolio to even conceptualize portions of my BTC portfolio in ways that will allow me to change some of my buy and sell strategies.... and so far I have NOT done much of any selling.

As I posted earlier, BTC has been largely floating between $200 and $290 throughout this year, and some of the recent volume on various exchanges seem to suggest that BTC prices will NOT stay in the $200 to $290 price range for another 8 months.

Interesting times ahead, it seems, NO?

Actually, my research and buying behavior has caused a few of my acquaintances to dabble somewhat in BTC... in about the past, 6 months, my GF has accumulated about 17 BTC at an average price of $230. I have attempted to advise her regarding the management of her BTC portfolio, and as many of us understand, girls can act a bit passive aggressive, and sometimes do NOT really want to create any kind of solid plan.. but instead act based on their "feelings."

At one point she disclosed that her plan was to sell some of her BTC when the price got to $350.. however, in recent times, she has been acting a bit more anxious, especially since she had some car maintenance expenses and was feeling somewhat stressed about some of her cash flow matters.

I think my mom has been feeling some additional jitters regarding BTC prices. I got her investing a bit before my GF, so her average price per BTC seems to be a bit higher than my GF's ... but NOT even my mom will disclose some of her particulars.... and in that regard, it can be quite understandable why some guys do NOT want to post about BTC, because it can be quite uncomfortable to be in the red on any investment and to be quite frustrating when we witness ongoing downward price momentum.... And, whenever we begin to believe that the price is going to recover, we experience another downward movement (for reasons that seem to be somewhat disconnected from actual BTC fundamentals).

Why are getting friends/family to invest in btc? horrible idea...

(09-13-2015 06:08 PM)Alche Wrote:  Why are getting friends/family to invest in btc? horrible idea...

I put the question to you, what is so horrible about the idea about presenting bitcoin information to friends/family that ultimately and likely causes them to "invest in BTC"?

Yes, the past 22 months have been downwardly trending in BTC prices;however, that does NOT mean that the next 5-22 months are going to be the same or even similar.

In my thinking, it is good to educate people in your circle about your activities, passions and things that you know; however, ultimately with any investment, the choice remains the other person's about how or the extent to which they are going to respond.


And, you? Do you share your activities, knowledge or investments with family and friends? or do you have some other preferred method of interacting with people in your circle of potential influence?


By the way, I also share aspects of my diet and life style with people in my social circle; however, some audiences would NOT be appropriate for sharing some topics and sometimes the level of sharing will depend in part upon the level of their interest and receptivity to the topic... so any kind of presentation of any topic, in my understanding of social interaction, will be tailored somewhat to the audience... .I am NOT a preacher... show the water, and it is the other person's choice about whether to drink... .

A couple of weeks ago, I did suspect that there would be another test of $200 or even attempts to drive BTC prices below $200; however, after BTC prices of the last couple weeks approached $247, then it became a bit more doubtful that there would be enough downward pressure generated in order to be able to achieve such a price point, even going below $220...

Currently, as I type, even though there seems to be dumping and breaking BTC prices down to $224, one must continue to wonder the extent to which coins can be dumped and how low BTC prices can decline with such dumping efforts?

Currently, Stamp seems to be leading the dump, and even BTCe prices remain higher than Stamp's prices, which is an anomaly that seems to occur from time to time, when one exchange is potentially in a disbalance before it catches up to the other exchange.

If BTC prices break below $220, then is $210 possible, and then does breaking $200 become possible?

It seems that there are a lot of additional buyers that come into play in the $220 to $200 price territories...

But as many of us likely realize, dumping becomes more of a reality on the weekends because it is much easier to quickly move BTC around as compared with getting fiat onto various exchanges (in the event that fiat is NOT in the reserves on the various exchanges).

There are even a lot of buyers in the $230 to $250 price territories that can be seen by the volume over the past few weeks. I never really know what to think exactly regarding the direction of price (even while dumping is occurring without any real apparent news as a driving point), except that I have been attempting to keep buying as the price is dipping. Though can be impossible to know how to catch any bottom, exactly or to have Fiat left by the time prices go to their lowest point in the dumping cycle.

I'm hesitating at this point to buy more. But I somehow have a positive feeling about it coming up

(09-15-2015 08:32 AM)Rawmeo Wrote:  I'm hesitating at this point to buy more. But I somehow have a positive feeling about it coming up

What has been your bitcoin buying or selling strategy so far? How long have you been in it? I take it, from your comment that you have accumulated some BTC. Do you have an investment strategy regarding other assets, etc? So what i mean, if you are NOT putting a percentage of your investment dollars (Canadian?) in BTC, then what would you invest in, in place of BTC?

Surely, it is possible for BTC prices to continue to float largely between $220 and $290 for the upcoming 8 months (reflecting the previous 8 months)... but I am probably with you to some extent that it seems that it is going to be difficult to continue to keep prices down in this range.... Volume seems to have picked up pretty well in the past 3-4 weeks - but that volume may or may NOT be sustainable... it continues to be a bit of a wait and see, so it seems.

In times like these, it does kinda feel like speaking in a vacuum here.... hahahahaha

$226 as I type... and generally flat overall for about the past month, although there has been some volatility contained within that period.. which caused me to believe that we could have one more test of $200..

Overall, though for about the past month, trade volume, in this price range, has been a bit higher than the average of the past year or so.

I'm curious to hear your guys forecasts for BTC prices in the next 6 months, year, 3 years and 5 years. I was really into bitcoin a while back and was making some okay money trading on the swings. I also was very optimistic about the long term prospects of bitcoin and was also loading up on the dips.

It seems all the hype surrounding Bitcoin has died down and honestly I think we need the mainstream for prices to rise significantly. For

Ia while big companies were comming out sayin they were now accepting bitcoin but I think it was more a PR ploy than any real support for Bitcoin. BTC was in the news everyday and companies like overstock or whoever else basically knew if they said they accepted bitcoins they'd get front page headlines for a few days. I doubt many actually planned to conduct a significant amount of business in Bitcoin or even really support it or care.

I have considered accepting bitcoin in my business as I'm considered a high risk to merchant processors but there's so few people who use and understand bitcoin it's not a realistic goal. I had thought about getting my regular customers to signup for coinbase accounts but it takes a while for their coins to clear, etc. People don't want to plan a week ahead to make a purchase with me.

I think it would be great if after ebay and paypal officially split maybe bitcoin gets introduced as a payment option but honestly ebay wants control over your money and chargebacks and thats not possible with bitcoin so I doubt it will happen.

Honestly for the next year I don't plan on following bitcoin that closely. It's not swinging enough to interest me to trade on the swings and I don't really see any dramatic upside in the near future to warrant stocking up at current time.

(08-17-2015 03:41 PM)SunW Wrote:  Emerging markets have entered a bear market, the CRB index is falling to 10+ year lows, rental units in many places are in high demand, along with a multitude of other factors right now. The good news is that these will present all of us with buying opportunities of a lifetime.

The Fed didn't raise interest rates and so far, markets have reacted negatively. Two ways bubbles can pop: interest rate increases, or collapse on their own size (even if there is low interest rates, too much principal owed can create a run). We might be seeing the second right now, if the market is reacting negatively to rates held low. The biggest disaster for the Fed is that if they do try QE4 and the market falls, they've completely lost control. In other words, they are in trouble right now and they know it - either decision could create more problems.

For bitcoin, we might see a price squeeze in the next six months, where prices fall, then later bounce to where they started, depending on if people need principal for their balance sheet. Anyone with a strong cash cushion and multiple sources of income will do well and might have opportunities to snap up some cheap commodities and bitcoin. I don't know how I missed this last year, but I thought this was interesting.

In 5 years btc will be around $50 is my prediction. 6months it will be around $210 but will have dipped below 200 for the first time.

(09-22-2015 09:05 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  I'm curious to hear your guys forecasts for BTC prices in the next 6 months, year, 3 years and 5 years. I was really into bitcoin a while back and was making some okay money trading on the swings. I also was very optimistic about the long term prospects of bitcoin and was also loading up on the dips.

Since I post so much within this thread, guys here probably recognize that I am generally fairly bullish on bitcoin, and I have invested accordingly. At the same time, I do NOT really frequently get into the weeds regarding specific predictions, as you have requested.

jamaicabound, you should also make your prediction too, if you are asking others to attempt such.

Here's my roughshod, best guess based on my current knowledge and expectations:

6 months -
More likely than NOT, BTC will move upwardly out of the $220 to $290 range (where it has been in the last 9 months). It is possible that BTC will experiences one or two more dips below $220 during this period and also possibly going below $200, as well.
less than $100 < 5 % chance
$100 to $200 <10% chance
$200 to $300 45-50% chance
$300 to $400 20-25% chance
$400+ <10% chance


1 year -
less than $100 < 2 % chance
$100 to $200 10-15% chance
$200 to $300 15-20% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000+ 30-35% chance
$1000+ <5% chance

3 years -
less than $100 < 2 % chance
$100 to $200 <5% chance
$200 to $300 about 10% chance
$300 to $500 25-35% chance
$500 to $1000 25-35% chance
$1000 to $5000 10-15% chance
$5000+ <5% chance


5 years -
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

Personally, I'm still waiting until consensus is reached to increase the block size to invest more. Bitcoin seriously needs a technical upgrade, if it wants to see the next big growth wave, imo. When this happens, and I think it's inevitable, it'll be some volatile times, as miners switch over to the new hardware requirements, expecting some panic. So, I have some cash set aside to buy in at the dips when this happens. I look forward to the day the first increased block is entered into the blockchain. As it currently is, Bitcoin is not very scalable, I think it's 4-5 transactions per second supported, very small amount; we've already seen the blockchain get clogged up recently, such as during the Greek crisis, and taking long time for transactions to confirm. It's not capable of supporting even remotely close the size of transactions as VISA, for example. I think it's becoming apparent that at its current state, Bitcoin can't support mainstream use even if there was demand for it. So where will it grow? Of course if there's a major economic crisis, it'll gain demand as usual, so that's why I'll always have some set aside in my portfolio. I mean this is indestructible currency/commodity stuff, fixed in supply, in some ways, I have more faith in it's ability to withstand any large financial shocks that may come. The block size increase is the best opportunity for scalability, but it's still not guaranteed to work. My guess is until we see significant technical improvements in scalability, Bitcoin won't rise too high. In a way I think it'd be hitting a dead end. It just needs to be more scalable, or it's running the risk of getting beat by something faster, black swan effect or something, or it may just lose its momentum and significance altogether if this problem can't be solved. Think polaroid, been around for decades, but with advent of digital cameras, completely got wiped out; or think Blockbuster. Again, I think the block size increase is inevitable in one way or another. How much will it improve scalability, I'm not sure, but I think it's a step in the right direction. The Bitcoin Core team needs to get better at coming up with consensus, or we'll be seeing some forks down the road, which isn't so bad actually, imo. When will the block size be increased? Not sure, but I'll be looking for these fundamentals to buy in more. Bitcoin XT (recent proposal to increase block size) apparently is not widely adopted, so something else will have to budge.

Personally, I already have a stake in Bitcoin, and will wait until we have an increased block size to buy in more, or some major improvement in scalability. This could take a long time for consensus to be reached. Of course, if there's an economic crisis, Bitcoin is good to hold no matter what, so I'm still holding on to my portfolio and will plan to long term. Also, I'm closely monitoring some other crypto developments such as Ethereum, or any other decentralized payment network that can support higher number of transactions per second while maintaining a fair distribution scheme.